Padhraic Garvey
@MarketsGarvey
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ING's Regional Head of Research, Americas. My tweets are (mostly) my own.
New York
Joined April 2021
ING THINK: Rates Spark: Trump wants a lower 10yr yield too! #DonaldTrump is keen to chop the 10yr yield!
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ING THINK: Rates Spark: The Fed will not do nothing It’s all about preparing for the end of QT. By June we think …
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RT @ING_Economics: The DeepSeek potential threat sends tech stocks plummeting. The Fed will be watching.
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ING THINK: Rates Spark: Lots to get excited about… next week
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ING THINK: Rates Spark: Rates having a peek to the downside
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ING THINK: US Rates heading deeper into the Zone of Interest
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ING THINK: Rates Spark: Unless the print is sub-150k, no change in tone
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ING THINK: Rates in 2025: back to the future Targeting 5% + for the 10yr yield in 2025 …
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ING THINK: Rates Spark: Treasuries bully direction The Fed was supposed to be the big cutter on a delayed start. Now the pressure is greater on the ECB. And in the end, direction is being bullied by Treasuries
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RT @MarketsGarvey: ING THINK: The early cutting cycle – what the US 10yr should do A material sub-optimal payrolls…
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RT @ING_Economics: 🇲🇽 It might not take much for one of the major rating agencies to nudge Mexico into sub-investment grade status. But @M…
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ING THINK: The early cutting cycle – what the US 10yr should do A material sub-optimal payrolls number can spark a move lower in market rates. Till then it’s up
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ING THINK: Where now for the US 10yr rate? We show why fair value for 10yr SOFR is around 4%. It’s now at 3.4%. Should we get ready for a rise? Yes, eventually. But not yet. First it can get down to as low as 3%.
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How to play the US election drama If Biden pulls out, Treasuries rally (yields fall). But if Trump wins, Treasuries sell off (yields rise), eventually. But, for unobvious and contrarian reasons ...
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ING THINK: Rates Spark: Rate cut momentum is sustained In 10 days we’ll get a subdued PCE deflator report, and that will harden the build of a rate cut discount. There is another side to this being ignored (-20bp term premium), but that’s for another day
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