Henry Schlottman
@HN_Schlottman
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Independent OSINT/Operations Analyst. Contributor for @NZZ . DM box open.
Abilene, Kansas
Joined August 2017
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We have finished the initial website compiling assessed Russian unit locations across 🇺🇦 down to the brigade/regimental level. Thanks to
@simon_huwiler
for creating this awesome website! We will be updating every few days. More info to follow (1/3)
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Quick little force ratio product showing estimated BTGs and frontages by operational direction. Information derived from US government releases and uawardata locations. More notes on image.
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🇷🇺 is likely trying to attempt another river crossing at Bilohorivka based on the recent statement of Serhiy Haidai:
"Bilohorivka is now holding back the 🇷🇺 invasion, our defenders have twice destroyed pontoon crossings and based on their actions, there will also be a 3rd time"
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Huge amounts of Russian equipment losses coming out. Will likely take days to go through with dan, defmon, naalsio among others to try to determine units. Mostly 26th Guards and 11th Tank Regiments, 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 27th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade ATM.
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Thread about the captured Russian plans for the Kherson region, dated 10 March. Ukrainian military intel has already fully exploited this. I've gone through it, translating and recreated sections of it in NATO symbology. Here is the original source.
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Created a new overall map showing Rus. avenues of advance by each CAA and the estimated BTG count of each (pre-invasion). Current as of 2200 UTC on the 10th. I think this approach highlights the potential vulnerability of their advance pretty well, especially in the north.
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🇺🇦 General Staff: Two BTGs from 76th Guards Air Assault Division have been transferred to the city of Izyum
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1/ A few people have asked me about Russian logistics, a enormously complicated topic. Specifically, they wanted to know if there was a logistical constraint on their operations. The short answer is possibly and more work required. Thread will explain pic. Caveats in 2nd tweet.
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Elements of 4th GTD got as far as the outskirts of Myrhorod ~ 8 March. Saw next to nothing from them after. Trostyanets' likely retaken by 🇺🇦. 4th GTD significantly degraded, members from all 3 maneuver regiments have been captured, so its not likely they have much in reserve
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4th Guards has had issues keeping its vehicles running since the war began. Spare parts shortage, lack of preventive maintenance, or lack of fuel maybe. Perhaps all of the above. If these tanks were running, the UA counteroffensive might not have been as successful as it was.
The Russian military decided to overwhelm Ukrainian logistics near Izyum with the burden of recovering and repairing a couple of companies’ worth of T-80 tanks. The cunning minds of the 4th Guards Kantemirov Division strike again. (1/2)
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Update for Kyiv's Western Outskirts for today as of 1200 UTC. Identified 5th Tank and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade elements along M06. Still experimenting with formating, this time with a light background again and BTGs represented by vehicle icons.
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Managed to get close to 22 BTG figure around Izium stated by 🇺🇸 gov officials. Less sure about the Severodonetsk grouping size (mostly Central Military District) but probably not too far off. Assuming BTGs are consolidated once losses reach a certain point.
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🇷🇺forces, likely from 2nd Combined Arms Army, have entered Zarcihne. Reported by both 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦 sources. Fighting also reported in Yampil.
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DPR troops are being issued Mosin–Nagants. I saw a little bit of this a couple months ago but thought it might have been an isolated incident.
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Someone asked for additional evidence on how we know the Russian forces are redeploying from Kyiv to Belgorod Oblast
@Apple
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Updated overall map and insets for three key areas. Some Russian gains in the south, little/no progress elsewhere. Gained some additional clarity on Russian unit locations at the regimental level, especially in the southeast.
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The Russian Air Force and Ministry of Defense took the time to produce a video of one of their most advanced attack helicopters attacking a concrete bridge support from World War Two while their ground troops in Kharkiv Oblast begged for effective air support in vain.
GeoConfirmed.
"Another fake news story: Russians claim they have footage of the attack on the barge with Ukrainian Special Forces, but in fact they attacked a bridge support."
note: i can't believe i am writing this.
Support: 47.516334, 34.381451
GeoLocated by
@ua_industrial
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The commander of the 13th Guards Tank Regiment (4th Guards Tank Division) reportedly committed suicide according to Ukrainian sources. Possibly somewhere in the Sumy area.
