Grant
@GrantBrooke
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trying to make things a bit better
Nairobi, Kenya/Washington, DC
Joined August 2011
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Happy Birthday week my best friend, partner, and fiancé!
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Until the fastest path to prosperity is no longer public service, nothing will change.
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Start-up idea: any product you buy in the U.S., I'll buy from you at $490 and sell it back to you for $499 with a receipt.
“KRA will not tax everything you are coming with, we only tax goods you purchase which are valued at USD 500 and are more than one.” ~ Mr. David Ontweka, Ag. Deputy Commissioner, Policy & International Affairs
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My one somewhat radical policy belief is that if you steal funds originating from IMF/WB that you should be subject to prosecution by the donor country’s justice system, get the FBI going after global corruption.
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I get why everyone is pissed at the IMF (as have I for 10+ years). But what about local banks who buy GoK bonds at 16%, charge consumers an average savings rate at 3%, and the very savers they charge are the taxpayers who have to pay back those bonds. It’s a crazy poverty trap.
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Remember like 10 years ago when everyone said Somali piracy money was what was driving up real estate costs in Nairobi, when in reality it was the 30% of the GoK budget that goes missing annually combined with the banker’s spread between depositors and t-bills
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People are importing less because they’re poorer, not because they’re exporting more.
The exchange rate is doing its job. Your noise is of no consequence. Your shopping is.
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These financial disclosures don’t go nearly far enough… I can tell anyone where every dollar/KSh I have came from with no shame. People popping up with an extra millie without contracts, receipts, etc is unacceptable.
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Kenya imports record amount of food in 2023… government solution: tax local producers 😀
"the Government will: a) introduce a WHT on agricultural produce which will be a final tax i) at a rate ≤ 5% of the value of the produce delivered to cooperatives or other organized groups; ii) the earnings subject to the WHT shall have a threshold to cushion low-income earners"
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Never miss a chance to create a license… what is registering supposed to do?
In light of the recent disturbing murder incidents in short-term accommodation rentals, including Airbnbs, all operators are required to register with the Tourism Regulatory Authority (TRA) effective immediately.
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Go ahead and build a factory when the government is borrowing at 19%
Because of substituting expensive imports that we can no longer afford with cheaper domestically produced goods. Weak shilling is how you do that Buy Kenya Build Kenya thing you’ve been calling for.
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Yep. Every Askari that was earning 25,000KSh a month in 2019 is earning $147 now instead of $250. That’s a lot poorer in an import heavy economy, and wages have been stagnant on the lower income bands.
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That everyone needs Security guards is a failure of government
Govt sets minimum pay for security guards at Sh30,000 a month
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Hearing millions of people are going to come to Kenya a year to save 20 bucks on a visa 😀
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Claiming a country's default is economic Armageddon is just elites fearing they can't borrow against the masses' future income anymore.
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My giant grief with the IMF is borrowers have been getting 9, 10, 11% euro rates out of Kenya, when we all knew the IMF was effectively guaranteeing a bail-out. IMF didn’t bail out Kenya, they bailed out Eurobond investors.
I get why everyone is pissed at the IMF (as have I for 10+ years). But what about local banks who buy GoK bonds at 16%, charge consumers an average savings rate at 3%, and the very savers they charge are the taxpayers who have to pay back those bonds. It’s a crazy poverty trap.
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Inflation adjusted incomes in Kenya have DECREASED since 2010. Despite all the debt. Debt does not equal development. Sure GDP has increased, but that has been sunk into the hands of the elite and into inflated property values.
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Those who want a default is not because we don't think there will be consequences. We know the consequence will be the credit card getting cut up, and austerity for the political classes' stomachs.
I see people who seem to think debt default is a get out jail card. This is Ghana’s latest statement on its restructuring process. Note prominent role of IMF. Only choice debt distressed countries have is between negotiated IMF programme or one imposed by creditors.
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The last infrastructure bond was at 17%… that would mean for this 70B KSh bond, 62B will be paid in interest. What’s the ROI on a road that’s 40% interest, 30% theft, and 30% actual road?
CBK is issuing a new infrastructure bond seeking of KES 70B:
—On sale until 14th February 2024.
—8.5 year bond maturing on 9 August 2032
—Coupon rate will be market determined.
