John Peet
@JohnGPeet
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Special reports and Brexit editor, The Economist. Author of "Unhappy Union" and reports on the EU's future (March 25th 2017), and Brexit (October 17th 2015)
London, England
Joined May 2017
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Where might UK-EU relations be under a Labour government? My take in a new CER essay:
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Speaking as an occasional friend of
@BorisJohnson
, also as a fellow journalist: in 45 years of civil service and then public reporting, the only worse prime minister I have seen is Silvio Berlusconi.
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Even by his own low standards, Boris Johnson’s Telegraph article plumbs new depths of shoddiness and dishonesty (short thread) 1/
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If anybody is now threatening the GFA and the peace process, it is Boris Johnson. 18 ends/.
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To claim that the EU is adopting an “extreme” position of trying to divide the United Kingdom is outrageously dishonest. It was Johnson who chose to carve off NI, not the EU. 13/
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PS as a footnote since many people have kindly both liked and retweeted this thread: I note that not one hard Brexiteer that I can find has tried to refute a single statement in this thread. They all know their position is both ridiculous and mendacious.
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Yet he knew this in October 2019, and in the December election, and when ratifying the WA. The claim it was too rushed to understand is absurd: he forced it through with minimum debate. 11/
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It was obvious to anyone who thought for 5 minutes that Northern Ireland and specifically the border with Ireland would be a massive problem if the UK voted for Brexit 2/
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One thing we can say is that the forecasts in 2016, derided as Project Fear, were correct. Project Fear has become Project Fact. No respectable economist could deny that
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I joined HMTreasury straight from university in September 1975. I moved on to The Economist 11 years later. In these 47 years I have never witnessed a more clueless and incompetent government. God help us all.
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And finally, to pretend that his new internal market bill “protects” the GFA is utter drivel. It was the NI protocol that protected the GFA – either in May’s form or his own. 17/
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And his whole party, including all those Brexiteers shouting loudest now, supported this choice. Knowing that it meant a border in the Irish Sea. 14/
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Listening to another Commons Brexit debate just after spending two days in Brussels I am struck yet again by how little Tory Brexiteers (even ministers) understand the EU or how it works (thread)
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When it did, Britain agreed to an EU demand that NI should be part of the Withdrawal Agreement, not the future relationship. It could have said no. Johnson was foreign secretary at the time. 3/
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If Johnson did not want a border in the Irish Sea, he could have refused to agree to the protocol. That would have meant no WA, but it would at least have been honest. 16/
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Now Johnson expresses outrage because the protocol he signed and ratified means border and customs controls in the Irish Sea. And a backdoor for EU state aid rules via the province. 10/
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“Alternative arrangements”, “Malthouse compromises” or claims that neither Ireland nor the UK would ever put up border controls: none of these were ever going to work. 6/
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When the last night, the supreme exhibition of British jingoism, reveals more pro-EU sentiment than ever before, it reveals starkly the blind alley up which Trumpian Tory Brexiteers have driven us. They will surely be gone for years after 2024.
These scenes from the
#proms
augur well for the turnout at
@MarchForRejoin
: I’ve a sense Middle England is as mad as hell and it’s not going to take it any more.
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There were only ever two possible solutions to the NI conundrum. One, align the UK with the EU’s customs code and almost all single-market rules, including for SPS. Thus no border controls between UK and Ireland. 4/
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@bernardjenkin
I am sorry Bernard but given your views I cannot see how you could have voted for the WA in October, November and January. The text of the NI protocol is crystal clear. Did you not read it? Or if you did, not understand it?
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Two, align NI alone with the EU’s customs code and almost all single-market rules, including for SPS. But that inevitably meant customs and other checks in the Irish Sea. 5/
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It is true that a joint committee exists to sort out practicalities of the NI protocol. But it was not set up to change the meaning of the WA, and it cannot legally be used to rewrite a treaty. 15/
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Why I am worried about Johnson getting Brexit done, short thread based on my piece in this week’s Economist./1
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When Johnson took over, he decided to junk the NI backstop. The only way to do this was to revert to solution two, in effect creating a frontstop for immediate use after Brexit.9/
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On export declarations NI to GB, the default option that all goods GB to NI should be treated as at risk of entering the single market and on state aids, the NI protocol could not be clearer. 12/
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In December 2017 Theresa May toyed with solution two, but was forced off it by Arlene Foster, and then said that no British prime minister would ever agree to it. 7/
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So she fell back on solution one, calling it a backstop in hopes that something else might come along in a future FTA that would avoid having to use it. 8/
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I have recently spent some time in Berlin, Brussels and Paris trying to find out how the EU might greet a prime minister Keir Starmer. Here are a few conclusions. 1/
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Next time Tory MPs demand evidence-based analysis of covid tiers, can interviewers ask why they refuse to allow any such analysis of a Brexit deal (or no deal) - which both the OBR and the Bank governor have said will do far more long-term damage than covid?
