Market Internals
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It's time to really pay attention here, if you didn't already, read this QT... Although $COPPER hasn't directly broken the 4.05 yet, it's getting pretty close & now returning to the lows, the G/C ratio continues ripping, and we now have closed RVOL above the 65 line on the 1W RSI, slide {1} shows the last two times this happened after a 10Y3M Inversion [08 & 2020 crash,] we've also got IEI/HYG breaking out {2}, VSR above the 3W 50 line after being under it since JAN 2023, and $DBC likely about to crack the 21.70. Going to be brutally honest with you guys, as much as I'm hoping for another rip up 1D rally as I'm 2/3 long $QQQ 3X Lev as well as Biotech / BTC, this is looking VERY bad, even with all the spreads I watch, all the preparation and precaution I've took, and the constant yapping about longing bonds during the APR lows, I still wasn't even prepared for this, 60% chance we're currently crashing immediately, the remaining 40% is we find a local bottom, possibly rally into the 1D-3D and then crash thereafter, Bonds continues to remain the mother of all trades, the OTMs already up 500%, and will likely see a minimum of 1,500% before any pullback if we ARE currently crashing here. $TLT $TNX $SPY $VIX $IWM $BTC $US30Y
I also want to bring attention to this as to why I put great emphasis on being VERY strict on your stop loss here & getting out of longs if deviations run it back down to lows or even just 2% under entry. {1} From 10Y3M inversion to Recession we're @ a record 638 Days & counting, blowing 08s record out the water. {2} My CNY spreads have been bearish & have broken the lows for a long duration as well, it hasn't been a clear break since I tweeted it in APR as it ran it back up a bit, but has since then consolidated and is looking gradually more weak again with an undertest and @ the moment rejection off the previous "floor." {3} GOLD/COPPER is attempting a break out right now, but COPPER is currently @ it's 2W YEQ Trend Support after a large drop, there's a possibility it can stall a bit here, allowing for another run to the highs for Risk [NQ, SPX, ...] BUT, if the 4.05 on $COPPER breaks down that's a good confirmation & argument for a crash happening immediately, as the spread will be engulfing out of the wedge, keep an eye on 4.05 COPPER. GOLD/COPPER spread breaking out of its wedge after a 10Y3M inversion is ominous, as shown here. {IN QUOTED TWEET} $DBC also showing a possibility of again either retesting its current floor OR finally snapping those lows, another level break to watch out for that has a high probability of determining whether an immediate crash is happening or not, $DBC back under $22 is very concerning, but for full confirmation a break of 21.70. All of these along with a 1W $RVOL ABOVE 60 RSI spells disaster in all previous cases, any longs I take on risk will be immediate cuts if things start to go wrong, including the Biotech [-10% risk BHVN,] w/ damage control @ -5% MAX on 3X LEV. Any losses will be mitigated by the upcoming blast up we're about to have on $TLT into the $108-115, as mentioned multiple times I'm very heavy on bonds after calling out @ the lows in APR, it's not a matter of IF, but WHEN. {4} And it seems the "WHEN" should be very soon, as the US03MY continues to tread lower breaking down what seems to be a 14 MONTH consolidation, depicted here is the 3W AMA breakdowns on US03MY after these prolonged consolidations, and $TLT alongside it, a new 3W candle begins on the 29th, if this confirms, we're very close to finally breaking through $95 $TLT and into the 100s to reach the minimum target of 108-115. To reiterate, this isn't an immediate call for anything as of this moment, only a warning to make sure if you're attempting long on these dips here, don't let the move go against you, keep a very tight stop, obey your rules, and watch for these 3 red flags I have listed; 1. $COPPER 4.05 Breakdown confirming the GOLD/COPPER breakout. 2. $DBC breakdown $22-21.70 confirming immediate panic cuts in rates. 3. $RVOL 1W ABOVE 60 RSI confirming panic & risk for intense selling pressure. $QQQ $SPY $VIX $DXY $IWM $DJI $BTC
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@autogynefiles if anyone determines they will be a “burnt out disappointment” for the remainder of their life then they materialized that reality, their soul is already dead, everyone is “gifted” when fresh, can you hold onto that “gift” = childlike wonder god gave you until death? Matthew 18:3
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@Lukealexxander Make sure the beef is never frozen, don’t eat ground beef, buy skirt steaks, fresh only, go local so you make sure you aren’t buying previously frozen beef, that tends to cause many people issues
