Jon Hartley
@Jon_Hartley_
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Econ Growth. Regs. Fin. Labor. Macro. Firms. Housing. Debt. AI. Econ PhD(c) @Stanford @HooverInst @FREOPP @MLInstitute @CapAndFreedom @EconClubofMiami 🇨🇦🇺🇸
SF / Miami / Toronto / DC
Joined January 2012
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Pinned Tweet
My paper with Urban Jermann, “The Pricing of U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Notes”, is now published in the Journal of Financial Economics (
@J_Fin_Economics
)!
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A great example of the problems with central planning/full blown industrial policy: 15 skyscrapers in China that were part of the Liyang Star City Phase II Project were just demolished after sitting unfinished for eight years due to no market demand.
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A short summary of today's
@JMilei
speech at
@Stanford
@HooverInst
; very technical economics heavy speech covering econ history, growth, general vs. partial equilibrium; dangers of models. Overall, critical of how economics has used market failure to justify state intervention.
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With Luis Caputo (
@LuisCaputoAR
), Argentine Minister of the Economy (“leader of the chain-saw operation” as Javier Milei (
@JMilei
) describes him), who also previously served as President of the Central Bank of Argentina as well as Minister of Public Finances
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RIP Tony Sirico, one of the greatest actors of our time who I'm told passed this morning. Paulie "Walnuts" Gualtieri was arguably the most fun, memorable character from "The Sopranos". Donations are being made in his honor to Wounded Warriors, St.Jude's Hospital &
@ActonInstitute
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Yesterday marked 10 years since the release of Piketty's "Capital In The 21st Century". Hard to think of an economics book in the past 10 years which, for better or worse, has had as much influence on discussion about economics, policy and politics. A Thread🧵
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One of the most powerful moments I’ve ever witnessed in my life: Andrea Bocelli singing Amazing Grace to an empty Duomo Cathedral plaza in Milan with a message of hope on Easter Sunday for all those affected globally by the 2020 Coronavirus outbreak
#MusicForHope
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Full Javier Milei (
@JMilei
)
@HooverInst
speech here (in Spanish)
Disertación del Presidente Javier Milei en la Institución Hoover de la Universidad de Stanford, en Estados Unidos.
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.
@HooverInst
Director
@CondoleezzaRice
welcoming Argentina President Javier Milei (
@JMilei
) to
@HooverInst
@Stanford
in front of a packed crowd.
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Re-upping the stunning demolition videos showcasing housing oversupply in China: 15 skyscrapers in China that were part of the Liyang Star City Phase II Project were just demolished after sitting unfinished for eight years due to absent market demand.
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For an economics PhD student, it’s a dream come true seeing your work cited in a central banker’s book on monetary policy, no less one by Ben Bernanke, one of the most consequential Fed chairs in history. Highly recommend Ben Bernanke’s new book “21st Century Monetary Policy”
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This week marks the 10th anniversary of the release of “Why Nations Fail” by Daron Acemoglu (
@DrDaronAcemoglu
) and James Robinson, which has become easily one of the influential economics books of the past decade. The role of institutions in economic growth can’t be understated.
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I with many other Stanford students have recently witnessed several anti-Catholic incidents inside places of worship on campus. A shame these are not being acknowledged. We all deserve the right to practice our religion (or lack thereof) without harassment
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2: Began with a discussion of intervention of the state and socialism. Much discussion of Hayek, Friedman and general equilibrium. Principle of noninterference good. Argues state intervention during COVID-19 pandemic caused 100k additional deaths in Argentina
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In latest
@CapAndFreedom
ep, Steve Levitt talks his career & retiring as
@UChicago
prof while still leading RISC & Freakonomics. We talk applied economics, Chicago econ dept (price theory failure, macro success, personalities), Freakonomics origin & more
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.