—Minimum bid amount is KES 50,000
—Bond may be re-opened at a future date
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Over just 24 months, the Kenyan Shilling plummets from 108 KSh to 152 KSh. It's a nosedive, far steeper than its regional counterparts. The average citizen in Nairobi, moved from earning $250 monthly, to now $160.
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Politicians know where their bread is buttered… that’s why they’d rather come down hard on taxpayers than their creditors.
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For decades this has been the most important development project Kenya could do… ridiculous SGR was done before this.
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This isn’t because of Mama Mbogas not paying taxes, it’s because of the top 1%… all the wealth is in the top 1% who expertly dodge.
IMF: "Kenya is the only EAC country that experienced a protracted fall in its tax-to GDP ratio over the last decade"
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Ethiopia has been going to default for the past three weeks, and the Birr hasn’t moved at all really. Don’t believe the default doomsayers.
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I know it's debatable for forex and trade reasons, but Kenya should consider a Constitutional amendment banning government from raising foreign debt outside of some super emergency clause. The temptation isn't worth the cost:
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In 2014 when GOK was celebrating its first Eurobond, there were a bunch of people (
@nderi_j
, myself, etc) saying it's weird to celebrate more government debt.
#Business
:
#Kenya
's debut
#Eurobond
sale sees strong demand -
http://t.co/s3xxMN4V8R
http://t.co/kAMyE4gA1O
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A decade long debt binge, that's still going, and the poor have only gotten poorer, and are now getting shot. Economic madness has to stop.
At least five people have been shot dead, including one medical officer while treating the injured.
Thirty-one people have been injured. 13 have been shot with live bullets, 4 with rubber bullets and 3 people have been hit with launcher canisters. 11 others survived with minor
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No shortage of research subjects
KENYA WINS BID TO HOST THE CENTRE FOR ANTI- CORRUPTION STUDIES AND RESEARCH IN AFRICA
Kenya has been selected to host a key regional anti-corruption body namely the Centre for Anti-Corruption Studies and Research in Africa, to be set up by the African Association of
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@drowssap89
I’m just saying you can’t pirate enough ships to create 30% property value inflation in Nairobi 😀
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Foreign investors are abandoning the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Even stocks with attractive dividends are plummeting. Why? Because holding onto hard dollars yields 20-30% more than investing in the NSE. Leading to a catastrophic decline in government assets, pensions, etc.
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The problem with Safaricom’s Ethiopian play is that they’re a listed company whose stakeholders have become reliant on dividends, a privately held, smart, nimble business would be pouring cash in default or not.
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Just a joke, IMO the best place to avoid taxes is the polling booth
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And now KRA is in overdrive, risking the reversal of years of progress in currency digitization as businesses revert to cash transactions to evade taxes.
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The IMF and World Bank, rather than insisting on rigorous ministry-by-ministry audits a decade ago, have focused on cutting subsidies and generating new revenue. The real culprit, however, is the rampant waste, far outstripping the cost of subsidies.
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Private companies can’t move consumer data onto Microsoft’s global cloud, but government can?
However, the government has picked Microsoft to move e-govt services to on the cloud. This is going to be very interesting to watch. IFYKYK.
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Private companies lose investor confidence at an alarming rate, as their revenue, when converted to dollars, turns a 20% growth into a decline. The retreat of global private equity and venture capital has left tens of thousands jobless.
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@ZeggyNairobi
momentarily painful, but Greece cut their budget deficit to 1<% of GDP, now Greece is growing at 2x the rest of the eurozone, and unemployment is way down
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And the expressway pillars where all the dead plants are
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My long held opinion of the Kenyan tax code (that will never happen because only the wealthy are elected) is that all property above 10mil KSh should be taxed annually at 1.5% it’s 2023 value… this would dramatically lower housing prices and speculation.
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The problem with the Kenyan economy is that askaris are overpaid?
@GrantBrooke
147 dollars is too much for developing country to pay for Askari...make it 50 dollars n see investors rushing in. And protect the poor by making food, healthcare, education n housing cheap.
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The government, cornered by financial constraints, and instructed by the IMF, hikes fees for essential services, which should be fundamental human rights. This leads to political instability and erodes the hard-earned trust in government post the new Constitution.
