Nicky Franco
@HoR_102
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Husband, father. Head of Research, Abacus Sec/MyTrade. Stock picks, business, economy, bit of politics. UPD. Personal views. NOT investment advice.
Makati/Ortigas
Joined April 2016
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For those who followed me for my work, i wrote something on my personal wall about the elections and how this may affect 🇵🇭 equities.
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Caloy’s 2nd attempt was actually the best vault, scoring 14.866. And at only 21 (youngest competitor), he is still going to get better.
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Just sharing (again) what i posted on our FB group yesterday.
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Abacus was among those who agreed to cancel the trade. Why? First, this is a small community and we have good relations with Quality. More importantly, no one is immune from such mistakes and who knows when we'll be on the wrong end of a fat finger trade?
After a FAT FINGER error caused CEBU PACIFIC to nosedive, CEB shares this morning hit ceiling price, jumps 50% to P87.00; Sources say broker who committed error immediately reported, was able to talk to buyers to cancel trade, some insisted transaction to push thru
@ANCALERTS
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"You can actually purchase and license a lot of data on Filipino citizens, and because there's so much data in the Philippines, much more advanced tactics could be used there"
IMO, online manipulation is happening daily, not just during elections.
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Earlier, i posted a chart on our FB group, told the story behind it and what lessons it holds for traders and investors in today’s market.
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It’s not the only factor but governance definitely matters for equity returns.
Cory not included in this chart because the PSE index was only introduced in 1987 while MSCI EM index debuted in 1988.
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TRAIN in 1 tweet:
More revenue generator than tax reform. Lower income taxes benefit 6% of Pinoys but 100% will pay higher excise taxes. Hope is that net erosion in consumer spending power will be more than offset by new infra. But skilled labor is way lacking. Reality may bite.
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In the run up to the $CNVRG IPO, i saw a lot of analyses online (FB, YT, etc). For many, it can get confusing hearing/reading many different views so i put down some thoughts (not necessarily all apply to CNVRG) below which hopefully helps in the future. Not an exhaustive list.
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Looks like Monde Nissin IPO will push through. This might draw funds away from $URC.
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How tax paying middle class families are getting priced out of the property market because unregistered/illegal mainland POGO workers, who don't pay taxes (Php22.0B by DoF's count but probably higher), are bidding up rents/prices of condos and other properties.
Beautiful Monday, Twitter friends! What shall we be upset about this week? 😂
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We now have two Houses of Representatives. One is LOW and the other one is LOWER.
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I’ve rarely gone out in the past 9mos of quarantine, done zero DIY home projects & i keep putting off writing a book. Instead, i’ve taken to sculpting holiday-themed figures out of
@Hersheys
kisses wrappers. The 1st was initially just a ball of wrappers that became a snowman.
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Our CEO gives me great latitude & independence (which i value) even if it sometimes leads to lost business or gets me/us into trouble.
Way back, i wrote a long report on a blue chip firm complete with SWOT. Problem was a newspaper only took the weaknesses/threats making it...
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2018 GDP/capita:
🇻🇳 $2,550
🇵🇭 $3,020
COVID-19 tests per million:
🇻🇳 150
🇵🇭 16-17
Confirmed cases/deaths:
🇻🇳 134/0
🇵🇭 552/35
Population: ~100M for both
🇻🇳 may be an outlier but this shows a resource-constrained country can ramp up testing, flatten curve, prevent deaths.
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Years ago we learned a trader from another house blacked out the header of our report & tried to pass it off as their own. That was when we still used faxes. You'd think nobody will try to pull off the same thing in this day & age. But someone did, & on live TV!
#ANCMarketEdge
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A client asked us to describe our research style. I was unsure at first because i’ve never really thought about it and we don’t adhere to any particular investment style or approach to research. This made me think and this is what we eventually wrote to our client.
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Historical perspective of water privatization. All were "aghast" at Ayala's very low bids for BOTH east & west zones. Major risk for pedestrian rewards (13% ROE/7% ROIC in last 5yrs).
