Justin Freeman
@JustinFreeman18
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THE FREENAIRY ORACLE
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サマソニ
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#ねぽらぼファンミ2024
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Calvin Ridley has served a 17-game suspension. Let’s spice this up and make him eligible for the Jags vs Chargers
@NFL
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It is not lost on me that in Dan Campbell's first game as head coach of the Lions, Raheem Mostert emerged without a kneecap
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Weird how not a single NFL player was involved in the COVID protocol as soon as the playoffs started
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Todd Gurley is still only 28. We were robbed of what could have been an all-time career.
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If Taylor Heinicke leads Washington to a Super Bowl, he gets to pick the name of the team. That’s the rule.
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Week 3 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position (projected)
2⃣ Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position (in what % of lineups do we project them in an optimal lineup)
3⃣ Most Underowned: A player's optimal rate
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Ran 2,000 simulations of the
#DraftKings
main slate to see how often each player pops in the optimal. I think it's a pretty helpful starting point for comparing to ownership projections. Still trying to sharpen the role of DST in the sims, but feel good about the rest.
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Week 10 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Happy Trenton Irwin week to all those who celebrate!
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It's about that time!!! A quick look at the early ownership projections and optimal rates for this weekend's DK main slate.
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position (projected)
2⃣ Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position (in what % of lineups do we project
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Week 13 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Purdy/Hurts + Aiyuk + AJB looking like a strong premium leverage game stack
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Week 14 DraftKings main slate breakdown:
1⃣ - Chalk (highest owned plays)
2⃣ - Top Plays (highest optimal rate per
@RunTheSims
- where we simulate the slate 10,000 times to find optimal lineups)
3⃣ - Most Underowned (simple formula: optimal rate minus proj ownership) / leverage
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This video is being played in real time.
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Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
- I imagine we will need 1-2 more updates between now and lock as injuries are going to have a major impact this week.
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I prefer to type this out but didn't have the time on the short week. Here is a look at the chalk (colored by severity), the top plays per
@RunTheSims
optimal rate, and the most underowned (comparing optimal rate to proj ownership). I'll add just a few thoughts:
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It's that time of the week:
1⃣ - Highest owned players of the week (Chalk)
2⃣ - Top plays of the week (Highest optimal rates via
@RunTheSims
)
3⃣ - Most under-owned players of the week (optimal rate minus projected ownership)
Let's dig in...
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Week 11 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
So you have the stones to run it back with Tony Pollard?
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Week 12 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Some interesting leverage spots opening up!
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A 69 billion dollar stadium that blinds your players
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Underdog tourney that does not show adp, lists all players alphabetically, does not allow ranking uploads or 3rd party extensions. The Alpha Dog
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BRONZE MEDAL IN THE MILLY🥉
(unrelated, but buy my showdown book: and sub to my channel )
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Week 8 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
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Gobble gobble! Turkey Slate DraftKings breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
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Major week of life events! First and most importantly, I welcomed a brand new baby daughter late last night! I’ve run the sims and concluded my wife is 100x tougher than me.
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Selling Panthers off for picks:
1️⃣ Christian McCaffrey ➡️ Rams
2️⃣ DJ Moore ➡️ Packers
3️⃣ Robbie Anderson ➡️ Ravens
4️⃣ Baker Mayfield ➡️ Arbys
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Week 5 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position 2⃣Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position
3⃣Most Underowned: A player's optimal rate minus his projected ownership
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Week 14 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
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@Mouse0388
Optimistically? You could say that teams hunkered down and isolated because there was too much on the line
Realistically? The teams turned a blind eye toward testing. Players didn't report any symptoms
Pessimistically? The NFL directed it
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Week 7 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Happy Rashee Rice breakout week to all those who celebrate!
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Week 9 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
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Week 6 Main Slate Breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣ Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣ Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Staking my reputation on Kendrick Bourne - what can go wrong?
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With a big 10-game slate tomorrow, let's take a look at:
1⃣ The Chalk: highest owned
2⃣ Top Plays: highest optimal rate per
@RunTheSims
3⃣ Most Underowned: Optimal rate minus ownership
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Updated Week 1 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown brought to you by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest projected ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest optimal rate (how often a player is in the optimal lineup)
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal rate minus projected ownership
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🚨🚨MAJOR NEWS🚨🚨
Today with the help of many awesome and talented people I'm thrilled to launch - an awesome new tools site for DFS, seasonlong, and props. You can do pretty much everything right now with a free account, so please hop in!!!
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Week 15 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Better late than never. Merry Christmas ya filthy animals
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When you've got a solo first place in showdown at halftime
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If you’re a veteran and would like a free premium subscription to
@RunTheSims
for the rest of the NFL season ($200+ value), please DM me and I’d be happy to make that happen.
