I-65 Weather (Kentucky)
@I65WxSils
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Weather Forecasts & Analysis for SoKY & I-65 Corridor. @SKYWARN Spotter for @NWSLOUISVILLE . #WKU Alum, former TV Met in WY #kywx #I65Wx . #GoCards
Bowling Green, KY
Joined March 2021
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Last Seen Profiles
PERSONAL NEWS: We became homeowners today! The
#I65Wx
compound luckily still resides off 3 Springs.
At least I got a good view looking SW in the future for storm spotting ⛈️ 🌪️ 😉
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With permission from
@HeatherCarterTN
who shared this with me, here’s a Timelapse of the Funnel wm that was rain-wrapped with a tiny condensation vortex dropping down in
#BowlingGreen
along 3 Springs Rd and Natcher overpass on Saturday.
@NWSLouisville
#kywx
5
27
102
On serious Note… please say for a safe recovery for my Wife. Complained of lower abdomen pains… turned out when i took her to ER, she had appendicitis. It was removed safely but still in quite a bit of pain. Taking care of her thru rest of the day.
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0
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*Updated* 18zNAM for Wednesday
@CIPSAnalogs
bullseyes South Central KY & I-65 Corridor.
As I said before, take this with grain of salt but chances of a Tornado potential go up if over 75%.
8
19
97
0zNAM from the
@CIPSAnalogs
(Left) TUES
(Right) WEDS
Very consistent data showing the Tornado potential. Anything above 75% grows a concern that somewhere a SigNif TOR can occur. This is one of the tools we use.
#kywx
5
16
91
THIS was the best shot of the night taken in Woodburn. My wife caught this as you could see 3 light pillars along with the beautiful hues.
Post your favorite pics of the night down below 👇 in the post. ❤️ to see them.
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10
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I know Tornadoes and Severe Weather is on my mind today… but these are priceless memories that’ll never get back. These girls are having a time of their lives so far.
5
3
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1st sightings of the
#Aurora
here in BOWLING GREEN! I can’t wait for later tonight folks!
Omg. Like a kid at a candy store
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7
74
To make it safer, I AM TAKING MY FAMILY to a Tornado Shelter off 3 Springs at Basil Griffin Park. Keep ya updated folks, be safe Bowling Green.
#kywx
13
10
71
PACKED HOUSE at the Tornado Shelter off 3 Springs at Basil Griffin in Bowling Green.❤️ seeing this.
#kywx
3
16
68
The latest 12zNAM
@CIPSAnalogs
once again 🎯 Central/Southern KY and parts of Southern IN. Like I said, anything over 75% shows potential of decent TOR chance. This is 85%.
#kywx
6
16
66
I have * NOT* remembered seeing this much data being thrown with maps, images, future radars, analysis for the Lower OH Valley on social media in quite some time.
That tells you what the potential is with Tuesday. HAVE a Plan of Action if you are under a Warning ⚠️.
5
5
65
WE NEED A TORNADO WATCH ISSUE! Cells are firing now. Come on, SPC.
Not this forward, but come on guys.
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9
65
0zGFS:
GFS has been the higher impact model solution so far. Farther North than EURO, meaning larger Warm Sector. A 100+kt Neutral Tilt Trof by Sat PM over Lower OH/Tenn Valley. LOTS of Dynamics but return flow of Thermodynamics are low at the moment. Let’s see what EURO 👀
#kywx
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6
63
SPC has a Day 7 (Wednesday) Slight Risk or a 15% Risk of seeing some sort of Severe Weather potential for ALL of the Lower OH Valley & MidSouth
For those not aware, anything of at least four days out with a Risk is 👀 worthy of paying attention. I’ll discuss more on this Friday
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10
62
*Not a Forecast*
TUES (Left) & WEDS (Right) from the
@CIPSAnalogs
. This is a guidance tool so take this with a grain of 🧂. The NAM has been very aggressive past couple days for this week. Just know the chances of seeing a Tornado are possible if your in the 75%> value.
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17
61
WOW!
What an amazing Sunset tonight here in Bowling Green.
“Fire on High”
@DavidWolter1
@JudeRedfield
@ChrisAllenSkywx
@Main_Event_Wx
@MarcWeinbergWX
@WeatherNowKY
#kywx
#bgky
#I65wx
5
7
62
<Thread>
🌪️ ⛈️
What Happened Last night & Why it performed??
