JJ the Janitor
@JJjanitor
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Trader. Head of Crypto Options and Derivatives @HighStrikeInc . Access daily trade signals, indicators, watchlists, and live analysis 👇
Joined July 2022
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Rumor has it they’re also believers in the 50-year storm scheduled for 2024
“And when it hits
#Bitcoin
beach, it’ll turn into the biggest surf this planet has ever seen, and I will be there.“
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Crypto Twitter: Bankruptcy Tour 2022
It’s been a harsh year, but we’re all still on this bus together 😅 and there’s nowhere else I’d rather be
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The end of an era and the beginning of a new
Excited to announce that I’ve officially joined
@HighStrikeInc
as the head of crypto options and derivatives trading
Beginning next Monday July 15th, I’ll be live with HighStrike’s highly skilled team of proprietary traders where
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May-June was the most active $ETH spot whales have been since December 2022 bottom post-FTX
Add to that the recent call buying frenzy and its looking good if the government (both the SEC and $DXY) play along this summer
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Senor Pablo and the Bitfinex cartel are the definition of smart money
Year after year, cycle after cycle, institutions or no institutions, they're the ones in and out of their $BTC positions before the rest of the crowd catches up
Fade them at your own peril
Bitfinex spot $BTC trading at a $500+ discount to Coinbase and their short OI +300 BTC today 🧐
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$BTC puts are trading at their highest premiums since January and options dealers are heavily short the 60k strike
If this isn't the bottom be prepared for much lower
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Some parallels here with the
@PANDAterminal
chart
@MrBenLilly
shared yesterday
When big boys want $BTC spot filled they sell futures contracts to bring price into bids
When they're filled + ready to let it rip they close those shorts, hence the inverse correlation on True OI
The $BTC ETF inflows didn't affect the price as much as you hoped it would?
It might be due to a carry trade being loaded up. Short Futures + Buy Spot/ETF
It would help explain the increasing funding rates, the down only Futures' CVDs since ATH, yet the strong Bitfinex and
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The reason why you *think* you can’t trade options well is because nobody’s taught you how to cheat (hedge) properly
Why do you think HFs and institutions are so good at options? It’s because they cheat all the time
Our educational series fixes this
100's of videos talk about the benefits of options.
Only 1 explains how use them to master the 2024 crypto bull cycle.
pay attention 👇
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Much of this is likely owed to $BTC options sellers who are still short large amounts of calls 68-70k expiring this week
As price surpasses their sold strikes they have to add long exposure in order to remain delta neutral
I can't help but have the feeling that $BTC is trading like someone knows something.
A billion $ in open interest got added in the past couple hours. It's mostly this leverage that pushed us higher I think.
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1K
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Goodnight sweet prince
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Even after yesterdays wipe-out $BTC future open interest remains just under ATH levels at $6b
These high OI levels often precede large swings in volatility, and yet the options market is still telling us there will be no summer vol.
A curious divergence
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Happy new year lads
$BTC bid-ask ratio on Coinbase is now the highest it's been since early September at <$25k 👁️
Join us in the trading pit live stream tomorrow morning at 930am where we'll discuss all things market structure and January outlook 👇
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When the ETH/BTC bottom finally comes we’ll see it in the volume as we did in 21 and 22
This pair has been extremely low volume since the pre-merge hype trade began, which tells me theres a lot of people holding $ETH who haven’t capitulated yet
High volume bottom = capitulation
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The last time our DXY risk rating metric gave us 7+ consecutive days worth of dark green signal was the final week of November
Just before a major CB sell wall was removed and we hit the leg up from 36 to 44k
Let's see if the current sell wall follows suit again into EOY
One wall left standing between us and freedom
Mr Gorbachev,,,
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Last 4 dollar death crosses (50-d < 200-d):
1. Earlier this month
2. Last January, ~8 weeks before Silicon Valley Bank run
3. July 2020
4. January 2020, ~8 weeks before COVID crash
Should be a very bullish year for BTC, but don't be surprised if there's more Q1 turbulence ahead
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Place your bets 😉
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Bad day to have been short $MSTR gamma
$MSTR
Interesting strength on a down day for $BTC
If the name of the game is squeezing over-shorted memestocks I like this to outperform to the upside again if BTC can break out >$65k
Need $DXY to play along post-CPI, Market Makers fighting to stuff it below gamma at 1280
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It’s been incredible watching the amount of work our team has put into making Panda Terminal the perfect all-in-one hub for crypto trading over the past few years
Take read through some of the features in the thread below and get ready for public beta launch
🔜🐼👇
Your new workplace has arrived..
