Week 3 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position (projected)
2⃣ Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position (in what % of lineups do we project them in an optimal lineup)
3⃣ Most Underowned: A player's optimal rate
Ran 2,000 simulations of the
#DraftKings
main slate to see how often each player pops in the optimal. I think it's a pretty helpful starting point for comparing to ownership projections. Still trying to sharpen the role of DST in the sims, but feel good about the rest.
Week 10 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Happy Trenton Irwin week to all those who celebrate!
It's about that time!!! A quick look at the early ownership projections and optimal rates for this weekend's DK main slate.
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position (projected)
2⃣ Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position (in what % of lineups do we project
Week 14 DraftKings main slate breakdown:
1⃣ - Chalk (highest owned plays)
2⃣ - Top Plays (highest optimal rate per
@RunTheSims
- where we simulate the slate 10,000 times to find optimal lineups)
3⃣ - Most Underowned (simple formula: optimal rate minus proj ownership) / leverage
Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
- I imagine we will need 1-2 more updates between now and lock as injuries are going to have a major impact this week.
I prefer to type this out but didn't have the time on the short week. Here is a look at the chalk (colored by severity), the top plays per
@RunTheSims
optimal rate, and the most underowned (comparing optimal rate to proj ownership). I'll add just a few thoughts:
It's that time of the week:
1⃣ - Highest owned players of the week (Chalk)
2⃣ - Top plays of the week (Highest optimal rates via
@RunTheSims
)
3⃣ - Most under-owned players of the week (optimal rate minus projected ownership)
Let's dig in...
Week 11 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
So you have the stones to run it back with Tony Pollard?
Major week of life events! First and most importantly, I welcomed a brand new baby daughter late last night! I’ve run the sims and concluded my wife is 100x tougher than me.
Week 5 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position 2⃣Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position
3⃣Most Underowned: A player's optimal rate minus his projected ownership
@Mouse0388
Optimistically? You could say that teams hunkered down and isolated because there was too much on the line
Realistically? The teams turned a blind eye toward testing. Players didn't report any symptoms
Pessimistically? The NFL directed it
Week 7 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Happy Rashee Rice breakout week to all those who celebrate!
Week 6 Main Slate Breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣ Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣ Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Staking my reputation on Kendrick Bourne - what can go wrong?
With a big 10-game slate tomorrow, let's take a look at:
1⃣ The Chalk: highest owned
2⃣ Top Plays: highest optimal rate per
@RunTheSims
3⃣ Most Underowned: Optimal rate minus ownership
Updated Week 1 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown brought to you by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest projected ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest optimal rate (how often a player is in the optimal lineup)
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal rate minus projected ownership
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Week 15 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
Better late than never. Merry Christmas ya filthy animals
If you’re a veteran and would like a free premium subscription to
@RunTheSims
for the rest of the NFL season ($200+ value), please DM me and I’d be happy to make that happen.
Alright folks - first run at the Sunday main slate on DK. Quite a few injury situations worth monitoring that should shift ownership over the next 27 hours.
Reminder:
Chalk = projected ownership
Top Plays = optimal rate on
@RunTheSims
Most Underowned = Optimal minus Ownership
Situational football edge I've never seen deployed but I think has legs:
1⃣Down 1 to 4 points (possibly 5)
2⃣Less than 3 mins in game
3⃣1 timeout or less
4⃣4th down and long
5⃣Outside of FG range
QB takes snap and immediately runs backward to the -10 yard line and takes a knee.
Wanted to thread🧵some thoughts on parlays📜and round robins🐦 in sports betting. What are they, when to use them, etc.
Let's start by unlearning a few things.
Parlays are surefire ways to spot newbs with no clue what "expected value" is. They are sucker bets... OR ARE THEY? 👇
Raheem Mostert is one of the most explosive runners in the NFL and a slept on 4.34 speedster. His new competition is a 3rd round rookie with 4.58 speed. Jeff Wilson likely won't open the season and Tevin Coleman is in New York. What are we afraid of? ADP 88.8
#DeadZone
Since typing this out apparently helps me get a better feel for the slate, I reckon I'll keep doing it. Three-step process.
1) Identify the chalk
2) Identify the best plays (highest optimal rates on
@RunTheSims
)
3) Identify the most under-owned options
Here goes:
Alrighty folks - last one of these this year - DraftKings main slate breakdown for the 2-game slate. Before I hop into any thoughts - if you've gotten value from this please follow
@RunTheSims
. We should have some news soon on XFL which starts in 2 weeks!
Situational football edge I've never seen deployed but I think has legs:
1⃣Down 1 to 4 points (possibly 5)
2⃣Less than 3 mins in game
3⃣1 timeout or less
4⃣4th down and long
5⃣Outside of FG range
QB takes snap and immediately runs backward to the -10 yard line and takes a knee.