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What we have learnt about Brexit’s next stage, short thread based on my Economist piece this week. 1/
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A party that in quick succession loses Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Nick Boles, Jo Johnson and Dominic Grieve has serious thinking to do about its future - if it has one
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The fact that the UK cabinet can spend entire days debating its preferred Brexit choices while completely ignoring what is actually negotiable with the EU never ceases to amaze
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Why is Boris Johnson’s government refusing to extend transition for a year, when case for is clear, and treaty allows it to be agreed before end-June? A short thread based round my comment in this week’s issue. 1/
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And to me that means above all, stay on top of what is happening in Brussels and in EU capitals. Norway and Switzerland have big embassies, so should we. MPs, business, lobbyists, officials and even journalists must build links with the EU, always our biggest market! 15 ends/
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The key point to grasp about the white paper on the NI protocol is that it has nothing to do with Brexit or Remain/Leave rows. It is about promises and the rule of law - and the government's intention to break both
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@CER_Grant
@CER_EU
Very good thread. You might conclude that what HMG is doing is not even "courageous": it is downright stupid.
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Next up for EU governments is a more generous mobility deal, especially for young people. Musicians, actors, students: nobody benefits from red tape, high visa costs etc. There is scope for a far more generous open mobility deal with the EU, not just individual countries. 5/
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One, everybody will hugely welcome the most pro-European PM since Tony Blair. And one who makes a big change from a variety of disparate, difficult Tories. 2/
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It is extraordinary. And worth adding that, against strong advice from many experts, in June the UK government unilaterally rejected the insurance option of extending the transition period.
36 days until the end of the Brexit transition. We still do not know the rules that will govern UK-EU trade from January 1st.
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A clear first answer is to foster closer defence and security co-operation. Ukraine, Israel and now the prospect of Trump make the case for closer UK-EU relations here much stronger. This must be a first priority for a Starmer government. 4/
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If you think avoiding a border in Ireland will be easy, visit Svinesund on Norwegian border with Sweden: large truck park, big inspection buildings and, here, disconsolate lorry drivers awaiting clearance into Norway
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@Mij_Europe
@DavidHenigUK
Political irony that these industries heavily concentrated in midlands and north, the areas that abandoned Labour and gave Johnson his huge majority. Will new Tory MPs still be acquiescent if and when they see plant closures and job losses? A key question for year-end. 14/ ends
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@GavinBarwell
@CJCHowarth
Nobody can dispute the identity of the person who deliberately chose to create a customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea: Boris Johnson. Not Theresa May. Not the EU. Not Dublin.
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In 47 years of commentating, I have never observed a more shambolic or disastrous government. I cannot grasp how serious Tories, if there are any left, could have backed
@BorisJohnson
in 2019. They must have been mad.
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Indeed, the biggest question for Starmer is probably around alignment. He has said yes in principle, but added that Britain should not be a rule-taker. But alignment, especially dynamic alignment, implies rule-taking. That sums up the whole Brexit dilemma. 8/
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No-deal at end 2020 hits economy and public finances hard (budget deficit up to 4% of GDP, debt rising again). Far from getting Brexit done, next year promises just to repeat 2019 story of missed deadlines and cliff-edges to no-deal./17ENDS
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They fail completely to understand that integrity of the single market matters far more to the EU, both politically and economically, than any potential disruption of access to the UK market
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Two months after Britain left the single market and customs union in favour of the TCA, a short thread based on my piece in this week’s issue.1/
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What a night. Lessons: voters want Brexit, no matter its effects; Corbynomics is ridiculous and should be dead in the water; and UK so polarised that decent centrist types (Gauke, Reynolds, Soubry, Wollaston, even Swinson) are just road-kill. Not sure all this so good for us!
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Johnson is thus repeating the mistake from round one of assuming that Britain has all the cards. In fact his bargaining position is weak, not least because the WA has settled such awkward issues as money and the NI border. The EU also has the experienced trade negotiators. 6/
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Raab at Lords today accused EU of legalism and called for pragmatism and innovative thinking instead. Yet it was UK, not EU, that took two years to make a proposal for relationship. And it was UK, not EU, that set out legalistic red lines in October 2016
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And this brings up two other issues for Starmer. One, the EU has many other problems: Ukraine, ME, far right, economy, Trump. Why devote any attention to improving relations with an ex-member of the club? 9/
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@vivamjm
@danielmgmoylan
If Brexiteers wanted no controls, why did they advocate Brexit at all? And if they wanted more time to adapt to new controls, why were they against extending the transition period? One sometimes wonders if they have a brain among them....