From the team behind Jlabs Digital, we bring you
PANDA Terminal
Portal for ANalysis and DAta. Here are some of its features
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CB bid wall continues to hold, which is the only thing preventing <40k
But you can see they're using it to twap sell (volume bars)
Either they'll remove the wall after getting fills and <40k will follow, or we'll reach seller exhaustion and move towards 44k. Bullish volatility
Selling into a brick wall of spot bids with no asks above typically doesn't have a good ending
Especially with DXY still rejecting off the 200-day
Let's see if late shorts get punished into the end of Jan 🍿
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$BTC RSI on the W the lowest its been since early October when price was sub-$30k
Daily the lowest since August 2023 crash
If it can't bounce from here call an ambulance and a career counselor
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It's over.
We are back.
$BVIV
He who picks bottoms gets smelly fingers, but this finally looks ready to reset in July
Bring back the vol
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$BTC down a bit on Gox news this am but trend looks up into end of month
$ETH knocking on the door of $4k
$DXY meanwhile is fading back to range lows
All signs setting up for a big June
Come kick off the week w
@MrBenLilly
and I the pit to unpack
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Strong $DXY continuing to crush crypto prices and volatility 💤
The beating will continue until liquidity conditions improve (soon pls for the sake of our mental health)
DXY > 50d SMA
Risk-on assets will have to overcome $USD strength
$DXY key levels:
🟢Establish support >105.5 (currently above) -> HTF resistance 106.4
⚠️Close < LTF support level (50d SMA) 105.2
🔴Weekly close <200d SMA 104.5 -> HTF support range 103.5
@JStanleyFX
has
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$BTC whale wallets - focused, flourishing, in their lane, unbothered, still stacking
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Red dots show
#BTC
whales have been accumulating since mid-april, our first sightings of them since the bottom of March's crash
Not something you typically see at a cycle top
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Hot off the presses!
I saw a lot of people talking about BTC open interest on Twitter but not many provided much analysis to go with it, so I tried my best here
If you enjoyed please share & RT. I’d really like to earn that pizza
Have a great Sunday 🙂
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Down goes the $BTC 200-d without much of a fight
This move was pretty well telegraphed by the repeat weakness post June FOMC and relentless $DXY strength for the past month
Also not a coincidence global liquidity levels are now at their lowest since July 2020 (h/t
$BTC
$DXY
It aint looking good folks, would want to see these reverse by next week otherwise that 200-d MA is looking like a target
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The chad candle we wanted - $BTC to 75k
The chad candle we got - $DXY back to monthly open
C'est la vie
$DXY hold on to your butts, here comes the 200-day MA retest
Accept above = market going risk off now through next week's CPI + FOMC
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Finex whales bidding spot + non-stop call buying yesterday while 100x shorts piled in at the lows
🤷♂️
I suppose you could say there were signs
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The whale wallet + miner distribution rally that began in late May turned into market wide capitulation throughout the end of June as all $BTC wallet sizes have been net sellers for the past 17 days
Orange dots when??
$BTC whale wallets have been in distributing spot since price bottomed out in May
Unlikely we see a meaningful move back above >70k until their interest returns
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$DXY break-out getting cleaner and cleaner
Next stop could be Oct highs at ~107.50
Last time it was in that region bonds, gold, crypto, and asset prices fell under stress
Something to beware of with MOVE looking like it found a bottom, + gold and ES reaching over bot territory
$DXY 1D chart
DXY is approaching upside momentum level - 104.80
🟢Reclaim Feb monthly highs > 104.90 -> 105.90
⚠️Failed reclaim of MTF resistance - 104.30
🔴Close below golden cross support - 103.70
DXY strength = bearish for risk-on assets
DXY weakness = bullish for risk-on
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Dollar bleeding
$BTC coinbase premium picking up slightly
When squeeze?
MS2 Friday Follow Up
✔️DXY breaking down?
