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Just the map of 🇺🇦/ LDPR border on the Donbas before the war.
There were only Volnovakha and Popasna along the whole front that could be considered as good defended positions, with uphill defense. Both of them were targeted at the first days of war. ⬇️
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🇷🇺 defense is crumbling.
Waiting for any visual approval.
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Sheds and high quality decoys in Kryvyi Rih.
Maybe things aren't that bad.
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22km deep FPV strike, with real range closer to 30km
Classic Drones-Artillery-EW game
@AndrewPerpetua
Map
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Russians deployed pontoon bridge over the Seim river in the "weird" location, but it's the best possible place to establish the crossing
Narrow place, established dirt road avoiding the ponds and streams, with some trees on the northern side of the river with the main road nearby
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Ukraine has already received ATACMS
F16 will come next
And permission to attack russian territory will follow
What’s next?
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🇺🇦 is slowly progressing on Svatove front.
The main target is P07 - P66 roads the ultimate goal control over P66 at Nyznia Duvanka.
With fall of Kuzemivka P07 should be in full control, P66 is 2 settlements away from this, that might be captured already
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Russian fortifications north of Vovchansk - cemetery of excavators.
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- S300 launched at Kharkiv
- 8 missiles
- all the launches have failed, some explode, some failed down.
- none left russia
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After the retreat from Kherson 🇷🇺 got into troubles, jammed between the BS and the Dnipro river, with a 150km long highly vulnerable border in the river delta.
🇺🇦 has full fire control over the North Crimean Canal peninsula, with a flat terrain and channels along the coast.
🇺🇦 would be able to reach to Crimea with HIMARS from the Kherson ring road.
That would force 🇷🇺 to withdrew from Chaplynka to avoid repeat of Chornobaivka movie.
Artillery range advantage should help 🇺🇦 to secure the area for MLRS.
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Just Ukraine went in Kursk offense, Nordstream investigation was published.
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As there was the official confirmation of AFU advance around and in Bakhmut there is a possibility that a lot of RAF troops may and in POW lists.
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Pryyutne has fallen first.
There are couple of scenarios for AFU:
Capture as much high ground as possible before the push or try to target some settlements.
There is no real need to push at Staromayorske because RAF can may leave it without a fight, so Remivka could be next.
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What could be expected from 🇺🇦 in the area?
Kinburn Spit - the place where 🇷🇺 launches their S300, now it's easier to supply by boats than by ground. 🇺🇦 is capable to sustain isolated footholds.
The whole river bank is accessible for recon units.
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Rybar reports about massive drone attack on Crimea.
This will not be officially reported or admitted by Ukraine, but it's incredibly important.
Ukraine can get useful information about UAVs capabilities and weaknesses as well as map russian positions and actions.
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5x Msta-S howitzers were destroyed near Yalynske.
Only 12 km of the frontline probably too close for the coverage, so should be a counter artillery unit that lost the duel.
Highlands of Nadiine and Zaporizke are on the edge of the howitzer range to cover the front.
All 5 destroyed Russian Msta-S in one pic.
Number 1 and 2 are at:
47°38'56.15"N, 36°56'38.25"E
Number 3, 4 and 5 are at:
47°39'43.96"N, 36°56'36.45"E
#Ukraine
#Counteroffensive
#Donetsk
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Soon this would be present like:
Destroyed AFU crossing over the Dnipro.
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Big if true
AFU heven’t reached russians main defense lines but forced russia to deploy their reserves to stop the development.
Now it's time to expect the attack elsewhere.
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While 🇷🇺 defending Lyman in all cost, pumping (not any more) it with the troops
🇺🇦 just bypassed the area by wider circle moving towards Zherebts river to close out all the 🇷🇺 defense and cut off P66 north of Kreminna.
Another >500km2 bite for 🇺🇦, that may dismantle 🇷🇺 defense.
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Ukraine should solve recon drone issue before moving any long range air-defense within 50km zone.
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Ukraine defending - bad.
Ukraine attacking - bad.
Ukraine is limited in available resources and can't symmetrical responses and can't wait for Russia to make the first move as it will always result in Vovchansk.
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Good explanatory video
1st drone - ricochet,
2nd - hit and injured the crew,
3rd - blowed the APC.
How nets are used? - light drones may be stopped.
Why latches aren't closed? - No time to do that.
How many drones needed? - a lot.
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A spike in Special equipment losses can't be ignored.
Command vehicles, EW systems and other equipment that supposed to be in relative safe far behind the front line are regular guests of the UAV footages now.
Odds are slowly shifting in 🇺🇦 favor.
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Bakhmut Demon claims the Klishchiivka fortifications. Probably there would be no official confirmation until the whole village would be liberated
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Bradley pile aftermath
Ukrainian counter offense started with the failed massive mechanized assault. That was the first and last time when AFU used and lost that many equipment at a single offense.