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I find this new epithet bizarre. The European Council (elected heads), including UK, unanimously approved the backstop in December 2017. Johnson, Gove, Raab etc all praised it at the time for allowing talks to move on to real meat of phase two
@anandMenon1
@BBCr4today
Anyone else noticed how the words ‘backstop’ and ‘undemocratic’ now seem to go together?
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@pmdfoster
@FT
@AJack
How on earth can Brexiteers justify this sort of outcome? Sovereignty? Hatred of Europeans? Generalised xenophobia? And where does it leave Global Britain exactly?
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And we might be only 42 days away from this (even A50 extension by a few months won’t stop it happening again in July). Depressing; also, as ever, worryingly ill-informed
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Yet as a steely von der Leyen confirmed, this is not how it will actually work. Third countries have worse access, zero tariffs and zero quotas requires zero dumping, Brussels and member states mean what they say when they demand a level playing-field and no cherry-picking. 5/
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Question is what they might be prepared to offer a Labour PM who is firmly against joining the single market and customs union and says he wants "to make Brexit work better".
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But everything gets harder when it gets into single-market rules. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications, even Erasmus (because of cost) a lot harder to agree. So will take time. 6/
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Depressing set of Tory MPs questioning Penny Mordaunt on EU talks. All blamed the EU, none suggested Britain might need to move, no hint that giving negotiations more time may be sensible. This looks like no-deal to me: I only hope Tories are happy when they get it.
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So will a veterinary/food standards agreement. Obviously good for farmers and food traders on both sides, good for GB-NI trade. But it would involve alignment on EU rules, acceptance of ECJ and maybe even some budget payments. Not easy, even for Labour.7/
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Somewhere in this mix the UK, like Switzerland, Norway and others, might be able to find a happier home than the one it is in now. One that keeps closer economic and trade relations but without too much on the political front. Labour must keep a close eye on this. 14/
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Relying on EU disunity is unlikely to work. The EU 27’s talk of protecting the integrity of their single market is deadly serious, overriding the interests of eg German carmakers. Size also matters: EU takes almost half UK exports, other way round less than 10%. 7/
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They still think no deal is a threat that will bring the EU to heel over the backstop, rather like Thatcher threat to withhold budget payments, when it is actually an offer to commit suicide
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First, Parliament no longer matters. The sight of MPs rejecting all amendments to the WAB, however reasonable, and passing all its new provisions, however undesirable, confirms that the Johnson government can do what it likes now. A far cry from the days of Theresa May. 2/
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As an economist I find it quite extraordinary that anyone could believe that erecting trade barriers with your biggest market could have anything other than a negative effect on GDP. Economics 101 Mr Colvile
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I just wonder when
@BrandonLewis
became so. an expert in international law. Perhaps about the same time
@SuellaBraverman
did? Many years ago the UK helped invent international law, now we just break it....
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In short, forgoing extension option is neither sensible nor responsible. Unless the true goal is to force through no deal and damn the torpedoes. But if it is, Johnson should admit that openly, instead of pretending that he really wants a deal. 15/ENDS
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Especially when the TCA, up for review in 2025, is weighted to the EU's advantage. Covers goods more than services; EU has border controls in place that UK only now introducing; more obvious than ever that Brexit is damaging, so risk of copying it now remote. 10/
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And what this means is that the EU will not be minded to be that generous on single-market issues even to Starmer. Why should it be? Different if he were to consider joining (like Norway) but he has ruled that out and rejects free movement of people. 11/
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@Mij_Europe
@DavidHenigUK
The industries suffering most from bare-bones deal with regulatory divergence will be eg aerospace, auto, chemicals, food and drink, and pharma that rely on frictionless supply chains. Even lightest checks for regulatory compliance, RoO threaten to break these chains. 13/
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So what next? Two possible ways forward. First, go more explicitly for alignment so as not to rule out SM/CU as possible goals for a second-term Labour government. That includes a CBAM deal and possible link to REACH. 12/
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@CER_Grant
I have it on credible authority that there is no way any of the EU 27 will refuse an extension. That is just a Cummings/Barclay fantasy. The blame for no deal, if it happens, must be clearly on London not Brussels
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It's worse, as the anti-EU trope that Brussels is the problem and you can strike bargains with Berlin and Paris instead dies hard. In fact capitals are usually tougher than the Commission, which always wants a deal. Thus better to work with Barnier than against him...
Good
@JamesCrisp6
DTel tale that EU27 leaders snubbing Johnson's appeal to undermine Barnier. He has spent 2 1/2 years visiting EU capitals weekly to explain his position + get support. Johnson spent same period insulting EU leaders and bigging up Trump. Go figure
@JohnGPeet
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Finally, they delude themselves that, if no deal happened, it could somehow be blamed on the EU, something no disinterested observer (or voter) could possibly believe
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@PaulBrandITV
And Boris Johnson picked this moment to exit the SM and CU. He didn't have to, he could have extended, and he was told we might have a second or third wave. He deliberately chose this option!
