Justin Massie
@Justin_Massie_
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Micah 7:8 | Student @Tayloru | @Campus2Canton | Film-Based Analytics | Embrace Nonconformity
Indiana, USA
Joined October 2023
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Some of you might have seen some WR data when I mentioned detailed charting data, such as physical press success or specific releases.
I'm still collecting data on the three draft classes but working on a prospect comparison model.🧵
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New Ranks:
Malik Nabers
Marvin Harrison
Tier Break
Troy Franklin
Tier Break
Brian Thomas
Ladd McConkey
Tier Break
AD Mitchell
Rome Odunze
Tier Break
Brenden Rice
Ja’Lynn Polk
Keon Coleman
Xavier Legette
Xavier Worthy
Tier Break
Ricky Pearsall
Jacob Cowing
Tier Break
Tez Walker
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When are we getting the Noah Fifita and TMac to UW news
BREAKING: Arizona RB Jonah Coleman plans to enter the Transfer Portal, he tells
@on3sports
The 5’9 220 RB totaled 1,550 Yards & 10 TDs in his time at Arizona
Will have 3 years of eligibility remaining
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Javon Baker is seriously one of the best press beaters in this class. 65% success rate, one of the top guys in the class. But on physical press coverage, 80% success rate. Absolutely spectacular speed and jab releases. Early R2 guy IMO. I’d love it if the Bills drafted him.
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Rome Odunze. I’ve watched my threshold of three games to build a full feel of a WR. I watched Boise State, and both Oregon games, all this ‘23 season. I’m definitely going to go back and watch more because he’s intriguing🧵
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Troy Franklin is currently my WR3 of the ‘24 class. I’ve been absolutely enamored with him since I first turned on the tape.
Strengths: Route running, Pace, Twitchy, Suddenness, Fluid mover, Speed
Weaknesses: Hands and Ball tracking(Play into each other), Play-strength
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WR Ranks, at this point, these ranks and tiers are dynamic!
*Tier 1*
Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
*Tier 2*
Troy Franklin
*Tier 3*
Brian Thomas Jr
Ladd McConkey
AD Mitchell
Rome Odunze
*Tier 4*
Keon Coleman
Brenden Rice
Tez Walker
Ja'Lynn Polk
Rome Odunze grade is unfished.
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First, I apologize to McCarthy. He does have a great arm. Mostly highlights but there are still some low lights sprinkled in there.🧵
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Got some questions on how this class ranks in comparison to last class so I dug up my ranks. These ranks are from an NFL prospect perspective: 🧵
1. Marvin Harrison Jr
2. Malik Nabers
3. Zay Flowers
4. Troy Franklin
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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One thing I really like about Jacob Cowing is that he doesn’t turn his shoulder when getting off the line. Steve Smith discusses it a bit more articulate than I can here(The video is about Nabers but the discussion applies):
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Finishing up Ladd McConkey. Everyone wants to talk about the route running. Dude is a great blocker, good power but high IQ of when to let up and not draw holding calls. Too many WRs and TEs wr out on the edge and hold, McConkey doesn’t.
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Most of the Draft/FF community perceives him as an alpha X WR which I don’t agree with. I see him as NFL team’s number two option, which then translates into more of the Courtland Sutton production range(WR39 in PPR PPG). I believe I’ll just be lower than consensus! R2 NFL DC
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To everyone calling out Adonai Mitchell for “taking plays off” chill. I went back and watched tape from his time at Georgia. It’s definitely a scheme/culture thing at Texas, because the Georgia tape has very few plays taken off. This is why you look at the full body of work.
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Everyone else: “Wow so cool”
Me: Think about how much A22 I could watch
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Finalized Dynasty WR Rookie Ranks:
Harrison Jr
Nabers
Odunze
Thomas Jr
McConkey
Pearsall
Mitchell
Worthy
Burton
Legette
Coleman
Polk
McMillan
Baker
Franklin
Roman
Corley
Mccaffery
Tez Walker
Gould
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In ‘21 I was far out on Jameson Williams, for what I perceived as lackluster route running abilities(I’ve taken victory laps). I believe, due to different concerns, I will end up with the same thoughts on Odunze.