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1/ TASS: Executive director of Kurganmashzavod (KMZ) appears to have been asked by the Russian MOD to resume production of "earlier generation BMPs", likely meaning BMP-2's (overhauls and possibly new builds). Currently, they produce mainly BMP-3's/BMD-4M's. Possible explanation
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"The Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group ambushed a Russian military column and destroyed 3 enemy armored vehicles."
Українська диверсійно-розвідувальна група влаштувала засідку російській військовій колоні та знищила 3 бронетехніки ворога.
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Pics from the ground are starting to come out from Bilohorivka (Білогорівка) via Yuriy Butusov. Up to 4 🇺🇦 brigades involved over 8 days of fighting: 57th Motorized Infantry, 58th Motorized Infantry, 80th Air Assault, and 128th Mountain Infantry.
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Recent reporting by Russian accounts of the heavy losses a "guards brigade" sustained at Bilohorivka supports previous assessments based on equipment that 35th SGMRB is the unit involved. BMP-2s and 1 possible T-72B3 suggests it may have been a composite BTG with 74th SGMRB.
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Hi all, been a while so figured it would be a good time to give an update on what I've been working on. Basically a ground level up study on supply requirements for Russian units and an effort to understand potential issues in Russian force design.
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Oh boy...might be able to figure out personnel strength for every Russian unit in the campaign. Going through this now.
"Personal data of 120 thousand soldiers of the Russian Federation fighting in Ukraine.. list provided by the Ukrainian Pravda Center.. Among the data in the list are names, registration number and place of service of Russians"
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Update for NE Ukraine (as of 1800UTC today). Ukraine General Staff reports ~7 BTGs from 2nd/41st CAAs in the Brovary and Boryspil areas, a significant increase from last report. Also, another possible counterattack in SE Kharkiv, retaking Chuhuiv. More details on map's assessment
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1/4 Some people (mainly tankies TBH) seem to have the impression that the Avdiivka withdrawal consisted of hundreds of Ukrainians leaving all at once and getting hit in the open. It's now apparent the retreat lasted for several days at least and consisted of mostly small groups.
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The majority of T-80 losses tracked by
@oryxspioenkop
were from this unit, including, I believe, all 46 T-80U's lost.
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Last month, 🇺🇦 military intel posted what appeared to be a complete roster of 🇷🇺 136th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. It helpfully provided info for contract vs conscript personnel (rare) which I've broken down by subunit in this graphic. 1/
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Updated map of BTG deployments IVO
#Ukraine
. 110 to match released US intel assessments. ~90 are located on this map (> 20 are unlocated). I've broken down each CAA by hypothetical assigned area of front. Units listed only include maneuver. My opinion/notes on each CAA below.
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1/ A couple of somewhat brief opinions/thoughts on the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast.
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Fortuitous reporting occurring slightly after the bridgehead was first reported yesterday indicated approximately 10 🇷🇺 vehicles destroyed at Bilohorivka. Region admin reported today all vehicles destroyed. ~80 🇷🇺 pax made it to the south bank, some still possibly in Bilohorivka.
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Naval infantry elements observed possibly leaving Mariupol area.
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Updated maps and assessment with insets for NW Kyiv, Mykolaiv/Kherson area, and SE Ukraine as of 20 March. Static in N and E. Limited Russian/separatist gains in S still threaten possible encirclement, but this is dependent on remaining Russian offensive potential.
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@simon_huwiler
Zooming will allow to toggle the possible location of BTGs. We left that as optional as some people will prefer just the standard icons.
The information data and background is available here:
It is free to use and download as long as cited.
(3/3)
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1/ Last week's statements of 🇷🇺 firing 50-60k shells/rockets for every 5-6k 🇺🇦 shells presented a unique opportunity to quantify 🇷🇺 current artillery advantage in terms of rounds fired per system and draw some preliminary conclusions. See attached picture /brief thread hopefully
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@simon_huwiler
Eventually we have a page for each Russian unit with its starting equipment, commander, history, awards. Ukrainian unit information will be added following the conclusion of hostilities. We will also go back and add information for each day (2/3)
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🇺🇦 General Staff: An additional 20 railcars of ammunition have been sent from Belarus to Belgorod.
