Todd Jordan
@HedgeyeSnakeye
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The MD for Gaming, Lodging and Leisure and CFO at Hedgeye, TJ enjoys the analysis and pursuit of leisure. Previously a PM and Analyst at JAM, Cobalt & Ardsley.
CT, Macau, Singapore, LV
Joined September 2010
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will be on
@HedgeyeTV
macro show tomorrow discussing the casino sector including $BYD $RRR $LVS. tune in!
@Hedgeye
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Street looking for -92% casino rev growth for April and
#Macau
posts -97% and that's with the casinos opened for the full month!
#notbearishenough
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$PENN starting the rebuilding process. the release of oct gaming revs from the states could help. last night, Iowa led off with a 27% increase vs 2019. we'll see over the next few weeks if other states can match that strong growth
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$NCLH pushes cruising back to October, at the earliest, from August. bad for $CCL and $RCL too. so there goes that positive catalyst...
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gotta give credit to
@KeithMcCullough
who's model signaled something was wrong with $PENN ealier this week. had broken trend
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not to give
@KeithMcCullough
a bigger head but he also called the 2009 bullish turn and helped my career immensely...
In retrospect, when I called all 3 Phases of The Bear market of 2007-2009, I didn't have Twitter trolls and haters, yet
That's why I'm going to enjoy Phase III of this Bear Market all the more
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i'm not a fan of
@BusinessInsider
for many reasons and journalstic integrity, or the lack thereof, is high on the list. a reputable journalistic outfit would have published the latest hit piece weeks ago. so un-WSJ to release on earnings day 2 quarters in a row.
#agenda
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as painful it has been since turning positive on $PENN in May,
@stoolpresidente
definitely makes things very interesting. controversy=opporunity...sometimes
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$EXPE that's more like it. like night and day from the Q2 conference call. the bear narratives of marketing inefficiency and lost market share look pretty short sighted now
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the $PENN move today wasn't making sense, particularly since, based on Oct, Street Q4 estimates looked low. and then the
@BusinessInsider
piece on
@stoolpresidente
comes out...
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Insinuating that we have some kind of love for
@stoolpresidente
that clouds objectivity is ludicrous. This firm was started on the concept of transparency & objectivity. We would sacrifice our foundation to be "fanboys"?
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$DKNG provides positive outlook and guidance. bullish for $PENN and $BYD
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Trending US RevPAR growth turns negative for the 1st time in a long time. ugly charts especially for $CHH (RHC) and the hotel REITs $PEB $PK $XHR
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$PENN and $RRR finally getting some love. it's about time - the fundies are terrific.
#covidwinner
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$PENN with the upside pre-announcement. we're in the middle of their new range, way above the Street. good timing for our new gaming presentation tomorrow $RRR $BYD $PENN
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$DKNG is a beast. definitely a catalyst driven stock and as long as the catalysts continue to line up positive, we'll keep it on Best Ideas
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$HLT says unit growth will return to normal next year. i'll take the under on that
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$BYD huge Q3. $213MM in EBITDA, 48 above Street. formally we were at 191 but i thought they could do 205. so beat my optimistic #
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in a constant generational battle with my junior analyst - i have to zoom the models after he saves them. it was just 2 yrs ago that i didn't need readers...
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and the hits just keep coming... $CCL discounting 2021 to stimulate bookings but volumes still behind
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just published our $PENN note. we take a look at what the brick & mortar casino business is worth on a stand alone basis. so in the incredibly unlikely scenario that SB/iG and Barstool Media is worthless
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it took Street Account 3 tries and 7 hours to get it right. EBITDA does not equal EBITDAR. $PENN with the big beat
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$PENN with the one of the most positive conference calls i've heard in the last few years
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This $RCL print and guidance hike is insane. Great read through to $CCL. Our value proposition thesis playing through in real time
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@Paul35105664
@Hedgeye
@stoolpresidente
@BusinessInsider
@barstoolsports
@hblodget
in case you misssed it: doubles in $BYD $PENN (last time) & $RRR plus other big winners $DKNG short (my $PENN hedge), $EXPE $BKNG. i'm sure i'll have another bad call though and i'll once again own it. have a good night
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we had high expectations for NV but up 37% and 25% for downtown and the locals market? sheesh. $RRR $BYD
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difficult to find many holes in the $DKNG quarter and guidance. mgmt seems to have found religion on the path to profitability
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#Sandbagging
- to conceal or misrepresent one's true position, potential, or intent especially in order to gain an advantage - Merriam-Webster. $CCL guidance is ridiculously conservative...