✔️BTC < 200d SMA
✔️ETH < 200d SMA
✔️SOL < 200d SMA
✔️Soft CPI Data
$DXY
🟢Reclaim 105.5 -> retest resistance 106.4
⚠️Close below 50d SMA = weakness
🔴Close below 200d SMA -> 103.5
Follow
@JJjanitor
for timely market updates on the
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After the ATH break in 2020 50-rsi retest on the daily preceded that cycle's 4 biggest upside moves
Have been hovering above it now since March 19th, let's see
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$BTC whale wallets have been in distributing spot since price bottomed out in May
Unlikely we see a meaningful move back above >70k until their interest returns
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$DXY bouncing back from oversold on the D and Tardfi looking risky ($VIX ramp)
Be careful partying too hard with leverage above 70k, need a favorable CPI print tomorrow morning for the fun to continue
Dollar Index $DXY on 18H
📈DXY must reclaim its 100 SMA - 103.48
⚠️DXY loses its LTF support - 102.35
📉Death Cross confirmation - 103.77
Potential death cross (50 SMA crossing below 200 SMA) on 18H
Shout out to
@JLabsJanitor
who's been all over $DXY - has been watching
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Big week for $DXY on deck with FOMC and pivotal Q1 close drawing near
My simplest advice if you're going to try and trade ahead of it is to use options rather than perps. All stops in both directions will likely be taken over the next few days
Helmets on boys. Helmets on
$DXY 1D chart
DXY is approaching an important inflection point.
🟢Reclaim 200 SMA - 103.7
⚠️DXY fails to reclaim 50 SMA - 103.5
🔴100 SMA becomes downtrend resistance
DXY strength = bearish for risk-on assets
DXY weakness = bullish for risk-on assets
Follow
@JLabsJanitor
for
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Quick $BTC options market update before you head out for the weekend
Beware the changing tide, and be cautious if long short dated calls expecting an immediate reversal
Seems like we're in prime territory for premium burn these next few weeks
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Since $BTC topped last month short volatility has been the winning options trade
A trend that may now be running on borrowed time
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2024 is shaping up to be a big year for $BTC and the options market is more relevant than ever before
Together with
@Coincall_Global
we put together this video to give you an inside view and framework for trading options pre- and post- halving
Enjoy 🤙
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Selling into a brick wall of spot bids with no asks above typically doesn't have a good ending
Especially with DXY still rejecting off the 200-day
Let's see if late shorts get punished into the end of Jan 🍿
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$BTC 100x liquidity pools past 7 days
If you would've told me at the beginning of the year that wed trade >70k pre-halving, then have a liquidation run on negative funding the week of with this much short OI back at the highs I simply would not have believed you
Yet here we are
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Insane to me that I’m nearly at 2,000 followers on this website
Shocked and honored, big thanks to everyone who’s been following along
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Price up
Open interest up
Funding negative
Indicating shorts are fighting hard to keep price suppressed here
Cmon $BTC and do the thing (regain trend and squeeze)
@AltCBuy
Think we still have some chop ahead into the end of the month, this still looks like a backtest of lost trend lines that drove the Feb-March rally
Reconquer these on volume and its off to the races, especially if paired with DXY <105
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Notable spot premiums been showing up on Bitfinex past few days 🧐
Tether / Bitfinex cartel margin longs / margin shorts
Super bullish. We go higher.
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⚠️
DXY looking strong after CPI with 50-rsi breached, don't get caught on the wrong side if this continues to rip through PPI readings tomorrow morning
No reversal, no 50k
The only scenario that could make me bullish into Feb would be if ETF is approved + CPI comes in cooler than expected on Thurs, sending this to new lows
If CPI pushes it above the 200-d @ 103.45 I think any additional ETF pump (if there is one) will unfortunately be short lived
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Big wave come soon 🙏 🤞🕊️ $BVIV
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$BTC
$DXY
It aint looking good folks, would want to see these reverse by next week otherwise that 200-d MA is looking like a target
MS2 Friday Follow Up
Here's where we stand:
✔️BTC clinging to little root🌱
✔️DXY > 50d SMA
✔️June FOMC
✔️Economic Data
✔️ETH weak sauce
$BTC key levels:
🟢Reclaim and establish support >$68.6K
⚠️Price action fails to reclaim LTF resistance
🔴Weekly close below 50d SMA at
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The strong $DXY just won't leave us alone
Below we see a nice inverse correlation between $BVIV (Bitcoin implied vol index) which has fallen off cliff since the dollar bottomed last month
Seems like nothing but more chop ahead until we see what the fed decides to do next week
Dollar Index and Oil
@MrBenLilly
discussed a potential setup for DXY weakness and its correlation to oil.