Now imagine if Ayala didn't bid in 1997. H2O bills would likely be much higher today.
$MWC
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My ballot on Monday:
⚫️5
@GaryAlejano
⚫️9
@bamaquino
⚫️25
@ChelDiokno
⚫️23
@LeodyManggagawa
⚫️36
@SamiraGutoc
⚫️37
@fthilbay
⚫️41
@attyromymac
⚫️57
@MARoxas
⚫️59
@erintanada
Last 3 slots will be a game time decision.
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He’s one of, if not THE principal architect of TRAIN.
Below is the title page and one of the slides i used in early 2018.
@HoR_102
General thoughts sir, on Karl Kendrick Chua appointed as acting NEDA Director General?
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I’ll be resource person for the PSE Webinar next Fri, Oct 23, at 3pm. My talk will be about “Profiting from mega trends and historical patterns.” Among others, i’ll highlight a strategy that has beaten 📈 the
#PSEi
since 2009. If you have time, pls attend via the PSE’s FB page.
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Sometimes we even lose "access" because of unfavorable reports. However, our job is to give clients clear-eyed, objective & insightful research that helps them decide, on their own, whether to buy/sell/hold/subscribe. To stay in the good graces of companies we cover is secondary.
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This looks more like “holding the line” rather than “flattening the curve.”
Chart via
@EdsonCGuido
PH has ‘flattened the curve’, says epidemiologist | Inquirer News
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Agree with
@PhStockExchange
’s decision to suspend $DITO. As i wrote in today’s
#ShortTakes
, the company should first file the 3rd party valuation/fairness opinion to support the share swap valuation of P68.4B. This will allow everyone to buy/sell/trade based on complete info.
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On Monday, we recommended a Buy on $RLC. The chart below is a big reason why. While peers will take until 2022 to recover to 2019 profit levels, Bloomberg consensus shows RLC will achieve it next year.
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It’s not just that the 🇵🇭 has “one of the region’s worst outbreaks,” it’s that we have had one of, if not, the weakest fiscal responses in the region. As Mr. Razon said, we need a bazooka, not a pistol.
Economists have slashed their 2020 outlook for the Philippines more than any other Southeast Asian nation as it struggles with one of the region’s worst outbreaks
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$IMI now up 64% since this report.
SHORT TAKES | NOVEMBER 4, 2020
TODAY'S FOCUS: $IMI
Download file:
Increasing EV production is really promising. VIAO, and by extension, $IMI are long-term bets to profit from this mega trend. The stock should be worth Php8.55/sh
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Waiting until people are symptomatic = passive/reactive.
#MassTestingNowPH
= proactive. Proven to flatten curve in South Korea.
Proactive = asking private firms to reconfig manufacturing plants to produce masks/PPEs/ventilators(?).
Another example of proactive 👇
Dahlia Hotel Pasig has now been converted into a QUARANTINE FACILITY.
Ayon sa mga eksperto, mataas ang tsansa na dadami pa ang kaso ng
#COVID19
. Kailangan handa tayo. Strict supervised quarantine of PUMs & PUIs w mild-moderate symptoms is 1 way we can minimize community risk.
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If it wasn’t before, yesterday’s oral arguments make it clear that
@ChelDiokno
belongs in the senate.
Karangalan para sa FLAG na humarap sa Supreme Court to argue against the Anti-Terror Law, at para ipaglaban ang karapatan ng mga kababayan natin.
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It would've been OK if our work had been cited/given attribution but it wasn't. So even if "imitation is the best form of flattery," i have been advised to say that if this happens again, we'll have to call out the person by name. Nothing personal, just protecting our business.☮️
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We’re hiring! Equity analysts needed. Background in acctg, finance, econ & related fields. Experience a plus but willingness to learn, critical thinking & analytical ability are more important. Warning: learning curve is steep/long. 👉 📧 research
@abacus
-sec.com RTs appreciated!
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The impact of the elections on equities won’t be seen in a week or even after several months/quarters. Still interesting, though, that the post-election return for the PSEi last week (-5.6%) was the worst on an absolute and relative basis since 1998 (no MSCI indices yet in 1992).
