Joeri Rogelj
@JoeriRogelj
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prof. climate science & policy | 1.5C/net zero/carbon budget/justice | @CEP_IC @Grantham_IC | lead author @IPCC_CH @UNEP #emissionsgap | member @esabcc_eu
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In case you missed it....
Limiting
#globalwarming
to 1.5ºC will require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society but bring clear benefits to people, ecosystems and
#globalgoals
, says new
@IPCC_CH
report. Every bit of extra warming matters
#SR15
#climatechange
21
555
641
40
85
213
Where are global emissions heading and where should they be going to keep
#globalwarming
well below 2C and 1.5C?
Today,
@UNEP
released the 2022
#emissionsgap
report.
A look at the key messages
but caution, not much good news ahead 🧵/1
14
525
951
#youthforclimate
(
@GretaThunberg
,
@AnunaDe
, ...) are being attacked for missing classes, yet their recommendations are more principled and honourable than climate statements of many a politician. As a scientist and
@IPCC_CH
#SR15
author I fully support a science-based approach.
Some rules and recommendations for those on
#schoolstrike4climate
And if you think that “following the Paris Agreement and IPCC” is too vague - then make sure everyone study them. They are the global tools we have at hand today. Let’s use them!
#FridaysForFuture
#ClimateStrike
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3K
7K
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COP decides on "phase-down" instead of "phase-out" of unabated coal power after an oral amendment during approval plenary at
#COP26
A gut wrenching weakening of ambition at the very last minute!
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153
729
The Heat is On🔥🌍
A world of climate promises not yet delivered
Today we’ve publish the
@UNEP
#EmissionsGap
report
Good news:
we are doing increasingly better closing in on 2°C
Bad news:
it is still far from meeting the goals of the
#ParisAgreement
A short thread (1/n)
8
332
649
Carbon budgets tell us how much CO2 we can still emit while keeping warming below specific limits.
The latest
@IPCC_CH
report provides updated estimates of these budgets.
Here’s an insider's view with a deep dive looking at how they have changed since previous reports. (1/n)
17
273
637
How much carbon can we emit while limiting warming below 1.5°C?
It was very little and now it's even less.
In a new paper in
@NatureClimate
we update the
@IPCC_CH
carbon budget numbers with improved methods and new data. (1/n)
98
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551
As long-serving author of
@UNEP
#emissionsgap
reports it's encouraging to see our messages and insights being translated for wider audiences.
Here by
@thejuicemedia
!
Thank you, very clearly communicated & good context for
#COP26
!
Ft.
@GretaThunberg
, analysis by
@climateactiontr
The Government™ has made an ad about Net Zero by 2050, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative.
✨ Feat.
@GretaThunberg
👉 We're on Patreon:
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21K
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Just over a week ago,
@RishiSunak
changed some key UK climate policies for the worse.
My take for
@Nature
magazine on how the UK’s rollback of climate policies will cost its citizens and the world.
@NatureNV
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Hot off the press - new climate research 🚨🌍🔥
Will warming stop once we reach net zero CO2 emissions?
Open-access publication
@FrontiersIn
assessing what we know and don't know about whether warming will stop once net zero CO2 emissions are reached. /1
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Solving the
#ClimateCrisis
too expensive?
Think again.
#COVID19
recovery stimulus dwarfs green energy investment needs for a 1.5°C-compatible world
A thread on our new scientific analysis published in
@ScienceMagazine
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Published today:
The Broken Record of countries' climate pledges not delivering on the emissions reductions we need.
Read the latest
@UNEP
#EmissionsGap
report
(A longer 🧵to follow)
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How much warming is still in the pipeline once we stop emitting CO2?
We find that zero CO2 emissions indeed stop warming on timescales relevant to society
In a new study we look into understanding this "Zero Emission Commitment" (ZEC), exploring what it depends on
THREAD (1/n)
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New
#COP26
analysis: 🚨🌡️🌍
Is COP26 on track to keep 1.5°C alive?