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I’m really struggling to even stay focused on Worthy’s tape. IMO not that exciting. The start of the deep dive is lining up with my initial run through📉📉
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Two thirds of my way through Jacob Cowing. I was told he was a body catcher…I haven’t seen many. I definitely don’t think he has the footwork that Dell has, but I definitely see a realistic route to production/impact
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Not one to toot my horn but….
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Everyone is bashing this deal, I don’t think it’s that bad. Jax asked Ridley to play a different role, mostly vertical stuff and that’s not necessarily where he wins the most.
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Everyone has their potential day two sleeper receiver that "no one is talking about." Newsflash, 90% of the time, a large sum of the community is talking about X player. Well, I actually have one that I have graded as a borderline R2/3 prospect....
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I’m going to it. ‘22 true freshman Tetairoa McMillan is what Brian Thomas Jr is right now.
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New updated rankings:
*Tier 1*
Malik Nabers
Marvin Harrison Jr
*Tier 2*
Troy Franklin
Brian Thomas Jr
*Tier 3*
Ladder McConkey
AD Mitchell
Rome Odunze
Brenden Rice
*Tier 4*
Keon Coleman
Ja’Lynn Polk
Devontez Walker
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Is this supposed to be a highlight? He took like one step and then caught the ball
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My issue with Dart is that he only really succeeds with single coverage. The NFL is a zone/match based league and traditional man isn’t common. Dart needs to develop his processing and timing against zone coverage for me to consider him as a prospect with day one upside.
The 2025 QB class isn't anywhere close to as exciting as 2024's, but there are still some prospects to keep an eye on!
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I just post stuff related to the CFB/NFL Draft, but I'm deep on the March Madness analytics this year. I put a lot of attention on Pace v Turnover% and FGA/Game v Effective Shot% because I feel like game flow is a bit more important in March, as opposed to who is better. 🧵
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I apologize Mr Pearsall, I wasn’t familiar with your game
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This feels like the right decision. In the short glimpses I watched, I was unimpressed
Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka announces that he’s returning to school for his senior season.
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2024 WR Ranks
(Early R1)
Nabers
Harrison Jr
(Mid-late R1)
Thomas Jr
Franklin
McConkey
Mitchell
Odunze
(R2)
Pearsall
Worthy
Rice
Polk
Legette
Washington
(R3)
Coleman
Baker
R. Wilson
Cowing
(Day 3)
Walker
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One of the best tracked balls, I’ve seen so far. Great contortion to adjust to it and then adjusting so he can turn upfield
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He’s a WR. He can’t guard bigger stronger WRs. Just watch the Stanford game
I want you to watch this video and tell me with a straight face that Travis Hunter is a WR at the next level
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Just a slow jump ball guy. No thanks!
Keon Coleman
College: Florida State
1st Attempt: 4.64s
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Strengths: Ball tracking, hands, good rotational hip fluidity, acceleration
Weaknesses: Breaks, speed, play strength
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Are they aware of the quality of the 2025 QB class?
The Vikings are exploring starting Sam Darnold in 2024 and drafting a QB in 2025, per
@SeifertESPN
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Now some shocking charting data.
Go Rate/Success: 15%/25%(Second lowest behind Coleman and tied with Polk, still far behind the rest of the class)
Off Coverage Rate/Success: 11%/73%✅
Out Rate/Success: 11%/82%✅
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@DynastyPrice
One of them never faced press coverage the other is a dominant man press beater. Walker is just running routes on air. I also thought Walker struggled to gain NFL separation on the deep routes, opposed to Thomas actually being strong on the post and nine routes.