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1. I'm not an economist; my expertise is in equities;
2. The tweet was addressed to those who followed me for my work.
But speaking as a non-econ, the best that can be said about 2017-19 GDP (6.45% ave) was that it simply sustained growth from prior admin. At worst, it was...
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Late reaction but simply not true. Mactan Cebu Int'l Airport Terminal 2 showed that PPPs can work. No debt, no taxes and user pays.
Briones: We have no choice. It's either taxes or borrowing. It's either taxes or no schools, no hospitals | LIVE
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Early week, we said it was overvalued above Php10.00. Yesterday, we published a report on $ACEN. Read why we think it’s not worth more than Php6.20 per share - even on aggressive assumptions - by logging in or opening an account with
@MyTradePH
.
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Update:
Tys ✅
Sys ✅
RSA ✅
TTC ✅
EKR ✅
MVP ✅
L. Tan ✅
A. Tan ✅
Lopez ✅
Ayalas ✅
Aboitiz ✅
Gotianun ✅
Gokongweis ✅
BTW, foregone rental of $SMPH for one month could be as much as Php4.0B.
Still a lot of time for others to catch up.
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If you’re on Globe, and if you have unused rewards points, please consider donating such points to the PGH Medical Foundation.
Kindly RT. Thanks.
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Something to ponder this coming week. If you’re worried that rising commodity prices will hurt $URC & $MONDE in the near/medium term, consider switching to $PGOLD. It is near all-time low valuations (P/E) and it leads its regional peers on most profitability metrics (see chart).
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The 🇵🇭 lost its “halo” long before the virus.
- FDI and GDP slowed 2018-19
- Valuation premium vs other EMs/Asean evaporated
- Deterioration in global competitiveness/corruption rankings
- BPOs have been slowing since 2017
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Understand that we’re not privy to everything that mgt is planning. The mandate of Abacus Capital was to sell the IPO and we (research) believe that $SPNEC will deliver the 500MW (possibly more). However, today’s disclosure clearly supports our recom to switch from $ACEN to SPNEC
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Again, this is why i advocate for standard profit disclosure rules for
@PhStockExchange
listed firms.
$SMC touted “earnings” of P34.2B in 9M21 but earnings to common shareholders (which is what matters most) was actually just P5.55B. Moreover, SMC actually posted a *loss* in Q3.
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Referred to this quite a while ago in a tweet but sharing this table for the 1st time. You can draw your own lessons from more than 20 years of price hikes for both $JFC and
@McDo_PH
but the key here is that their respective average selling price CAGRs are 4.0% and 4.1%, both...
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Just wanted to get into this in detail.
@fthilbay
and i don't know each other, and i'm sure he needs nobody to take up the cudgels for him, but i'd like to offer my own 2 cents on this matter (a thread).
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#2
is debatable but even if true, the benefit is likely marginal compared to the risk of absolute power which, as we know, corrupts absolutely.
2nd, the govt has not even done as much as it can given the powers it currently has. Giving even more power doesn’t ensure success.
Our ultimate decision calculus:
1. Can the virus be defeated with existing state structures? YES (with difficulty, and with likely a higher body count).
2. Will it be easier to defeat the virus with special powers? YES (with risk of further eroding liberal democracy).
Choose.
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Another reason why governance matters.
The graphic below from Moody’s shows governance is one of the factors that goes into credit agencies’ analysis of sovereign ratings. In particular, the Quality of Institutions is assessed using a range of indicators. The data sources…
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Solar Philippines can build solar farms at half the cost of its peers. This will allow $SPNEC to bid more competitively for power supply contracts and will enhance margins and ROI.
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"I hate corruption" and "return a few gold bars" don't compute. They are inimical to each other.
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3Q 2020 Earnings Summary based on reported net incomes. Didn’t use core or recurring profits because we noticed a lot of companies have different definitions of “core” net income. As such, they would not have been comparable.