Here I connect the dots between findings of the most recent scientific reports and look at what current pledges mean for carbon budgets limiting warming to 1.5C
(1/n)
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Even in the best of worlds
#globalwarming
can move beyond 1.5C in the next decade but the nonchalance with which this is approached is deeply unsettling 🌍🌡🔥
A 🛢 with thoughts on the profound 'overconfidence in overshoot' that plagues this existential societal conversation./1
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Incredibly honoured to receive this award from
@ISC
.
Thankful to incredible academic mentors, colleagues and friends that guided, motivated, and supported me over the years.
Hoping that science can be at the centre of the climate talks
@COP26
🌟 JOERI ROGELJ
2021 Early Career Scientist Award – Europe
'For exceptional contribution to science and international scientific collaboration by an early career researcher'
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#COP26
is concluding after two years of work with some important decisions.
Some highlights of those areas I have followed most closely:
1) science
2) increased ambition
3) the Paris Rulebook
Some quick reflections (1/n)
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Three degrees of global warming is terrifying.
@TheEconomist
created a short video that makes you see what a 3°C world looks like.
With Oliver Morton (
@Eaterofsun
) and me discussing the likelihood and consequences from 3°C. (1/n)
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Two quotes by two scientists have caused a bit of confusion. 👇
I am one of them.
So let me explain what I'm referring to here. (1)
@KarlMathiesen
Two very different responses from prominent climate scientists to
@dpcarrington
and
@ben_stockton
report on comments made by COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber.
via
@SMC_London
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22
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#COP28UAE
president implied phasing out fossil fuels would send us back to the caves.
Scientific studies show the opposite, unless we are heading for the caves to cool off during the next excruciating heatwave or to find shelter when the next tropical cycle hits 👇🌍🌡
Dear
#COP28
President,
From the experience in Fiji, the only thing that sent people back into caves were
#TCEvan
in 2012 and
#TCWinston
in 2016.
These turbo-charged cyclones are becoming frequent and intense because of continued burning of
#FossilFuels
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Two years ago - we published a new scenario logic to avoid risky and unfair climate change scenarios in
@Nature
.
Yesterday, two new studies in
@NatureClimate
apply this logic and find that avoiding overshoot is the right thing to do both to reduce risks and overall costs.
/1
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In 2021, the European Climate Law created the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change
@esabcc_eu
and tasked it to inform the EU’s
#2040ClimateTarget
and 2030-2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) budget.
Today,
@esabcc_eu
published its advice.
Here’s the short version 🧵1/n
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One year ago today, the
@IPCC_CH
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (
#SR15
) was approved
A game changer for the global conversation on
#ClimateChange
Providing the scientific facts that support the calls for urgent action of
#Fridays4Future
@GretaThunberg
and many others
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Climate change inaction is causing anxiety among children world-wide -- a new pre-print of a study across 10,00 children in 10 countries.
More than 1 in 2 felt sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless, and guilty.
#WeFeelThisToo
/1
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New paper alert: 🚨🌍🌡️🔥
What do climate pledges mean for global warming?
Simple question, confusing answers.
In a new study in
@ScienceMagazine
we shine a new light on this question. (1/n)
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Did you spend sleepless nights wondering what would happen if we stop all agriculture?
Did you ever speculate about how fertilizer emissions would plummet and forest would regrow wildly?
Today is your lucky day!
We wrote a paper looking at exactly these questions!
A short 🧵
1/
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In a 2.4°C world, I will experience
🔥 wildfires 1.5×,
🌊 river floods 1.1×,
🍂 crop failures 1.2×,
🌀 tropical cyclones 2.2×,
🏜️ droughts 4.2× and
☀️ heatwaves 9.9×
more than without climate change.
#myclimatefuture
Do the test 👉
9
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After the first bang of the
@IPCC_CH
AR6 report, it's time to look at my favorite part of the report:
visuals in the SPM.
It was a privilege to work with a team of
#dataviz
and information design experts
@angelamorelli
@tomhal99
@jordanharold
on these visuals
(1/n)
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"Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix"
In a new
@Nature
piece we explain how countries & companies can set rigorous, fair and transparent net-zero targets.
