Mark Paul
@MarkVinPaul
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Assistant Prof of Econ @RutgersU @blousteinschool . PhD @UMassEcon . Member @cpluscp . Book THE ENDS OF FREEDOM @UChicagoPress out May 12 pre-order:
New Brunswick, NJ
Joined August 2013
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It's book launch day! 📚🎉
We've got countless books about the failures of neoliberalism, but few that put forth an affirmative vision of an economy of, for, & by the people.
So I wrote The Ends of Freedom. In the book I set out to do three things: 🧵
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I'm a Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies and proud signer and supporter of
@BernieSanders
' Green New Deal plan. We simply cannot wait. The climate crisis is here, and Bernie has shown that he understands the issues and will do what it takes to act immediately.
Joe Biden said not a single scientist supported my climate plan. Well, Joe, you’re wrong. Scientists agree: we need a Green New Deal and we need it now:
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Today, I feel compelled to say that I strongly support
@BernieSanders
and am confident that he will win the primary, and the Presidency of the United States.
First and foremost, I'm a scholar focused on inequality and the climate crisis in the United States. 1/7
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Worth remembering that when President Roosevelt established the Civil Works Administration the program was fully functional in about two months, employing over 4 million employees and reaching 8% of the labor force.
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As a Jew, I have to say that these two are real leaders. It takes courage to stand up and say what's hard. I'm deeply troubled by the alienation of the Palestinian people and the blanket support of the state of Israel despite atrocities.
Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) are facing criticism from fellow Democrats over statements in which they labeled Israel as an apartheid state and called for the U.S. to end funding to the nation, following a deadly attack by Hamas.
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Just got a new reason to fight like hell to rapidly slash emissions and save our planet from burning.
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Biden promised $2T in green spending (over 5 yrs) on the campaign trail. Most experts agree 3-5% of GDP/yr for 10 yrs is what's needed for decarbonization, which is closer to $1T/yr.
$52B is chump change. It's an insult. It's climate denialism.
We have no time to waste when it comes to making our infrastructure more resilient to a changing climate. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework invests $52 billion to strengthen our natural infrastructure — like coastlines and levees — and our physical infrastructure.
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Here's the carbon elephant curve. Fascinating to see that low- and middle-income grps in high income countries are reducing emissions, while the rich are dumping pollution into the atmosphere at an ever increasing rate.
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Economic history should be a required course for econ PhD students.
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"People don't eat in the long run—they eat every day."
The social worker Harry Hopkins who convinced Roosevelt to create the Civilian Works Administration (predecessor of WPA) in fall 1933.
They put 4 million people to work in 30 days.
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@maxberger
The first time I went on vacation w/ my in-laws they invited a dear friend of the family. He was an executive at Intuit. After 2 hrs I decided I couldn't hold my tongue and longer and laid into him. It felt great. The in-laws, however, were not impressed. They should have been!
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This, by
@MattBruenig
, is spot on. I'm incredibly privileged, yet I've lost my employer-based insurance 5 times now, and I'm only 30. It sucks every time. It's far worse for many others.
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In a job interview a few yrs back a senior economist told me it was a mistake to study power. "That's the realm of sociologists and political scientists" he said.
How does one understand the economy, especially distribution, w/out thinking about power? They don't.
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My home is fully electrified. I drive an EV. And I have enough solar to offset all my energy consumption. I have these nice things because of privilege. As a result, inflation in energy markets has no effect on me. I'm insulated. Let's pass policies to bring this to everyone.
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I’m in the
@TheProspect
explaining exactly why economists get it so wrong on rent control. Let’s remember, homeowners already have government sponsored rent control-it’s time to expand that right to all people.
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I’m sorry, but “friendships” between rich and poor is not the answer to poverty. Though it’s exactly the type of paper the NYT and liberals love.
People need well paying secure jobs, affordable housing, free medical care, child allowances, etc.
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Want to ease demand on oil? Make all public transit free. We can do it, and we can do it today!
Weekly ridership increased by 47% when Boston mayor
@wutrain
made 3 bus routes free.
We focus a LOT on federal climate policy, but so much can happen at City Hall that will determine our climate future. Great to see Boston taking the right steps.
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FDR during New Deal: I'm gonna employ 4 million people—8 percent of the labor force—directly w/ in 2 months at prevailing wages! DONE.
Biden: I'm gonna employ 150-200k workers total in my new CCC over 5 YEARS.
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Climate scientists: 3C would be hell on earth.
Economist: Eh, looks like it'll cause about the same damage as a mild recession. Nothing to worry about.
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FWIW, I'm an "expert" and I'm impressed by
@SenSanders
willingness to lay out a bold vision to decarbonize & improve living standards for ppl across the country
We can't solve this crisis w/out a major movement, and Bernie gets that better than anyone.
