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College production from late round wide receivers (rounds 5-7)
9
11
100
What will you remember most about the Brandon Staley era?
34
422
15K
Targets with at step or more of separation but an uncatchable pass:
Chris Olave - 16
Ja’Marr Chase - 13
Terry McLaurin - 11
Garrett Wilson - 10
Marquise Brown - 10
De’Andre Hopkins - 10
Chris Godwin - 10
DK Metcalf - 10
Keenan Allen - 10
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205
2K
How often QBs throw to open/wide open receivers and their charted accuracy (5+ air yard passes).
Think this may speak to the stale offense/weapons in CAR, but also Bryce Young’s ability to hammer tighter windows with his arm.
96
221
1K
Charted turnover-worthy vs highly-accurate passing when kept clean
67
162
921
Lowest % of dropbacks attempting an aimed pass to a receiver since 2006 per PFF, min 300 dropbacks:
1. Justin Fields, 2022 (64.4%)
2. Justin Fields, 2023 (70.9%)
3. Michael Vick, 2006 (71.9%)
4. Tim Tebow, 2011 (72.2%)
5. Justin Fields, 2021 (72.8%)
27
45
569
Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)
Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%
Michael Penix Jr: 1.3%
27
96
546
“Dad what was it like before two-high safeties?”
3
22
526
Charted highly-accurate vs off-target passing from a clean pocket, excl screens/checkdowns (since 2021)
Hope Justin Fields turns it around with another org but don’t hold your breath
Upper-left quadrant is scary stuff
66
83
450
Lowest charted “turnover-worthy” throw rate from inside the pocket since 2021, excl screens/checkdowns (750+ att)
Justin Herbert: 2.3%
Joe Burrow: 3.4%
Patrick Mahomes: 3.5%
Tom Brady: 3.6%
Jared Goff: 3.6%
Derek Carr: 3.8%
Jalen Hurts: 3.8%
Kirk Cousins: 3.9%
Josh Allen: 4.1%
15
74
430
Charted “catchable” throw rates from inside vs outside the pocket, excl screens/checkdowns (since 2021)
Inside pocket has the larger sample and although depth/pressure/receivers impact numbers, hard to ignore extreme splits spanning multiple seasons
36
99
419
Turnover-worthy throw vs actual interception rates. Above the line means “unlucky”, vice versa for names below
Will Levis chucking rocks into the ocean
37
64
407
Air yardage “lost” from uncatchable passes with charted step or better separation:
Chris Olave - 374
Davante Adams - 249
Jonathan Mingo - 238
DeAndre Hopkins - 233
Elijah Moore - 229
Garrett Wilson - 218
Keenan Allen - 199
Tank Dell - 177
Marquise Brown - 176
Brandon Aiyuk - 168
4
25
391
Kimani Vidal college totals among RBs drafted since 2017, via PFF
Elusive rushing (76th percentile)
Pass snaps/game (86th percentile)
Others >75th percentile in both:
- Dalvin Cook
- David Montgomery
- Zack Moss
- Bijan Robinson
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- De’Von Achane
11
27
359
EPA per Target the last two seasons:
Tetairoa McMillan: 1.19
Troy Franklin: 1.09
Marvin Harrison Jr: 0.92
Malik Nabers: 0.85
Rome Odunze: 0.83
Power Five leaders (125+ targets)
10
25
333
Round 1-5 WRs since the 2019 Draft at 12+ yards per target beyond the LOS with <50% targets over the middle (via PFF)
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Tee Higgins
Last two drafts
- Puka Nacua
- Jermaine Burton
7
46
330
Scramble % on non-pressured dropbacks (final college season)
Justin Fields: 9.1%
Jayden Daniels: 7.2%
Drake Maye: 5.6%
Anthony Richardson: 5.1%
Bryce Young: 5.0%
Spencer Rattler: 4.3%
Bo Nix: 2.6%
Caleb Williams: 2.6%
CJ Stroud: 2.5%
Trevor Lawrence: 1.1%
Michael Penix Jr: 0.7%
22
43
325
Turnover worthy throws vs actual interceptions (via
@FantasyPtsData
)
Expecting some Goff/Geno regression
36
63
321
Highest WR target rate with at least a step of seperation, min 25 tgts (excl designed)
Chris Olave - 92%
Tyreek Hill - 86%
Tank Dell - 86%
Puka Nacua - 82%
Ja’Marr Chase - 81%
Adam Thielen - 80%
Nico Collins - 79%
Josh Downs - 79%
Brandon Aiyuk - 78%
7
47
307
I nicely asked this person to stop doing this and they said “You don’t own twitter.”