Infantry assaults are used since.
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#speculation
🇷🇺 is not allowed to lose Klishchiivka otherwise they can forget about Bakhmut and it would be hard to defend positions on the back of a steep slope so it would be a trade.
Same trade around Berhivka pond - meat pool should be abandoned and ledge shrinked.
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Talks about Tokmak.
The goal is to get over Molochna on the BS plane, not capture every city.
Tokmak is one of the jump hubs.
Vasylivka suits the same purpose and isn't protected by the water on the flank.
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#Map
#Volnovakha
Reports about 🇺🇦 activities near Vuhledar opens another window of opportunity at Volnovakha.
The city is extremely important on that flank and for Mariupol liberation, there are no options to avoid the fight before any further movement.
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The loss should be accepted. Vuhledar cost russians a lot of resources and exceeded all the expectations.
Defenders did the great job, now it's time for other settlements to do the job.
Russians will celebrate, but there are thousands that won’t.
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Bakhmut demon: Klishchiivka is soon.
--
As a month ago. RAF is holding the ground. The bills of this resistance will arrive unexpectedly.
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Small reminder about 🇺🇦 Autumn campaign.
It took almost 3 months and Kharkiv operation to liberate Kherson.
There were 3 major brakes
Davydiv Brid foothold in September
Push to Dudchany in October
The 🇷🇺 regrouping in November
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So basically with ATACMS Ukraine could break the bridge and save thousand lives.
The West can wait a little bit more with the weapons, apparently not all lives matters.
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#Map
3 bridges on the Seim river.
With AFU control over the road to Korenevo the only way for russians to supply the area west of it - is the road to through Glushkovo (1), however there are 2 other bridges in Zvannoe (2) and Karyzh(3).
Only the first bridge should be destroyed.
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“Kherson and Svatove are happening. I see it in the water. I feel it in the Earth. I smell it in the air. Much that once was is lost, For none now live who remember it.”
— J. R. R. Tolkien
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🇷🇺🗑️: Ukraine brought Patriot to the border and shot down all the launched missiles over the launch point in Belgorod oblast. Live with this now.
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Lot of Zerebyanky splits 🇷🇺 front.
AFU needs to secure Hrozove and repel all the attacks from Luhove.
The move to Hladke will secure the high ground and "suggest" 🇷🇺 to "fallback".
Battle for Shyroke can fallow the Klishchiivka pattern.
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#Thoughts
🇷🇺 "Lost" fortification section on the Volnovakha front.
There must be at least two lines.
Majority of 🇷🇺 fortifications are build on the hill behind the water stream and the link between those valleys.
For some reason second line is missing on the Vremiivskiy lendge.
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Interesting rumor.
For unknown reason looks legit.
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Robotyne
Marks of July 10 attack and shelling pattern shows AFU have managed to reach the eastern outskirts taking the forest near the farm and probably get into the forest further east. Unsure what the outcome probably some positions were taken.
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@radiosvoboda
Current plan looks like this
1. Secure highlands in Klishchiivka
2. Secure highlands in around Berkhivka, Yahidne
3. Close the North of Bakhmut and push South along the railroad.
Azov will probably continue to move East towards Ozarianivka.
No fights for the city are expected.
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Destruction of Chonhar will route the traffic through Perekop that is in reach for HIMARS and cant be used for a transit purposes.
Something similar to Kupiansk pontoon crossing should be developed along the Chonhar.
The countdown has begun
After the retreat from Kherson 🇷🇺 got into troubles, jammed between the BS and the Dnipro river, with a 150km long highly vulnerable border in the river delta.
🇺🇦 has full fire control over the North Crimean Canal peninsula, with a flat terrain and channels along the coast.
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#Map
#Staromlynivka
One of the minor targets of the 🇺🇦 counter offense is to move the front away from Velyka Novosilka.
The town to go for should be on a crossroad with multiple paved roads to build supply on and the closest one is Staromlynivka.
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Water drones project cpecs were
60 hours of work and 800km range, capable to carry 200 kg of explosives.
Bridge is 600km from Odessa 75% of available range.
What else confusing: the bridge that can't handle 200kg explosion doesn't feels safe at all.
Grain deal ends today.
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Hilarious if it's true
Morocco bought tanks in Belarus, get russian debt forgiveness for those tanks and send tanks to Ukraine for USA money.
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Rumint
AFU ambushed Russians near Anastasievka.
This road was created for that.
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She didn't wear a seat belt and support militarization, that eventually killed her.
Keep safe.
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The pocket is going to disappear soon, but no progress towards Pokrovsk, yet
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AFU have crossed the stream and the moat NW of Sudzha on the way to Malaya Loknya, railway station north of the valley.
AFU trying to avoid the valley and current movement looks like a proper assault setup so far.