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So we pulled the trigger and bought 5 acres in the White Mountains of NH. We're now embarking on building a net-zero pre-fab home in a very cold region. Site work starts next week!
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Markets love the idea of a Biden presidency + R senate. Means tax cuts hold, regs are largely frozen, and neoliberal regime holds on foreign policy.
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Defunding the IRS is upward redistribution, plain and simple.
CBO says rescinding IRS funds would:
- result in fewer enforcement actions & a reduction in revenue collections
- decrease outlays by $1.4 billion and decrease revenues by $2.3 billion over the 2023–2033 period, resulting in a net ↑ in deficit of $900 million over that period
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Good morning. 93% of Americans want a
#JobGuarantee
. Nearly 9 in 10 Republicans are on board.
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The debt that matters
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Rampant inequality is literally tearing apart the social fabric of this country. Many tell us that this level of inequality is the price we pay to live in a "rich" society under capitalism.
But let's remember: inequality is a policy choice. There's nothing natural about it. 2/7
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There's no question that Congress needs to pass a major stimulus bill. But how big should it be? Well,
@adamshersh
& I answer that in a new
@Groundwork
paper. We estimate that Congress should spend upwards of $4.5 T to resuscitate the economy. THREAD 1/
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Nationalizing this industry in order to rapidly dismantling it while protecting workers, and destroying FF demand should be atop the list of any policymaker taking the climate crisis seriously.
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But Bernie knows that achieving true economic security will take far more than winning an election. It requires movement-building. And nobody in the Senate gets this better than Bernie, which is why groups like
@sunrisemvmt
,
@PplsAction
, &
@Dreamdefenders
have endorsed him. 4/7
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We can choose to build an economy and society that supports the many. One that ensure everyone has economic security. FDR talked about this in his 4 Freedoms and Economics Bill of Rights. This is precisely how
@BernieSanders
has defined his candidacy. 3/7
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Democrats are embracing McCarthyism. Everyone should be worried about it.
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The New Deal created the modern mortgage. But at the same time activist Catherine Bauer fought for "social housing." She argued land, construction, finance, & management of social housing should be "removed from the speculative market" and treated like a utility.
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We should have a public debate about this. $1B seems like too high for a hard income ceiling. FDR proposed what would today be about $425k. I'm not sure what the right number is - though $425k seems totally reasonable - but we should be talking about it.
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Everyone in the West Wing should instead read this
@Groundwork
paper which puts people at the center of the economy in estimating how much stimulus is needed. Our finding? The economy needs $2-3T on top of the $900B passed to bring back a healthy economy
Everyone in the West Wing is reading a Larry Summers op-ed being circulated among liberal policy wonks. Why? Summers put down on paper what many liberal wonks have been whispering about for weeks: That President Biden’s stimulus bill may be too big.
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I look forward to the day where we can all work together to save and strengthen our democracy. The stakes are high. It's not a time to be divided, but a time to come together. Join us. /fin
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Bernie also knows that to achieve economic security, & to live up to our right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, we must address the climate crisis. This too will take more than words. It'll take a movement ready to fight like our lives depend on it-cause they do 5/7
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I'm thrilled to announce that I'll be joining
@RutgersU
this fall as an Assistant Professor in the
@blousteinschool
of Planning and Public Policy. Couldn't be happier!
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Biggest drag in GDP is residential investment. In short, higher rates are crashing housing supply. That’s gonna out continued upward pressure on rent - causing 1) pain for the 50% of renters that already can’t afford to pay the bills and 2) fuel more inflation.
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I wonder if there'd be much appetitive for a progressive heterodox economics podcast. One that both teaches economics by covering some of the great thinkers and also connects to modern policy debates.
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@NPR
This is the typical neoliberal argument. It thinks of humans in one dimension - economic actors - and fails to recognize that we are complex beings with social relationships, i.e. community, that are vital to our well-being.
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Seems to me that if you want to be a central planner today, you should probably go work at BlackRock.
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@CNBC
"Alan Greenspan back from the dead to ensure more people suffer from debunked economic theories from the middle ages"
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in 1933 FDR created the Public Works of Art Project, employing thousands of artists to produce more than 15,000 pieces of public art displayed in public schools & libraries, orphanages, town squares, post offices, and many other places for the masses to enjoy.
Let's do it again
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I was asked to take a climate survey as an "expert" in environmental economics.
They ask me to estimate climate damages to GDP in 2220. LOL
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Isabella is totally right. But worth noting that "shrinking aggregate demand" is econ code-word for making folks too poor to buy the essentials they need.
