Lucky305x Profile Banner
Lucky305 Profile
Lucky305

@Lucky305x

Followers
3K
Following
189
Statuses
5K

I like picking stocks. Here to learn. This is my personal, public journal and not investment advice.

Los Angeles, CA
Joined October 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
5 days
@tradedollarnut @PeteLevy9 This one simple trick! Not sold on coal yet, I think max pain is still ahead of us there. Happy to pick up BTU at your single digit $ target :)
2
0
1
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
5 days
@tradedollarnut @PeteLevy9 ok yeah I have the same timeframe. S/D balance in the container market guarantees a long and tough bear market ahead but I'm with you we have a strong H1 ahead of us.
1
0
1
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
5 days
@tradedollarnut @PeteLevy9 Bruce, been enjoying all your posts especially in the coal space. Are you at all worried about the S/D balances in the container market? A lot of ship ordering that will inevitably eat into the rates. Long ZIM as my largest position but as a trade over here.
1
0
7
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
14 days
Great find and indeed the core question to be answered that defines if DQ is a value trap or bargain. Anyone have pointers towards an answer?
@andrew1corpora1
andrew1corporate
14 days
So what is the difference between's GCL $451 $3800 granular polysilicon and the Rod-shaped polysicon and n-type p-type polysilicon of daqo $DQ . GCL is producing at 28 cny 3.87$ according to an article from yesterday down 15% from 30 CNY Daqo is selling at 39 CNY Source: China’s GCL Slashes Silicon Production Costs by 15% in Fourth Quarter So is GCL the best producer out there with best price, what is difference between Rod and Granular ?? Any Polysilicon masters?
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
19 days
@StevenH45332279 Just keep in mind that they have been vocal on paying out ~25% of EPS in divvies. Don't expect the $1.8 to be go-forward unless EPs comes in 4x that. It's very cheap, but they will not do buybacks and they will not keep the div at $1.8 in a bad market were div = EPS
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
20 days
@rdd147 @blondesnmoney How do you get to a PE of 3? Not arguing, genuinely curious. Appreciate your views.
2
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
20 days
@parlay_town @OriginalBraila It's return of capital (no tax due now but lowers your basis for when you sell).
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
22 days
@orrdavid Congratulations! Been following you for a while and will be rooting for you. Bought a tracker position too. I think the ETF route is awesome.
0
0
3
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
25 days
@DecentralizedDr @Rory_Johnston Backwardation is a sign of market tightness. Market is signaling that stored barrels should be pushed to market now vs. later.
0
1
1
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
1 month
Does anyone own $HSBK via IBKR and is US tax resident? I see a 20% tax withholding; is anyone receiving those dividends in the US without withholding taxes?
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
@andrewcoye @value_screener Buybacks are absurd. It's a fight for survival. The equity is worthless today aside from option value; you don't need buybacks. Just move EV from lenders to shareholders and it will 50x. I like the setup here in the short term.
0
0
3
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
@ragingbullcap Any concern that they might burn their cash balance on something stupid? Unprofitable growth or bad M&A?
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
Finished building my $QRTEA position, 830k shares. January effect + strong Q4 with shoppers more confident after voting in a Republican is the thesis.
4
0
15
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
@1grdecoca @VanIsleInvestor The last bullet point.
0
0
3
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
I'm new to the name and researching. They burnt $8M in cash Q3 alone - working capital movements will stay negative as they grow because you need more inventory, etc. Capital markets are closed as they had to dilute to raise $12M and after that still only $22M in cash on the books. I like the growth - but how can you be certain that they won't need another 2, 3 of 4 quarters of $8M burn to get there? Lastly stock based comp was $9.3M over the past year - that's a hefty >10% dilution, each year just for that alone. It increased 50% from last year so why should we expect <50% increase again next year? Sorry if this sounds overly critical - getting warmed up to the name and looking mainly at the downsides and would love to learn more from folks that have way more experience in the name than me. Would really appreciate your thoughts on the above.
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
@diegobmilano For anyone else who had a hart time finding the document, here's a direct link: (it's only on the homepage not under the presentations tab yet). Would love to join an English one next year!
0
0
1
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
0
0
0
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
2 months
@perinplobato @investwithwes1 Any names you'd be comfortable sharing?
1
0
1
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
3 months
@NStepmum @andrewcoye My 70+ aged dad and aunt watch Netflix and not YouTube. I think this is widespread. It’s their cable cut replacement, YouTube is too alien and the UI too complicated (to differentiate between movies / shows / random youtube content) for them.
0
0
2
@Lucky305x
Lucky305
3 months
@andrewcoye Half the country but I'm going out on a limb here and claim an even large share of QRTEA's money makers. Tax loss selling reversion (Jan effect) + perceived change in economy by a Trump win is my thesis. Real or not, perception drives stock prices in the short term.
1
0
2