Lizquidity
@Lizquidity
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The game I financed, HOP TOP, is available now on Steam: ✨✨✨ My articles:
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Joined March 2012
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Content megathread to organize everything by or about Liz. 1/x
1. Threadapalooza - collection of 100 investing ideas that I'm most known for.
2. The Curious Case of the California Orchard Company - my investigation into $CAOX.
1. Fundamental analysis that doesn’t respect the reflexive nature of reality is kind of dumb.
Reality is only kind of “real” and can be altered, for example, with the strength of belief.
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you don’t need to be more intelligent you need more executive function
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@liz_love_lace
it’s why we win, in fact. a childlike heart is literally divine, we are closer to god for it and we are granted creativity in return.
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1. Fundamental analysis that doesn’t respect the reflexive nature of reality is kind of dumb.
Reality is only kind of “real” and can be altered, for example, with the strength of belief.
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Just broke Venkat so I’ll do my own assignment.
1 like = 1 opinion on... investing, I guess.
Maybe a few per like if no one wants to play.
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Storytelling is a more powerful skill than financial analysis because storytelling is proactive and analysis is reactive.
Storytelling dominates reality. Analysis submits to it.
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10. Humans are on the brink of achieving functional immortality and time is about to become much less valuable.
Interest rates are already reflecting this.
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15. Knowledge is abundant and by itself is only rarely a competitive advantage.
But you can create an edge by synthesizing knowledge to create an understanding that is unique to you.
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we could have and should have stopped with this. it includes all of us. we don’t need the trans flag grafted on in the margins and don’t need the horribly clashing black and brown stripes.
rainbow is for everyone and the only version that’s actually aesthetic
✨Happy
#AutisticPrideDay
! I have created this
#IntersexInclusivePrideflag
version with the rainbow colour infinity symbol to recognise the broad and varied experiences of those with neurodiversity who wish to feel visibly included in our Pride flag.
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My cat just passed away. He was my friend for going on 17 years. I’m gonna miss him a lot.
It makes me so sad that all the creatures we love have to leave us. I wish it didn’t have to be that way.
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recently on the nyc subway, a man asked me for $0.50 and when i didn’t have it he threatened to punch my glasses into my face.
we’re pretending we don’t know exactly what the problem is to feel more empathetic. but allowing this isn’t empathy. it is ruining a high trust society.
So each of those 38 people attacked someone on the subway about every two weeks for an entire year. And the NYPD knows who they are. And the response is "random bag screenings".
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ok. i have a secret for u, to tell u how to never have to worry about money again. it’s actually very simple, way more simple than i ever imagined a few years ago.
when u find smart people who need $$ aid bcuz of circumstances outside of their control?
give it to them freely.
this discourse is kind of insane to me.
when i was a child we lived in a roller skating rink under a movie theater, we were so poor. we made it work. the real question is, what are your expectations for life. if you can live in a roller skating rink even $500k is fine.
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17. Company narrative metagame management is one of the primary roles of a good CEO and most do a poor job of it.
Managing your narrative is a big aspect of capital allocation and can create or destroy fortunes for your shareholders.
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@ExileGrimm
my family unschooled me starting at 9.
it was homeschool at 1st but i refused to do it, so they gave up and let me do whatever i wanted which was mostly watch tv & play video games.
the line “he’ll learn it when he wants” hits home. i didn’t learn to tie my shoes until 28.
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"DON'T INVEST IN OVERVALUED ECOMMERCE"
$AMZN: 783% gain
$W: 467% gain
"DON'T INVEST IN ROLL-UPS"
$CSU.TO: 162% gain
"DON'T INVEST IN JAPAN"
$NTDOY: 61% gain
"DON'T INVEST IN BRICKS-AND-MORTAR"
$TGT - 54% gain
...
Don't invest in other people's rules. 😺
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18. This is why Elon Musk may be one of the greatest CEOs of all time, ESPECIALLY if you think Tesla is worthless.
Narrative management + capital allocation alters intrinsic value.
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29. Social hierarchies come natural to humans, so entities that sell perceived access to higher tiers of those hierarchies will always be in demand.
Social signaling never dies and neither will lux goods and services.
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13. Value investing and growth/momentum investing both work and it’s important to respect and try to integrate the best ideas from each investing style into your own.
Don’t be a cultist to one style. You’re only harming yourself and your family by drinking the Kool-Aid.
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The biggest fraud in the world may be generalized advice.
Everyone is playing a different game and if your games aren't close enough to the same, advice giving is a neutral value add at most.
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4. When a biz has a layered claim on another, such as $MCD and its franchisees or $MAR and its hoteliers, it’s critical to think about the economics of the sharecropper business.
If the sharecropper doesn’t have good economics, eventually the parasitic parent won’t either.
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2. Warren Buffett is a master propagandist and you shouldn’t take his folksy mannerisms earnestly.