Thread (1/n)
With
@Oliver_Geden
,
@CowieAnnette
&
@ReisingerAndy
(
@NatureNews
)
7
94
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Visuals in the latest
#IPCCReport
are a marvel I cannot stop talking about!
Here's part 2 of my overview of
@IPCC_CH
AR6 SPM visuals.
Kudos once again to
@angelamorelli
@tomhal99
@jordanharold
and
@MelichatGo
for helping to visualize our insights (1/n)
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Outrage and disbelief! 🌍🔥🤬
“I’m not a scientist” was the
@WorldBank
Group’s President
@DavidMalpassWBG
response to whether climate change is real.
Well, I am a climate scientist – allow me to list a few facts 🧵(1/n)
🌎🔥 Today I asked World Bank president
@DavidMalpassWBG
if he believed in the scientific consensus that the man made burning of fossil fuels is rapidly and dangerously warming the planet.
“I’m not a scientist,” he said.
Here’s a thread about the remarkable exchange. 🧵 1/
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Excellent conversation going on about how media messaging following the
@IPCC_CH
1.5 report sating we have "12 years left" until [your favorite climate pandemonium term] has been a disservice to science communication, and is damaging to date 👇
(1/n)
@guardian
@Fridays4future
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The 190 countries of
@IPCC_CH
just approved the summary of their latest climate change report!
It has been an honour to play a small part in it as one of the authors–and a privilege to collaborate with so many talented colleagues and friends.
It will be published on Monday!🌍💚
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The
@FinancialTimes
Climate Game lets you decide how to cut emissions to zero by 2050.
I managed to keep warming to a remarkable 1.42°C in 2050!
That's so low I was surprised myself. 🌍💚😀
/1
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Did the
@IPCC_CH
#SR15
report say that we have 12 years to act to avoid catastrophic
#climatechange
? No, it actually says we need
#ClimateAction
starting today to have a fighting chance to limit warming to levels that wouldn't undermine our future wellbeing and societies.
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Explainer:
what are
#NetZero
targets?
why do they matter?
and why do vague targets lull the world in missing its climate goals?
A (long) thread with scientific and policy background on our recent
@nature
commentary
(1/n)
#ClimateScience
@NatureNews
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Question for
#ClimateTwitter
:
I'm regularly asked for online resources that non-scientists can use to read and learn (more) about climate change - both the very basics and beyond.
Are there any resources you would recommend?
@KHayhoe
@AndrewDessler
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Honored and humbled to become the youngest of 11 members of the
@UN
Secretary-General Climate Science Advisory Group.
Proud to support UN-SG
@antonioguterres
, Dpty-SG
@AminaJMohammed
, & Special Envoy
@ladealba
in addressing the global
#ClimateChange
challenge. (1/n)
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Do you want to better understand IPCC emissions pathways and their implications for global warming?
What are 1.5C pathways and what do they bring us?
We developed a new interactive explainer
@CarbonBrief
exactly on this topic. (1)
NEW – Interactive: The pathways to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit | Uta Kloenne, Dr Debbie Rosen, Gaurav Ganti, Dr Alexander Nauels,
@CarlSchleussner
,
@JoeriRogelj
,
@piersforster
,
@rtmcswee
Design by Tom Pearson and
@tomoprater
Read here ➡️
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@MichaelEMann
Welcome back.
The Paris Agreement will welcome your new leadership with open arms.
#NetZeroUS
?
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Honoured and humbled to be selected for the new European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
The board will provide scientific expertise and advice on climate change that will underpin EU action to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
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Global warming is nearing 1.5°C, but that doesn't mean the aspiration should be abandoned.
We explain in
@ConversationEDU
how climate science and political decisions interact to increase our chances of staying close to the limit or to fail altogether.
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Today 16 children from around the world filed a complaint under the
#UN
Convention on the Rights of the Child to fight the violation of their right to a safe and sustainable future because countries fail to act on climate change
#FridaysForFuture
(1/n)
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Why estimates of the 'cost' of climate action are not sketching an accurate picture.