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this is stunning
NORTH MACEDONIA!!! ONE OF THE GREAT UPSETS OF ALL TIME 🤯
AS IT STANDS, ITALY ARE OUT OF THE WORLD CUP!
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decent bounce in GLL stocks after the thanksgiving massacre. if consumers look through
#Omicron
like they ultimately did
#DeltaVariant
, there's a lot of upside $BYD $RRR $EXPE $PENN $BKNG $WYNN $RHP
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Hotel C-Corps breaking down. usually the worst performing GLL subsector in Quad 4. finally acting like it. multiple and catalysts suggest $MAR can go a lot lower...
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$BYD blowout Q2 - good read through to $RRR. LV Locals beat us by 30% on the EBITDA and the Street by 65%! $RRR is almost 100% Locals
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ugly $PEB. prediction: even after this guide down, consensus estimates still won't go low enough. hotel REITs are in trouble...
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if the pattern holds, $BYD will sell off from the open but will prove to be a great buying opportunity. what a quarter. Hedgeye Best Idea
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solid finish to october in
#Macau
- and nov will prove even better, maybe much better. 2nd derivative is happening $LVS $WYNN
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mixed bag for our Best Ideas during the day but after the close, some big winners...
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got the shorts right on earnings today but the longs reacted pretty negatively to decent prints. tomorrow will be much better $DKNG $BKNG
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$PENN
#Barstool
$SCR convincing investors that $1 billion in both equity and stock is worth it. nice turnaround in the stock
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$BYD straight up into the Q so "sell on the news" and
#COVID19
- i get it. but been in this biz for a long time (i'm old) and can't recall such poor treatment after such a bullet proof Q and conf call
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$BYD a tough act to follow these days but $RRR is a (red) rock star. great Q2 with very good read through to the future. Street
#s
need to go way higher
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IL follows MI's lead in closing casinos. they were the odds on favorite to be next. $BYD generates less than 2% revs from IL and 0 from MI
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God Bless America! $WYNN and $MGM blow out Q2 and discuss a mostly sustainble environment...in the USA. No help from
#Macau
where visibility is muddled, at best
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back from vacation in Scandanavia visiting daughter studying abroad. great family time and sightseeing
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finished our 80+ page slide$WYNN presentation. interestingly, institutional investor attendance was lower than usual. incoming from instituitons about
#Macau
also have been light the last few months. tells you a little about sentiment. could be bullish
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if $ABNB = $DASH, then what does that mean for $EXPE, $BKNG? can't be bad...
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and btw, we have no ties to portnoy. definitely respect for what he's built & the PENN/Barstool sportsbetting/media opportunity. i don't know the man but i do like certain things about him and dislike other things
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i remember this well. the
@Hedgeye
naysayers were proclaiming
@KeithMcCullough
a perma bear. and he nailed the bullish turn.
Oh I'm well aware. I started Hedgeye making the 2008 crash call and went bullish April 2009
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a lot of new macro analysis to be included in the presentation. tying it back to
#macrothemes
from
@KeithMcCullough
. wealth effect could be different than other consumer sectors
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top shelf casino properties outperform in downturns/recoveries and underperform in boom times. $WYNN proved our thesis last night in every market
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the quality of the
#LVStrip
clientele has diminished so much that even I would fit in $MGM $WYNN $CZR
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big gaming deck to be presented tomorrow at 2pm ET. $BYD $PENN $RRR. defensive or offensive? or both
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there's so much nuance to this $PENN ESPN deal and the impact on the industry
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this upgrade cycle for $CCL is quite powerful but are they late to the party?