He’s trying to trick you into coming to Omaha so he can impoverish you at his annual carnival. $BRK
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28. Businesses that don’t have economic moats yet but are developing them can be better investments than businesses that already do.
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last night i got accused of feeding young trans women to the capitalist machine for giving them food and paying their rent for a few months to get established. wonder if there’s something in the air.
So the current level of conspiracy theory is that I'm corrupting trans women who used to be nice, sweet, and submissive into man-hating feminazis with the power of my money (as though I'm lesbian George Soros, but for trans women).
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Politics has replaced religion as many people’s primary faith. 😔
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Why shouldn’t I get long all defense stocks?
Government spending is unlikely to go down and our military hegemony is the threat that keeps our economic system intact.
Military spending is like the maintenance capex of the United States.
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14. Financial statements are usually the outputs of a company’s value drivers, not the value drivers themselves.
Learning adjacent skill sets, such as direct response marketing, can open up opportunities to you that others can’t yet see.
I recommend Tested Advertising Methods.
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6. Consolidated financials are BS when looking at a company’s leverage.
Companies are legally distinct entities and this can result in situations where debt is held at a subsidiary that has no claim on a parent co’s other assets.
Important to see which companies guarantee what.
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If you had to answer Peter Thiel’s famous question, “What important truth do very few people agree with you on,” what would your answer be?
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Regardless of how today's SpaceX launch goes, here's a thought:
If SpaceX goes public, I'm going to buy it pretty much no matter what.
It will be a cult stock and that cult will drive its value far more than its fundamentals will.
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most of the 20-something former gifted kid burnout crew just need someone to believe in them and remind them that in their soul there is still always an ember and even an ember can start a raging fire.
it’s tragic so many are overlooked, there’s a lot of alpha in turnarounds.
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75. Ben Graham was an innovator of investing in his day, and brought creative new ways of thinking to the field.
It’s a disservice to Graham that many of his devotees refuse to do anything but emulate his investing style, when they should be emulating his creativity instead.
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i love this image. a detached acceptance of this is good and correct, only exceeded by supporting the person who is surpassing you to do so even faster.
supporting the growth of others purifies the spirit. the history of humanity is nothing but our successors surpassing us.
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21. Distressed situations are fascinating because they’re just as much about game theory as they are about legal protections and rights.
The Vulture Investors by Hilary Rosenberg is a fun book on the subject, for those of us (mostly) locked out of this game.
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@KatrinciArt
every so often in some fragmentation of my social spheres of trans women, there’s one guy hanger on and i feel bad for him because he’s usually kept at a certain emotional distance from the core group
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That Bitcoin has a cult makes me more optimistic about its fate.
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12. The $TSLA and $TSLAQ communities are both rational responses to a situation that is almost nothing but high stakes reflexivity.
The two forces are in a game of tug-o-war to shape Tesla’s intrinsic value by influencing its stock price. Lots to learn from watching their duel.
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5. Changes in a business’s growth trajectory often swamp the merits of valuation, to both the upside and the downside.
Favorable inflections can sometimes make you a killing. $TGT
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So I dunno what the thing is with people dunking on
@Post_Market
today but I just wanna say they’ve been nothing but kind to me.
I like Post Market and his/her/their thoughts. What avatar they use to represent themself is not important IMO.
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@eigenrobot
i can’t seem to get addicted to nicotine no matter what i try. always run out after a week and don’t bother reupping until i need to write again, which is every six months or so.
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30. The economy is creating more wealthy people and more poor people. The middle gets eaten by the economic meat grinder.
The same is true for businesses. Midline is usually the worst place to be. High end and low end are key to the American Carnage portfolio.
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11. Using history beyond the past twenty years as your understanding of the limits of what sort of corporate growth rates are possible is like using a dowsing rod to start your own water utility.
The world really is different now and what didn’t used to be possible now is.
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if rw spaces become more hospitable to queer people i have a sense you’ll find we’re not an inherently left leaning demographic.
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this is a real vibe. go to a rat party and tell them you don’t code and can’t do math.
most of them lose interest in you right away. it’s a very weird scene where there are some amazing people. but unfortunately a lot of elitists, too.
it *is* very curious that a lot of people who loudly claim mathematical/programming skill is mandatory for someone to be considered "intelligent" will still insist she is some sort of genius
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32. LTV/CAC analysis can really screw you up if you don’t consider cohorts and scale of spend.
Often, your earliest adopters are your biggest fans.
If you don’t have an internal growth engine, there’s a good chance you’ll run into diseconomies of scale in customer acquisition.
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20. Dispassionate analysis will always have its place but emotion can add a ton of value to an investor’s skill set.
Putting yourself in the customer’s shoes can help you share empathy with them, which can tell you a lot about WHY they use the products and services they do.
