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Tropical Weather Tracking. Member of @storm_trackX
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Peak Intensity at Landfall?
#tropics
#Hurricaneldalia
Category 3-125-130MPH
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Category 4-145-150MPH
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#hurricaneberyl
is fighting the shear so hard that more storms have fired on Beryl's Northwest side to protect its core from the shear
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If we see an Eyewall replacement cycle occurs overnight tonight, then its bad news
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@GuntherEagleman
@EdKrassen
if you seen the footage, Capital Police held the doors open there's no denying they were literally let in and escorted in
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Call me crazy or nuts all you want but It looks like this is undergoing Rapid intensification! Satellite of Tropical Storm Beryl
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GFS Fantasy Land, I'm just laughing so hard right now. This isn't happening in 75 Knot wind shear
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Max Risk for Saturday, December 10th?
Slight
59
Enhanced
167
Moderate
106
14
3
22
@ryanhallyall
@ryanhallyall
being part of your amazing weather community by being a stream/video viewer its truly amazing what you do for other people.
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My thoughts on today: HRRR model overdid the morning convection issue there was such little morning convection, that it played no role in today's setup
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@SamPingKY
@WX4TVS
@ryanhallyall
and his team should never ever be disrespected he call tornadoes 1-4 minutes before a warning is issued on it. I been watching him do it for 2-3 years now consistently. That saves lives, advanced lead time matters when saving lives
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GFS 06z: Hinting at potential tropical development between June 15th-16th in the Caribbean. i'm tweeting this to let people know. Heads Up!!!
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My Personal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:
Named Storms-25+
Hurricanes-13-17
Major Hurricanes-9-10
#tropics
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Final Tally of Talib Censure Vote:
Yea-234
Nay-188
Present-4
22 Democrats voted with Republicans to censure Rashida TLAIB
#Tlaib
#CensureTiaib
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@JaydonShaw2
what weather Twitter needs to understand is that an EF rating is just a number. what affected people experienced during the Rolling Forks, Mississippi Tornado changed their lives forever. that was a violent tornado period no matter the rating.
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As we begin the first couple weeks of July, A huge SAL outbreak (Sarahan Air Layer) comes off the coast of Africa and into the MDR creating dry air conditions from SAL
#tropicswx
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@mysterybluemoon
@PicturesFoIder
She was tased for kicking the officer, That's assault on a law enforcement officer
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@CourtTV
the prosecution made a great closing argument which makes me believe the jury is coming back with GUILTY of First Degree Murder. Now we all wait on the State's rebuttal argument
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00z UKMET model dewpoint map: Same as the 18z GFS Model, 76 Degree Temperatures/70 Degree dewpoints.
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Hurricane Beryl is exploding like crazy tonight! there is no other way to describe this right now!
#BERYL
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wow, that mesoscale discussion saying that a tornado watch is likely says the Capping inversion in the region has now mostly eroded, allowing for convective development within the next 2 hours. for more information refer to MCD
#0443
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Invest 93L intensity at Landfall in Florida?
#tropicswx
Doesn't Develop
4
Tropical Depression/Storm
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Category 1-2 Hurricane
73
Category 3+ Hurricane
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@MaxArcherWX
@BrandonCopicWx
an Intense tornado hit Louin, Mississippi Vince and local responders are doing search and rescue currently.
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@AnubizzzBurner
@Crazycars811
@JaydonShawwx
no cloud cover means more instability, no cloud cover means rapid quick destabilization Today's gonna be really bad
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I been tropical tracking for a while now and yes there has been storms that underwent rapid intensification but not to the degree Beryl did, Hurricane Otis in the Eastern Pacific last year.
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Is this attempting an Eyewall replacement cycle? eye appears to be shrinking
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Carribbean System before the end of Hurricane Season? 00z GFS
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#hurricaneberyl
refusing to weaken despite being in 30-knot shear for most of the day in fact There is a case to be made that its intensifying again! Robust Hurricane ongoing right now
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18Z ICON starting to hint at Homegrown development in the Gulf of Mexico. nothing is certain yet but I will be watching this very closely.