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$RRR casino revenues actually grew YoY???? what pandemic?
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misspoke on The Call
@Hedgeye
this morning. PK's Hawaii exposure is 20%, not 10% - even worse!
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#Macau
government releases public consultation results and opinions regarding concession renewal. Reads pretty good for the casino companies, way better than feared
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the big takeaway from this $BYD call is top/bottom line trends have continued in Q4. forward numbers are going a lot higher
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not good for regional casinos $BYD $PENN $BALY $CHDN
The median price of a new home sold in the US is now down 18% from its peak in October 2022. After the housing bubble in the 2000s the median new home price fell 22% nationally.
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wild stock action in $DKNG on fri. +14% to +2% and closed +5%. profit taking or something else?
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$NCLH action is wild. our least favorite cruise stock but investors may be too short sighted. '24 should be huge for the industry. still prefer $CCL and to a lesser extent, $RCL
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from a blurb from early May. would love to have
@stoolpresidente
to discuss $PENN, his business, and his views on the market with
@KeithMcCullough
on
@HedgeyeTV
"One takeaway is that $PENN has a plan for the recovery, and our guess is that it’s likely a plan that’s very adaptable to the uncertainty and it’s likely a better plan than the competition."
via
@HedgeyeSnakeye
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$CHH should be down more. missing RevPAR and lowering guidance because of...tough comps? shouldn't they have known that?
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@Hedgeye
@HedgeyeIndstrls
@HedgeyeGLL
Leisure travel is accelerating rapidly and will with or without the mask mandate. but it will be a catalyst when it happens. $EXPE $VAC
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i'd love some feedback on what people now think of the
@stoolpresidente
situation - as unbiased as you can be. he's like
@HowardStern
used to be before he got all mainstream and hollywood - you either love him or hate him. so pls don't bring your previous views into it. thanks
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this $ABNB shareholder transition is going to be interesting. out with the old and in with the new...tech/hyper growth => GARP & FCF growth
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just started drinking a deftly made martini. in the mood to discuss stocks - anything leisure/travel/casino. fire them up!
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and then there is this...ugh $RRR $MGM $CZR $BYD
In line with Emergency Directive 045, State of Nevada adopts latest CDC guidance on masks effective Friday, July 30.
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just booked a cruise and apparently i'm not alone. cruise trends remain positive $CCL $NCLH $RCL you know which stock we like...
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Mind the gap...done with 3 days of meetings with institutional investors in London. guess which stock most investors wanted to talk about?
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love these
#Macau
downgrades the last few days. sentiment and fundamentals may be diverging...
#RecoveryPivot
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just published a note on the SF hotel mkt "Two Tales of One City". $PEB very exposed and has 1 opinion while $PK has announced they are walking away from 2 SF properties and seem more candid
BREAKING:
#SanFrancisco
The Federal Building is telling Nancy Pelosi and other workers to work from home because coming into the San Francisco federal office is to dangerous. I took a walk outside the San Francisco Federal Building. I SAW 49 PEOPLE SMOKING AND INJECTING FENTANYL
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i think maybe there was negative equity value for sportsbetting imbedded in $PENN
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$WYNN reaches break even in October in
#Macau
. market revs were down 72.5% so pretty impressive
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the
#Macau
set up is very interesting. $WYNN $LVS underperforming since vaccine trade. investors frustrated with timing of visa relaxation. low valuations
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big cruise deck tomorrow. the analysis revealed some very interesting developments. $CCL $NCLH $RCL
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Not exactly the biggest state in the union but trend should continue. even Texas is considering OSB and the House there just passed a bill
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$PENN higher than pre-Covid levels with EBITDA estimates down ~25%+. the power of
#Barstool
@stoolpresidente
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more upgrades of $CCL today. sentiment is shifting on one of our top ideas
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$ABNB S-1 filing is out. Our pre-IPO report coming soon for subscribers. it will be a big one
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some more negative data out for hotels $MAR $PEB $PK $XHR pipeline and bookings
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