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Was watching Roman Wilson and this JJ throw caught my eye. These are the money throws, where you gauge arm strength. Big miss!! I’m the furthest thing from a QB guy, but the back foot and arm don’t look correct from the correct technique I’ve heard. I’m just going to be out
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He’s just an awkward prospect. I don’t really know where he fits in on a team(Flanker, or Slot). Strong success rates on the routes I deem more important to a slot receiver, but his alignment rates and alignment success rates align with a flanker.
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Just watched 13 Michigan games, only looking for the opposite hash outside the numbers and deep outside the numbers throws. I’ll have a thread out tomorrow. Definitely not completely coming off of my opinion but he definitely opened my eyes
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I consume a lot of content and am not aware of a film analysis product that is as detailed as this is.
🔭First day of Astronomy Season and the Film Lab is live! Over 10 hours of film and constantly growing.
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As it is draft day, here are my top 20 WRs, as NFL prospects, for '23 and '24 🧵
R1
Malik Nabers
Marvin Harrison Jr
Zay Flowers
Rome Odunze
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Brian Thomas Jr
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Jordan Addison
Troy Franklin
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Evan Stewart 🧵These notes are off of one game, during his freshman season
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I’m not even a Benkert fan, but what makes you smarter than him?
Whoever tf Kurt Benkert is brags online that you should listen to him because he “played in the NFL.”
Everyone reading this tweet has more yards in the league than he does without playing a snap. He also doesn’t even have a single passing attempt in his entire shitty career 😂
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Let’s talk about the weaknesses.
Breaks: He lacks the ability to consistently get in and out in three steps. This makes me question his timing route abilities, acceleration covers up this flaw.
Strength: He gets manhandled by DBs too much
Speed: Not slow, but not breakaway speed
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Changing the world of football analysis…
Ok, we’ve decided - Huddlevision beta will be released in May. It will be a paid API which’ll give easy access to our models for analyzing game footage. No knowledge of AI or deep learning required to use :)
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With some of the bigger WRs, I’m seeing a lack of a long initial break step which forces them to have to balance themselves with a wasted inside step. Typically they don’t take that inside step and end up slipping or drifting upfield. Not a complex fix but still a hinderance.
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@FFMikeKash
Tet McMillan, Evan Stewart, Luther Burden. All 3 are completely different and it’s pretty much choose your flavor right now
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Yet by some account, that shall not be named, he isn’t a top 15 Devy RB
A first look at Justice Haynes getting in that work this offseason…
Freshman year ✅
Sophomore season 🔜⏳
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Watching some Matthew Golden ‘25. If this kid sunk his hips, he could be Chris Olave. Got great acceleration and deceleration, quick, and great long speed
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Would really appreciate any RTs because sorting through 13 games to find all the relevant throws and then picking and choosing is really hard😄
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More Tet propaganda…A big no is drifting upfield because it could lead to a DB undercutting a route and that leads to PBUs, so QBs lose trust in you. So you run the route with an anti-interception angle. McMillan does it so well, not many college WRs do it this well.
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Excited to share my first article. Here’s my spotlight on Kansas RB Devin Neal
In his debut piece for the
#LeagueWinners
,
@Justin_Massie_
highlights Devin Neal - a potential Sleeper for fantasy football players to target in 2024 drafts.
@Myfantasyleague
#FantasyFootball
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McConkey is so much better than everyone else in my man press success rate. That makes no sense because he doesn’t look that great against press. I look deeper and realize, most of his man press snaps were when he was off the line. Which is why, context in data matters!
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@fball_insights
I still don’t understand what happened with McBride. Are the fumble issues and lack of receiving work that big of an issue? He had high-end elite contact balance and faced extremely high box counts
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Taking a quick glance at the ETN tape. He’s just so nice. Devy RB1 IMO
Film Room Update!
Join the
#NERDHERD
to access our film room and watch these 2024 Rookie Prospects yourself!