#Tropicswx
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Waiting on the 00z Model runs before a full thread analyzing the April 1st Severe Setup
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Thanks to all the Law enforcement involved in capturing the prisoner. We now know that the escaped prisoner has entered the US Illegally from Puerto Rico. That being said, its very important to secure our southern border!
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Today Marks the beginning of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The time to be prepared is right now!!!!!
#tropics
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To the House Republicans who are strongly opposing Jim Jordan as Speaker here's what I have to say: if you vote for Hakeem Jefferies as Speaker then you need to be removed from the House Republican Conference. End of Story
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#wxtwitter
so with the trends of both the HRRR and NAM Models with a decent chance of tornado probablities getting upgraded, What's the new SPC day1 outlook for tomorrow?
Enhanced
61
Moderate
21
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Very concerned about the wording in the latest day 2 outlook by SPC. "There is some chance for more discrete updrafts as Reintensification of the line begins"
#severewx
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Happy May 15th and the beginning of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st.
#Tropics
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Absolute beast of a tropical system! really remarkable visuals on satellite
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Man another day of an Overperforming 5% Tornado Risk hoping the areas hit by tornadoes tonight are able to recover
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@CraigCaplan
This is how Jordan secures the speaker's gavel, voting present lowers the 217 vote threshold he needs to win
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@weathermannick1
Ryan Hall Ya'll and max velocity when one isn't live i typically watch the other
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I hear people already calling this event a bust but here's a newsflash This severe threat isn't supposed to be a daytime threat but rather an overnight severe threat. its very premature to call bust at this stage
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93L is just going to meander over warm waters til the ridge builds in, leading to rapid intensification. not a good situation
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@wiay204
@NEnewDealfan002
The resolution of expulsion for Rep. George Santos (R-NY) was formally introduced and debated on the House Floor after the debate House went into recess subject to the call of the chair, Floor votes in the House expected at 6:30 PM eastern.
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anyone know why the NC cell is tornado warned from KRAX (Raleigh, NC), It looks like all outflow winds? I'm confused
#NCwx
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to those affected by the Texas Tornado tonight my thoughts are with your community and to those who lost loved ones to the tornado tonight my prayers are with you and your community as the community heals. The Damage Photos i seen tonight are terrifying.
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Wanna clarify some things about tonight's significant severe risk of seeing too many "bust" posts: 1. The Event event hasn't begun yet, ramps up at midnight and into the overnight hours. 2. Environment becomes more unstable as night goes on.
#severeweather
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Will the Month of May be active for Severe weather?
#wxtwitter
Active May Severe Weather
54
Quiet May Severe Weather
27
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Just a Minor Change with the 11:30 AM Central SPC outlook: Tornado and hail risk remain the same, now we have a 30% Hatched wind risk
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Here are my thoughts on tomorrow's setup with a very potent environment: Those in the Enhanced/Moderate risk areas need to have multiple ways to get watches/warnings. Remember our severe threat tomorrow is nocturnal meaning after dark. Significant threats.
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@lion_politics
TRUMP BROKE FEDERAL LAW and committed federal crimes, now he has to face the consequences of his actions.
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Observed Tornado Warning for Lawerence and Dade Counties in Missouri til 11 PM Central Time
Hazard: Damaging Tornado and Tennis Ball sized Hail
Source: Weather Spotters Confirmed Tornado
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@mattgaetz
@JayJ228
@mattgaetz
i was in the space last night and i'm with you every step of the way on the motion to vacate the chair.
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SPC says in the latest day 1 outlook at 8 am "A Hail-driven Moderate risk may become necessary if mesoscale trends and post-12z Guidance become better focused on timing/density
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The Tropical Wave Train continues! So Far we have Tropical Storm Bret, Invest 93L, and another tropical wave lurking off the Africa Coast. Atlantic is brewing with activity!