@JMilei
on how economists and politicians reduce our standard of living because they don't understand the differences between reality and the models in their heads
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3: Discussion of economic models and why we need models because the world is complex but that when they stray from reality they can become used to strengthen the state and socialism
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Incredible how large the forecast errors have been in central bank inflation forecasts as of late via
@Bloomberg
@Business
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Thrilled to announce I’ll be starting a PhD in economics at Stanford this fall, a dream since high school. I know many who have the same PhD dream yet didn't get in anywhere this cycle due to smaller cohorts. Let’s commit to insisting they reapply and keep their dream alive (1/2)
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9:
@JMilei
introduced Minister of Economy in audience (
@LuisCaputoAR
), who is “leading the chainsaw operation”, Milei said what they are doing is important not just in Argentina but to the history of the world in that the world is “waking up to the ideas of freedom”
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4: Discussion of why socialism has been so successful in the 21st century in Argentina (under Kirchner), Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Brazil, Colombia; said Spanish President Pedro Sanchez is "like a Kirchner sister" because "he doesn’t have any manners"
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12: Discussed how economics went wrong after the static consumption functions of Keynes and Marshall; why intertemporal substitution matters and why the Wicksellian model which preceded Keynes was better. Recommended Murray Rothbard's "Man, Economy, and State"
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6: Spoke about why he came to study economic growth after teaching micro and mathematical econ; Angus Maddison, and when economic growth began (pre and post Malthusian dynamics). Going from 90% living under extreme poverty in 1800 to 10% living under extreme poverty in 2000
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5: Discussion of "What are markets?" “We are the market”; references to wanting to see the Lakers and Celtics play. Said he once enjoyed watching Magic Johnson play; likes the Lakers colors (yellow and purple) because they are also the colors of his party and advance Liberty
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7: Discusses Wald, Brouwer, and Kakutani fixed point thms and brilliance of general equilibrium. Says a bad economist is one who focuses on partial equilibrium during one period versus a good economist is one who focuses on general equilibrium. How many models have failed us.
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Levitt on Heckman at
@UChi_Economics
: "An absolute genius, but a nightmare personality. He eventually decided that he and I were at war for the future of economics although I never saw it that way. And he did crazy things. I just tell you one crazy thing he did. At one point he
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An absurd article (written for a political party trying to revive its diminishing electoral prospects) calling Canada "booming" based on uncertain/variable IMF forecasts while ignoring Canada's approx 0% GDP per capita growth since the Great Recession. Canada GDP per capita
Unprecedented population growth, record-low unemployment, and the most diversified economy in its 156-year history:
@JustinTrudeau
has ensured Canada is booming like it never has before.
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Many thanks Javier Milei (
@JMilei
) for retweeting/reposting my summary of your talk at
@Stanford
@HooverInst
today!
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8: Discussion of how Ronald Coase had an example of private light houses where trading off property rights better than starting with wrong model and then justifying intervention through market failure. Example how Argentinian Ministry of Water was created just to build a bridge.
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This week marks the 10th anniversary of the release of “Why Nations Fail” by Daron Acemoglu (
@DrDaronAcemoglu
) and James Robinson, which has easily been among the most influential economics books of the past decade. The role of institutions in economic growth can’t be understated
5
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With Luis Capitol (
@LuisCaputoAR
), Argentine Minister of the Economy (“leader of the chain-saw operation” as Javier Milei (
@JMilei
) describes him), who also previously served as President of the Central Bank of Argentina as well as Minister of Public Finances
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11: Discussed Adam Smith's economic model being better conception of economic growth than modern ideas of monopolistic competition including ideas of Joan Robinson. Gave examples where technology improved human condition even after 10 competitors failed leaving one monopoly
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10: Referenced Ramsey and the importance of pursuing 2nd best solutions in the context of regulation. Noted the absence of innovation in cases of extreme regulation.
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NFL 4th down attempts have skyrocketed since the 2018 NFL season. Amazing how such a simple insight that increases win probability, encapsulated in David Romer's 2006 Journal of Political Economy (
@JPolEcon
) article, took over 10 years to get coaches/GMs/owners on board. (1/4)
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.
@nbcchicago
@cbschicago
@fox32news
@chicagotribune
check out the huge swarm of bees here at Madison and Michigan
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Has there ever been a prior head of state with this much knowledge of growth theory?
Technological progress and population growth.
About: Milei, Argentina, economic growth, techno-optimists, techno-phobics, human capital.