I blocked them and they’re still doing it.
Slot contested target % (college career)
T. Dell: 7.8%
Z. Flowers: 8.1%
J. Hyatt: 8.3%
P. Nacua: 8.8%
J. McMillan: 9.0%
R. Rice: 11.4%
L. McConkey: 11.9%
X. Worthy: 11.9%
J. Downs: 12.0%
J. Baker: 12.1%
J. Thrash: 12.5%
R. Pearsall: 13.2%
R. Wilson: 13.6%
K. Coleman: 44.8%
20
21
265
40
17
315
Production against man/zone coverage from the 2024 WR class.
16
50
311
Highest QB time to throw in a season over the last decade, min 300 dropbacks:
1. Justin Fields: 3.45 (2022)
2. Justin Fields: 3.39 (2023)
16
20
305
YPRR vs Man and Zone Coverage from this year’s WR class
19
35
302
NFL WRs vs Man/Zone coverage over the last decade. Justin Jefferson best YPRR vs man and second only to Julio Jones vs zone.
20
37
301
Career production from 1st round WR prospects since the 2020 draft.
19
33
285
Missed tackles forced/touch & yards after contact/carry, P-5 RBs since 2014
Inspired by
@QBLRyan
34
39
275
Forced missed tackles per touch (career)
T. Benson: .391
B. Robinson: .387
B. Irving: .359
T. Spears: .347
M. Lloyd: .344
K. Miller: .326
F. Gore Jr: .309
K. Vidal: .305
K. Mitchell: .302
J. Gibbs: .300
A. Estime: .281
D. Achane: .276
Z. Charbonnet: .275
B. Allen: .242
15
28
275
Top charted “highly-accurate” throw % from inside the pocket since 2021, excl screens/checkdowns (750+ att)
J. Goff: 55.8%
J. Herbert: 55.7%
P. Mahomes: 54.8%
J. Hurts: 53.3%
G. Smith: 53.2%
J. Allen: 52.9%
J. Burrow: 52.9%
D. Prescott: 52.3%
T. Tagovailoa: 51.9%
T. Brady: 50.4%
14
54
272
Malachi Corley in college career
>7.5 YAC/Rec
>60 YPG
>70% Catch rate
Only others to record that since 2015 (min 170 rec)
- Brock Bowers
- DeVonta Smith
- CeeDee Lamb
- AJ Brown
Interesting profile all around.
6
36
270
Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy’s passer rating by field location
21
36
266
Slot contested target % (college career)
T. Dell: 7.8%
Z. Flowers: 8.1%
J. Hyatt: 8.3%
P. Nacua: 8.8%
J. McMillan: 9.0%
R. Rice: 11.4%
L. McConkey: 11.9%
X. Worthy: 11.9%
J. Downs: 12.0%
J. Baker: 12.1%
J. Thrash: 12.5%
R. Pearsall: 13.2%
R. Wilson: 13.6%
K. Coleman: 44.8%
20
21
265
WR prospects from the last two drafts and some “advanced” college career metrics (player order is irrelevant)
19
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255
It’s fascinating how Mahomes/Allen/Purdy were all great avoiding sacks even prior to the NFL
Caleb/Maye/Daniels generally have some concerns here. Daniels will have the worst college P2S% by a first round QB since Fields/Zach Wilson
Talent is undeniable but still interesting.
11
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253
College production from the 2024 Wide Receiver class (career totals).
8
57
250
Highest charted “turnover-worthy” throw rate from a clean pocket, excl screens/checkdowns
Desmond Ridder: 9.0%
Baker Mayfield: 5.4%
Sam Howell: 4.7%
Mac Jones: 4.7%
Tua Tagovailoa: 4.6%
Kyler Murray: 2.6%
CJ Stroud: 2.3%
Jared Goff: 2.2%
Kirk Cousins: 1.9%
Justin Herbert: 1.3%
14
37
245
Welcome to the era of defensive interiors and quick pressure
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39
252
Round 1-2 WRs since the 2018 Draft at a <2.0 YPRR in college (via PFF)
DK Metcalf
Dante Pettis
Van Jefferson
Chase Claypool
Terrace Marshall
Tyquan Thornton
Jonathan Mingo
2024:
Keon Coleman
Brian Thomas Jr
Adonai Mitchell
Xavier Legette
Ricky Pearsall
Ja’Lynn Polk
Ainias Smith
15
26
248
Round 1 WRs since the 2018 Draft at 0.40 first downs/target or less and <5.0 YAC/rec excl screens (college career)
- Jalen Reagor
- N’Keal Harry
2024 notables
- Keon Coleman
- Tez Walker
- Xavier Legette
- Malik Washington
Data via
@PFF_College
23
38
247
Career YPRR after removing screens from the 2024 WR class.