⛽️US30Y + Oil has shown a high correlation
🚢Measures taken to push the price of oil lower
📊Could weakness in $USOIL lead to $DXY decline?
@JLabsJanitor
emphasized the
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$BTC bounced $1k after dropping by $10k
$DXY making higher low after higher low
Reversion squeeze ahead or is this the best we’re gonna get until July?
Join
@MrBenLilly
@MarconiWight
and I for your weekly Tuesday group therapy session
Live stream
@xChanging_Good
$BTC RSI on the W the lowest its been since early October when price was sub-$30k
Daily the lowest since August 2023 crash
If it can't bounce from here call an ambulance and a career counselor
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$MSTR shorts refused to cover when the given the opportunity last week at $1200
If $BTC accepts back above $70,000 now this is going to get ugly
$MSTR
Few folks have asked for an update...
Its overextended and dealers want to pin it below 1800 gamma wall, but there are still trapped shorts begging for a <1000 exit
BTC's moves into and after FOMC will determine whether or not they get it, potentially more pain ahead
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Whale wallets have been binge buying all the sub-50k $BTC they can get
Probably nothing
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$BTC liquidity pools 🌊 👁️
Sum of new positions entered since Sunday
Majority of longs wiped, and a whole lot of shorts vulnerable back above $70,000
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Gm and Happy belated Christmas
The CB ask wall has fallen from >1.05k
#BTC
(~$44m) on Friday to just ~365 BTC (~$15.5m) today
Some spot bids also entering now just below the current trading range
Time to send it?
The last time our DXY risk rating metric gave us 7+ consecutive days worth of dark green signal was the final week of November
Just before a major CB sell wall was removed and we hit the leg up from 36 to 44k
Let's see if the current sell wall follows suit again into EOY
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F 🫡
Do not short vol into a range break
Do not short vol into a range break
Do not short vol into a range break
Do not short vol into a range break
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$BTC 100x liquidity pools entered since June 1
Plenty of reasons to be bearish here, but the short side is currently over-leveraged and over-crowded
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3 weeks after the top of the 2020-2021 ATH rally $BTC drifted back to the 50-day MA, then price 2x'd in 2 weeks
This Thursday will mark 3-weeks since the top of the ATH rally, with the 50-day currently sitting $62,700
Let's pray for another touch and run
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Vol showing signs of life as $BTC falls to the bottom of range
Large blocks of 60k and 59k puts expiring Friday sitting at 60k and 59k
Will the range finally break, or does Jerome give us fuel for another squeeze?
Join
@MrBenLilly
and I to discuss
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Over 10,000
#BTC
worth of calls added to open interest on the 2-16 and 4-26 expiries each within the past 5 days 👀
Options market has gone from boring to full throttle
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Short put gamma getting squeezed on both $BTC and $ETH with price down + IV up on both
Only one man can save us now
Vol showing signs of life as $BTC falls to the bottom of range
Large blocks of 60k and 59k puts expiring Friday sitting at 60k and 59k
Will the range finally break, or does Jerome give us fuel for another squeeze?
Join
@MrBenLilly
and I to discuss
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$DXY hold on to your butts, here comes the 200-day MA retest
Accept above = market going risk off now through next week's CPI + FOMC
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Interesting CVD divergence playing out between spot $BTC and perps on Binance that
@MrBenLilly
spotted on
@pandaterminal
🤨
Join us this morning to discuss
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$BTC rejecting off resistance
$DXY bouncing off support
Looks like some more chopsolidation ahead until we clear >$65-$67k or <$62k-$60k on volume
Quick options market update and some contracts to keep an eye on while this range resolves itself👇
MS2 Monday Cheat Sheet
Here's what we're watching this week:
✔️DXY weakness
✔️Bitcoin lower high or higher low?
✔️US SPR and OIL
✔️Solana
✔️Eigen Sentiment + Ethereum
✔️Macro Signal - $BRK
Will $DXY reclaim its LTF resistance range?