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Two big-time USFL transactions not yet reported by the league:
MI QB Shea Patterson CUT
PIT QB Kyle Lauletta CUT
👀
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Alright folks - first run at the Sunday main slate on DK. Quite a few injury situations worth monitoring that should shift ownership over the next 27 hours.
Reminder:
Chalk = projected ownership
Top Plays = optimal rate on
@RunTheSims
Most Underowned = Optimal minus Ownership
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Situational football edge I've never seen deployed but I think has legs:
1⃣Down 1 to 4 points (possibly 5)
2⃣Less than 3 mins in game
3⃣1 timeout or less
4⃣4th down and long
5⃣Outside of FG range
QB takes snap and immediately runs backward to the -10 yard line and takes a knee.
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Wanted to thread🧵some thoughts on parlays📜and round robins🐦 in sports betting. What are they, when to use them, etc.
Let's start by unlearning a few things.
Parlays are surefire ways to spot newbs with no clue what "expected value" is. They are sucker bets... OR ARE THEY? 👇
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Raheem Mostert is one of the most explosive runners in the NFL and a slept on 4.34 speedster. His new competition is a 3rd round rookie with 4.58 speed. Jeff Wilson likely won't open the season and Tevin Coleman is in New York. What are we afraid of? ADP 88.8
#DeadZone
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Revised projection for Mark Andrews: 220 targets 175 receptions 2,872 yards 24 TDs
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Since typing this out apparently helps me get a better feel for the slate, I reckon I'll keep doing it. Three-step process.
1) Identify the chalk
2) Identify the best plays (highest optimal rates on
@RunTheSims
)
3) Identify the most under-owned options
Here goes:
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Alrighty folks - last one of these this year - DraftKings main slate breakdown for the 2-game slate. Before I hop into any thoughts - if you've gotten value from this please follow
@RunTheSims
. We should have some news soon on XFL which starts in 2 weeks!
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@AvoidtheVig
@ericeager_
Love it - esp w Mahomes
Situational football edge I've never seen deployed but I think has legs:
1⃣Down 1 to 4 points (possibly 5)
2⃣Less than 3 mins in game
3⃣1 timeout or less
4⃣4th down and long
5⃣Outside of FG range
QB takes snap and immediately runs backward to the -10 yard line and takes a knee.
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Good lesson on late swap here. This fan was blocked to the top prize if he stayed put. It was a low percentile play to swap to the bullpen but he was poised to capitalize on a dropped ball. Adjusted to the changing info - bravo sir
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First crack at the Week 4 DraftKings main slate by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position
2⃣Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position
3⃣Most Underowned: A player's optimal rate minus his projected ownership
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Since January - down 25 lbs - read 7 books - am back on track to get my doctorate - and have been absolutely obsessed with development at
@RunTheSims
- trying to be much more intentional about being the person I want to be, living the life I want to live. 🙏
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BREAKING: The Jets have traded QB Zach Wilson to the Las Vegas Vipers in exchange for WR Geronimo Allison. Wilson is not expected to be available for Vegas’ week 5 matchup against the Orlando Guardians.
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@adamlevitan
Next Gen Stats clocked Teddy's towel whip horseplay on Hamler at a league high 169 mph
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Sitting 21st in the milly with CMC and Chargers DST... let's at least get the fancy steak knives one time
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I typed this out last week elsewhere and doing so helped me get a better feel for the slate. Basically, we identify the chalk. We identify the best plays using
@RunTheSims
. We identify the most under-owned players. So here goes:
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I noticed I'm not getting a ton of bring-backs in my sims for classic slates. Decided to dig into my projections to see if I was missing something.
So here is a nerd thread on in-game correlation:
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DVP thread: how opposing defenses are impacting offensive expectations through 4 weeks
First, where are targets going against each defense (compared to the opposing offense's season-long average). Buffalo = RB pass funnel. Atlanta = TE pass funnel. KC/PHI = WR prayer yards
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Week 17 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
(Achane ownership has not yet caught up across the industry to Mostert OUT news)
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BREAKING: In hindsight, the D'Andre Swift lock button was bad
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Shall we sweat a little again. 4th week out of 5 being live for the milly. Here’s to running good for the fancy steak knives.
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When RapSheet says "per sources," he just means Schefty's TL right?
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Who wants to sweat a milly with me? Help me out D’Andre
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By all rights I’m a numbers guy. But I’m gonna brainstorm why “chalk smash” “feels like” a thing more frequently in NFL (and really has been a thing for a good while).
1) Dependent Variables vs Independent Variables: imagine you’re predicting coin flips. The last 3 were heads…
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BREAKING: Fantasy twitter marked safe from monkeypox
CDC: Consider fewer sexual partners to avoid monkeypox
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Many of you seemed to enjoy the sim-based optimals last week, so here is another early breakdown. This time, the 2-game
#DraftKings
conference championship slate. I'll thread a few notes too.