Considerable boost for certain profiles.
11
23
240
Career YAC Per Reception after removing screens, 2024 pass catchers
22
42
236
Round 1-3 WRs since the 2018 draft to catch 75% or more of their college targets on a 10.0+ ADOT (per PFF)
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- Justin Jefferson
2024 class:
- Ladd McConkey
6
13
223
Notable DI prospects career run stop and pass rush win rates. Hello Byron Murphy
21
37
225
Javon Baker in college career
>2.50 YPRR
>35% targets outside, 10+ yds downfield
WRs over last three drafts to record that (min 190 targets)
- Marvin Harrison Jr
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave
12
28
219
Zone YPRR and targeted passer rating, WR prospects since 2018.
Where Puka Nacua first caught my eye.
21
26
216
How often teams throw to their first-read on 3rd down and success rates. Mahomes and Allen confirmed aliens.
18
28
215
College pressure to sack rates from recent quarterback prospects
25
48
214
College WRs at 2.5+ YPRR and <50% of targets over the middle from the last two drafts (30+ games)
- Puka Nacua
- Marvin Harrison Jr
- Rome Odunze
- Javon Baker
- Jamari Thrash
3
29
211
The Drake Maye chart imo. If you’re a fan, it’s less nitpicking tape (where there’s def flaws) and more about the tools you work towards blossoming while cleaning up the mechanical inconsistencies. Also think higher volume with less around you inevitably surfaces more lowlights.
10
35
210
Missed tackles forced vs Yards after contact per attempt, RBs since 2022.
20
28
211
Career pressure to sack ratio when holding the ball for >2.5 seconds
Michael Penix Jr: 7%
Anthony Richardson: 11%
CJ Stroud: 12%
Bo Nix: 14%
JJ McCarthy: 15%
Bryce Young: 18%
Drake Maye: 19%
Caleb Williams: 20%
Jayden Daniels: 27%
Will Levis: 27%
11
37
207
Notable EDGE prospects overall pass rush win rates vs just in true pass sets. Laiatu Latu splits the Bosa’s 👀
22
54
209
Can only go up from there
21
23
205
College pressure to sack
Kenny Pickett: 18.6%
Desmond Ridder: 24.3%
Malik Willis: 26.0%
Matt Corral: 18.2%
Bailey Zappe: 16.8%
Sam Howell: 26.7%
Brock Purdy: 12.9%
About that QB class from the 2022 NFL Draft...
1 (20) Kenny Pickett - Traded
3 (74) Desmond Ridder - Traded
3 (86) Malik Willis - Titans QB3
3 (94) Matt Corral - Birmingham Stallions (UFL)
4 (137) Bailey Zappe - Patriots QB2
5 (144) Sam Howell - Traded
170
380
2K
9
21
193
Highest checkdown throw percentage from a clean pocket
Russell Wilson: 19.6%
Justin Fields: 14.0%
Zach Wilson: 12.5%
Derek Carr: 12.1%
Aidan O’Connell: 12.0%
CJ Stroud: 5.4%
Tua Tagovailoa: 4.9%
Mac Jones: 4.7%
Matthew Stafford: 4.6%
Brock Purdy: 4.5%
16
31
195
Most sacks and EPA lost from sacks the last two seasons
1. Russell Wilson (100), -182.6
2. Justin Fields (99), -167.4
8
28
192
Austin Rivers tackle for a loss
Pat Ricard (305) lead blocking for Derrick Henry (247) has to be a Will LB's Nightmare.
30
485
10K
3
12
193
Average time to throw from recent QB prospects (college totals)
10
31
188
Sack avoidance on early vs late downs since 2022. Mahomes is always lurking.