Good lesson on late swap here. This fan was blocked to the top prize if he stayed put. It was a low percentile play to swap to the bullpen but he was poised to capitalize on a dropped ball. Adjusted to the changing info - bravo sir
First crack at the Week 4 DraftKings main slate by
@RunTheSims
1⃣ Chalk: The most owned players at each position
2⃣Top Plays: Highest RTS Optimal Rate at each position
3⃣Most Underowned: A player's optimal rate minus his projected ownership
Since January - down 25 lbs - read 7 books - am back on track to get my doctorate - and have been absolutely obsessed with development at
@RunTheSims
- trying to be much more intentional about being the person I want to be, living the life I want to live. 🙏
BREAKING: The Jets have traded QB Zach Wilson to the Las Vegas Vipers in exchange for WR Geronimo Allison. Wilson is not expected to be available for Vegas’ week 5 matchup against the Orlando Guardians.
I typed this out last week elsewhere and doing so helped me get a better feel for the slate. Basically, we identify the chalk. We identify the best plays using
@RunTheSims
. We identify the most under-owned players. So here goes:
I noticed I'm not getting a ton of bring-backs in my sims for classic slates. Decided to dig into my projections to see if I was missing something.
So here is a nerd thread on in-game correlation:
DVP thread: how opposing defenses are impacting offensive expectations through 4 weeks
First, where are targets going against each defense (compared to the opposing offense's season-long average). Buffalo = RB pass funnel. Atlanta = TE pass funnel. KC/PHI = WR prayer yards
Week 17 DraftKings Main Slate breakdown by
@RunTheSims
1⃣Chalk = Highest Projected Ownership
2⃣Top Plays = Highest Optimal Rates per RTS
3⃣Most Underowned = Optimal Rate minus Projected Ownership
(Achane ownership has not yet caught up across the industry to Mostert OUT news)
By all rights I’m a numbers guy. But I’m gonna brainstorm why “chalk smash” “feels like” a thing more frequently in NFL (and really has been a thing for a good while).
1) Dependent Variables vs Independent Variables: imagine you’re predicting coin flips. The last 3 were heads…
Many of you seemed to enjoy the sim-based optimals last week, so here is another early breakdown. This time, the 2-game
#DraftKings
conference championship slate. I'll thread a few notes too.
First crack at the Divisional Round main slate on DK.
1⃣CHALK: Highest projected ownership
2⃣TOP PLAYS: Highest optimal rate per
@RunTheSims
3⃣MOST UNDEROWNED: Optimal rate minus projected ownership
Will add thoughts as I have them below:
Ever wanted to build your own fantasy football projections? I'm making this template available at no cost and just ask that you make a donation of $20+ to
@nokidhungry
.
Download link 👇
Life update: yesterday was my last day at the ECU College of Nursing and today I start my new gig at AWS. Spent the last six years supporting nursing students + navigating a pandemic. Now I get to work bizdev on cutting edge tech. Sun run continues!
Did you lose to a Brian Hill team by 3 points yesterday? He was incorrectly attributed a 20-yard catch that actually went to Steven Mitchell. Blocked me out of 2nd place. All good. Who needs $7k anyway?
Early look at the top plays of the week - DK Main Slate
No ownership available yet - stars and scrubs tend to look most viable early until the late-week injury values open up.
Doing a lot of testing with our tools
@RunTheSims
and looking at the current week 1 optimal:
QB - J Herbert
RB - Javonte
RB - Rachaad White
WR - Deebo
WR - JJ
WR - Marvin Mims
TE - Irv Smith
WR - Kupp
DST - Titans
Breaking news in the NFL: The Dallas Cowboys are signing newly-reinstated wide receiver Martavis Bryant to a contract, according to sources. Bryant, who last played for the Raiders in 2018, had 17 touchdowns and 2,183 receiving yards in 44 career games.
I personally wish the ref swallowed his whistle - but this is grade A accountability, leadership, sportsmanship, and all the thing that makes sports great from James Bradberry. Salute to you sir.
Smallest of sample sizes, but let's take a look at identifying defenses who are ceding production by asking a few questions...
First, which defense is allowing more plays than expected to opposing offenses?
Answer: Green Bay by a mile
Overnight Injury News Roundup (Week 2):
George Kittle: GTD (Rap); Out (Schefty)
Alvin Kamara: GTD (Rap); Out (Schefty)
Mark Ingram: In (Schefty)
Jameis Winston: In (Schefty)
D'Andre Swift: In (Rap)
Tee Higgins: In (Rap)
J.K. Dobbins: Unlikely (Rap)
Allen Lazard: In (Schefty)
..👇
Was one play away from pulling a 4/4 sweep on FanDuel, Yahoo, DK (11th), and DK-2nd-half - what a way to end the season - like a solid drive on
#18
, that'll keep you coming back - did it all with
@RunTheSims
- LETS GO!
Underrated impact of high volume DFS play on your lifestyle: you lose all sense of frugality in your day-to-day life. $15 burger or $38 steak? Who cares when you’re dealing with $3,000 swings based on whether Zhou Guanyu finishes 13th or 14th.