Greg Zumach
@IvyFutures
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Cubs MiLB and MLB draft. Find me on backfields in Omaha. Cut-ride and gyrospin fastballs. Co-founder and writer: Co-host: Cubs on Deck
473 miles from Wrigley Field
Joined December 2020
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Ever wanted to pull back the curtain on a major league team’s draft strategy? Are you curious about what the Cubs are planning to do now that they took seven high schoolers on day 3?
#Cubs
VP of Scouting, Dan Kantrovitz breaks it down.
Full episode here:
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Kyle Hendricks officially hits 10 years of service time and earns 10/5 rights today. Congrats to a player who has etched his name into Cubs history.
WS winner, Game 7 starter, 3rd in 2016 NL Cy Young, 94-74 record with a 3.61 ERA in over 1500 innings all with the Cubs.
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Unfortunately it appears Scott Boras saw his shadow this morning. There will be six more weeks of free agency.
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No thanks I’ll skip the coffee, this clip of Daniel Palencia and Miguel Amaya has me wired enough already.
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Imagine you’re a Cubs fan waking up from a three-year coma to see these pictures gracing your timeline
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Ten years ago the 2013 Red Sox combined a handful of homegrown players with savvy 1-2 year deals. It was a team that didn’t enter the year as a juggernaut, but they were the perfect storm of talent and chemistry.
Yes it’s outlandish, but the 2023 Cubs are giving me those vibes.
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If you’ve watched Jed Hoyer over the past few years discuss players in response to questions about negotiations, this feels very, very different in tone.
“Belli knows how we feel about him.”
Jed Hoyer on Cody Bellinger.
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Ultimately it may be a route the Cubs take, but if the Cubs decide to mix things up and trade Nico Hoerner it will be a rude adjustment to be watching even a solid defensive 2B. Hoerner is spectacular out there.
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This Cubs team needs a lockdown closer.
Be willing to pay up to get it. Everyone else in the pen sliding down a peg can only help.
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Dansby Swanson has been exactly the player the Cubs were hoping he’d be
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ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the Cubs 2nd among all farm systems. Here’s how the Cubs stack up with major publications…
FanGraphs: 2nd
ESPN: 2nd
Pipeline: 4th
Baseball America: 6th
And most importantly the 2023 club bought (not sold) at the deadline and is in the playoff hunt.
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The Cubs continue to acquire giant pitching prospects with 6’8” Jack Neely. He has a good slider and is MLB ready. Baseball America had him ranked in their Top 30 Yankees prospects. He’s a 2024 and beyond play for the Cubs.
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2014: Theo Epstein on the Cardinals receiving a Competitive Balance pick, “Last organization that needs an annual gift”
2021: Theo Epstein begins work with MLB as consultant
2023: Cardinals no longer meet criteria for Comp pick
The Competitive Balance rounds for the 2023 Draft are set.
Here are the teams who will receive picks:
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The Atlanta Braves fans have a ton to celebrate. Their team is amazing, but the small subset of Braves fans attacking Dansby Swanson saying he wasn’t worth his contract are laughable.
Come on now. Celebrate the memories and be excited for the team you have now.
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Good morning!
Dansby Swanson is on pace for a .274/.368/.433 (.353 wOBA), 17 home run, 123 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR season
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The Chicago Cubs have some work to do this winter, but trying to figure out the future is a lot easier with prospects at the top of the rankings.
The brand new MLB Pipeline Top 100 shows off a lot of good news with eight ranked prospects.
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It is very possible that Mike Tauchman just cemented the fact that the Cubs should be buyers this deadline.
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Friday night of the Cubs Convention: the players and co are introduced. Clark the Cub is high-fiving kids.
Pat Hughes yells out "This feels like a REAL turning point!"
Clark rips his mascot head off revealing he is Cody Bellinger. The fans erupt, while children scream in horror.
Imagine Jed Hoyer walking out at Cubs Con this weekend with Cody Bellinger.
Dexter Fowler 2015 spring training style but in front of all the fans.
Would be unreal.