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when i was 9 years old my family took me out of school and i stayed home all day watching tv and playing video games, with negligible social interaction outside my family.
eventually at 16 i decided i wanted to do something more useful, and remembered how well my grandfather
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51. Some of the best investment opportunities are found just by stumbling into them in your personal life and appreciating how cool the company is.
Peter Lynch was pretty much right about this and this is also a big reason why emotion and empathy can be advantageous.
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25. For example, industries with relatively low short term price elasticity of supply occasionally experience jackpot economics when the service they’re supplying is mission critical.
See: shipping.
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Yellowstone is a show about a family committing felonies to preserve their multigenerational 0.2% return on assets land business and having spent a lot of time researching uneconomic family controlled pink sheet land banks, i can say it seems pretty realistic
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the cool thing is u can just do whatever u want. i quit my wall street job almost a year ago & spent most of the year traveling and helping friends build better lives for themselves.
then i produced a video game. and now applying to work at a movie theater. u can just do things.
Thinking of leaving a high-paying job?
If you don't have a clearly defined plan, you'll hear the same question over & over again.
It will make you constantly second guess your decision.
And act a as a mirror for your peers insecurities.
The question:
What are you doing now?
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i wonder if this is really true. is anyone productive in the 40 extra minutes or whatever they need bcuz of tsa.
maybe one of my weird beliefs is that time isn’t actually fungible.
i ran the math a while ago. if you add up the average delay caused by security, the TSA has wasted more human life-hours than 9/11 did
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19. Some of the most basic setups are basically just capital structure arbitrage.
Have doubled my money on $MAR from the company replacing higher cost equity with lower cost debt.
Doesn’t always work out but when it does it’s like putting biz performance on steroids.
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36. Anti-prestige businesses are often not appreciated on the market.
There’s often value in companies that cater to non-coastal regions and rural communities.
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four years ago i had zero dating prospects. now i have four or five people courting me at all times.
the biggest change is that i just started doing things for no reason other than i wanted to. it’s all second order from there.
you can just do things? you should just do things.
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Got to have meetings with three people in the last two days thanks to my Tweetstorm. A lot more coming up in the new year, too.
Someone told me Twitter is cool because of how democratizing it is, and I totally agree.
I've made tons of friends here I'd have never met otherwise.
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The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King
Tested Advertising Methods
The Shipping Man
The Match King
Five Strides On The Banked Track
Cable Cowboy
Okay, I gave you mine. What are your favorite investment books?
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16. The strength of the crypto and pot stock bubbles were influenced in part by how aggressively they were hyped by investment newsletters.
The size of the industry would surprise most people. The largest co. has a subscriber base in the seven figures.
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39. Alternatively, just check out Stock Gumshoe and avoid the spam.
There’s a guy there who analyzes the advertisements and outs the stocks they’re pitching.
Sometimes the momentum from a repeated pitch alone is enough to be worth a small wager.
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55. In investing, as in life in general, do not be afraid to weaponize any (legal) advantage the world has granted you.
The world will certainly not be afraid to weaponize your disadvantages against you.
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this is sad and a sublimation of not being able to accept death. no one can have your memories except you. she’s not mad about the china, she’s sad she’s going to be gone and is worried her kids won’t remember her.
This is going to be a sad story for so many families. People are saving mahogany dining sets, breakfronts full of exquisite glasses and plates, and whole sets of silverware for their children who do not want, need, or have a place to put them.
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look. if you made $4 million from your employee stock and own a $7 million commercial building because of it.
i dont care if that stock went to a billion. you were among the luckiest humans to ever live.
I know someone who was a high level Nvidia employee.
In 2017 he sold 4M of stock to buy a commercial building.
He now owns a $7M building that earns him about $18k/mo net.
If he had kept the stock he’d have $50M
Bad investment or just bad luck?
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72. Portfolio diversification is like type diversification in Pokémon.
If you just powerlevel Charmander, you risk getting BTFO by Misty’s Starmie in Cerulean City.
Going all in will kill you eventually.
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83. A lot of people claim the dollar isn’t backed by anything since the end of the gold standard.
That’s wrong.
The dollar is backed by 3,800 nukes and the only demonstrated willingness to use them in warfare throughout history.
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One of my favorite things is seeing financial people talk about how a million or two is not near enough to retire even though most of the country never gets anywhere close to those numbers and don't die of starvation at 65.
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Keep burning off followers thanks to my shoe tying video.
I am proud that I learned to tie my shoes. If it makes you think less of me, then I feel sad you are unable to consider other people’s circumstances.
Love you, even so. Hope you see the value in vulnerability someday. ❤️
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Wrote a short little thing about possible $CAKE metagaming its landlords this morning.
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liz tips for a simple life:
1. keep mandatory expenses, like rent, much lower than you can afford
2. place joy in the company of people you love, not things
3. enjoy your yummies, food and drink is god’s bounty, and share them freely with friends
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Oh hey look what happened today! I almost missed it! A ten bagger.
