Michael Heseltine
@MJHeseltine
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Post-Doc at University of Amsterdam ASCoR. PhD from American University. Student of Congress, elections, and DC-area brunch menus. 🇬🇧
Joined April 2009
New publication🚨I examine Donald Trump's endorsements in congressional races while in and out of office (2018-2022). Endorsed candidates receive a small vote penalty overall. Trump backed more safe candidates and allies (election deniers) in 2022.
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🚨 New at AJPS w/ @HBarnehl and @mwojcieszak. Do partisans change news consumption based on daily sentiment about their team? Dems read more on bad days for Republicans and less on bad days for Dems. Reps read more conservative news on negative days for Rs
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@cowburn86 @dmariethomsen We also don't have any answer for the Chip Roy's of the world. Ted Cruz's chief of staff obviously has way more experience for congress than a local board of education member. Executive branch officials too, even if they're appointed
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@asdurso Did you relabel or relevel a factor and spell one of the factor levels wrong? That's usually my issue when this happens.
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RT @hadiaskari67: New Preprint 🚨: Read our new paper: where we try to answer the question: Can we leverage LLMs and…
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RT @BernhardClemm: Thanks to @MJHeseltine for the vision & leadership on this project! LLMs obviously come with many issues – but there is…
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RT @Res_Pol: This paper tests the performance of GPT4 in text coding across a range of common political science coding tasks in 4 languages…
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The good news is that it it still possible to depolarize elite communications in the United States. The bad news is that this reduction is short lived and that pandemics are not exactly a sustainable means of reducing political tensions in the US.
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@QrdKnpfr Thanks Curd! Happy to see it out in the world. You can take some credit for teaching me everything I know about pol comm though
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@aaroe_lene Robertson or Bakshy scores. However, for local content, any sharing based measure comes with the caveat that it is difficult to disentangle whether whether sharing reflects the lean of the outlet or just reflects the lean of the people that happen to live in the region.
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🚨New working paper! With @BernhardClemm, across tasks and languages, we test the viablility of LLMs like GPT-4 to replace human coders for machine learning training data, with mostly strong results! We also offer a suggested pipeline for researchers.
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Write-up of my latest paper by @pbump in the Washington Post. Trump really focused his endorsements on the primaries in 2022 which is where his involvement has the potential to make a positive impact. In the generals, not so much...
New analysis suggests that Trump's endorsements from 2018 to 2022 boosted Republicans 14 points in primaries — and cost them 1.5 points in the general.
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