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#PSEi
was down only 12 points just prior to the close. Most big caps sold off because of the index rebalancing which takes effect on Monday. The 236 point drop wasn’t because of Covid fears although the number of cases will certainly continue to rise.
Philippine stocks tumbled the most in more than a year on fears coronavirus infections will rise further
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It's been a while. What did i miss?
Breaking my Twitter fast to invite anyone interested to watch as i present updates to our market outlook this Friday at 2PM on our various platforms. Will also share thoughts on Monde Nissin's upcoming IPO.
Link:
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The "Short List" - 53 stocks that are eligible for shorting once allowed on October 23. Find out why we grouped them by value turnover by logging into .
How weird is it that $AP isn't here? Kicked out of the PSEi and not in the dividend or mid-cap indices.
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The 🇵🇭 was slapped with 5 downgrades totaling 6 notches from all 3 major ratings agencies from 2003-2005. And some people want to give xPGMA credit for the country's current growth momentum? 🤔
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MyTrade Tab for iOS. A cut above the rest 👇
MyTrade mobile and iPad app is now available for download.
Google Play: …
iTunes:
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And these loans are what they call cheap?
They are not simply expensive but, rather, onerous.
Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio on Friday warned that China could seize gas in Reed Bank should the Philippines be unable to pay the $62M loan from China for the Chico River Pump Irrigation Loan Agreement. | via
@mikenavallo
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"deficit with China swells to $1.1B" So the next time you hear DTI Sec. Lopez say that exports to China increased by so much, remember that he's talking about only one side of the equation. China is actually getting the better end of the bargain.
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ICYMI: Why we think PSEi will rise ~70% and breach 10,000 by May 2023.
This is part of and must be read as a series of posts which you can access at .
@MyTradePH
SHORT TAKES | OCTOBER 19, 2020
TODAY’S FOCUS: 10,000 in 2023
Download file:
2022 Presidential elections is coming. From 1992 to 2016, the PSEi averages +72% during this season.
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Why we didn’t recommend that clients subscribe to the follow on offering of $SGP.
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Coke PH seems to change owner every ~5years. If the pattern holds, CCEP-AEV will sell out by 2028/29.
Question is, why doesn't anyone want to hold it for longer?
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IMO, economists/businessmen shouldn’t get to decide when ECQ is lifted. Leave it to scientists/health professionals who will judge based on data after mass testing which only starts on April 14 (end of ECQ). Chart below shows what happens if you lift quarantine too early.
A group of prominent economists appealed to the government to end the Luzon-wide lockdown as originally scheduled on April 12, and henceforth shift to “calibrated easing”. |
@Philbizwatcher
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Results of survey within our FB group on who they will vote for on May 9. Not scientific. Relatively homogeneous (likely by age, economic class, gender). About 13% response rate.
#Halalan2022
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It helps to destress or when writer’s block takes hold.
The reindeer, Santa’s sleigh and a Christmas tree came next. Still working on Santa which is harder than i thought.
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Me (trying to give a pep talk to my daughters about studying): Your brain is like a pencil. You need to study to keep it sharp.
Eldest: Won't our brains become smaller, then?
Youngest: Exactly!!
Wife: 😂😂😂
Me: 😶
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I watched this documentary a while back. Will make you understand why Ukrainians are fiercely resisting Putin.
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PSEi is now recovering but is still more than 3 standard deviations from its 10-year forward P/E mean. Rarely does a better opportunity present itself for long term investors.
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First, don't use $ because Php:$ can be influenced by external factors.
Second, if GMA's economy was so strong, why did ratings agencies downgrade the 🇵🇭 a total of 5x during her term including a 2-notch from Moody's?
Third: She benefited from a low base.
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Since '96, there have only been 20 days wherein the share volume traded on the PSE was > 50 billion (~0.3% of all trading days in 25+ years). Of these 20, just 1 happened prior to 2020. Of the rest, 18 occurred in the past 2 months alone. Read our
#ShortTakes
for what this means.