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First crack at the Divisional Round main slate on DK.
1⃣CHALK: Highest projected ownership
2⃣TOP PLAYS: Highest optimal rate per
@RunTheSims
3⃣MOST UNDEROWNED: Optimal rate minus projected ownership
Will add thoughts as I have them below:
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Week 16 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
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Ever wanted to build your own fantasy football projections? I'm making this template available at no cost and just ask that you make a donation of $20+ to
@nokidhungry
.
Download link 👇
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Life update: yesterday was my last day at the ECU College of Nursing and today I start my new gig at AWS. Spent the last six years supporting nursing students + navigating a pandemic. Now I get to work bizdev on cutting edge tech. Sun run continues!
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I believe this to be the non-sack that cost a dude $997k as a stat correction. What say you?
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Me to my wife: look babe I won $800
Me to my accountant: look babe I lost $800
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BREAKING: Coach Eric Taylor expected to be named next head coach of Alabama, following the retirement of Nick Saban.
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Zack Moss to determine whether my kids go to college. Let’s ride
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Shout out to
@DK_Assist
- truly the best in the business. Another $7k in the account. Integrity at 💯
Satisfied customer ✅
Did you lose to a Brian Hill team by 3 points yesterday? He was incorrectly attributed a 20-yard catch that actually went to Steven Mitchell. Blocked me out of 2nd place. All good. Who needs $7k anyway?
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Tonight's Giants @ 49ers showdown:
1⃣ Chalk - Highest owned players
2⃣ Top Plays - Highest optimal rate via
@RunTheSims
3⃣ Most Underowned - Optimal rate minus ownership
4⃣ Most Overowned - Optimal rate minus ownership
5⃣ Bargain Bin - Highest optimal rates for players <$4k
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How much longer until George Kittle loses TE eligibility in DFS as one the NFL’s top right tackles?
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Early look at the top plays of the week - DK Main Slate
No ownership available yet - stars and scrubs tend to look most viable early until the late-week injury values open up.
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Doing a lot of testing with our tools
@RunTheSims
and looking at the current week 1 optimal:
QB - J Herbert
RB - Javonte
RB - Rachaad White
WR - Deebo
WR - JJ
WR - Marvin Mims
TE - Irv Smith
WR - Kupp
DST - Titans
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Any time you can land the WR4 from the Vegas Vipers you simply must do it
Breaking news in the NFL: The Dallas Cowboys are signing newly-reinstated wide receiver Martavis Bryant to a contract, according to sources. Bryant, who last played for the Raiders in 2018, had 17 touchdowns and 2,183 receiving yards in 44 career games.
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1K
10K
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Why is drive thru pizza not a thing? Feels like it could be a top 5 American franchise.
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I’m calling BS
"98 percent" of NFL teams think the 49ers will draft Mac Jones, Michael Lombardi reports
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I personally wish the ref swallowed his whistle - but this is grade A accountability, leadership, sportsmanship, and all the thing that makes sports great from James Bradberry. Salute to you sir.
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@CDCarter13
"... and that pass was intended for Terrace Marshall... yes, that's right - it's pronounced Terrace - no N in the name"
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NFL gameday COVID test
This ends 10 straight days of at least one Ravens player testing positive ...
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Ran out of gas. I’ll be a little haunted by Asanti Samuel not trying to score on that INT.
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Smallest of sample sizes, but let's take a look at identifying defenses who are ceding production by asking a few questions...
First, which defense is allowing more plays than expected to opposing offenses?
Answer: Green Bay by a mile
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Beach SZN - just playing for a chance to be on the new DK reality show
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Overnight Injury News Roundup (Week 2):
George Kittle: GTD (Rap); Out (Schefty)
Alvin Kamara: GTD (Rap); Out (Schefty)
Mark Ingram: In (Schefty)
Jameis Winston: In (Schefty)
D'Andre Swift: In (Rap)
Tee Higgins: In (Rap)
J.K. Dobbins: Unlikely (Rap)
Allen Lazard: In (Schefty)
..👇
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Was one play away from pulling a 4/4 sweep on FanDuel, Yahoo, DK (11th), and DK-2nd-half - what a way to end the season - like a solid drive on
#18
, that'll keep you coming back - did it all with
@RunTheSims
- LETS GO!
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Underrated impact of high volume DFS play on your lifestyle: you lose all sense of frugality in your day-to-day life. $15 burger or $38 steak? Who cares when you’re dealing with $3,000 swings based on whether Zhou Guanyu finishes 13th or 14th.
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@RunTheSims
Version 2.0 - now with 5 ownership projection sources (shout out RGP and
@JustinMacmahan
)
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