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Jeimer Candelario being projected for a 2 year/$15m (total) contract would be a no-brainer for this 2024 Cubs team. He immediately upgrades 3B, 1B, and DH without preventing the club from continuing to upgrade at any of those spots.
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Maybe it’s the wine talking but I’m pretty excited about the 2023 Chicago Cubs
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Andrew Baggarly was on MLB Network and mentioned that Kris Bryant is unlikely to come back to SF and the Giants weren’t very impressed with KB, especially defensively at 3B/CF/RF. Also notes the swing won’t age well.
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Oh yes. Make that six Top 100 prospects according to Fangraphs.
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I’ll say it again, it’s time to get Brennen Davis to the majors. He’s on a heater and, frankly, he deserves it.
BRENNEN. DAVIS. GRAND. SLAM. Five homers in his last six games and six in his last eight.
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Guess who’s back where he belongs. Kevin Alcántara is (officially) a Top 100 prospect.
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I feel like we need to be talking more about Drew Gilbert being a top 10 overall pick candidate.
Put up a .362/.455/.673 line with a 1:1 BB to K ratio while playing superb CF all in the SEC. He’s fiery and some won’t like it, but someone will love it.
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The Cubs are 11-7 (.611) since the trade deadline. They’re on a roll and getting contributions from a number of players on the roster. The fans are clearly responding to a fun team. This is what late season baseball should look like, even if you’re not ticketed for the playoffs.
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So can we have
@Lisa_L_Dubbs
throw out the first pitch to a game this season? Because she deserves it.
What do we say
@Cubs
?
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You have to respect the hell out of Greg Deichmann who, during his first MLB at bat, chose to honor Jason Heyward with a 4-3 groundout.
Greg Deichmann's debut plate appearance comes against a dang good pitcher in Lance Lynn, who gets a cutter in on Deichmann's hands, yielding a groundout to second.
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It’s Mark Prior and I’d take him over anyone, including Rose. If he remains even somewhat healthy Prior hoists a World Series trophy for the Chicago Cubs in his career. I will die on this hill.
Name one Chicago Athlete that you wish never got injured (Derrick Rose is too easy)
I’ll start: TE Zach Miller
Strong blocker, fast, great hands, and a hell of a teammate.
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James Triantos in AA, age 20/21:
.320/.356/.492 (.387 wOBA), 5.3% BB%, 12.3% K%
Arizona Fall League Offensive Player of the Year award at age 20.
Had he gone to college, he’d be draft eligible this season. Curious how he’d be valued in this draft class
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Losing Justin Steele for any significant amount of time would be a blow to the Cubs pitching projection.
But Ben Brown impressed this spring and he was on the cusp of a call up last summer. It may be time.
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A September Cubs win featuring Jordan Wicks starting and Daniel Palencia and Luke Little finishing it off. Very fun!
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The Kimbrel for Madrigal+Heuer trade hasn’t panned out yet (though I’d give it a bit more time to evaluate), but even if it actually flops the Cubs look like they went 7/8 in these trades last summer. They nailed that deadline.
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If you are a member of the Ten Sixty West discord you already know, but I’ve heard from multiple sources that Moisés Ballesteros is heading to AAA. It’s well deserved after he slashed .299/.372/.495 as a 20 year old in AA. Mo Baller, enjoy Des Moines.
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Jed Hoyer has borne the brunt of a lot of criticism, which comes with the job. One of the common criticisms is a fan belief that he isn’t willing to make bold moves. Whether you like this deal or not, he made a bold move in acquiring Isaac Paredes.
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New Cubs prospect Ben Brown in his June 11th start. You can definitely see the lively fastball and big breaking balls. It’s a very fun profile. He struck out 11 that day.
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Nelson Velazquez is a young guy who took control of his career and completely changed its trajectory. During the pandemic canceled season he remade his body and spent time working on identifying spin. In 2021 he changed his stance, swing, and approach. He's earned all of this.
⚠️CAN’T. BE. STOPPED.⚠️
Nelson Velazquez destroys his league leading 9th homer of the season. The
@cubs
prospect is shooting you the tannings ⬆️
@MLBPipeline
@NBCSChicago
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Cole Mathis, second round pick of the Cubs. Another Cape Cod League stud (11 HR, 1.048 OPS), another data stud in 2024 season on swing decisions (16% chase, 84% contact). Two very strong model performers tonight.
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I haven’t seen the data but Javier Assad must be off the charts in wDAWG+
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Jon Lester retires w/ a 200-117 record and 3.66 ERA (77-44 and 3.64 ERA for the Cubs) while being one of the game’s best postseason pitchers. He was at times an ace, a mentor, an innings-eater, a philanthropist, and a stopper, but always a legend. Godspeed, Jon Lester
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The Cubs gave out three first round caliber signing bonuses to Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, and Jackson Ferris and all three are making good on those commitments. But trading for Ben Brown was one amazing move. He’s starting to separate from the others.
A 10-strikeout day for No. 4 prospect Ben Brown!
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Jorge López is now sitting at 22 ⅔ innings for the Cubs with a 0.79 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 20.2% K-BB%, and .207 BAA. The stuff jumps out, but most importantly he just looks comfortable with the org. I’d explore if he’d like to re-up prior to the winter.
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Clearly Ben Brown is feeling it in his AAA debut. He walks off the mound disappointed with a 5 2/3 inning, 3 H, 1 ER, 7K/2BB performance. He was 94-96.8 on the fastball and generated 11 whiffs on the night. Brown is a stud.
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Is CJ Edwards coming back to the Cubs? This was posted from his IG. Heck yes, CJ!
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Daniel Palencia gave the Cubs bullpen exactly what they needed today. Congrats to him on that well-earned save soaking up the last three innings against a challenging offense.
Great series!
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Gross. Leave the dude alone. You are a multibillion dollar organization picking on a person who went to a baseball game. If you cannot market your team better than this, it’s time to close up shop.
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Move over Paul Revere. I got this.
Somebody tell the British that the Cubs are coming.
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Jon Lester: Ace, leader in clubhouse, World Series champion, cancer survivor, humanitarian, and now recruiter to those interested in joining the next great Cubs team.
Legend
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The splitter is from Hector Neris is nasty. It generated a .171 BAA, .211 wOBA, and 42.2% whiff rate in 2023.
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The Cubs gave out 436 PA last season to Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal, David Bote, and Luis Vázquez.
Having Matt Shaw up when he’s ready getting reps and not relying on him to start is a great way to break him in. He can contribute in 2025 and then beyond.
Matt Shaw is not blocked and can log nearly a full season’s worth of plate appearances in Chicago next year even if the roster doesn’t change at all between now and then.
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The Cubs need an elite bat next season. I usually benchmark that at about 150 wRC+, a figure that sits about the top 7-8 hitters in a season. They absolutely need to add more hitting, but they could have an in-house possibility at need number 1 for next season, an elite bat.
Seiya Suzuki became the Cubs' pretty-much-regular DH on August 16. Since then, he's hit .315/.420/.496/159 wRC+.
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From July 27-August 27, Pete Crow-Armstrong is running a .301/.356/.548 line with a .381 wOBA and 148 wRC+. The baserunning is spectacular. The defense, amazing. He's been worth 1.4 fWAR over those 28 games. Extrapolated to 150 games at that pace is a 7.5 fWAR.
PeteCrow has an .850 OPS over his last 30 games and if that is what he can be that’s a 6 win player with his defense and speed
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An offense that supplied a lot of runs through a cold, rainy sweep. A pen that had a rough one.
But the takeaway from tonight for me is Ben Brown
4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
And it feels like there’s more coming.
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Last year Cubs first round pick, Matt Shaw played so well in his assignment that he forced the Cubs hands and they had to promote him. This year Cam Smith is on a crazy run and might be getting close to forcing the issue himself.
HE IS INSANE.
Cam Smith homers for a FIFTH CONSECUTIVE GAME to set a new FRANCHISE RECORD!
#MBPelicans
|
#YouHaveToSeeIt
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The ball/strike challenge system would make all the difference here. Instead of Nico airing out frustration to an umpire about a bad call he could signal the dugout to review. Quick call overturned. Nico not ejected for being rightfully frustrated.
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That’s it for Cade Horton tonight and it was another good one.
His final line 5 IP,3 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB. Brief moment where he lost his control and dialed it back in. Showed swing and miss with multiple pitches.
His AA ERA sits at 1.57.
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Ben Brown had an electric fastball and showed off both breaking balls in his AA debut. He had a 5 IP, 4 H, 1R, 2 BB, 9 K line. I’m very excited to see how they continue to build upon his repertoire. It’s already impressive. Check out all of Brown’s strikeouts.
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It’s really hard to overstate how important Javier Assad has been to the Cubs during this stretch.
Since joining the rotation fulltime on August 11th, Javier Assad has 25.1 IP in 4 starts, with a 2.15 ERA. He has only surrendered 6 ER to go along with 16 hits, 17 K's to 7 BB's. He is in line to improve to 2-0 over that time span.
#NextStartsHere
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A lot of big emotions on the Cubs/Dodgers deal. Couple things:
1. The Cubs haven't had a deal where they moved upper-tier prospects in years. This is what those deals feel like.
2. It moves projected MLB production from 2027/2028 to 2024 and that's pretty fun in my opinion.
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Today would be a phenomenal day for the Cubs to sign Kodai Senga
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If that’s it for Jordan Wicks, it’s one of the best debuts by a Cubs rookie in awhile.
5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K
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This is really cool and I’m thrilled to see all three. But I gotta tell you that after digging deep and being a believer in James Triantos since before he was drafted it is incredibly awesome to be there for his AAA debut next week in Omaha
Big news: the Cubs are promoting Matt Shaw, James Triantos and Kevin Alcantara to the
@IowaCubs
.
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Are the Cubs about to find their third baseman?
Busch slashed .323/.431/.618 with a .449 wOBA and 150 wRC+ and 27 home runs
Wanna see some defense from Michael Busch from his new home at 3rd Base? Well, here ya' go! This was all from last night. Watch the video & determine for yourself the type of defensive player you think he has the potential to be.
#dodgers
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We are seeing some hustle from Jeimer Candelario in his first two Cubs games. The guy is playing like he wants to get to the postseason.
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Cade Horton has absolutely cooked High-A hitters:
3.15 ERA, .195 BAA, 31.3% K-BB%
I believe we’re close to seeing Horton sent to the Development List to give him a breather before a AA promotion mid-July after they stop using the pretacked baseballs.
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When I wake up, I want to read about the new reinforcements to this Cubs team.
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Brennen Davis showcasing his opposite field power. What a smash.
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Okay if the Marlins are selling, it’s time to make some serious calls for arms
BREAKING: The San Diego Padres are nearing a deal to acquire second baseman Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins for a package of three prospects and a relief pitcher, a source familiar with the deal tells ESPN. The trade is in medical review but is expected to be finalized soon.
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The problem the Cubs have right now is that their offense is leaving the pitching staff with little to no margin of error
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Often I need to temper fan expectations of prospects. Yes just because a player is killing it in AA or even AAA doesn’t mean they’re MLB ready. But Cade Horton feels ready or at least close to. It’s about time to get that Bad Man to Chicago.
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Cubs move into the third wild card spot after an incredible lot hard fought series against the Braves!
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The Chicago Cubs are one game out of WC3. It’s not like they’re a juggernaut, but it’s something to be excited about seeing how it all turns out. Should be a fun ride down the stretch.
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Also, congrats to Cubs area scout Ty Nichols for the Cade Horton selection. Obviously we should focus on the players, but don’t lose sight of the scouts busting it all year round to bring in the next class of Cubs players.
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Cade Horton and Jackson Ferris combined to pitch 7 ⅓ innings with 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, and 15 K today. Safe to say the Cubs scouting department deserves a toast for how they executed last years first and second round of the draft.
Player development then took each up a level.
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The Braves are the class of the National League. That was an incredibly hard fought game. Awesome to pull out that win. Cubs certainly needed to empty the tank against that relentless Atlanta offense.
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I think the majority of the bullpen owes Ben Brown dinner, but hey a win is a win
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With the Cubs firmly in the playoff race and hoping for October innings they will have some questions regarding how much Justin Steele throws down the stretch. He officially passed his career high in innings yesterday. It could be valuable to use the occasional 6th starter.
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I know Caleb Kilian sometimes gets lost in the shuffle, but the feedback from this spring is that he has looked incredible. Great velo (upper 90s) and showing good feel for five pitches. Showed that in his spring debut. This is a big year for him and he could help the Cubs.
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Cade Horton is a stud. I was surprised it happened, but for everyone asking the Cubs to take a pitcher with frontline potential, they did. And it opens things up for Dan Kantrovitz and company to aggressively target premium upside talents in future rounds
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A lot made about Isaac Paredes and if his pull power works outside of Tropicana Field. There’s nuanced discussion to be had, but might be losing the forest through the trees. This is the Away splits for all qualified 3B from the start of 2023. The Cubs added a really good hitter.
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Cade Horton was magnificent tonight completing 5 innings and racking up 10 strikeouts!
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That is an incredible deal for the Cubs. Very low risk. Doesn’t block any prospects long-term. Bellinger also has opportunity to try his hand at free agency again in deal modeled similarly after Stroman’s.
BREAKING: Centerfielder Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a three-year, $80 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Bellinger will receive opt-outs after each of the first two years of the deal. Bellinger, 28, returns to the Cubs after a prolonged free agency.
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Hayden Wesneski and Matt Mervis should have been consensus Top 100 prospects. I don’t care about age, the production, peripherals, and metrics are there.
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David Ross did some solid work over the past four years. He really didn’t deserve to be fired, but there are only so many ways you can improve a ball club and a top, top tier manager becoming available is one way. Ross will get more opportunities in the future. Good luck to him.
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Does Trey Mancini now block Matt Mervis? I truly don’t believe so. Mancini can play LF, RF, 1B, and DH. Signing Mancini provides depth and allows the team to rest guys and not feel like you’re adding a significant gap to the lineup when you sit a player.
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This is pretty huge news dropped by Andy Martinez in his update about the Cubs pitching development. The whole article is worth a read and I RT’d it already but will link below.
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Call him JacKson Ferris from now on. Ferris strikes out 7 and only surrenders one walk (arm-side miss fastballs) in 3 innings. While the stuff was flashing last night, feels like there’s even another gear or two to unlock. Could see 4-5 pitches in arsenal by the end of the year.
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Hell yeah I do. Steep price? Bring it.
You spent the past few years drafting well, making solid trades to accumulate prospects in a deep system. You have to be willing to make a buy trade that hurts some time.
If the Blue Jays fall off and decide to sell, would you want to see the Cubs go after Vladimir Guerrero Jr., even at a steep price?
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I’m so excited for PCA to come back up and never look back
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Ethan Roberts is now up to 8 ⅓ scoreless innings (27.3% K-BB%) in AAA and just completed his first back-to-back appearance returning from TJS.
His sweeper is leading the way with a 41.9% whiff rate and heavy sweep, averaging 20 inches of movement. He could be close to a call up.
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Brand new MLB Pipeline Top 30 just dropped. PCA is officially ranked first overall. Huge praise for Cade Horton.
The Cubs land three players in the Top 100: PCA (31), Brennen Davis (51), Kevin Alcantara (91).
Finally, I absolutely love to see Porter Hodge and Matt Mervis on there
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The Cubs resigning Cody Bellinger to a reasonable and very good contract feels like such a win-win for both sides
Dansby Swanson at
#CubsCon
:
"Before we get to next year, we have to re-sign Belli."
(📸:
@WatchMarquee
)
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The recent Cubs/Guardians Clase rumor is interesting. I buy that it’s legit to an extent. But these deals are difficult to execute. So I wonder if there isn’t a happy medium where the CHC and CLE get together to swap an everyday hitter for a controllable BP arm. Let’s 🧵
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I can’t shake the feeling that a Nick Madrigal for Jarred Kelenic deal makes sense for the Cubs/Mariners.
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