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This chart illustrates one reason why we recommended a subscribe on the IPO of $ALLDY. For our full report, log in to or sign up with
@MyTradePH
.
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This is the “Key Recommendations” slide from our presentation to clients beginning in the latter part of May. I discussed our “Dogs” strategy during the PSE Webinar last October 23 (watch here 👉 ).
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This is basically the same issue that was brought up regarding $KEEPR in our work GC. Sharing below what i said in reply. Hope this helps.
@PhStockExchange
@SEC_Philippines
bakit nyo hinayaan magpalist yang $KEEPR after nila e scam kaming small investors. Par Value Change,reverse stock split then FOO
@1
.5????? Kulang nlng sabihin n Lucio Co gusto nya nakawin pera namin..
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The ticker "SOLAR" was applied for but rejected by the PSE as being too generic. Don't know how it's different from $COAL, $FRUIT, $HOUSE, and especially $FOOD.
On $SPNEC: "Why not just rebrand the company under a cool ticker like “SOLAR”, and then rename the company “Solar Philippines” (or some light variation to distinguish from the existing Solar Philippines entity) and be done with it?"
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Be Like Po
Posted this a while back in our (MyTrade) FB group. Just thought i’d share it here as well. For stock market beginners, pros, and everyone else in between.
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A bit of context:
The vast majority of MV's wealth comes from $HVN which has a Php436B/$8.35B market cap of which he owns 88.6% (worth $7.4B). If not for the unrealistic price of the stock (340x trailing P/E), he would be many rungs lower in Forbes' ranking.
Tycoon Manuel Villar Jr. built a business and political empire unrivalled anywhere in the country.
At 72-years-old, succession is on his mind after betting on a victory for survey frontrunner and dictator’s son, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., on the May 9 elections.
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Excluding the usual suspects (e.g. Mercury, Unilab) or 🇵🇭 units of MNCs (e.g. Nestle, Pfizer), which domestic companies would you like to see go public.
I’ll start.
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P1.0 billion is only ~P5,600 per PUV driver. Diesel has 📈 about P18/liter YTD & PUJs use at least 20-25 liters/day. So this “subsidy” will help PUJ drivers for 15 days at most. Putting off fare hikes is good for inflation but, surely, more can be done for the transport sector.
The government will give away cash grants totaling P1 billion to at least 178,000 registered drivers of PUVs, like jeepneys and buses, to help ease the impact of a continuing increase in oil prices. |
@bendeveraINQ
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Prime Infra should do an IPO.
Would be the first in line to volunteer as underwriter 🙋♂️
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Some articles say that the 🇵🇭’ IMD competitiveness ranking is the worst in 5 years. After going through and checking various sources, we can see that it’s actually the lowest since PGMA’s time (17 years).
Based on the World Competitiveness Ranking 2021 of Switzerland-based Institute for Management Development (IMD), the Philippines ranked 52nd out of 64 countries based on prosperity and competitiveness.
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Sent this internally yesterday:
“after the buy in of GIC, the upcoming SRO & share swap to acquire AC’s int’l energy assets, $ACEN will have ~39B shares. Its pro forma market cap (@ 10.30/sh) is now over 400B, 7th largest in the entire market. Irrational exuberance, in my view.”
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1. 🇵🇭 did default in '83 (link below)
2. It was never about ability to pay but rather the onerous terms of the loan
3. Even if 🇵🇭 continued to service debts post EDSA 1 for white 🐘 projects during Marcos era, it was at the expense of infra/other crucial spending
DOF Secretary Carlos Dominguez III: “The Philippines has never, never defaulted on its loans. The Philippines has not done it even in the worst time, and the worst time was right after Marcos." |
@bendeveraINQ
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My accountancy degree was long, long ago but i don’t think generally accepted accounting principles have changed so much that “gain from acquisition” would form part of gross profit/operating income.
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As chief fanboy, all i can say that it’s not too late to change minds on $SPNEC. Our TP had a lot of scope to upgrade even *before* the planned share swap was announced. Tweet me your questions, doubts, etc. and i’ll see if i can answer them.