Also you can notice how undermanned fortifications work
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This numbers looks insane.
70K artillery rounds a day for 5 month
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I find NewYork a good illustration to the front right now.
Ukraine has no resources to cut the break for many reasons, but at the same time it doesn’t look as a disaster.
Russians have ivanz to spend that results in some gains.
source:
@Deepstate_UA
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2x Ka-52 are down
It's somewhere near 100% of all available Ka-52 copter claimed.
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🇷🇺 suffering from higher losses during 🇺🇦 "counter offense" and can't afford such defense anymore.
The lack of long-range artillery pushes them forward to closeout.
They may succeed but will vuhledar instead.
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What if 🇷🇺 failed that hard at Vuhledar just to put the bar as low as possible.
Avdiivka is desperate to catch up.
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#Map
#Klishchiivka
pushback
First reported somewhat significant 🇺🇦 gain in a couple of months happens at the area where 🇷🇺 was struggling since capture of Kurdumivka.
The area is estimated from 2 to 8 km² and makes no difference.
What matters is momentum and positions.
0/X
Russians lost one bridgehead over the Siversky-Donets canal south of Bakhmut (Screenshot 1).
Since weeks Ukrainian soldiers of the "Terra" unit have been decimating Russian troops at Bakhmut's southern flank (Screenshot 2).
Russians tried send armored vehicles but were
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Krasna Poliana is probably a good direction to probe the russian defense.
Relatively low risk and high reward move.
Honestly, with current pace, they can be probed anywhere.
#Map
#Staromlynivka
One of the minor targets of the 🇺🇦 counter offense is to move the front away from Velyka Novosilka.
The town to go for should be on a crossroad with multiple paved roads to build supply on and the closest one is Staromlynivka.
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What was the point to launch Iskander-K 9M728 missile, just bust another myth about 🇷🇺 missiles?
9M728 (R-500) – flight altitude up to 6 km, speed 4M, range up to 500 km, automatic adjustment in the way, follow of terrain relief in flight.
Still failed.
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What the point for russians engage into the fights that close to the frontline when they have 50km deep defense?
What if they don't?
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🇺🇦 won a Lyman operation, that turns out to be a total disaster for 🇷🇺.
All the survived troops have retreated to Kreminna, that is already by a constant attacks from 🇺🇦.
🇺🇦 is superior in the woods and better organized.
With Kherson offense in mind, 🇷🇺 will retreat from region
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If AFU is moving to Staromaiorske, russians in Rivnopil should have a strong belief in POW conditions.
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Seems like Russia was kicked out of Vovchansk.
AFU should now decide what buffer zone they need/allowed to get.
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Kinburn Spit is out of reach of the 🇷🇺 artillery
Pervomayskiy island in the Dnieper–Bug estuary, looks as a great place for a proxy base.
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AFU control about 1000km2 according to Syrskyi.
Probably with a grey zone included.
In some fictional world 1000km should look like that:
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The winter is coming, the losses are piling up and there is no signs that 🇷🇺 is ready to give up.
All the mob are exchanged for time for no reason?
🇷🇺 want's Europe to freeze and give up.
The great example of this fight is Kherson.
So how would i defend Kherson?
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Looks like Russia went on offensive mode on the whole eastern front.
Reported losses will tell that story.
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#Map
fortifications and roads
Probably under impression after previous 🇺🇦 operations 🇷🇺 decided to concentrate their efforts on the roads, ignoring underdeveloped direction of Azov Upland.
@Nrg8000
map
🇺🇦 is counter attacking in 2 of 4 "annexed" regions.
While the 🇷🇺 pushing on Bakhmut and around Donetsk, Vasylivka - Vuhledar front is solid since March.
What can be expected and why none of the sides can move?
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#Map
#ChasivYar
Minas Tirith of the Bakhmut. The highest point of the watershed, the museum of the quarries and the mess of woods, hills, ravines, pounds and houses.
The town of 13K population. The last resort before Kramatorsk.
Meet Chasiv Yar.
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One small confirmation on
@Deepstate_UA
map that deserves more attention - small gain on the hills near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, a big thread to whole M03 ledge.
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🇺🇦 is counter attacking in 2 of 4 "annexed" regions.
While the 🇷🇺 pushing on Bakhmut and around Donetsk, Vasylivka - Vuhledar front is solid since March.
What can be expected and why none of the sides can move?
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Demon was restrained in his reports for a while, now he talks about some progress.
Even if there is a success there must be Russian counter attacks.
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So the next week will tell us what to expect in Toretsk direction next.
AFU lost a buffer zone during the rotation, as usual, and some commanders should be prosecuted and punished, but that will never happen.
Maybe russia decided to open another meat grinder and get through the city in order to distract some forces from the nearest directions - Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar.
It's simple claim of the noman land in order to fulfill some goals so far.
Situation - stupid but concerning
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