Throughout the Day and days prior, signals continued to show a concerning look. A stagnant Low pressure that was parked in the Desert Southwest pumped in ample moisture out of the Gulf surging North into the
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11
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A High End Severe Threat is still possible for ALL of the 65 Corridor on Tuesday from Lunchtime thru Early Eve. (11am-7pm). Mid Level & Loe Level flow lines up for decent turning of winds with height where i highlighted.
Thermodynamics are high as “mixing” looks efficient
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17
60
TUESDAY (Day 3):
SPC has increased areas along & East of 65 in an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather. ALL of KY is under a Slight Risk of Severe Weather at the moment.
The SPC did nudge the Outlook farther West. Expect more changes & shifts as we get closer to Tuesday
#kywx
5
15
60
LONG NIGHT for yours truly, Folks.
Me and the Java got ya covered thru the evening as we track these Storms.
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The
@CIPSAnalogs
from the NAM for SUNDAY at Night. It’s usually overdone but this is the odds of seeing a Strong TOR.
Anything over 65% is a good chance. The 75% is where the Enhanced Risk is placed by the SPC.
#kywx
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14
57
ROUND 3:
Expecting some clearing next couple hours. Last line if airmass recovers could see our actual Cold Front with wind damage and embedded TOR potential after 10pm this evening moving toward 65 Corridor. Keeping eye out, folks.
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12
58
NEXT WEEK:
Multiple impulses are forecasted to slide into the Lower OH Valley.
One signal looks to slide in on Wednesday with chcs of all modes of Severe Weather potential. This is from the CSU prob forecast showing at least a 15%+ of Svr Wx. This is a good tool to use.
#kywx
6
21
57
No AURORA tonight from me folks. I’m sitting here at the entrance into Mammoth Cave Natl Park and all i got are stars.
Hopefully Sunday will have a better showing.
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1
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OTD in 2012: The benchmark Tornado Outbreak of the past Millennium for the Lower OH Valley. A High Risk, 30% TOR outlook that spawned 160 🌪️ in all. Most notable ones were the Sisters SUPs over Southern IN and into Eastern KY. Credit to
@NWSLouisville
2
15
56
NEXT Storm Chance:
Buckle Up again, folks. Another MCV (Storm complex) is forecasted to drop down THURS PM toward 65 Corridor & MiddleTN. The Ring of Fire of ⛈️ will pivot around the High Pressure in ArkLaTex and spark a strong 500mb Jet Streak 👁️ toward OH & TN Valley.
#kywx
9
16
55
TUESDAYS ⛈️THREAT:
SPC has bulls-eyed ALL of the 65 Corridor in an Enhanced Risk. A higher risk of Tornadoes are possible from Bowling Green/Nashville and points East in a 10%.
** This will likely change between now until Tuesday Morning.
5
18
55
*8AM Update*
LATEST SPC Outlook shows they have nudge the MOD RISK (Level 4/5) now into Bowling Green and all along US 68-80. This could be as what I may have seen the boundary slowly lifting a touch North based on Radar trends.
Strong Tornado or two, Damaging 💨, HAIL at Risk
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17
53
<PART 2>
An evolving line of ⛈️ in the ArkLaTex late Thurs looks to slide into the Tenn Valley/ Southern KY as we 👀 into FRIDAY. This will be the day, even though we are several days out, that remains fuzzy. I have monitored this system since Friday BUT data stays consistent.
3
12
52
* STORM CHANCES for this Week*
SPC has updated their outlook and has placed ALL of the I-65 Corridor and the entire state in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for both Tuesday & Wednesday.
This will likely change as new data comes in with any potential upgrades.
#kywx
2
12
53
“Early Look” for Sunday ⛈️ 🌪️:
A significant threat of severe weather is possible as we head into Sunday. A fast moving 500mb MidLevel Jet is forecasted to roll right into the Ohio Valley by late Aftn/Evening as it taps into an unstable airmass. Multiple Hazards are at play.
3
8
53
WOW! Look at that. This is a view earlier out in Hancock looking toward that SUP in Southern IN. Full view of the anvil spreading out. Mature supercell.