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Maybe I am just naive: but I struggle to see how elections in which Tories, Labour and UKIP all lost seats while Lib Dems and Greens both gained seats mean that voters really want Brexit to happen pronto
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They do not grasp how little trust there is in Theresa May’s government, after it whipped for the Brady amendment to vote against the deal she negotiated and said was the only one available
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Second, take some heart from thinking about future EU enlargement. EU members know they can't stick to one-size-fits-all approach with 35 or so members. Hence discussion or variable geometry, hard cores, multispeed and associate memberships. 13/
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Excellent news. Man unfit to be PM confirmed as unfit to be PM
NEW: Sources close to Privileges Committee say evidence is so damning that Boris Johnson could be 'gone by Christmas' if he returns.
One Tory MP tells me any attempt to kill the inquiry could 'bring down the govt'.
Yet momentum builds behind Johnson.
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@Mij_Europe
@DavidHenigUK
The notion of seeking trade deals with others eg US to put pressure on EU won’t wash. Americans notorious for insisting on their wishlist and nothing in return. Food, drug pricing on the table. Anyway no third country will deal until it knows how UK stands with EU. 12/
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That is not least because A50 would lapse, so any new negotiation would have to be A218 meaning unanimity and full ratification by national and regional parliaments – which could take years
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My conclusion now: the real disaster for the Brexiteers was winning on June 23rd 2016. A narrow loss would have kept their cause going for years...
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They cannot see that this makes the EU (and Dublin) even more determined to preserve backstop with no time limit or unilateral exit right, though ready to make promises on temporary nature
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So why not do it? Real answer may be to try to disguise adverse economic effects of hard Brexit in December beneath bigger covid-19 economic meltdown. Politically savvy, perhaps. But hitting firms in trouble with a double whammy is hardly sensible economics. 13/
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@Mij_Europe
Yet setting an absolute end-year deadline is actually unhelpful to Johnson. Vitally, it means that a deal must not be mixed, as that would require lengthy national and regional ratification. So it will be bare-bones goods, nothing on services, security, data, research etc. 9/
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The cost of hard Brexit will take time to emerge. But it looks consistent with LSE modelling for
@UKandEU
: a fall over ten years in British exports to the EU of 36% and in incomes per head of 6%, bigger than impact of covid-19.9/
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Interesting that the latest OECD forecasts for 2023, out today, put UK at 0%. The only country in its list expected to do worse is Russia (-4.1%). Perhaps
@BorisJohnson
should reflect more carefully when he repeatedly touts Britain's worldbeating economy?
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This means Brexit will happen on January 31st. But it will not be “done” and nor can the word Brexit be dropped as the news shifts to business pages. We will be in an 11-month transition during which a highly complex deal on the future must be both completed and ratified. 3/
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@DavidHenigUK
It is almost hilarious. All Tory MPs voted for the WA (an international treaty) and the political declaration only six months ago. So how could any of them now plausibly demand a renegotiation?
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@Haggis_UK
@lewis_goodall
And I have to say that those of us who at the time pointed out that both Anzac deals were decidedly one-sided against the UK (see also
@davidheniguk
) were immediately denounced by Eustice and other Tories as Remoaners.
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They do not see that in fact it would lead to acrimony, money rows, lawsuits and, in effect, a trade war that it would be extremely hard to climb back away from
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They do not realise that Whitehall, never mind Brussels, cannot take the Malthouse/Madhouse compromise seriously as a policy as it drives a coach and horses through the WA
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They fail to detect impatience in Brussels with vague demands from May to “fix” the backstop to help her get the deal over the line, when what is needed is a concrete, specific suggestion
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@Mij_Europe
Fish, financial services and data all troublesome in June/July when PD wants them settled. Littoral countries eg France may just say no fisheries access, no trade deal. Any equivalence for financial services/data unilateral and subject to withdrawal (note Swiss experience). 10/
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But (pace Javid) it would do nothing for services, 80% of Britain’s economy and half its trade. It would not cover security, data etc. And A50 lesson is that a tight deadline forces Britain not the EU into concessions, eg fish or Gibraltar./14
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Such a mixed agreement under A218 needs unanimous approval and ratification by 27 national and some regional parliaments. Less comprehensive deals with Ukraine, Canada, Korea, Japan, Singapore took 4-9 years to negotiate and ratify./7
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One, he was told he couldn’t reopen withdrawal agreement, and yet he did. But analogy does not work. His big change was to accept original plan to leave NI alone in customs union. He won’t want trade deal of repeated concessions./10
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@Mij_Europe
Big issue is regulatory divergence. Johnson says must have it, EU insists it means more barriers. Most businesses (tho' not financial services) don’t want it, preferring system they know. Might we claim to have it in principle but not in practice (per
@DavidHenigUK
)? 11/
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