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Clearwater, FL: Head to your tornado-safe spot now! Classic supercell offshore with well-defined hook and developing mesocyclone
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#HurricaneSeason
: I feel strongly about how this hurricane season plays out. Shear decreasing across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Yes we're in a El Nino season but those SST anamoly in the Atlantic catch my eyes. we're in a for a rough hurricane season!!
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The longer this manhunt drags on without the capture of
#DaneloCavalcante
i'm becoming more increasingly concerned that Danelo Cavalcante has escaped the initial perimeter law enforcement has set up.
#DaneloCavalcante
#Manhunt
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My 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast will be released on March 31st with seasonal forecast updates during June, July, and August. An end-of-season wrap-up/review after the season. All signs point to an extremely active Atlantic in the latest data.
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This is satellite imagery of invest 95L. This thing is blowing up! I wouldn't be surprised to see it designated as a Tropical depression at 5 p.m. Eastern!
#Tropicswx
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Good Afternoon i wanna speak briefly on Hurricane Lidia in the eastern Pacific Basin: I surely didn't expect Hurricane Lidia to achieve Category 3 Status but it happened. This is now the 6th Major Hurricane in the 2023 Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
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@CourtTV
Life in Prison without the Possibility of Parole that's what justice is, He's a cold-blooded Monster Killer
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I know this is far out still but take notice of the trough shape. Just looks interesting
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#Tropicswx
My 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions:
Named Storms: 15
Hurricanes:7
Major Hurricanes:3
Reasoning: the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above average and developing El Nino
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#wxtwitter
When the new day1 outlook drops later on today for Thursday's severe event, Enhanced risk or Moderate risk?
Enhanced Risk
29
Moderate Risk
30
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updated 2023 atlantic hurricane prediction as of June 2023:
Named Storms:16-20
Hurricanes:9
Major Hurricanes:4
Reasoning: Record-Warm Atlantic Battling El Nino
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Prediction on Friday's Severe Risk?
Slight
7
Enhanced
30
Moderate
8
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Good Morning all and Happy Good Friday. I have big time concerns for the severe setup for Monday, April 1st as the Storm Prediction center issued a day 4 30% Severe risk (Enhanced Risk)
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A few things that have me on the fence about this setup going to a Moderate Risk: 1. Morning Convection Potential. 2. Instability/Daytime Heating loss at Night. 3. Storm Mode. Overall, a decent setup that can go robust if things line up right
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@isabelle_wts
30% upgrade on day 4, most likely happens I can't think of a reason why it stays as a 15%
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CMC Model 12z and 00z have a concerning look for potential development in the Western Atlantic. if trends continue in the wrong direction, could get AOI soon.
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Good evening all. I have seen enough of this " El Nino talk" The 30-day SOI is now -8.71 with the 90-day SOI now at -6.64. I'm sensing an El Nino Bust. the 90-day SOI of -6.64 is nowhere near El Nino Territory
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@lividwx
@JaydonShawwx
Note to all in this amazing conversation: Take the HRRR model 48 hours out from an event with a grain of salt. like isn't amazing the Nam 3km CONUS model can nail the plains setups better than the HRRR that's very interesting
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06z ICON: ICON Model is doing the same thing as the Euro Model in terms of the 200MB Wind Shear in the Atlantic. 200MB Shear is decreasing in the Atlantic on both models (Euro and ICON) interesting how the Atlantic season plays out as a result.
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My thoughts and prayers are with the people of Hendersonville, TN tonight and for the holiday season as the city now moves on to the recovery phase from this catastrophic tornado.
#PrayersforHendersonville
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Good Morning from Southeast Wisconsin ahead of a dangerous severe threat today. Currently temperatures of 56 degrees and a dewpoint of 54 with dense fog and clouds.
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Satellite Imagery of Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico. Convection continues to blow up. This is Outstanding Imagery!
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