13
31
186
Lowest OT pressure % in true pass sets over last decade per PFF (min 1250)
Tristan Wirfs: 3.6%
Tyron Smith: 6.2%
Andrew Whitworth: 6.3%
Terron Armstead: 6.4%
Lane Johnson: 6.5%
Laremy Tunsil: 6.8%
David Bakhtiari: 6.8%
Demar Dotson: 7.2%
Taylor Lewan: 7.2%
Trent Williams: 7.3%
2
27
188
Round 1 WRs since the 2019 draft to record >80% of college snaps out wide and <2.5 YPRR (via PFF)
- N’Keal Harry
- Jalen Reagor
- Jahan Dotson
2024 notables:
- Adonai Mitchell
- Brian Thomas Jr
- Keon Coleman
- Brenden Rice
22
21
181
Round 1-2 WRs from the last four NFL Drafts and their college production (YPRR & 1st/Target)
20
30
180
Yards vs EPA per route run from Tight End prospects (college career)
Brock Bowers clears Kyle Pitts and the homegrown Baltimore Ravens
18
25
180
Round 1 WRs since the 2018 draft at >0.50 first downs/target over the middle
- CeeDee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- JaMarr Chase
- DeVonta Smith
- Henry Ruggs
- Garrett Wilson
- JSN
2024 Class:
Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
Troy Franklin
Ladd McConkey
Roman Wilson
Jermaine Burton
3
12
168
YPRR facing single vs two-high coverages the last few seasons.
Caveats exist with certain teams but typically WR1s smash single-high and two-high helps ancillary weapons find soft spots in coverage.
Data via
@FantasyPtsData
16
34
169
Notable EDGE prospects career pressure rates and weighted pass rush grades. We’re in a pass protection epidemic but this draft class still has some juice.
26
28
163
Charted passing on throws 15+ yards downfield the last two seasons.
Purdy, Love, Tua throwing to open receivers often. Yes Shanahan tree, but more specifically I think work under center and play action helps besides just having nice weapons.
12
23
163
Pass rush win rates in true pass sets, via PFF (college totals)
B. Murphy: 27%*
J. Carter: 21.6%
M. Hall: 20.7%*
K. Benton: 19%
C. Kancey: 18.1%
L. Taylor: 17.6%*
K. Turner: 16.4%
J. Newton: 16.1%*
B. Fiske: 15%*
T. Sweat: 14.2%*
B. Bresee: 14%
K. Jenkins: 13.6%*
M. Smith: 13.5%
16
31
159
Let’s look at playoff QBs this century
QB EPA/play and his own team’s defensive EPA allowed in those games. Josh Allen has played well and his defense hasn’t. Small samples but if Allen’s “overrated” then it’s time to discuss some other names right
A pal & colleague called an anonymous NFL exec an “idiot” for stating an opinion on Josh Allen (that I think is correct), and then responded by stating his own opinion, which is belied by the actual historical record.
219
178
2K
20
23
163
WRs since the 2022 draft at a 2.0+ YPRR, 0.45+ 1st downs/target and >40% targets out wide in college (min 200)
- Troy Franklin
- Malik Nabers
- Marvin Harrison Jr
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave
2
16
155
Round 1 WRs since the 2018 Draft with 50% or more of career YAC from screens
- Kadarius Toney: 53.2%
- Jalen Reagor: 51.6%
2024 notables
- Malachi Corley: 65.9%
- Ladd McConkey: 53.3%
- Xavier Worthy: 50.8%
Data via
@PFF_College
16
14
155
Pressure to sack in college and overall EPA per dropback in the NFL.
P2S well above 20% is suspect, Burrow pretty much the only exception (Lamar 20.4%, Baker 20.3%).
Biggest 🚩 with Jayden Daniels (24.5%).
16
24
155
Career YPRR excluding the slot (wide, inline, backfield), 250+ routes:
Puka Nacua: 3.69
Brock Bowers: 3.57
Jacob Cowing: 3.23
Marvin Mims: 2.96
Marvin Harrison Jr: 2.86
Jordan Addison: 2.86
Troy Franklin: 2.67
Roman Wilson: 2.59
Johnny Wilson: 2.56
Malik Nabers: 2.54
Via
@PFF
10
14
150
Chris Olave: 3.13 YPRR with motion the last two regular seasons. 3rd behind only Tyreek Hill (3.98), CeeDee Lamb (3.22).
NO dead last in motion dropback usage each year. And despite being pressured the least, Derek Carr checked down the 3rd-most in 2023 at 15.3%.
That’s tough
13
19
152
Highest pass rush win rates by Round 1-2 defensive interiors since the 2016 draft.
Michael Hall isn’t going day one but the pass rush productivity pops. Following the paper trail around the NFL, lots of demand for interior disrupters and def a position group to keep an eye on.
7
33
150
How often Rookie WRs had a LB covering them when they were targeted.