CPI increase of 8.5% driven by fuel, food & shelter. Hiking rates aims to tackle problem by shrinking aggregate demand but demand for these essentials is pretty inelastic. More likely to create unemployment in US & debt crises in global south than to swiftly control inflation
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Here it is. Thrilled to announce that I'm writing a book for summer 2022! Time to talk about how economists and policymakers have stood in the way of building a truly free society, one in which all people have their basic rights. There is no freedom without economic freedom.
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Many of my friends and colleagues have chosen to support Sen Warren. Let me just say that I deeply respect her. She's brilliant. She's hardworking. And She's fighting the good fight. But Bernie and I share a vision for the future. 6/7
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What if we greatly simplified the tax code, made it actually progressive, and then simply provided public goods for free? Wild, right?
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Keynes thought it "curious" that economists assume opportunities for public investment to be extremely limited, yet opportunities for private investment to be essentially endless.
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Joan Robinson on Keynes: "He hated unemployment because it was stupid."
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Does the US have a plan to actually achieve our emissions reduction goals? In truth, as the Biden's approval of the Willow Project shows, no, not at all. In our new
@cpluscp
report, we investigate why we must pass policies to phase out the FF sector. 1/
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If folks want to know why CBO scores look so bad when it comes to public investment, then look no further. It's simple: assume public investment is only half as productive as private investment.
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UI benefits expiring on Labor Day is a cruel joke that only wealthy politicians could come up w/
NEW: We project that 7.5 million people will lose their unemployment benefits entirely when federal programs expire on Labor Day, including 4.2 million on PUA and 3.3 million on PEUC.
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The sexism targeted at
@StephanieKelton
and
@jeannasmialek
right now, and the racism + sexism directed at
@drlisadcook
is truly despicable. Economics has got to change. We have to hold ourselves and our colleagues accountable.
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Think "the market" is natural? Polanyi wants you to think just a bit about history
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Folks, we're gonna need to push the limits of the Fed and ensure Biden appoints a climate champions to replace Powell.
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In case you're wondering, the CBO estimates are RACIST AF. They think the "natural rate of unemployment" is 10% for black workers. It's mind boggling.
But don't just take our word for it, take the CBOs. The CBO estimates natural rates of unemployment for different demographic groups. The results are disgusting. The CBO bakes in racist assumptions, resulting in outrageous levels of unemployment for communities of color.
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"Let us be clear: Our economic reality is not mere circumstance; these are the result of policy choices." In 1944
#FDR
proposed an Economic Bill of Rights.
@SandyDarity
@DarrickHamilton
& I are updating that idea.
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This is the debt we've left the current and future generations. This is the debt that matters.
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“Transportation should be free,” she said. “It’s a basic need. It’s not a luxury.”
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This "scoring" of the Warren wealth plan done by
@Wharton
& reported by
@jimtankersley
is wrong on a number of levels
For 1, the assessment assumes that the money from a wealth tax go to pay down the debt. That is NOT what
@ewarren
has proposed.
THREAD
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CEO: We dictate prices
Economist: No, no you don't
CEO: We've been doing it for decades
Economist:
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When we met, we knew we'd be the perfect match for the zombie apocalypse. Turns our it's a global pandemic. In light of
#COVID
ー19, we've decided to cancel our wedding next weekend. While these decisions are hard, they're necessary to protect pub health.
#LoveInTheTimeofCorona
.
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PWBM is out with a new estimate claiming that BBB will increase gov debt & contract the economy. Nobody should trust these numbers. Not one bit. Why? The PWBM is riddled with holes and erroneous assumptions that drive fallacious results. Let's look under the hood. 1/n
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Unfortunately, I began experiencing miserable COVID symptoms over the weekend. Just got tested, and was informed afterwards that results would take 6-10 days!!!
Trump administration = failed state.
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Polanyi has a lot of great lines, but this one wins in my book: The "laissez-faire economy was the product of deliberate state action, subsequent restriction on laissez-faire started in a spontaneous way. Laissez-faire was planned; planning was not”
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Some professional news: I'll be heading to
@USC
next year to join the
@berggruenInst
for the 2021-2 academic year as a Fellow with their Future of Capitalism project! Couldn't be happier. LA here we come!
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🚨STRIKE at RUTGERS is ON!🚨
Join us in solidarity as we take to the streets and fight for the brilliant public school we all deserve. Everyone deserves a living wage and job security. ✊
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One bright spot:
@justicedems
&
@DemSocialists
had relatively good nights. They are the future.
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I do not think we economists have a good way to model just how bad a 2, 3, 4, or 5C world would be. We always think about the climate as just another input in the production function, but this misses the fact that a stable planet underlies everything.
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Good morning. Turns out most economists want to abolish public schools and use a private voucher system. Going back to bed.
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I wonder how many economists actually talk to unemployed people. More qualitative work would benefit the field, and our policy discourse, tremendously. One problem: qualitative work is not taken seriously by econ journals (or PhD advisors).