Not so long ago, we published a scientific perspective in
@NatureClimate
. Here's a more easily accessible blog
@CarbonBrief
NEW – Guest post: Why estimates of the ‘cost’ of climate action are overly pessimistic |
@alexkoberle
@Toon_V
@CelineGuivarch
@JoeriRogelj
Read here:
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Today's news from Australia's
@Science_Academy
latest climate report: "limiting climate change to 1.5°C is now virtually impossible"
I'm quite confused by their finding & scientific evidence backing it up is questionable at best.
#auspol
- a thread (1/n)
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The outlook for
@COP26
just got much more positive from my perspective!
I discovered that a 'COP26 - A New Dawn' tartan was registered in the Scottish Register of Tartans.
🏴🌏💚
Obviously a key step to an ambitious outcome!
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Thousands of pages of
@IPCC_CH
#ClimateReport
a bit too intimidating?
Just watch this 10-minute video that presents the latest assessment of the science of climate change.
🌍
#IPCC
presents latest
#ClimateReport
to
@UNFCCC
#COP26
today
➡️ This report has a more precise picture of how the climate system works
➡️ Human activities are causing
#climatechange
➡️ This science is essential to ongoing talks about future actions
-
#IPCC
Chair Hoesung Lee
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A fact that is often overlooked, even by experts, is that warming experienced today has already caused irreversible damage, for example, as sea level rise that will continue for millennia. /1
(see figure from
@IPCC_CH
report)
@PFriedling
@ProfMarkMaslin
@JoeriRogelj
@Climatevision
@ClimateCrisisAG
@IPCC_CH
2/ If we are aiming for certain temps (1.5 or 2) there may be some budget remaining. What CCAG is saying is that there is no carbon budget if you want to stop climate change now and avoid irreversible damage.
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Finally, very often the high cost of climate action is mentioned.
We now put these estimates in perspective and show how costs compare to baseline GDP growth and gains achieved by cleaning up the economy and avoiding climate change.
A quite compelling picture if you ask me. /19
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Lots of headlines about the press release by
@WMO
on the chances that global average temperature will be estimated at 1.5C in one of the next five years (👇)
Unfortunately, many are inaccurate
Here's why (1/n)
@JoeriRogelj
@CarlSchleussner
@BillHareClimate
@CONSTRAIN_EU
@BBCNews
REUTERS: The world faces a 50% chance of warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, if only briefly, by 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.
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Slightly misleading title on
#methane
story
@BBCNews
today.
Reductions of CO2 and CH4 are both urgent today to limit
#GlobalWarming
to the
#ParisAgreement
temperature goals and acting on methane won't buy us time for
#ClimateAction
on other emissions.
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Hi
#climatetwitter
, looking for key literature on geopolitical implications of
#climate
change impacts and of mitigation and low carbon transitions.
Which papers/books/scholars should I not miss?
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Breaking news on
#CO2
📢🔥🌍
The new
@gcarbonproject
emissions numbers are out with an analysis by
@CarbonBrief
What do the numbers tell us?
Spoiler alert: they are quite the party pooper for prospects of global peaking 🥳💩😢 (1)
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New study shows that energy needs for reaching decent levels of food, housing, cooling and heating, education, and mobility are far below the energy we use today globally.
They are no drag on
#ClimateAction
.
Congrats to
@JKikstra
for publishing the 1st paper of his
#PhD
! 👇(1/n)
This is *super* exciting! First paper of PhD out!
“Decent living gaps and energy needs around the world” is exciting academically AND gives some hope for the future!
Sound like a crazy combination? Read on… (1/n)
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Mark your calendars!
from Monday onwards,
@IPCC_CH
is meeting virtually to approve the Summary for Policymakers of the Physical Science assessment of its Sixth Assessment Report
🌍🌡️🌪️
3 years of immense work
2 weeks left before it can be released 9 August
-- keep tuned📻(1/3)
📢UPCOMING:
@IPCC_CH
will meet to approve the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report & accept the scientific technical assessment w/ focus on the physical science basis of
#climatechange
Discover more 🔗
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How can
#NetZero
targets be made rigorous, fair and transparent?