📈Flip LTF resistance range to support
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$BTC looking heavier and heavier
If 60k fails to hold this week this 200-day retest will become inevitable
Just a matter of how many shorts we squeeze out first and how much volatility we'll experience to the downside
$BTC
$DXY
It aint looking good folks, would want to see these reverse by next week otherwise that 200-d MA is looking like a target
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Had the pleasure of catching up with the mad genius
@ColeGarnersTake
on a call last week where he walked me through some of these metrics he's built such as this Asset Rotation Aperture
High signal 🔥 🎯 looking forward to more meetings to come
1/ Capital rotation needs a better way to connect the dots.
So I built one. Open source, released today 👇
Introducing Asset Rotation Aperture
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He who picks bottoms gets smelly fingers, but this finally looks ready to reset in July
Bring back the vol
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$ETHE 🥰
$ETHE back in the buy zone
Discount to NAV (-25%) hasn't been this steep since prior to Grayscale winning the SEC case
Good value area to go directionally long or run the cash and carry trade shorting $ETH futures against it if risk adverse into FOMC
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BTC still rejecting off its weekly 200-day MA
Be cautious until fully reclaimed, but when/if it does there'll nothing but fresh Wyoming air up above
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$BTC bids stacking up just below price on the Binance orderbook
Could be a TWAP sell tactic, but in any event I'd be cautious against shorting into a brick wall like this after a -10% down move has already happened
FUD or no FUD, strong DXY or not. Usually doesn't end well
50x (left) and 100x (right) $BTC liquidity pools entered within the past week
Longs cleared out....late shorts next?
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Consolidation continues on $BTC $ETH and $DXY as we head into tomorrow's massive OpEx, PCE report, and monthly close/open
Doesn't seem like a market that will remain boring too much longer
Join
@benjamin_skew
and I to discuss positioning into June 👇
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Exciting week in the world of $ETH options for a change
Have a read on it below 👇
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If you stay alive in markets long enough you'll see the same patterns repeat themselves 1000xs in 1000 different ways
Time is a flat circle
Just over a month ago,
@JLabsJanitor
called for
✅ $48K FOMO
✅ Perps to Overheat
✅ Liquidation Run Back to $40K
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Good morning
$DXY losing the 200-day and 50-rsi in pre-market action....big week of macro data ahead that will drive its reaction into the end of month
Another 200-day MA + D and W 50-rsi retest for $DXY
Flush it? Please?
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“Everytime you see these incredibly sharp downturns what that is to me is a signal that people are absolutely skeptical, negative, and to a certain extent frightened….and yet the market won’t break. It is screaming to me that it wants to go higher” - PTJ
BTC > 28k
DXY < 102
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@benjamin_skew
With $BVOL (realized $BTC volatility) encroaching on all time lows
$BVIV implied volatility consolidating around 50 for 2 months
And Q3 IVs trading at a -20% discount to last month
Quarterly calls are certainly looking enticing if/when we get the signal 🫡
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Not a good sign seeing $DXY recovering the entirety of yesterday's FOMC dump
If something has every reason to fall to new lows, and instead closes the week at new highs you have to ask yourself what the market is signaling to you
❓
What if... Powell was dovish because:
The Fed knows there's something coming down the pike that will humble markets.
The Powell you think you're getting vs the Powell you're actually getting.
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Since the fed began hiking in 2022 we've had a liquidity event every ~6 months like clockwork
1. Sept 2022 - gilt market breaks
2. Mar 2023 - SVB collapse
3. Sept 2023 - bond market sell off leads to $1tril injection from RRP + parabolic asset rally
Is crisis
#4
on deck for q2?
$DXY break-out getting cleaner and cleaner
Next stop could be Oct highs at ~107.50
Last time it was in that region bonds, gold, crypto, and asset prices fell under stress
Something to beware of with MOVE looking like it found a bottom, + gold and ES reaching over bot territory
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$BTC pumping directly into tonight's opex max pain point 😂
House wins again
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We recently put together some options metric tutorial videos for our friends
@GreeksLive
that showcase their profit visualization tools
These tools are as useful for seasoned options traders as they are beginners
Check them out below!