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An 18% credit card interest rate cap is such a ridiculously low price ceiling it can hardly be taken seriously (interest rates are prices and interest rate caps are no different from price controls). Unintended consequence of such a policy: less credit availability for the poor;
Sen. Josh Hawley Proposes 18% Credit Card Interest Rate Cap
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On why he is retiring from academia: "It just didn't make sense to me to keep on puttering around, doing all this work, spending years to write papers that no one cared about when I had other ways of getting my ideas out. And really my interests were elsewhere. I didn't get any
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On the topic of Russia, beginning in the 1961 edition of his famous "Economics" principles textbook, MIT economist Paul Samuelson famously predicted that the USSR GNP/GDP would eclipse that of the United States by the end of the 20th century. Never quite panned out.
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Thanks to Bob Solow, most economists today denote Labor as “L” in their models. If Ed Prescott had it his way, we would all be denoting Labor as “N” (and many in the Prescott line still do!)
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The absurd mantra of "fake it til you make it" needs to end and must never be repeated. It is a plague upon ethics. Business people, especially those of the next generation, need to get back to seemingly old-fashion values of honesty, integrity and hard work in everything you do
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Although Javier Milei is a self-described "Austrian Economist", on a Chicago Economics note, worth noting that he has a dog named after Milton (in honor of Milton Friedman) as well as two dogs named Robert and Lucas (both named after Robert Lucas) (
@UChi_Economics
)
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RIP Jonathan Eaton, one of the greatest international economists in a generation. His 2002 trade paper with Sam Kortum "Technology, Geography, and Trade" (which won the 2004 Frisch Medal) arguably could have won him a Nobel Prize.
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Was a really fantastic and wonderful experience interviewing the always kind and brilliant
@DrJBhattacharya
on the latest episode of the
@capandfreedom
podcast
Episode 12: Jay Bhattacharya (
@DrJBhattacharya
) (Stanford Professor of Medicine) on the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Public Health Response
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1: Excited to share my new paper with Abel Brodeur, Nikolai Cook (
@nikolaimcook
) and Anthony Heyes: “Do Pre-Analysis Plans and Pre-Registration Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?” A THREAD (1/N)
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Thrilled to announce the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century podcast (
@CapAndFreedom
) has become an official podcast of the
@HooverInst
and a podcast of the
@HooverInst
Economic Policy Working Group! Watch/listen as
@JohnHCochrane
interviews me and we discuss macro/policy
Join
@Jon_Hartley_
and
@JohnHCochrane
as they introduce the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century podcast to the
@HooverInst
audience and delve into the state of
#macroeconomics
and some of the most pressing economic
#policyissues
confronting our time.
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1: Am launching a new website "De-Dollarization Facts" (related paper "De-Dollarization? Not So Fast" ) tracking the status of the U.S. dollar and provide facts in the "de-dollarization" debate which often ignores just how dominant the US dollar is. THREAD
De-Dollarization Facts: Up-To-Date Facts About The U.S. Dollar In The World
www.de-dollarization.org
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According to the latest Auten-Splitner income inequality estimates, after-tax top 1% income shares have been essentially flat since the 1960s unlike the Piketty-Saez-Zucman estimates which shows substantial increases
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RIP Bob Lucas. Lucas Trees, Lucas Islands, Lucas Critique, Rational Expectations, Mechanics of Econ Growth. So many models/ideas which macroeconomists still often use today. As Greg Mankiw once said, Bob was the most important economist of the last quarter of the 20th century.