Not a big position at all, but a cool reminder of the power of investing for the long term.
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46. The best players in bad industries are worth investigating.
If economics are so poor most companies can’t make money, you MAY not have to deal with new players boosting industry capacity.
Top dog’s scale can let it wring out profits surrounded by a moat of broken glass.
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94. You should be totally open to embarrassing yourself as an investor, and if you can, come to enjoy the process.
If you can laugh off being wrong, you can try out more investing styles as a form of R&D to keep improving.
You never innovate without a little egg on your face.
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The most universally accepted beliefs are the ones most important to test.
Truth changes over time, and if an idea is universally accepted, it is seldom tested.
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81. The tech bubble at the turn of the century wasn’t wrong, just early.
Same with the railroads. Just took until the industry consolidated to work.
There’s often a big kernel of truth in mass delusions that makes them believable.
Survivors of wash outs are worth looking at.
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47. Real estate has some unique advantages in terms of leverage and taxes, but also has unique problems.
If you don’t manage it yourself, you’re subject to an agency problem with expense pass throughs.
If you do manage it yourself, you’ve bought a part time job.
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22. Markel’s culture is overrated. The company’s predecessor was literally formed to take advantage of regulatory capture its founder created.
Here’s $MKL co-CEO Richie Whitt talking about the scheme.
“It was pretty brilliant.”
I’ll say.
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it is absolutely wild to me that people still get hired based on sending a resume in somewhere.
my two most recent gigs asked me to send one in after they already offered me the job for HR book keeping purposes but no one even cared what was on them.
do NOT lie on your resumé
People will know within 30 days unless you are cracked
and if you’re cracked
there’s no need to lie on your resumé anyway
QED
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24. Economic moats are cool but aren’t the only thing.
Commoditized businesses can be great investments despite low AVERAGE returns if the range of possible outcomes is wide enough.
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7. Henry Singleton built and dissembled Teledyne so profitably by using the dark arts.
Soros gets credit for reflexivity but Singleton understood it intuitively AND knew how to manage narrative to bend it to his own will.
Look at how trouble at Argonaut influenced his buybacks.
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Only about 3k more followers until I abandon what made me popular and transition into a political account to expand my base.
It’s the tried and true FinTwit strategy!
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The last thing I want in a company is for some suit to be the CEO. I want the crazy CEOs. They're the ones who come up with new ideas and shake up the game.
You hire a cookie cutter leader, you're gonna get cookie cutter results. Crazy CEOs = convexity.
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100. Don’t be afraid to invent your own investing concepts. The field’s philosophy reminds me of heatlamped hamburgers left out to rot for decades.
Investing is artistic so be artistic and try new things. It’s fun. Like I tried this hundred tweet thread andnowImdonethanks
@vgr
!
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Probably 15% of FinTwit is people complaining that the stock market isn’t working how they think it ought to.
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@hotchippp
it is an indictment of his masculinity for him to do this. he should be honored and feel proud to be able to provide for her so she can do her arts,
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i am a homosexual biological male who finds life more tolerable dressing as & socially living as a woman.
that’s okay actually. i don’t need society to make it more than that.
i don’t want my life to be a politics football...
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i’ve gotten two jobs, two girlfriends, and dozens of irl friends doing exactly this. don’t give up!
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Actually people was asking here’s all my stonks by ~ weighting, excluding illiquid OTCs:
$GOOG, $MO, $AMZN, $GLIBA, $CSU.TO, $UBP, $TGT, $W, $GAW.L, $NTDOY, $CHWY, $TPL, $AJRD, $LMT, $WWE, $SSRTF, $ROIC, $HII, $BRK, $NOC, $FIZZ, $MAR, $FB, $LAMR, $DIS, $PAC, $CCO
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all but a few things on this list was also true of me but what you find out is life doesn’t care about any of this. it’s all in your head.
you can just do things. no one is stopping you. be helpful to people and you’ll be loved. everything else is incidental.
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3. The “present value” of real estate operating lease liabilities is not equivalent to debt in the United States, no matter how many times people say otherwise.
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76. Culture is important. If a lot of people are really into something, you owe it to yourself to check it out and see what all the fuss is about.
Culture creates cash and if you want some of it, it’s important to keep an eye on what people who aren’t like you think.
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i have the coolest friendgroup. i have romance. i have a daughter. i have love. i have resources. i have luck. i have god. i have spirituality. i have enough 🙏
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Multiples are superior to DCF because they're more memetic and as a result have better anchoring value for metagame narrative.
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9. Good and underappreciated sources of information are PACER and state regulatory filings.
Discovered $CAOX corporate existence was supposed to be terminated decades ago and the company never got around to updating its Articles of Incorporation.
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