Chief Market Strategist. Global macro investing, economics, markets, capitalism. Jersey to Miami, Mother of 5. Opinions are my own. You
#makeyourownluck
.
@AOC
#Amazon
#LIC
25,000 jobs at $150,000 a year average=$3billion. Plus lost state tax revenue $9 billion next 25 years (conservative estimate $375 million/year). Not including new infrastructure, transport, housing & technology advances.
#AmazonHQ2
@AOC
#socialism
doesn't work
If Mexico’s Morena party and friends get a 2/3s supermajority in Congress my bet is the Peso blows past 19/MXN. All the hard-won institutional credibility that has made the resilient, strong Peso the envy of the EM world comes into jeopardy. Of the most pernicious proposed
Markets steady march back towards all-time highs. Rich get richer. Less advantaged lose their jobs. One of the many undesired consequences of Fed and government stimuli will be the populist backlash, in which both sides of the political aisle will find common ground.
As my notable master's degree prof
@Nouriel
has accurately highlighted, over the past 60 years, US inflation north of 5% with unemployment below 5% has always resulted in "hard landing" (recession)
Confirmed the tragic loss of two beautiful people inside and out. Thank you to those who’ve reached out with thoughts and prayers.
#Surfside
is such a horrific tragedy that stole so many lives. Miss you already sweet friend
@GracielaCattar1
@DiMartinoBooth
I said the same thing when I drew up my own chart this morning. Once they lift the moratorium on foreclosures and expulsions (as Here in Florida) this will look much different
The exodus from high-tax tri-states continues. Destination: sunny 0% tax Florida
Starwood Capital, Connecticut’s Third Largest Asset Manager, Moves HQ To Miami
My bet we get a gov't shutdown. Auto strike. Oil prices surge. Delayed impact of 525bps in hikes. The looming kick in the gut to consumption will do the Fed's work for it. As I've been saying for a long time, a steep deceleration in economic activity is what is required to get
For our second annual in-person StoneX Speaker Series,
@JamesCarville
and
@KellyannePolls
join our “Pure Politics” panel. Point72's Chief economist, Dean Maki, Jon Hilsenrath, and I take on the Markets & Economy. All this in our SSS: US Election Edition September 19, 2024 for
Esta noche 8:30pm ET acompáñennos en Panorama Mundial con
@RequenaCNN
. Les doy mi análisis sobre la depreciación del euro frente al dólar y su impacto global. (¡Vámonos a París!)
@CNNEE
@cnnesptvfans
@BulltickLLC
While there will be no accountability, it should be at least acknowledged that monetary (and fiscal) policy errors are major contributors to the current recessionary and inflationary environment. Big mistakes by Powell and co.
#Surfside
missing. The scale of the tragedy is unimaginable. Please keep the affected in your prayers. Including my friend Graci and her 7 year old daughter Stella
S&P Looks Stretched. My analysis on
@BloombergTV
on equities, rates, economics, money markets, gold and USTs today with the sharp and lovely
@sonalibasak
. Always a pleasure to join you for a smart conversation.
@StoneX_Official
The gov't isnt some benevolent fairy godmother that makes your debt magically disappear-poof! No. Someone pays for that. People don't want to pay someone else's bill. The govt shouldn't make them. That fairy godmother becomes the evil stepmother real quick. Pay your own bill.
Tomorrow in Lima Peru I'm happy and excited to give my "Global Economic and Markets Outlook" for 700 clients of the eminent Apoyo Consulting firm. En español. On a side note, this is the first time my 1 year old little sidekick doesn't travel with me. Enfermita.
Prior record for jobless claims 695,000 in 1982. Today was 3.28 Million. This is most sudden, extreme, devastating shock to ever hit the US labor market. Ripple effects will be huge. human toll of the economic shutdown will be severe. Unsustainable. Must get people back to work.
First round
#Colombia
vote in. Surprise, strong second place finish by right wing Rodolfo Hernández “Colombian Trump”. Fico supporters for Hernandez could be formidable in second round…
#ColombiaVota2022
@BernieSanders
Wrong in every possible way. 14th Amendment: ”nor shall any State deprive any person of life...nor deny to any person the equal protection of the laws.” For the party of infanticide I know this is difficult to comprehend. The termination of a life is never a privilege.
@DiMartinoBooth
@apolloglobal
Until there is a viable alternative to US Treasuries and the USD, this vicious cycle can continue. Result: crowding out of the private sector and lower potential growth here in the US.
"We must move beyond the idea that the Fed can and should be the only institution to help bring inflation down."
@Claudia_Sahm
nails it again. "After all, higher interest rates will not fix supply-side inflation; if anything, they can make matters worse by slowing the growth in
About 90% of US mortgages are fixed rate. Of those fixed rate mortgages, about 90% are below a 6% interest rate, 80% are below 5%, and 60% are below 4%. The effective rate is well below market rates. In short, rate lock-in has minimized monetary policy transmission to US
This obsession with monthly "data dependency"...never made sense to me. How can a central bank be data dependent AND acknowledge the 6-18 month "long and variable lag". So much room for policy error in that inherent disconnect.
Exactly as we stated yesterday. If Biden gets a big night it’s “off to the races” for equities. Also shows that in fact Bernie risk WAS part of the equities slide. Wasn’t 100% virus
I can imagine what that “heartbreaking & moving moment imaginable” last night was,
@marcorubio
. Thank you. God bless this little girl and her BRAVE FATHER
#Surfside
“First responder finds own daughter’s body in Surfside.”