1. $MWC: new 25yr water concession from the Pres
2. $SPNEC: my inbox filled with fanboys and bashers
3. Q&A: Is Dennis Uy the "Controversial Businessman" from that Bilyo blind item?
Today’s email:
Join the Barkada:
#PSEiupdate
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Back to tweeting…
There is something wonky about the 🇵🇭’s employment data. See below how the size of the labor force and the number of employed have both increased to levels well above trend (each ~2 std. devs. above the trend line). So we took a closer look.
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Lopez Holdings has an effective 34.6% interest in $FGEN. The latter, now with a market cap of P121.9B, is thus worth P41.8B to the former. With 4.54B shares outstanding, this is equivalent to P9.21/share to $LPZ or 146% more than the delisting tender offer price of P3.75.
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Let's not obsess over manufacturing. Can't compete with 🇹🇭 or 🇻🇳 because 🇵🇭 is an archipelago & many of our neighbors have subsidized 🔌💡. Play to our strengths: services, tourism and F&B. We are just entering our demographic window. 🇵🇭 is not a lost cause despite our politics.
Here’s global investment banker Stephen CuUnjieng on the current state of the Philippine economy, Philippine politics, and more.
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Can local...
...Diaper firms (e.g. Unitrade/EQ) pivot to making face masks?
...Packaging firms (e.g. San Miguel Packaging) make other PPEs?
...Electronics manufacturers (e.g. $IMI, $ION, $TECH) shift to producing ventilators?
Maybe they just beed to be asked to help?
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Modern jeepney lowest price Php1.2m less 80k subsidy = Php1.12m. At 6% p.a., 7yrs to pay, monthly amort = Php16,360. Is this affordable?
MUST READ: CLARIFICATION on the allegation that
#PUVModernization
Program is anti-poor.
#DOTr
🇵🇭👊❤️
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There aren't 300k OFWs in mainland China. MAYBE 300k includes HK + Macau in the total.
Why? Latest (end 2018) BSP data shows $850M of remittances from HK, $120M from Macau & < $50M from the mainland.
Furthermore, the majority of Pinoys in HK + Macau are there legally.
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Don’t begrudge the high toll or the convenience that it will afford to those who can pay.
For years, Metro Manila has been suffering from traffic/gridlock caused by poor planning. $SMC took a risk with this project & deserves a decent return. Profits can then be used to build...
While cruising through the 18-kilometer elevated expressway is free at the moment, San Miguel Corporation will start charging fees after February 1.
A document published by the Toll Regulatory Board shows the proposed prices for Skyway Stage 3 toll.
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We try to do right by our clients. Always.
@MyTradePH
I still remember when $CEB had an issue, Abacus returned their shares, letting go of profits. Now this $AREIT.
Of all the online brokers
@MyTradePH
@HoR_102
is the only one that holds responsibility with platform issues. The rest are just plain and archaic Sorry.
Respect.
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May 2016 was the worst revenge trade ever and the 🇵🇭 just doubled down on it. More often than not this is bad strategy. People just don't know when to cut their losses.
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...well below original gov't projections of up to 8% despite the wide fiscal space inherited and the massive spending financed by additional taxes from TRAIN.
As for 2020 to present, 🇵🇭 GDP recovery has lagged well behind that of our regional peers due to weak pandemic response.
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This tells me that realigning the budget and using GOCC funds is unnecessary. Another, much better option, is to enact a supplemental budget.
Look: Monetary Board authorizes BSP to purchase P300B in government securities from the Bureau of Treasury, to fund fight against COVID-19.
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Ten years ago, $TEL accounted for 33.0% of the PSE index. Today, it's down to less than a tenth of that at 2.6%.
Over the same period, $SM's weight in the index has jumped from 4.1% to 13.4%.
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"Ung analyst ng abacus" ?
That would be, er... me 😶
@HoR_102
Ung analyst ng abacus hindi na factor in ung lupa na lalagyan ng negosyo. Fire out yan kun sumipa presyo ng subway irc...
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