This number is likely on top of the 100 railcars sent from Bronnaya Gara. Assuming ~20 tons of ammunition per rail car, 2400 tons total possibly so far sent from Belarus to Russia.
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Senators Call for U.S. to Give Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS▶
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1/ I've gone through the original posting by
@DI_Ukraine
and looked at losses for each unit. I've made a graphic listing a couple of the key ones, as well as some comparative rates from Lawrence's "War by Numbers" (
@dupuyinstitute
)
Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW.
Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks.
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Genuinely wondering if
@JakeSullivan46
hid out in a continuity of government bunker somewhere last night after he found out Ukraine hit Morozovsk and Engels. It's ok buddy, you can come out now.
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3/ While there were no doubt Ukrainian losses, we would be seeing more if they were anywhere as significant as the Russian losses. Framing this as anything other than a significant victory, potentially altering the course of the war, would be a mistake.
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Isn't really a direct apples to apples comparison for a BTG vs a UA brigade. Depends on what type of brigade it is. Depending on the brigade, I would hazard judging it anywhere from 2 to 3 BTG "equivalents." There are so many factors at play when you start doing that though.
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If the UA General Staff is accurate on this one, T-62's are going to start showing in Ukraine pretty soon.
A 🧵 on Russian tank losses in Ukraine:
1/19)
Yesterday, the UA Gen. Staff. noted intel in their daily update that RU has begun pulling T-62s from long-term storage to equip newly formed BTGs slated for deployment to Ukraine. This has serious implications for RU’s armored forces.
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Russian supply point hit, possibly near Izium. Most trucks are parked in earthen revetments to limit collateral damage from indirect fire. Nice to see the close up drone footage.
Video with some music seems better, the guys promised to send me far better drone video once I give them a better drone! 😀
#SlavaUkraini
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Map for Kyiv's Eastern Approaches as of 2200 UTC 01MAR. With more information, I was able to get better fidelity on how 1st GTA was arrayed at the border. Dotted is low confidence, solid is moderate confidence. Otherwise NATO symbology mostly, with a bit of artistic license.
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Terrain is a closer match for Izium area around Mala Komyshuvakha/Kam'yanka, would also fit more with what we know of current dispositions.
@DefMon3
Russian tank column in the Kherson region ready for a little trip towards Nikolaev. I’m not 100% sure but it looks like the 4th guards tank division with the T-80U’s in there.
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Try not to use hyperbole often, but it's hard to use a word other than "collapse". Remains to be seen how organized the Russian withdrawal is in Kharkiv/NW Luhansk Oblasts. National Guard/LPR forces are left behind as the regular units retreat.
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Estimating casualties thread
Current theory (subject to change): 🇺🇦 and 🇷🇺 are sustaining heavy losses. 🇷🇺 never achieved a decisive advantage in force ratio, securing Donbas is dependent on utilization of factors I haven't measured yet (overwhelming fires and air superiority).
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Update for 13 May done on
Data:
Assessment: 🇷🇺 will likely reevaluate options following losses sustained in Siverskyi Donets crossing attempts. Main ground effort will possibly shift towards developing an offensive out of Popasna
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2/ Hundreds of Russian vehicles were lost, most being abandoned. At least 200, more will be counted over the coming days. Based on others' work on analyzing Oryx's data with captured Russian documents, I generally assume the # we count on social media is 70% of the actual total.
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Bridgehead at Bilohorivka has likely been neutralized.
🇷🇺 continuing attempts to establish bridgeheads over the Siversky Donets. 1st was repulsed north of Dronivka, low confidence it was 35th SMRB (limited # of BMP-1AMs in service). More serious attempt ongoing at Bilohorivka. 🇷🇺 has some forces across. Threatens Lysychans'k LOC's.
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Updated maps of key areas. 1st GTA remaining combat-capable formations largely driven back to the border, 🇺🇦 slowly pushing 22nd AC/49th CAA to the Dnipro River, 🇷🇺 attempting to continue offensive south of Izyum/Izium. A few more alibis/notes in replies.