We published 10 guidelines that can help
Details are buried in the supplement of our
@nature
comment.
Here I'll be going through them, one per day
@COP26
@topnigel
@PEspinosaC
(1/n)
"Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix"
In a new
@Nature
piece we explain how countries & companies can set rigorous, fair and transparent net-zero targets.
Thread (1/n)
With
@Oliver_Geden
,
@CowieAnnette
&
@ReisingerAndy
(
@NatureNews
)
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*Great NEWS*
Today
@IEA
published its
#NetZero2050Roadmap
-a scenario that brings global CO2 emissions down to
#NetZero
by 2050.
This is the first time IEA presents a detailed picture of how the global economy can be transformed in line with 1.5C (1/n)
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New
#climatechange
study on what
#NetZero
targets bring for the climate
There's good news, and there is bad news
/1
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Look out for Monday: 3 years of work by an amazing author team finally concludes.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release the Working Group 1 Contribution to its Sixth Assessment Report on the physical science basis of climate change - IPCC WGI AR6 for short.
#IPCC
’s next
#ClimateReport
is due to be released on 9 August. The Working Group I report was prepared by a diverse team of 234 authors from all over the world.
🖊️ 234 authors
🗺️ 66 countries
📚 31% new to the IPCC
➡️
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In the heat of the RCP8.5 debate, one shouldn't forget the value of extreme scenarios.
In a new
@NatureEnergyJnl
commentary we call on the modelling community to explore scenario extremes as a way of understanding and preparing for an unknowable future:
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I'm often asked the what and why of
#NetZero
. Here, I cover the basics in a short explainer video for
@IPCC_CH
. 👇 🌍
Every tonne of carbon dioxide we add to the atmosphere adds to
#GlobalWarming
. To stabilize
#GlobalWarming
, we need emissions to reach
#NetZero
.
So, what does
#NetZero
mean?
#IPCC
scientist
@joeri_rogelj
explains…
Read more ➡️
Watch ⬇️
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#COP26
President
@AlokSharma_RDG
's
@COP26
team has done a stellar job to push the world as far as was currently possible.
It is not yet enough
It is as far as we got
It doesn't take away the urgency
We need to move
(end)
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New
#climate
paper 🚨
If models that are used to design
#mitigation
pathways would include the benefits of avoided climate damages, they show that we should do much more much earlier.
Many years of peer review struggle did not deter
@AnselmSchultes
leading this to publication.🙌
Out now: Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts with
@AnselmSchultes
, Franziska Piontek,
@JoeriRogelj
,
@GunnarLuderer
and others from
@PIK_Climate
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New research on climatechange litigation in
@ScienceMagazine
!
Climate targets that depend heavily on CO2 removal may contravene international law ⚖️🌍
Legal limits to the use of CO2 removal
With
@RupertS_Smith
Lavanya Rajamani and Thom Wetzer
Open acces👇
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What do COVID-19 lockdowns mean for the climate?
We looked at it and concluded:
potentially very little, but if we do things right during the recovery, half of the warming until 2050 can be avoided.
The paper:
The story:
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Did the IPCC report say that we are reaching 1.5ºC earlier than previously thought?
Most definitely not if you compare apples with apples 🍏🍎
via
@RealClimate
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THREAD: In a new study in
@nature
we present a way to avoid the bias that burdens future generations and the risky strategies that current
#climate
change mitigation pathways suffer from.
A
#climatetwitter
explainer
#Fridays4Future
#ClimateStrike
#ParisAgreement
(1/n)
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Almost a decade after helping
@Knutti_ETH
calculating carbon budgets for the IPCC's 2013 report (👇), they now feature in the
#COP26
decision.
A nice illustration of how IPCC is key for connecting science to policy.
How to Slice a Global Carbon Pie? (NYT 2013)
by
@JustinHGillis
PS: "Knutti kept a graduate student awake all night at his home institution". It was
@JoeriRogelj
of course, doing absolutely essential work already then, and now even more!