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Once again, it's easier for the IMF to demand more taxes than for all ministries to pass an audit.
In short, tighten those belts. More taxes are on the way as advised by the IMF.
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The local debt and treasury bills are in a losing race against the dollar. Holding onto a dollar has been more profitable than investing in treasury notes for the past year. The latest infrastructure bond, at a staggering 18% interest, means and project cost 40% more over 7 yrs.
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Meanwhile, the holders of the eurobond are making a killing, reaping junk bond interest rates while effectively enjoying a safety net from the IMF and World Bank. Reminder that their cost of capital in 2014 was around 0.5%. Great for them, sucks for the average Kenyan.
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Rather than cut employees and services, the government continues to borrow, sinking deeper into debt. This creates a vicious cycle of debt and default, a downward spiral with seemingly no escape. Headed towards Ghana.
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Property values, the core assets of many of Kenya's largest banks risk have been systematically overstated as equity values decrease across the board, risking a banking crisis (akin to 2008). Paired with banks inability to move t-bills from a 2+ year vintage (Akin to SVB).
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The thing to remember
@wawiranjiru
, 350,000 kids a day getting meals is way more important than noise from politicians attacking each other. Those kids don’t care about the noise. Keep marching!
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If Biden came out and announced everyone got a day off for tree planting, we’d all assume he lost his mind.
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Safaricom in Kenya is a stagnant business, hamstrung by regulators and investors, that is at peak monopoly status where the only place to go is down. So it has to diversify its revenue streams with either new products, or with expansion plays like Ethiopia.
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My measure for when a start-up is losing its fast mover advantage: when someone suggests the company switch from G-Suite to Microsoft.
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If you buy a new laptop abroad make sure to take it out of its packaging and throw it on the pavement a few times before flying.
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While bad behaviors with cheap money has institutionalized, as bureaucrats lined their pockets, unconcerned with audits or results. Voters haven't really cared, because beyond VAT their taxes haven't been funding government, but now they're feeling it.
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Good question - the biggest impact is the government can’t borrow more! A very good problem to have!
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At such an exorbitant rates, undertaking infrastructure projects seems less like development and more like stepping into a financial quicksand. It's a spiraling rate that only exacerbates the macroeconomic turmoil.
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@DavidNdii
The only ramifications of a default in Kenya is GoK can’t borrow more, has to steal less, cut the debt binge recurrent spending, and balance the budget… a default would be great for the economy, by stopping the debt addiction
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This doesn’t tell the whole story… you have to look at where GDP growth was between 2007-2020. Parking lots in Muthiaga may give a clue.
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Two blocks from my house in DC, has happened 4-5 times in past two months at the exact intersection… I didn’t really care about DC politics, but now clear that we need to throw
@BrianneKNadeau
out of office. Who do I knock door for? Donate to?
DOUBLE SHOOTING w/ AT LEAST 1 CRITICAL--- 14th St at Fairmont St NW DC. One person reported unconscious and one is reported to be a child. No suspect info yet.
#ColumbiaHeightsDC
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Now bonds are higher than the interest rate cap put in place only 4-5 years ago to prevent usury? Who's doing the usury now?
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Since 2014, the government's deficit has been climbing, not due to one-off development costs but due to increased recurring expenses. Cutting these costs now means layoffs and reduced benefits, a political nightmare.
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I believe in a world where everyone can afford a grape.
Explain to tea farmers why their forex earnings should underwrite
#UpperDeckPeopleKe
consumption of imported grapes and oranges?
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If you were to go to the bank and get a loan, and off the top the bank said we'll steal 30%, and then we'll charge you 15% APR. You actually get $0.40 on the $1. Those are the terms Kenyans are currently getting from their government. It's a debt trap.
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And then there are those who say austerity is awful, services will have to be cut? But what has debt brought the bottom 90%? Their incomes have only declined in inflation adjusted terms the past decade.
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@murphymike
He seems reasonable, bipartisan, humble, and likable… it’s like W losing the debates but winning the voters. A week from now the memory will be I like that guy.
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The only assets Tim Walz and his wife have are his retirement savings from being a teacher. They don’t even own a home. That’s what a career of service looks like.
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