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Source is Ukrainian General Staff, but some of the Izyum grouping may have withdrawn due to losses sustained. If we're using the somewhat flawed BTG metric to measure this, might be around ~4 of 22.
Due to heavy losses, the enemy withdrew units from the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army and the 106th Airborne Division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to rebuild.
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operational information as of 18:00 on 5 May 2022
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Update for 6 April is complete for . Main changes from 3 April:
- 35th CAA begins arriving @ Belgorod/Izium axis
- 49th CAA/22nd AC possibly preparing to withdraw over Dnipro
Data available here:
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Finland in NATO would be pretty disastrous to Russia's remaining strategic depth along its western border. Goes to show how counterproductive this entire endeavor has been for them.
My piece on Finland’s rapid moves towards a NATO bid. Gov’t update on security policy due Apr 14th. Things could move fast after that. “I'm pretty confident we will be filing the membership agreement…in a few weeks’ time” as MP
@elinavaltonen
told me.
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9/ Also somewhat interesting that the Luhansk fighters and BARS reservists are putting up more resistance than "elite" formations like 1st GTA did, which doesn't really gel with prewar expectations. Crossing the Seversky Donets isn't easy, as the Russians found discovered /end
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1/ Made a more refined take on BTG logistical requirements, now taking into account fuel and ammunition packaging size. If spaced out daily, it still came to about ~14 truckloads + ~3 7,500 L tanker trucks (deleted the 1st thread because Twitter didn't like PowerPoint)
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Another Russian armored column going single file down a road.
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I am late to this but Russia appears to have suffered a significant defeat near Snihurivka and may be in the process of pulling out of Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipro. Many thought their position on the west bank was untenable for months, may have finally unraveled yesterday.
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Update for 1 April is now complete for . The main change from 31 March was the withdrawal of 🇷🇺 forces from NW of Kyiv. By 2 April, all 🇷🇺forces had departed Kyiv Oblast. Another change was pushing 90th GTD elements east following 🇺🇦 counterattacks. (1/2)
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On the SE side of Mykolaiv. the plan apparently was for 3 VDV BTGs to lead the advance into the city, with 20th GMRD in the rear. Note the heavy concentration of fires units around Pravdyne. C2 appears to have been back at Chornobaivka and the Kherson airfield, which got hit hard
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Keep in mind this is almost 2 weeks old and the Russians have already been pushed back from Mykolaiv. Thanks to
@OSINT_Tactical
for bringing this to my attention~
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Additional info: At least 3 BMD's also visible, suggesting at least a platoon of VDV attached to the operation. + estimate to 2 BTG's, still from 35th and 74th SGMRB's (41st CAA). 74th possibly took the brunt of losses according to
@InformNapalm
.
Recent reporting by Russian accounts of the heavy losses a "guards brigade" sustained at Bilohorivka supports previous assessments based on equipment that 35th SGMRB is the unit involved. BMP-2s and 1 possible T-72B3 suggests it may have been a composite BTG with 74th SGMRB.
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Confirmation Ukrainian 17th Separate Tank Brigade was the unit involved at Bilohorivka. Low confidence assessment the Russian unit was from 90th Guards Tank Division based on equipment and previous location. Much of the equipment is hard to recognize with current footage though.
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If nothing changes and there are no significant delays, Wagner might be inside Moscow within about six hours. We'll see what the Rosgvardia and Kadyrovites do. Obviously, the situation is highly fluid at this stage.
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6/ The main reason for this was the vehicles and equipment were mostly abandoned, possibly out of action prior to the counteroffensive due to maintenance issues. There was very little actual fighting, mostly consisting of Russian delaying actions.
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Pro-Russian sources are reporting a tank battle involving 4th Guards Tank Division's 13th Tank Regiment south of Izium. Haven't seen the original source yet or footage, but I'm fairly confident they have been recommitted in this sector.
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Here the units involved are listed on the map. Not many surprises. 49th CAA has the 66th C2 Brigade attached. 22nd Army Corps I didn't have in my previous maps, knew it was in the area, has 20th GMRD attached. Numerous other Southern Military District subordinate units.