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Current emissions are not on track for keeping warming to the goals of the Paris Agreement,
finds the
@UNEP
#EmissionsGap
report
What does that mean for 1.5°C?
Is everything lost?
Here I look at the consequences of each year of delay
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“The credibility and feasibility of the net-zero emission pledges remains very uncertain” /17
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In a new paper in
@ScienceMagazine
we estimate the effect of pledges!
Promises end up around 2°C and importantly the possibility of warming beyond 4°C would be eliminated.
However, for now these are just promises. And 2°C warming is still not a world I would like to live in.👇
🚨New paper in
@ScienceMagazine
“Can updated climate pledges limit warming to well below 2°C?”
with
@PNNLab
@EPA
@CtrGlobSust
@climateactiontr
@ClimateCollege
We estimate the probability of staying under 2 degrees has increased a lot since Paris.
🧵👇
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Important to remember:
Under current policies there remains a 1-in-5 chance that warming ends up beyond 3C until the end of the century, continuing to increase thereafter.
In the best of worlds with all net zero targets there is a similar chance for warming still exceeding 2C /18
3
28
88
A lost decade of
#climate
inaction.
The absence of meaningful emissions reductions and the harder hitting climate impacts and risks mean we have now four time the work, or just one-third the time for limiting
#ClimateChange
change to acceptable and safe levels.
2
54
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Tomorrow 16 Jan 2024, delegates from over 190 countries meet in Istanbul for the
@IPCC_CH
's 60th plenary session.
It will be the first session under new chair
@JimSkeaIPCC
and will decide on which reports will be written by when.
7
19
88
A flurry of announcements were made at
#COP28
. What do they deliver?
Turns out promised actions largely overlap with earlier pledges, some could reduce emissions, but most lack ambition to make a difference.
Some are also only greenwashing.
A
@climateactiontr
analysis👇
ANALYSIS: what impact will the
#COP28
announcements make on closing the emissions gap?
Few of them will do so meaningfully.
Many either lack the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to make a difference /🧵
[from the *actual* CAT]
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1) science
For the first time ever, scientific evidence is included as a key framing of the various COP decisions. This is historic and includes strong messages on the scientific requirements as identified by
@IPCC_CH
to keep warming to 1.5C.
(2/n)
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Trying to understand the carbon budget estimates of the latest
@IPCC_CH
report?
The code used by in the 2021 IPCC Climate Science Report for estimating the remaining carbon budget is now open-sourced and available here 👇
Enjoy! 🌍💚🖥️
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EXPLAINER: new projections for the next 5 years by
@metoffice
and
@WMO
indicate that there's a high chance that one of these years is 1.5°C warmer than average preindustrial levels.
What does this mean?
A short explainer.
#ClimateAction
(1/n)
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The emissions gap in 2030 is 15 GtCO2e annually for a 2C pathway and 23 GtCO2e for a 1.5C pathway.
This assumes full implementation of the unconditional NDCs, and is for a 66 per cent chance of staying below the stated temperature limit. /4
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If you want to read the entire report, check it out online:
/21
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What will the
#GlobalMethanePledge
bring
@COP26
?
We did calculations with the
@IPCC_CH
calibrated climate emulators and found that the pledge might reduce near term warming but less than is often touted.
@CarbonBrief
NEW - Guest post: The Global Methane Pledge needs to go further to help limit warming to 1.5C |
@piersforster
@chrisroadmap
@JoeriRogelj
#COP26
Read:
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Ever woken up feeling like you want to do something about climate change?
@Grantham_IC
compiled a list of 9 things we can do as individuals.
#climatechange
#Fridays4Future
And yes, talking about it is the very first thing on the list!
@KHayhoe
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A single year hitting 1.5C doesn't mean the Paris limits are breached, but is nevertheless very bad news.
The
@MetOffice_Sci
&
@WMO
project a high chance that one of the next five years are temporarily 1.5C warmer than preindustrial.
by
@davidshukmanbbc
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The first ever fully virtual
#IPCC
Lead Author Meeting is kicking off today!
