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at the snap of my finger, I’m thanos | contributor @VortixWx | Beyhive 4L 🤞🏾
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leave Smith in London and give ridder a plane ticket back to Cincinnati for me
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Here's my outlook for Friday's event: I made the ENH area a bit large because I was contemplating an MDT risk, but that seems a bit bullish since we are still 4 days away. What do y'all think?
#wxtwitter
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As we look ahead to the future, the High Amplitude Ridge will gradually progress eastward, ultimately positioning itself over the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Thursday/Friday. A significant portion of the Ohio Valley, along with sections of the Deep South and Carolinas, will
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@RyanPrescott77
@lund_zander
@nathankcn2
@wagmary
@WNEMTV5news
idk if you know, but you’re getting cooked in quotes
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the Amory tornado’s signature is definitely the strongest i’ve seen since Mayfield.
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This is nasty… clearing is ongoing too, I say we’re gonna see a moderate risk in the next hour.
#lawx
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We have an interesting setup across the Southeast. Tomorrow, a flash flood threat and a tornado threat look to ensue, but currently, I will focus on the flood threat.
Flash Flooding Possible Tomorrow across the Southeast.
Anticipation builds as we look ahead to tomorrow, with
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The 00z HRRR paints a quite concerning picture for Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Two long-lived discrete supercells in an environment with insane 0-3km SRH >600m2s-2, SBCAPE ~1500j/kg, and ground scraping LCLs; you have all the perfect ingredients for strong long-tracked strong
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can someone check on the FV3's weird obsession with supercells??
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Machine guidance is pretty in sync with the highest probability of severe wx being in Central AL.
#alwx
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This environment in north Georgia is quite unusual for this time of year! These storms are going to run into a wall of 4000+ CAPE, steep lapse rates, moderate shear, Dry air aloft contributing to DCAPE values of over 1500j/kg. These storms are going to be powerful, winds up to
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Alright, y'all, here's my forecast on this upcoming pattern shift. Enjoy, please. :)
The Westward Migration of the "Death Ridge" and Storm Outlook
1. Westward Migration of the "Death Ridge":
The prevailing "death ridge," a persistent high-pressure system, is expected to
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Watching out for Sunday in the Southeast various model soundings indicate that westerly winds in the boundary layer will quickly intensify with height through mid/upper levels on Sunday across parts of MS, AL, and GA caution should be exercised. This environment will support
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It’s amazing to see how the entire weather community on Twitter came together for this dude. We may be quite dysfunctional, but *most* of us are just a big happy family bonded together by a common passion. ❤️
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that’s, that’s not a good look. CAPE is increasing every run, a more discrete mode is becoming apparent. is it too early to say a categorical risk upgrade? Nonetheless a very, very bad day for Louisiana upcoming.
#lawx
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Here are my thoughts on today's severe weather event
Black areas: Areas circled in black are at the highest risk of seeing multiple tornadoes. 3CAPE and insane shear should support robust convection. Updraft helicities look weak, but that's just maybe because models don't really
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Compared to yesterday (left), cips has expanded its enhanced risk area to include virtually all of North GA except the far northwest corner, and now the slight risk goes more into KY. CSU at the bottom shows the enhanced risk goes further eastward into to portions of SC, and NC.
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The NAM shows exactly what I thought. A potent environment along the dryline but a complete lack of storms to use it.
#txwx
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I'm watching an area that includes all of the southeast next Thursday and Friday as a very strong low pressure system will set up to the north. This will be a heavily sheared environment with. srh >500 m2s2, dews in the low to mid 60s, and adequate cape should support an all
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#Lee
is likely at or very close to category 3 strength. That CDO is starting to look better! So far, Lee is outperforming all hurricane models in terms of RI (even HAFS-B). Let’s see how this shall continue.
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I've created an outlook for Thursday and Friday. Here are my thoughts: I've decided to issue a slgt risk for day 4 due to a potential cap that the GFS and NAM are forecasting that looks to be quite stubborn and will limit convection quite a bit. Friday below⬇️
#wxtwitter
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saw a few ppl do it so here’s my twitter circle. looks about right.
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IMO if the SPC *WERE* to issue a high risk it would look something like this possibly. the HRRR shows a few discrete cells forming in this area. Nice UH and satellite imagery shows a thin cloud layer in this area too... concerning.
#mswx
#wxtwitter
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A conditional potentially significant severe threat could occur if the HRRR's solution occurs this evening. Once the MCS clears sufficient destabilization along with a highly sheared environment will occur over northern Illinois. If any storms can form they will capable of all
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Satisfying to see the 850mb (5000~ feet AGL) wind field of this potential subtropical storm right before/during landfall in NC with the NAM3km modelva. IF this model solution comes true widespread 50mph wind gusts across the Mid-Atlantic with iso. gusts possibly nearing
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Another Cold Core setup in Ohio today. An isolated tornado or two will be possible as low topped cells will start firing up around 21z. They will enter a favorable environment with 3cape values >150j/kg. pwat values are low so these storms will be very photogenic.
#ohwx
(1/2)
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Now, this is very interesting and unexpected. 13z HRRR shows a few tracks of strong updraft helicity over Georgia and into the Carolinas. That means there might be some storms with rotation in their updrafts into this afternoon. Now, will this be some type of long tracked tornado
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This is not a good look, man. A significant hurricane slamming into the Big Bend region and remaining a hurricane over much of southern Georgia eventually makes its way through South Carolina as a strong tropical storm. It weakens over North Carolina but continues to produce
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In my very excited anticipation of next week's potential severe weather event, a pivotal limiting factor emerges VERY distinctly: instability. Presently, the instability indices are, to say the least, suboptimal—significantly impacting the predictive accuracy regarding the true
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