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"Two BTGs of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade and a combined BTG of 59th Tank Regiment were defeated near Kharkiv." 59th TR belongs to 144th Motorized Rifle Division. Reports coming out today this regiment was also in the Malaya Rohan area along with 138th. Thanks
@eto_tak
.
Дві БТГ 138-ї мотострілецької бригади та зведена БТГ 59-го танкового полку ЗС РФ розгромлені під Харковом воїнам 92-ї бригади та добровольчими загонами, - Бутусов. ФОТО
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Looks like Ukrainian forces are hitting the somewhat exposed Russian western flank some of you brought up. Elements of 36th and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigades and 5th Tank Brigade are in the area.
Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive against the Russians near Kyiv.
The strategic village of Makariv has been liberated while the Russians are also being pushed back near Borodyanka, Bucha and Irpin.
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Ukraine Operational Command North: Abandoned T-80 tanks of 4th Guards Tanks Division, 1st Guards Tank Army. Possibly T-80BV and T-80U. Not sure how this advance turned out overall for them, they might be trying to get on T1705.
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4/ However, I do tend to be cautious, which I do to try to be realistic and to restrain my innate biases. Although Russian equipment losses were high, it is apparent to me that their personnel losses were likely as high as one may expect with the amount of equipment lost.
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The Russians are retreating/routing faster than I thought when I finished updating the data yesterday, so I'll try to update the map either tonight or tomorrow morning for 1 April to capture what's going on east and north west of Kyiv
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5/ At the moment, in the absence of additional information, I think the number of Russian casualties (KIA/WIA) in the counteroffensive, specifically in Kharkiv Oblast, was in the high hundreds, not thousands. For a prisoner estimate, I would also say several hundred for now.
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8/ I was going to write about if Ukraine will be fully able to continue exploitation into the Luhansk Oblast, but the situation is still very fluid, supply may be a concern as well. The resistance from Luhansk and BARS reservists at Lyman may have been an unexpected development.
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Per other reports, this convoy includes probably at least one MTO (logistics) battalion, with maybe a C2 brigade as well. Accounting for it being 8 miles long, might be an MTO brigade. MTO battalions are designed to support brigades/divisions, MTO brigades - a Combined Arms Army
NEW: Russia's 8-mile long convoy of military and supply vehicles near the Donbas is just under 40 miles north of Ukraine's Izyum: senior U.S. defense official.
The convoy is heading south, but is forced to stay on paved roads because of spring weather, the official said.
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7/ The Izium grouping of several thousand personnel, in particular, was largely able to escape unfortunately (without armored vehicles). There are some suggestions this was an agreement between the Ukrainians and Russians. I'm not sure one way or the other at the moment on this.
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Overall, a moderate Russian advantage in # of personnel and armored vehicles, probably more of an advantage in fires though, which I haven't tallied up yet. Not enough of a decisive numerical advantage for a quick breakthrough probably.
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v1.3? Tonnage was off on the initial slide for BTG logistical requirements. Believe its correct now.
1/ Made a more refined take on BTG logistical requirements, now taking into account fuel and ammunition packaging size. If spaced out daily, it still came to about ~14 truckloads + ~3 7,500 L tanker trucks (deleted the 1st thread because Twitter didn't like PowerPoint)
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Just to offer a possible refinement: I believe Popasna is the most critical sector currently, 🇷🇺 is likely funneling reinforcements in. Initial take on logistics a few days ago suggested they may have issues sustaining an offensive here from Luhansk/Starobil's'k railyards
Russia is STILL advancing slowly in the Donbas due to severe logistical issues despite concentrating on a smaller geographic area: senior U.S. defense official
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NATO would defend Lithuania. The posturing that suggests otherwise is raising the threat of miscalculation significantly, particularly if Russian officials are starting to believe it.
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1/ Gone through quite a few materials, now reasonably sure this is a case for 2x 122mm rounds plus charges that was pictured being loaded, apparently at Bronnaya Gara, Belarus several days ago. How I came to this conclusion to follow.
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A Russian BMP was apparently operating with a crew of 3 lieutenants, none of which were from a combat arms branch. Major manpower issues likely occurring if this happened, probably exacerbated by unwillingness to commit conscripts to combat.