A22 Brian Thomas Jr vs Arkansas '23
A22 Brian Thomas Jr vs Mississippi State '23
A22 Brian Thomas Jr vs Ole Miss '23
A22 Brian Thomas Jr vs Texas A&M '23
A22 Jayden
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I know everyone is excited about how Worthy ran a 4.21, but didn’t we already know he was fast? I’m still going to be out, 165 LB WRs should sink their hips better than he does.
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@cedwardsNFL
@hammytakes
@AtnSportsTakes1
@Lions
The people who say he’s overrated or he’s not top 10, are just highlight watchers. They don’t see flashy plays so he’s not top 10. In their minds, flashy plays = top 10.
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Lot of wasted movement in Jalen McMillan’s releases. He uses tries to power off his backfoot like one does on a speed release, but it’s just for singles and crossovers.
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I really try not to be negative, but this looks pretty bad. I THINK it’s spray stab stem. I don’t think he starts off with a good angle, and then the DB adjusts to it and so he throws in the stab at the top, but he’s just not sudden enough to do it
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@ThomasCP_NFL
@SEMOfootball
Hadn’t heard his name before this week, definitely slept on after what he showcased this week!
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Rewatching Keon Coleman as many have advised me to do. This is an example of Coleman using the incorrect hand technique. This ball comes at him from above 9 on the clock so he should use triangle technique and a jump through. He tracks it over the should and uses pinky technique.
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Anthony Colandrea, UVA, True Freshman:
As
@theqbschool
would say, AAA.
Just don’t throw off your back foot and this is a TD! A theme throughout his tape is struggling with throwing/processing under pressure/not designed off script play. If you design rollouts, he can sling it.
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@fakefootballs
Picks are dynamic. They are constantly going up. I’m never giving up any DC this time of year unless there is no trade-deadline and I’m contending for a championship.
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My boy Tank Dell!!!! He’s an elite route runner. Sadly, I did miss on Puka pretty badly, had him as a late day 3 guy and didn’t think much of him as a sleeper
Trinity Score Year 1 is in the books! What a tool and the best part is, it's predictive. Here is the 2023 Rookie WR class.
#FantasyFootball
JSN make the > 5 TxS threshold🙏🏾
Reed tWR4 + Wicks tWR8🔥
Mingo made the cut🤯
Poor QJ 📉
Michael Wilson 🚀 "M4" going ape shit next year
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Troy Franklin. Sells the vertical(Weirdly haven’t seen this as much as I would like class-wide). Works inside and then attacks the DB’s leverage with his whole body. Puts the DB on his toes, and just turns on the burners. Doesn’t lose speed throughout the leverage attack👏
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I feel even better about this Braelon Allen take.
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@FFSnoog
One game affects it this much? Dude still can’t separate like Diontae and separating is the most important skill for WRs
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The one owner who started DeMarcus Robinson because everyone else got injured:
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Excited to share my first article with DFF, on Omarion Hampton.
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The analysis America didn’t know it needed.
This is HUGE. CJ Stroud has found his A+ Synergy WR, Stefon Diggs. Great move for the Texans.
A+ Synergy
🟢Stroud, Libra w/ Aries moon
🟢Diggs, Sagittarius w/ Gemini moon
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@solvingfootball
@SumerSports
I’ll give you three…Drake London, Quentin Johnston, and Martavis Bryant. Athletically similar to the late two, but separates more on the London spectrum.
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@DynastyBuffs
No because we already knew they were athletic. The only difference is, now we have a data point.
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@FFSnoog
This was well done. The only one in that group I was completely out on was Jarrett. The rest were meh, they could be something. I loved Dell though
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No. Garbage. Flowers is a good payer. Toney is flaming hot trash
You taunt and then you fumble on the half-yard line.
Ravens have their own version of Kadarius Toney.
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Calling this play as UNLV with Matthew Sluka😮💨
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@allpurposescout
I like his tape but he his competition level is so low and he didn’t show out in the all-star game.
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