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Decision time soon for $BTC
Still making higher lows and holding on to 50-rsi despite every macro reason to sell off lower
Delayed reaction or sign of strength 🤔
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$MSTR
Few folks have asked for an update...
Its overextended and dealers want to pin it below 1800 gamma wall, but there are still trapped shorts begging for a <1000 exit
BTC's moves into and after FOMC will determine whether or not they get it, potentially more pain ahead
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If this is another $DXY high low into support $BTC could lose the 200-day MA support rather rapidly
Sustained downside move to <104.5 after CPI next week should clear the way for a short squeeze rally, possibly up to as high as the 66k mark
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Will be a truly enchanted moment if BTC can break ATHs on the same day that I get passed 2k follower resistance and
@xChanging_Good
hits 1k
Manifesting 🙏
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Make hay while the sun shines, but beware of the sling-shot effect
Think we see something similar here in Q1, , possibly as soon as mid to late January, that washes most leverage out of crypto + tardfi and provides great entry points for 2024
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We did it! Pizzas all around
Ape’s are smashing the follow button on JJ to turbo nuk him to 1k followers. Cannot wait to find out what pizza he orders.
@JLabsJanitor
what’s the order?
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Thank you for your service Bitfinex whales 🫡
Rest now, Fink and the boys are on the job.
We'll see you in 2025-2026 after tardfi leverage causes another bear market
Bitfinex Longs, Bitcoin’s plunge protection team
Our footsteps in the sand during time of trouble
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This Whale wallet accumulation pattern I began pointing out in May has yet to cease despite the huge move up over the past two weeks
On today's Alpha Bites with
@MarconiWight
I'll unpack the significance of their multi-month buying frenzy and what it could mean for price into Q3
Bitcoin price struggles to find footing above $27,000, but
@JLabsJanitor
says BTC whales are counter-trading US dollar $DYX strength.
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Will 2023 be the year of ETH's next big move?
In todays essay I reviewed multiple metrics that are all suggesting the answer to that question will be YES
But first, a crucial battle with $1,700 resistance looms.
Let's scroll through some charts below...
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Compression continues with $BTC price approaching a 5th straight week trapped between the 50-D and 100-D MAs (minus a couple short lived wicks)
Have a read on it from an options perspective and bookmark May 22nd for our live event w
@Coincall_Global
👇👀
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If $BTC wants to make a move to take out these liquidation pools resting above 44k it'll first have to change momentum by reconquering 50-rsi on the D and the 50-day MA at 42.9k
The longer we hang out below, the greater the odds of <40k become
Strong $DXY not helping
@xChanging_Good
I keep it simple (because I'm stupid) and gauge strength based on the 50-RSI mark on D and W, above it - clear risk on, below it risk off
Right now divergence of overextended above on the W, while below on the D. The longer <50 on the D the more likely retest 50 on the W becomes
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Big spot sell volume on CB above 50k
Likely in large part due to cash and carry traders having to take profit on spot to off-set derivative losses on their short calls/futures
Be careful if holding long perp positions as this trade unwinds, things can get slippery quick
Looks like footprints of the cash and carry trade we discussed in the pit this morning
True OI is also currently showing that we've seen an increase of +430mil in new positions since Jan 31 despite price falling
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Stubborn $DXY still hanging on to that higher low and 50-RSI mark on the W chart
Still a bit weary of risk here as we've already seen it V back to new highs twice in 2024
Patiently waiting for a breakdown below 104 in late May/early June to confirm its uptrend is over
Great shows Gents - valuable insights from
@MrBenLilly
and challenging questions from
@MarconiWight
🙏
Despite the last 24hr of price action
@JLabsJanitor
expressed caution around current $DXY structure:
Important levels to watch:
🐂Below 105 is bullish
🚀Sub 100 level is
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Binance's sell wall of Jericho is the only thing standing between us and infinity
I would like it if they simply removed these orders
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Interesting confluence between high leverage short liquidity pools and dealer short call positioning on $BTC above 52k
They're doing a good job of keeping this resistance firm, but if ETFs bring in enough buy volume in this week a move from 52.5k to 55k+ could happen rapidly
$BTC options dealers are still protecting their sold gamma positions at $52k after getting burned a bit on their short $50k call positions last week
Will likely require a strong catalyst for price to break above here until their positioning changes
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