They’ve learned from the enemy’s example the dangers of using inexperienced crews in armored assaults. The crew of one Russian BMP was three lieutenants, none from combat arms (one was a metrologist). This is... a non-standard BMP crew.
I have blurred faces, names & birthdates.
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Mostly trucks. Ural-4320 can perhaps carry 30ish people on a good day. Very low confidence estimate: allowing for some of the trucks to be carrying equipment, let's say the trucks average 10-15 passengers each, plus two in the cab. 720 - 1020 personnel total perhaps.
GeoConfirmed.
Mass exodus from Russian military out of the Izyum pocket. Over 60 vehicles were counted. Highly likely from max 2/3 days ago.
Temporary bridge over the river Oskol at 49.16991, 37.43604
GeoLocated by
@Arvelleg1
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The north side of Mykolaiv was a bit harder to make out, it appears as if we have at least 4 BTGs depicted on this side from the 34th and 205th MRBs. District subordinate 227th Artillery and 10th Spetsnaz are to the rear, there's more units to the north I can't make out.
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I'm not sure why this is out there or if it's authentic, but this appears to be an unclassified product from the Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian Brigade depicting a most likely course of action (MLCOA) of a somewhat dubious Belarusian 72 hour advance to Lviv. A couple thoughts
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Multiple T-80Us, BTRs, BMP-2s abandoned (some look to have sustained minor damage) along route T1913. I noted this route a couple of days ago as one of the roads being used to bypass Sumy and Okhtyrka. Looks to be elements of 4th Guards Tank Division.
Трасса Лебедин-Тростянец
Брошенная и уничтоженная техника вс рф
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Update for S Ukraine (as of 1800 UTC today). 58th/20th CAA continued advances, pro-Russian sources claim capture of Izium + Balakliva (disputed by Ukr. sources). Heavy fighting for Gulyaipole over past two days. 42nd GMRD poss. ID'd via Chechen traffic in clear (thx
@AnthonyMVos
)
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The red square IFF markings on Belarusian vehicles are not new, though it is currently getting traction in the media as an indicator. They have been observed since February.
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My take on 1st GTA's axis. Elements 27th GMRB or 1 of 2nd GMRD's MRRs bypassed Sumy day 1 to Nedryhailiv and Romny via Postol'ne. Elements 4th GTD passed through Okhtyrka day 1, Trostyanets day 2-3. ~6 BTGs forward, major logistical issues.
@The_Lookout_N
@Danspiun
@konrad_muzyka
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Let's take this moment to remember Russia has a population over three times that of Ukraine and is losing ground that it took months to gain in a matter of hours.
Even if they're taking casualties at a 10:1 rate, which doesn't seem implausible in Kharkov oblast rn and was also the case during the Kherson offensive, they can deal with that. This approach works. Their mobilized manpower advantage is ridiculous.
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2/ Caveats
- Did not include fuel and water, which are obviously critical. I will look into that upon more study and info.
- Not a logistics expert
- This take is very preliminary and the result of a few hours of research on the topic over the weekend. A lot more work is needed
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Miltary and OSINT Analysis -- The current probability of a Russian winter offensive out of Belarus: Low
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Increasingly critical situation. Manpower problems have not been addressed and fortifications are not complete. If the formations tracked by
@Inkvisiit
are putting the same amount forward, 🇺🇦 is outnumbered 2 or 3 to 1 in this sector. Worse including what the Ru have in reserve.
Russia has made further advances around Ocheretyne, expanding their area of control by 2km to the North West, according to DeepState.
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Update for 30 April done on
Data download:
- Added additional separatist units
- More 🇷🇺 units added to Izium area
- More 🇺🇦 units added from 🇺🇦 official press releases and lat/long reduced to 3 significant figures. No OSINT used.
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Awesome, going through this now. Looks like a Russian officer's map for the situation in Kherson region for 10 March.
Ukrainian Forces defeated a Russian command post and found this map on a Ru Officer. Used OCR [Optical Character Recognition]
#OSINT
#Maps
#Ukraine
#UkraineRussianWar
#OCR
#OpticalCharacterRecognition
#Kherson
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