An example of how
#COVID19
disruption is both posing challenges and spurring innovation for
@IPCC_CH
Looking forward to a trail-blazing, productive & effective meeting with colleagues around the world
#IPCC
Working Group III will hold its first virtual Lead Author Meeting on 14–19 April 2020.
More than 270 experts from 65 countries will come together online for one week to start preparing a second draft of the report, currently due to be finalized in September 2021.
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What if we stop emissions now? What if we stopped building any further climate polluting infrastructure? What if we want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees?
One set of answers can be found in our new publication:
#climatechange
#climateaction
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Today, the
@esabcc_eu
published its advice for the
@EU_Commission
's
#2040ClimateTarget
proposal and accompanying
#GreenhouseGasEmissionsBudget
Interested in how the advice was developed?
Here’s a slightly longer explainer of the underlying report
🧵
1/n
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Launched today: annual updates of key indicators of global climate change.
Using methods from the latest
@IPCC_CH
assessment and the latest available data, we paint a picture of where the planer is heading under climate change. (1/n)
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Countries’ new and updated pledges (NDCs) submitted since COP26 reduce projected global GHG emissions in 2030 by only 0.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared with projections based on pledges at the time of COP26.
Some pledges result in even higher emissions /2
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It includes required emissions reductions of -45% by 2030, and the need of reaching net zero.
The one bitter pill here is the last minute change from a "phase-out" to a "phase-down" of unabated coal power - very uncool and irresponsible
(3/n)
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New study shows the inequity between children and adults in carrying the burden of climate extremes.
We lay bare the fundamental injustice of climate change across generations, as well as the responsibilities of today's adults in power. (1/n)
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How much global warming is still in the pipeline if all countries meet their climate pledges?
And how much if we only believe the most credible ones?
In a recent paper in
@ScienceMagazine
we look for answers to this question
New paper alert: 🚨🌍🌡️🔥
What do climate pledges mean for global warming?
Simple question, confusing answers.
In a new study in
@ScienceMagazine
we shine a new light on this question. (1/n)
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I have 3999 followers - who wants to be number 4000?
This would then bring my climate change social media influencing power to the majestic level of just below 0.001
@GretaThunberg
's ! lol😄
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Lots of variations yet a clear message: for limiting warming to 1.5°C, global net CO2 emissions produced by human activities should aim for zero by mid-century, and also emissions from methane have to be kept in check and reduced.
#SR15
@IPCC_CH
#ClimateAction
#climatechange
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When a professional shows you how it's done.
@sdbernard
redrew my
@COP26
visualisation of how current pledges exhaust carbon budgets in line with 1.5C for a story by
@CamillaHodgson
and
@lesliehook
A marked improvement! 👇
This week's climate graphic looks at what emissions cuts are needed to keep warming to 1.5C by 2100. Sadly, even with the most optimistic
#COP26Glasgow
pledges and
#NetZero
targets we are falling well short
Read
@CamillaHodgson
and
@lesliehook
's article
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Altogether these updates mean AR6 remaining carbon budget estimates are very similar compared to SR1.5.
Bottom line of this long thread: these budgets are small, our current ~40 GtCO2/yr emissions are reducing them rapidly, and all require CO2 to decline to net zero. (23/n)
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We show that the 12.2 trillion USD in pledged
#COVID19
recovery is roughly double the amount of all low-carbon energy investments required globally over the next five years to put the world on track for a 1.5°C pathway. (3/n)
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🚨paper alert on green investment🚨
To align portfolios with the Paris Agreement, investors need to know the emissions of companies they invest in.
Estimating these should start from a precautionary principle that disincentivizes free-riding and protects the planet. (1/3)
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Are you interested in climate change mitigation and do you fancy a dive into spaghetti graphs? The scenario database compiled for
@IPCC_CH
#SR15
is now online, with do's and don'ts discussed in the accompanying
@NatureClimate
commentary.
@IIASAVienna
@Grantham_IC
#climatechange
The Scenario Database for the
@IPCC_CH
1.5°C Report is now available. Go to
@natureclimate
to read all about it … and then go here for the database …
@IIASAVienna
#ipcc
#SR15
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