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2
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I know we are hyper-focused on MCS potential for Thurs & Fri… BUT don’t forget on a system for *SATURDAY*
Global Operational data shows a vigorous system with a cold front attached. A neutral tilted Trof currently positioned in Midwest may drive another round of Svr ⛈️
#kywx
3
12
49
LATE WEEK ⛈️ CHANCES:
A vigorous weather pattern looks to roll into the OH Valley come Thurs/Fri. Model differences based on placement of Low, strength and timing but moisture is there with dT’s in mid 60°. MidLevel flow looks decent for upscale growth with ⛈️. Keep 👀 on it.
5
16
49
Lots of *spinnage 🌪️ * potential showing up in the CAMS tonight for TUESDAY. This is helicity swath from the NAM3km. HRRR is not as aggressive but some cells tomorrow will need to be watched carefully.
My analysis on tomorrow little later.
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5
48
For 65 Corridor:
Latest HiRes data builds this damaging line of storms, embedded brief TOR spin up possibility, ~ 11pm along & just W of 65.
Personal Note: I will be traveling back soon from Bullitt Co (Mt Wash.) as I head home to BG.
4
6
47
Not liking what I’m seeing based on Radar trends. Boundary lifting out to the East, rain clearing. If skies start clearing out with some ☀️ that’ll erode the MidLevel EML for greater TOR Potential later after Lunch and increase Instability.
8
6
46
** UPDATE**
SPC has upgraded a Level 4/5 (Moderate Risk) for ALL of Western KY and as far East into Bowling Green. Strong Tornado potential does exist as it’s a 15# from Jackson Purchase region to Madisonville. Elsewhere, a large 10# for ALL of KY and 65 Corridor.
Not done yet.
2
9
46
SUNDAY Severe Weather Threat:
The SPC has placed a Level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk) for much of the 65 Corridor and points West.
A hatched 30% of Significant Severe Wx is for much of Southern IN & areas along the River.
I’ll update later tonight on some modeling data.
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9
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NOW since Fridays system is over, it’s time to dive into our ❄️ system for Late Sunday-Monday. The 0zNAM looks 🧃 for KY as it shifted a little North than compared to mornings run.
#kywx
3
5
46
THURS AM: A MCV system is now showing up on HiRes come Thurs AM with the chcs of Gusty Winds 💨 and Heavy 🌧️.
As of now the better location should stay in a line from Owensboro-BWG and points EAST of 65 Corridor. MidLevel Winds *dont* look as Strong like we had on Sun 🙏
#kywx
2
8
45
SPC’s outlook on Day 6 (WEDNESDAY) continues with the 15% Slight Risk for the Lower OH Valley & MidSouth
** SPC notes the lack of consistency on timing by global guidance at the moment, in which I agree. How Tues activity persists depends on what Wednesday could be like
#kywx
6
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44
BTW, if you follow me… I at least should follow you, right?
I treat my page as a community.. a community of avid Weather enthusiasts, information for daily weather reports, forecast questions, and opinions on a ⛈️ or ❄️ threat.
I pay close attention to my audience
#kywx
3
1
45
Well in depth analysis of what we are looking at for late this weekend on Sunday. All four key Ingredients are coming into play.. Shear, Lift, Instability & Moisture. Nice post by
@tystorm101
There is Potential for a Significant Severe Weather Event for Portions of the Lower OH, TN, + Mid MS River Valley's. Along/Ahead of Jet-streak approaching the Lower OH Valley can be a focused area for Severe🌩️'s to Develop. Uncertainty remains for the Potential Morning Convection
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10
44
Boundary *trying* to lift North?… if cells don’t backbuild and produce more convection/rain showers .. we can see the Front lift North into KY.
Right now.. I’d be keeping tabs later today if your in MiddleTN upto the Stateline.
8
3
44
*NOT* Showing the Sim Reflectivity from 0zGFS, but boy look at the 500mb Height Anomaly just before Turkey Day.
Deepening Low starts to bottom out over OH Valley from Svr Storms to ❄️ on backside.
Lots of 🥶 Air wrapping around to help Dynamic Cooling.
#kywx
4
6
43
Leaving on a jet plane ✈️… to Orlando and see Mickey for next several days..
I will be limited on posts folks. Stay
#WeatherAware
next two days
7
2
43
4
3
44
Well…. Since
@JimCantore
is unable to to come out Thursday night in
#BGKY
, it better ❄️ a *Minimum* of a Half-Foot next week!
We need a good Return on this one! Any other takers?
