No one wants to announce Capitulation in the market, but yesterday sure felt like that. No one wants to say that the job market will soften, but AMZN, WMT, and NFLX cutting jobs sounds like it, and maybe we are setting up lower inflation and a market floor
Curious if there are any investors out there who DON'T know that the Fed is going to raise rates several times this year? How many times is the market supposed to react to the same facts? That's the bear case. Perhaps find another reason.
We are beginning to move into the S&P range where Bears will have to either acknowledge that the market strength surprises them and start to buy, or they double down that we retest the lows. We need to anticipate the future, not wait until it happens.
We are still seeing the effect today of the lack of sellers, since we saw such massive volumes of growth and tech stocks coming from hedge and mutual funds, ETF's and individual traders on margin, that supply ran out. This sets up a near term rally.
Three days into a new year and many experts were proclaiming that tech stocks were dead. First, it's too early in the year to say, and second, the sector is so large and ubiquitous that generalities can't apply.
It's amazing how so many experts on the financial news, who were extremely bearish a week ago, have now totally changed their tune. We might have been too optimistic about an earlier capitulation, but we were highlighting stocks to buy for weeks.
It's great to see a strong market day across the board, but we really need a solid follow-up day tomorrow before we can claim that any traction against the bears.
Another big correction, anticipated by many pundits, bites the dust. Treacherous to step out on a limb when buyers swoop in to gobble up stocks after every downdraft. Doesn't mean we won't have a larger selloff, but it wasn't this time.
We experienced a little taste today of what might to the market if something good happens to move the needle in Ukraine toward peace. This might have been premature, but the indication was so strong on the upside that it suggests the market is oversold.
Despite a more inclusive public image, many organizations are indifferent to diversity in choosing who manages their money. I explored why in my latest piece for
@barronsonline
:
#AssetManagement
#investors
When we talk about buying more of a stock that is down, such as Netflix, I have found that the greatest gains are made over time when the market is most skeptical and you are most uncomfortable.
Market savants talk about how inflation will definitely hurt tech stocks, but the dominant ones like Facebook, Apple, and Google not selling at eye popping multiples, with strong and growing earnings also have pricing power, correct?
I have to take exception to
@JimZarroli
, a great NPR reporter, who incorrectly said yesterday that the recent decline wiped out all of last year's gains. Untrue. The S&P was up 31.5% in 2019 and is down 8.56% this year to date. Far from wiped out.
We know AAPL will be down some today, but, to those who fail to understand the importance of these big tech companies, I like to pull out comparative stats- Apple annualized sales are $320B and the annual sales of ALL US aerospace and defense cos are $332B.
Aside from professional sports, the
#investment
business might have the lowest percentage of women at the top of the pyramid (at 4%). My new piece for
@HarvardBiz
:
Two days in a row, activist in Salesforce, and broad representation across industry sectors so far this week. We can't call this a rally yet, but we had hit 190 days into the bear market, which is slightly more than the average bear market since 1928.
It would be pretty amazing two days in a row, the the S&P melts down over 2% and then rallies hard back on the strength of buying power. Clearly a lot of people on both sides of these trades, but last two days, more buyers.
New S&P high. People keep asking us how that can happen. The market is not a pure reflection of the economy. Never has been. Among what it reflects is a new awareness of many big firms that have grown faster in a pandemic than they would have.
#Stocks
enjoyed a big rally last week, but there are plenty of names that are available at a discount – if you know where to look.
New op-ed on
@CNBC
:
Airlines and hotel stocks should respond to much better trends this year, but, they have moved a huge amount. If sales were down 85% from the year prior to Covid, and are up 233% from that level this year, it's still 50% below 2019; many stocks are higher.
Let's remember that the market thinks ahead and has rewarded financials, to a great degree, this year with the expectation of higher rates coming soon. They can move higher, but perhaps not be among the leaders again in 2022.
For Int'l Women's Day, we're celebrating many things including progress still in the works. There were 2 women CEO's of Fortune 500 companies when I started my career after business school, and there are now 41. Still only 8% but we're making it happen.
In the holiday spirit, I realize that I-banks do many things that are charitable, but pricing and designating who gets IPO shares would not be among those acts. Lots of profit there and no covering of the losses buyers might incur on bad deals.
If I could create the perfect plan to derail the progress of professional young women with children, it would be playing out right now.
My new op-ed is up on
@cnbc
: