ING Economics
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Trump's tariffs on aluminium and steel aim to bolster domestic production and bring more jobs back to the US. However, previous tariffs did not lead to increased domestic production of the two metals.
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The prospect of a global trade war is bearish for the LME aluminium price.
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As we await the next tariff news from Trump, it is noticeable that some European currencies are outperforming. The Scandies, in particular, and some parts of the CEE complex have held their own against the strong dollar $.
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Our monthly look at the performance of iron ore, copper, aluminium, and other industrial metals. This month’s edition focuses on aluminium and what Trump’s tariffs could mean for the metal’s trade flows and prices.
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Since the US elections, the correlation between US rates and euro rates has declined significantly. A move lower in euro rates can therefore widen USD-EUR spreads even further.
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What could Donald Trump’s tariffs mean for aluminium? ING's Ewa Manthey takes a look
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Central bank digital currencies: the future of money? As the digital euro preparation phase nears its conclusion, it's crucial to consider the associated risks and benefits. Banks could incur huge costs if proper safeguards aren't implemented. More here:
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Gold is already up more than 9% year-to-date, having hit a series of consecutive record highs along the way. Here's why we think gold at $3,000/oz is within reach.
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The combination of wider interest rate differentials and broadening US tariffs are providing continued support to the dollar, and we can't see that changing this week. Here's why:
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The second Trump era so far seems to mean unpredictability, uncertainty and high volatility. So what's in store for the global economy over the next few months? @carstenbrzeski gives his take:
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Trump's tariff threats should give the dollar a boost across the board in Q2. The one concern we have to an otherwise conviction call that the dollar stays strong is that US corporate earnings start to suffer on FX headwinds and Washington takes action.
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Tariffs are a complicated story, and could force rates down initially – but we think they'll cumulatively end up higher, writes @marketsgarvey.
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Germany's elections later this month are significant not only for Germany but for Europe as a whole. @carstenbrzeski dives into what needs to be done to make the German economy great again.
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Economic growth last year was disappointing across much of the CEE region, and we expect a similar story this year. Here's why 👇
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Asian central banks are becoming more cautious about the domestic growth outlook, leading to pre-emptive rate cuts.
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For those hoping for real clarity about what’s next for the ECB, the long-awaited working paper today will have been a disappointment, writes @carstenbrzeski
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Today's German industrial production data paints a rather unflattering picture of a nation known as an industrial powerhouse, writes @CarstenBrzeski
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The dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant
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Strong December data pushed China's 2024 growth to the target level, but 2025 is off to a weak start as PMI softens and tariffs loom.
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