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Fun Econ Fact: Emma Raducanu obtained an A* in mathematics and an A in economics for her A-Level exams in the UK on top of becoming the first British woman to win the
#USOpen
since 1968 (and at age 18, the youngest Grand Slam champion since Maria Sharapova in 2004)
#EconTwitter
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Incredible that the early 2020s inflation was higher than in the 1970s/1980s if using the pre-1983 CPI treatment of housing (including housing prices and interest rates rather than owner occupied rent) following the imputation procedure of
@LHSummers
and co-authors
We show that if we make an effort to reconstruct the CPI of Okun’s era—which would have had inflation peak last year around 18%, we are able to explain 70% of the gap in consumer sentiment we saw last year. 8/N
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RIP Ed Prescott, a giant in macroeconomics over the past 40 years. Whether you think this period marked the right turn in methods or not, undeniable that almost every macro calibration today has its roots in seminal papers like Kydland and Prescott (1982)
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Unbelievable video of return fire from the Secret Service snipers
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Heard Jim Simons, legendary founder of Renaissance Technologies, missed the annual Math for America Poker Night Tournament last week amid ill health at age 85. Hoping he gets better. Totally changed quant investing. Highly recommend "The Man Who Solved The Market" by
@GZuckerman
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Levitt on Kevin Murphy and Gary Becker: “Gary Becker was an amazing human being, a brilliant economist. The time that I got to spend with him and Kevin Murphy, there's no thinker on the planet like Kevin Murphy. Kevin is just a phenomenon. It almost I don't even know how to
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Significant implications for U.S. federal agency regulatory decision making. Most significant blow to the administrative state in a generation
“Chevron is overruled”. 6-3. Goodbye Chevron deference. Hello more Skidmore deference.
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A poor twist in tax policy with the "Inflation Reduction Act": tossing out closing carried interest loophole (a logical move to treat general partner income like ordinary income) yet creates a 1% buyback tax (when buybacks are already taxed through cap gains taxes): An EXPLAINER:
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A major SVB irony: for the past decades, many in the tech industry heavily criticized people who studied finance and went into the financial services industry as doing something socially useless and just "moving pieces of paper around"; yet now many in the tech industry wouldn't
Looks like SVB held $120b in securities but basically didn't hedge their interest rate exposure.
That's totally crazy. No wonder they failed.
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@seema_econ
Best Dev Paper Written in the Past 5 Years: “General equilibrium effects of cash transfers: experimental evidence from Kenya” (ECMA) by Egger (
@EggerDennis
), Haushofer (
@jhaushofer
), Miguel (
@tedmiguel
), Niehaus (
@PaulFNiehaus
) & Walker (
@mwwalkerecon
)
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Happy 'Tear Down This Wall' Day!
On this day in 1987, U.S. president Ronald Reagan stands before the Brandenburg Gate and challenges Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev to come to Berlin and tear down the wall.
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1: A THREAD on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and my new
@NationalAffairs
article which attempts to outline many of the major empirical flaws of MMT.
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Levitt on how he "got converted to the power of Chicago thinking" despite initially planning to go back to
@HarvardEcon
or
@MITEcon
after 2 or 3 years as an assistant professor at
@UChi_Economics
: "What I remember was that I was going to Chicago for two or three years because I
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On the topic of "gold standard"/"go to" standard reference books in macroeconomics, "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level" by
@JohnHCochrane
is being published by
@PrincetonUPress
this Autumn:
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Reposting some incredible photos of
@uchicago
after the first snowfall of 2022 (from
@chenmin168cool
on Instagram)
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Full Javier Milei (
@JMilei
)
@Stanford
@HooverInst
@StanfordGSB
Classical Liberalism Initiative speech here with English subtitles
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Standing near Margot Robbie on the set of “The Wolf of Wall Street” and seeing her introduced to the world in her debut scene (in her breakthrough film), I had no idea who she was at the time or where her career was going. Amazing how much changes in 10 years
#BarbieMovie
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RIP Tom Laubach, one of the most influential macroeconomists of our time, who among many achievements co-authored the Laubach-Williams (“LW”) and Holston-Laubach-Williams (“HLW”) models of the natural rate of interest or "R-star"
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Major congrats to Johannes Stroebel (
@stroebel_econ
) for winning the 2023 Fischer Black Prize! Very well deserved with an incredible body of work across so many important areas (too many to list in a tweet). Also a big win for the Stanford Econ PhD program
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Pretty incredibly misleading PE performance chart from a private equity investor: 1: it excludes 2008-2009, the one period when illiquid/PE underperforms liquid/public equities and 2: PE doesn't mark to market often, causing PE volatility to be understated. cc:
@CliffordAsness
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Canada announced it had 500,000 unemployment claims filed THIS week. Extrapolating that to the US population of 300 million (vs 30 million in Canada) suggests there could be as many as 5 MILLION unemployment claims for this week’s estimate coming Thursday
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This marks the 3rd University of Chicago student (either current or very recently graduated) killed by gunshot year-to-date near campus. This should be totally and completely unacceptable for
@UChicago
academic administrators and policymakers alike
We are deeply saddened by the news of a recent graduate being shot and killed near campus. This is devastating news for our community. While we have not had any indication that this is an active incident, we encourage members of our community to be vigilant and exercise caution.