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*Half* of Americans are covered by rent control, and indeed many were able to LOWER their rent over these past few yrs w/ historically low interest rates. Remember, the 30 yr mortgage was created by the government out of whole cloth. It's renters we decided to leave behind
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We talk about the economy as if it holds power over society. We talk about the economy as if it holds power over our collective ability to deliver justice, economic security, and a safe, stable, and habitable planet for all.
We created the economy. We can restructure it.
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Wow. Jonathan Holloway, Prez of
@RutgersU
, threatens workers, noting a strike would be "unlawful" in NJ. Negotiations not going well.
This is a person who wrote his PhD under the famed labor historian David Montgomery. Guess the apple fell very far from the tree.
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As an economist, I endorse this message.
@peterjgowan
@MarkVinPaul
Yes, we can have
#HousingForAll
and a
#GreenNewDeal
. The question is not if we can afford it. The question is if we have the political courage. The voters are with us.
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Corporate profit margins are up, but profiteering isn't playing a role in inflation? Give me a break.
What Furman is missing is that this is a political economy story. Inflation is giving corporations an opportunity to increase profit margins. The data bear this out. 1/4
If you think corporate greed is playing a major role in the current inflation then you need to rethink a lot of your views.
1. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS. Fiscal stimulus is less effective than you thought because it will go more into prices/profits than quantities.
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This should be the story of today's economy. Turns out giving people money is good. Giving them jobs is good too. Who would thought.
Yellen: Food insecurity dropping 24 percent for families after Biden's Child Tax Credit "a profound economic and moral victory for the country"
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Economist: Rent control is the best way to destroy a city
Also economist: 30-yr mortgage (effectively rent control created and backed by the fed government) is the backbone of American wealth creation and crucial to macroeconomic stability.
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Washington repeatedly relies on estimates from macroeconomic policy as to the costs of legislation. But what if the “numbers” lawmakers rely on are wrong, and systematically so? That is: What if what the CBO says shouldn’t go? 1/n
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The anti-China rhetoric is not only dangerous, but often downright misleading. China is literally off the damn charts with how much renewables it's building.
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Better idea: environmental philanthropists buy up all the oil companies and dismantle them while guaranteeing workers pay, pension, and other benefits.
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Most estimates put our decarbonization needs in the 3-5% of GDP/yr if we are to limit warming to 1.5C. Biden's plan puts forth 1/yr for 10 yrs. That's just 20-33% of what's needed. That's unacceptable. There is no 🌏 B.
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Rent regulations keep tenants housed and rebalance unfair power dynamics between tenants and landlords. That's why I joined 30+ economists to call for federal tenant protections and rent regulations as a condition on federally-backed mortgage financing.
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How do Democrats win? They talk about, & deliver on, economic justice. The most popular policy is a job guarantee, a policy that would deliver true full employment. Sounds like candidates should be running on an Economic Bill of Rights if you ask me
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@Sen_JoeManchin
Overheating? We have millions upon millions of Americans out of work. We have tens of millions more in poverty employment. Wages are struggling to recover. WV is struggling. The real risks are slowing the recovery. Have we learned nothing from the Great Financial Crisis?
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The wealth Jeff Bezo has amassed is about 2x the size of Ethiopia's GDP, the 12th largest country in the world and home to about 115 million ppl. But we're OK w/ this system?
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I don't mind paying taxes, not one bit. But I HATE doing taxes. Maybe, just maybe, we should let the government do them for us.
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Seems like a great time to nationalization the FF sector and rapidly dismantle it!
This, coupled with major investments and proper worker adjustment policies that actually protect FF workers + communities are essential.
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@TheEconomist
This is patently false. But even if we had a hot economy that pushed inflation to 3-4%, so what? We've under shot the target for yrs. Time for a bit of 🔥.
Everyone in the West Wing should instead read this
@Groundwork
paper which puts people at the center of the economy in estimating how much stimulus is needed. Our finding? The economy needs $2-3T on top of the $900B passed to bring back a healthy economy
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The idea that low taxes and low public spending is associated with higher degrees of macroeconomic stability is one of the biggest lies ever told.
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When you cancel a wedding and have 400 beers and 100 bottles of wine to find a home for.
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I don't like telling people what to do, but ya'll should really read Polanyi: “Basically there are two solutions,” Polanyi wrote in 1935. “The extension of the democratic principle from politics to economics, or the abolition of the democratic ‘political sphere’ altogether.”
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The narrative that Biden has moved to "the left" on climate seems wrong to me.
Has he embraced bolden targets? Yes! Has he made important changes that'll benefit the economy & climate? You bet.
What he's doing here is adopting policies more in line w/ science.
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