#kywx
5
3
43
0zGFS be like “let me jog 100 miles South” and get people in KY giddy.
My
#NewYears2023
weather resolution .. a FOOT OF SNOW in
#BGKY
. There I said it. Makes up for our 8 year snow drought.
Let this January be memorable for many.
#kywx
#inex
8
4
43
A solar eclipse, Northern Lights and a Supercell… been a Monumental 5 weeks in our Ohio Valley!
3
4
44
Latest “Helicity” swaths from 12zHRRR shows how these storms have the potential *Spin* along & SOUTH of the boundary. Southern KY & MiddleTN needs to keep an eye beginning after Lunch thru Afternoon
5
6
41
ALL in the Green are at risk of seeing conditions of Strong to Severe Storms late this Aftn into Evening; some could rotate..
Where the better mixing and thermodynamics are and better *Spin* where cells can rotate is in Yellow. Can’t rule out a couple a TORS in the Yellow
0
6
42
*Update*
DAY 2 (SUNDAY), the SPC just upgraded along & E of 65 in an ENHANCED Risk.
More details later.
#kywx
3
7
42
PROOF of a vortex.. there’s your ground truth in Murfreesboro
This no doubt is a Tornado.
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6
43
Wednesday:
Latest
@CIPSAnalogs
from 0zNAM has a Bullseye right over Madison/Carrollton area. *This is a forecasting tool so take this with grain of salt and exercise caution*
Anything over 75% shows a SigNif Tornado of a 65%. These perform @ times so we have to keep tabs
3
14
43
DOWN THE ROAD:
As we enter next week, long range data ensembles have continued showing an active pattern as we get into Late MAY. High Pressure off the North in Canada and GOM will keep storm track in nations midsection. MidLevel Flow looks active and consistent. ⛈️ not done.
3
9
41
LAST POST of the Evening:
TOR Warning has been lifted for Western KY and replaced it with a Svr Warning. Svr Activity will weaken farther East as this line pushes toward I-65 Corridor. Just lot more rain and thunder.
Been an eventful day. MUCH calmer on Thursday. 🥱
6
2
42
HEADS UP… it may be quiet so far… but the SPC is considering a Watch for Southern IN and a good chunk of KY later this evening.
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6
42
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3
42
TUES: Kinematics (wind energy) & Thermodynamics (moisture) will both be High on this one. 500mb races over IL-IN-OH but what’s underneath it lies the TOR 🌪️ potential. Looking at Bulk Shear/ML CAPE values.. best “Mixing” of both lies in the shade of GREEN. Dewpoints well into 60s
5
9
40
Sent in to me earlier today from my friend/chaser
@HeatherCarterTN
of the Funnel Cloud passing over the 3 Springs Rd overpass off the Natcher/I-165 in
#BowlingGreen
. I spotted some light damage near this area tonight off Smallhouse next Holy Spirit Church.
@NWSLouisville
#kywx
0
11
42
** SUBJECT TO CHANGE**
A round of Rain/Mix to ❄️ arrives Late Friday Aftn into the Evening as a shortwave hooks up with developing Low Pressure. Here are my Thoughts. Rough Sketch but where forcing interacts with the Cold Air, we could see ❄️ enhancement along a DEF Band.
#kywx
3
7
40
I AM SAFE..and Fortunate. My friend and chaser
@HeatherCarterTN
captured that WALL CLOUD right over Basil Griffin Park. Family is good. Back home watching the activity now S in Tennessee
#kywx
#tnwx
4
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THIS was taken by one of my close friends from college Aunt in Winchester, IN on Thursday night. Thankfully they didn’t receive any damage but a very scary scene after knowing the devastation the city took. A stout elephant trunk 🌪️.
#Inwx
@NWSIndianapolis
@spann
@ReedTimmerUSA
3
12
41
Short Range loves KY. Nice to see this fill in. Let’s get it guys!…. Let’s root for this ❄️ lovers.
#kywx
6
2
41
Anyone who likes to look at analogs, this is the
@CIPSAnalogs
from the NAM for Saturday. Anything over 65% has the potential of seeing an EF2 or higher TOR. Low odds here in KY/MiddleTN but anywhere from SWest Tenn and points SOUTH have higher odds.
This is one tool to use.
2
9
41
Concerning clusters after from 4PM-Midnight for Ky as the new 0zHRRR rolls in. ALL modes are possible
#kywx
2
9
39