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"The Market Is Too Serene About Inflation" by Tom Sargent and William Silber
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A beautiful act by
@UncertainLars
, Veronica Guerrieri, Zhiguo He,
@DoronRavid
,
@UChi_Economics
and
@ChicagoBooth
forming a dissertation committee to defend the work of the late Yiran Fan and award him a posthumous PhD
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How is this not a massive speculative asset price bubble?
Bill Miller says bitcoin becomes less risky the higher the price goes
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The 2023 forecasts saying that “unemployment must rise above 5% for inflation to get back to 2%” seem as overconfident as the late 2021/early 2022 forecasts saying that “inflation is transitory and will fall on its own to 2% without interest rate hikes”. The future is uncertain.
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A Sunday macro Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) prediction: all SVB deposits insured and uninsured alike will be guaranteed by the FDIC by the end of this coming week. Unless some immediate big bank buyer of SVB assets emerge, my best guess is the Fed will eventually set up a federal
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“Microeconomic Foundations II: Imperfect Competition, Information, and Strategic Interaction” by David Kreps is finally being released in 2023 by
@PrincetonUPress
. The book is sure to be a standard reference/textbook for graduate micro game theory classes
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GDP per capita of Canadian provinces (red) versus American states (blue). Canada largely poorer than the US by comparison with the exceptions of Alberta and Saskatchewan via
@trevortombe
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RIP Daniel Kahneman. A few years ago I asked Danny if he thought bounded rationality was changing over time with the increasing amount of information and products available in the economy. His response was terrific. A short recording of that conversation:
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Damon Harrison has provided us with possibly the best quote about this year's playoffs
@JustinTuck
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.
@TheEconomist
covers my wide-ranging
@CapAndFreedom
podcast interview with
@StevenDLevitt
on his retirement from academia, including our discussion on the evolution of applied methods
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Espinoza v Montana Department of Revenue, decided 5-4 today by SCOTUS, is unquestionably a win for the school choice movement. It also turns out
@HooverInst
’s Thomas Sowell has a book on school choice that comes out today. Not only that, it’s also Sowell’s 90th birthday today.
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My latest piece: "Bob Lucas, the Most Influential Macroeconomist of the Last Quarter of the 20th Century" via
@NRO
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Levitt on how then-President
@BillClinton
, Janet Reno and
@RahmEmanuel
in the 1990s read one of his papers he wrote while a graduate student which found more police causes less crime (the late Alan Krueger acting as an intermediary): "I wrote a paper on the effective police on
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Your regular reminder that Toys-R-Us is still fully operating in Canada and continuing to bring scores of children joy and imagination
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Today the IMF released the 2Q2022 COFER data, the first full quarter of data since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. US dollar share of world reserves actually INCREASED to 59.53% in 2Q2022 up from 58.85% in 2022Q1 and 58.81% in 2022Q4! Dollar Dominance? THREAD🧵
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My paper with
@Felix_Gerding
"De-Dollarization? Not So Fast" is now published in Economics Letters. We find that U.S. dollar dominance has been totally unchanged across many metrics since COVID & the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/related sanctions🧵
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@Austan_Goolsbee
@MITEcon
Levitt on how winning the John Bates Clark medal in 2003 led to
@Freakonomics
: "the only thing that did happen [after winning the Clark medal] was that the New York Times Magazine wanted to write a piece of on me and Stephen Dubner ended up being the reporter who was put on it.
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#AndreaBocelli
#MusicForHope
Amazing Grace one of the most incredible moments I’ve ever witnessed
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