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@ballsack698121 @ChadHeller5 @iwolfpapi @retirementkeys Yes, tagging Monthly support, I'm waiting for the 8HR on $TLT to resolve itself above 35 RSI line & the 8HR Purple YEQ before putting in large positions, it can certainly wick down hard here while it remains under 35 RSI for a final shakeout, also eying the 3D TLT/DXY
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@NotIzunia @knifeass People will clown your ideas but only you can see your own vision, shouldn’t shit on his own Father like that, that weird idea you think about could go a long fkn way and set you up for life in a right place/right time situation
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@theBroMan77 Nice! I’ve been busy with career, even though I’m not in the miners I’m pretty disappointed in how lackluster they are, IWM practically at new ATH and BTC 100K yet Mara can’t even get to half its $83 value when it wasn’t even worth 1/4 what it’s worth now, Needs rates down asap
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@primal_diet @jsjdjsjs26124 Where did Aaj say this last part about honey turning meat into fuel? I thought he only said this about lime/lemon
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@ChadHeller5 @iwolfpapi @retirementkeys Hey!! never left, always here scrolling, just don’t post when I get busy work wise and don’t have any strong opinions, since the 20150 NAS stop hit was good to switch long, 3D trends still remain bullish, waiting for TLT to put a solid 3D bottom like APR before posting it, soon!
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@iwolfpapi @retirementkeys Make a good resume showcasing character, especially for a job involving cold calling business', they want people with high energy, persistent, excellent communication and could take Ls, you having no experience is a +, clean slate, apply for ALL inside sales roles near you.
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@theBroMan77 @justin_hart Best ever, Anthony is the only other dude that remained the same since then, everyone else caved into the PC
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This is why I said I will not argue and generally don’t engage with people like you, I will make this final reply because I do feel bad for you and I see you’re in a tough negative thought loop right now, but you’re clearly unable to even realize it simply because you’re practically unconscious and unaware of yourself, the only reason you are here is because you’re trying to cope with your drug addiction and attempting to justify it by arguing on the internet & telling other people to get addicted alongside you, like I said, I’m ALREADY vital, I don’t need to read your studies or garbage rhetoric to put me on the same boat as you and everyone else who relies on coffee to GET BY through their day, keep your studies and talking points brother, all you do is repeat your “normie” thought loop to anyone that goes against your ray peat religion meanwhile you have no original critical thought and have only been copy and pasting normie studies the entire thread.
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Yea not here to argue because I really don’t care but your bean sludge nukes your adrenal glands, that energy you get is stress induced fake energy that spikes cortisol, any man that’s a big time coffee drinker who’s been drinking 1-3 cups a day for years is bald or balding bad, that’s because of the constant cortisol spike & that’s only one of the physical markers you can see with your own eyes from the outside, your hormone/energy levels are constantly getting zapped, and natural means of producing vitality and energy is now gone or weakening (which is why you’re balding,) it goes the same way as a man taking testosterone, his balls will shrink and his NATURAL T production will sink because the body is inherently lazy, if you could give it a reason to stop producing a hormone or energy naturally because you are able to outsource it elsewhere, it will stop exercising that part of the body! another example is the body will start making its own sugar via gluconeogenisis if someone were to go on KETO (keto is garbage) understanding that, if you are TRULY vital and healthy, you wouldn’t need to drink burnt bean sludge, for years I’ve gone though both mentally draining sales jobs and physically demanding labour jobs all without a single drop, you eat good, you don’t need it, plain and simple.
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