Josh Downs led all NFL WRs this season at 26.3%, min 75 targets.
7
22
147
College RBs over the last two drafts to average 3.8+ yards after contact and 1.0+ receiving YPRR (min 350 rushes)
- Bijan Robinson
- De’Von Achane
- Tyjae Spears
- Bucky Irving
- Audric Estime
7
9
144
Highest WR target rate with at least a step of seperation, over 20 tgts (excl designed)
Chris Olave - 91%
Tyreek Hill - 86%
Puka Nacua - 85%
Tank Dell - 83%
Deebo Samuel - 81%
Ja’Marr Chase - 79%
Adam Thielen - 78%
Nico Collins - 77%
Jayden Reed - 76%
Courtland Sutton - 75%
4
8
149
WRs in the last two drafts at a career 2.8+ YPRR vs Man coverage (50+ tgts)
- Jordan Addison
- Tank Dell
- Josh Downs
- Demario Douglas
- Marvin Harrison Jr
- Malik Nabers
- Rome Odunze
- Jamari Thrash
Data via
@PFF_College
8
17
141
Career pressure to sack ratios vs the Blitz from QB prospects since the 2021 draft.
7
24
143
Pressure to sack leaders the last decade, min 500 pressured dropbacks (PFF):
Andrew Luck: 11.3%
Patrick Mahomes: 11.4%
Nick Foles: 13.3%
Josh Allen: 13.5%
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 13.5%
Philip Rivers: 13.9%
Joe Flacco: 13.9%
Carson Palmer: 14.0%
Drew Brees: 14.2%
Tom Brady: 14.4%
12
17
143
DI class career run stop and pass rush win rates among other drafted interiors since 2016.
8
24
144
Ladd McConkey interesting career profile:
2.5+ YPRR
>20% Screen target rate
<200 Overall targets
Round 1-2 WRs since the 2020 Draft to meet all of those:
Jaylen Waddle
Kadarius Toney
Laviska Shenault Jr
Brandon Aiyuk
5
18
139
Highest target rate with at least a step of separation but an uncatchable pass among TEs last year
Kyle Pitts: 23%
Logan Thomas: 18%
Mark Andrews: 11%
Jordan Akins: 10%
Min 50 targets, per
@FantasyPtsData
3
21
145
NFL RBs since 2021, Jaylen Warren muscle hamster
9
17
144
Lowest % of receptions caught behind LOS, Round 1 WRs since 2018 draft
Ja’Marr Chase: 2.8%
Brian Thomas Jr: 7.9%
Marvin Harrison Jr: 9%
Chris Olave: 10.2%
Garrett Wilson: 13.3%
Justin Jefferson: 13.9%
Rome Odunze: 15.4%
Jahan Dotson: 16.9%
CeeDee Lamb: 17.3%
Malik Nabers: 17.9%
12
14
142
Looking at career pass EPA from the top three drafted QBs by receiver. Jayden Daniels top four casually all first rounders
12
12
139
Allowed pressure last season by offensive line/their percentage of dropbacks with some responsibility, and QB self-owned pressures.
Trent Williams, Penei Sewell, Tristan Wirfs reliable as ever
Jason Kelce glaring loss after retiring
Joe Alt logical fit with Titans
28
32
139
Highest WR target rate with at least a step of separation, min 20 tgts (excl designed)
Chris Olave - 93%
Nathaniel Dell - 90%
Tyreek Hill - 88%
Puka Nacua - 87%
Nico Collins - 86%
Deebo Samuel - 81%
Courtland Sutton - 78%
Adam Thielen - 77%
Davante Adams - 76%
Josh Downs - 75%
5
16
139
DT prospects at a 12% career pressure rate generated (via PFF)
Michael Hall: 12.7%
Byron Murphy: 12.5%
Brandon Dorlus: 12.3%
For context, here are the only Round 1-2 DTs since 2016 finishing higher
Quinnen Williams: 15.1%
Jonathan Allen: 14.3%
Christian Barmore: 14.0%
Chris
10
33
137
Percentage of carries that went 15+ yards (college career)
K. Mitchell: 12.3%
T. Benson: 11.7%
D. Achane: 11.4%
K. Miller: 10.0%
B. Robinson: 9.1%
A. Estime: 9.1%
B. Irving: 9.1%
J. Jordan: 8.9%
J. Wright: 8.7%
Z. Charbonnet: 8.7%
J. Gibbs: 8.6%
B. Allen: 8.2%
B. Corum: 7.2%
5
11
139