Market Analyzer
@GoldTAnalysis
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Focusing on technical analysis, the consumer, and the credit cycle. CFA and CMT. Tweets are only my analysis/opinions/thoughts and NOT investment advice.
Joined August 2012
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$SPX I've noted that this ramp could be B of an expanded flat. B has reached 1.618xA. If C is 1.68xB, that would take the market to the COVID lows OR to the end of 4 of the previous wave. Fits quite nicely. Let's see (and yes, it's still a bubble).
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$SPX $SPY All these EWers throwing out these complex corrective patterns. Sometimes it is best to keep it simple.
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$SPX just a reminder that you don't always need rate hikes to tank a market, an oil price shock will do the job just as well.
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$SPX before everyone gets too excited, look at the pattern that started on Jan. 24th and compare it to what started yesterday. Same thing. This whole move is to shake out the weak hands. I still believe we make a new low in March.
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$SPX Lowest volume since Jan. 12th. Make of this what you will.
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$SPX $SPY I have seen this count recently. Lots of people looking to turn bullish. The issue is, this five wave decline has taken the same length of time as W1 of 1/A. As such, this is likely 1 of 3/C, meaning more downside to come.
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@RyanDetrick
Ryan, the fundamentals don’t support a new bull market. Period. This is just a pipe dream. The bond market and consumer are flashing red. Those two factors matter more than a 13% move in the stock market.
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$SPX no volume today until the last five minutes. I am favouring Scenario 1B. All this action was to clear out the weak hands (again). Low Put/Call ratio. I am adding puts.
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$SPX I feel I need to show this again as a number of people are marking this as the start of a larger W5. I disagree for two reasons: 1) corrective waves can be counted using MA breaks (in this case the 100DMA) and 2) W1=W3 and W5 looks like an ending diagonal.
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Why is my gut telling me the bottom is about to fall out? I don’t get this feeling often.
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This has been a perfect Elliott Wave for $SPX:
- 5 waves w W1 ext
- Fib ratios fit
- W3=W5
- W3&5 are in the channel
Would like to see a move down next week as evidence the bear market may have begun.
@HenrikZeberg
@ThinkTankCharts
@NorthmanTrader
@AdamMancini4
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$SPX $SPY This is the count I I currently favouring: A move down to 3790 to close the gap before a corrective bounce. Turn could occur with CPI Wed.
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3k followers! Wow. Thanks everyone.
I’ve now locked my account so that only followers can see my tweets. Tired on dealing with trolls. I want this to be a community of supportive individuals. Let’s do this.
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This is another reason why I'm not overly convinced about this break in trend.
#Gold
reached a very important level and, if the pattern does mirror, we could see an explosive move up from here.
@GlobalProTrader
@ttmygh
@PopescuCo
@RonStoeferle
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$SPX whether or not today is the top, we can likely expect a 5 wave decline to 4280/4300. W1 or WC. I am watching closely.
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$SPX The action looks to be a W4 triangle as I noted early. W5 is now likely to take us down just below 4000. The probability of the crash scenario has decline substantially. The larger W3 crash is now likely to begin in May.
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@max_gagliardi
This is so wrong. It is consumerism that drives climate change. So although Britain might account for 2%, they indirectly account for much more. Honestly, get your facts right.
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$NDQ taps 50%. $SPX is on Christmas volume. This is the calm before the store.
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@SteveSaretsky
Poor babies. What did they think was going to happen when they bought more house than they needed and leased 2x BMWs? I have no sympathy.
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$SPX $SPY same pattern. Expecting gap down tomorrow, then rebound, then drop, likely forming a divergence. Larger wave 4 (not marked) will either be a flat or triangle. Expect some chop for the next week or so.
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@AynRandPaulRyan
@realDonaldTrump
Agreed. His rural farmer base was crumbling and he caved. Despite all the
#fakenews
popularity numbers he keeps posting, the truth is that this trade war is hurting a lot of people.
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$SPX $SPY Let's start a walk through for 3 of 3. This is what I am expecting for the first wave then bounce to the 501HRMA for ii, likely after US Thanksgiving. Then we should flush similar to Dec. '18 into YE.
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$SPX $SPY What I called two weeks ago vs. how it is playing out. Slight adjusted to WC (purple to blue). And no, I do not have a crystal ball. This is skill and luck. As always, stay vigilant and humble as both skill and luck can turn.
$SPX $SPY How am I doing with this second walk through? A bit short of my target but a D div in place. Expecting WC up next week. Happy May 2-4 to all the Canadians.
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$SPX $SPY I am going to end my walk through here. I expect a divergent high next week. After that, W3 of 3 down. Happy Memorial Day long weekend to my American followers. See you all next week.
#nailedit
$SPX $SPY What I called two weeks ago vs. how it is playing out. Slight adjusted to WC (purple to blue). And no, I do not have a crystal ball. This is skill and luck. As always, stay vigilant and humble as both skill and luck can turn.
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@RE_MarketWatch
Not to be insensitive but why did he think it was a good idea to begin with? I mean, why did he even step foot into the dealership? Regardless, sad.
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@Jedi_ant
Too many bulls still out there. Capitulation doesn’t happen until
@DaveHcontrarian
stops tweeting about a melt up.
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$SPX $SPY Time to update the LT chain. New followers should go through the tweets.
If W3=W1, we should bottom out near 3200, an area of support and resistance in 2020. Good fib fit so far. This is scenario 1 (S1).
$SPX $SPY Orange and Green (updated) w Fib targets. Orange w 2 scenarios: W3=W1,W3=W1x1.618. Note 3700, which I have discussed, falls at important Fib levels. Green is interesting as W3=1.618xW1.
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$SPX $SPY That sucking noise you hear is retail being pulled in.
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$SPX If this is wi of 3, based on length, W3 should be between 2.27x and 2.18x W1. Looking for a bounce Monday.
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$SPX $SPY I am getting that feeling again that we may close green. Bold statement. But it looks like a ABC down. Multiple scenarios still in play. I am still favouring a corrective wave through the summer. I will post charts on the weekend.
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@blakestonks
We have a larger banking crisis and $300T in debt vs $80T in ‘08. This time around you have “investors” running into $nvda at 175x earnings. It’s a tech bubble inside of a debt bubble. Half these “investors” were in diapers in ‘08, so the comparison is lost on them.
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$SPX $SPY Orange scenario. As I noted yesterday, this wave is too short in time and has not retraced a fib level. If the mkt falls from here, be careful of a snap back. Key will be if decline has 3 waves. Neg RSI rev D&W.
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$SPX $SPY Let's do a walk through. First thing: look at the charts below. Predicted days in advance! Fibs structures work! This was my primary scenario.
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@RE_MarketWatch
Another realtor not talking about risk. And she might have a value of $4MM but I bet that is a gross value, not net. And the rest of the video just seems disingenuous - it’s crazy but do what I say and you can be like me.
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$SPX $SPY One chart as we enter a long weekend. If
@CZaharam
is correct (and I am leaning that way), the entirety of W3 (W1x1.236) could take us to 2950. I will update the scenarios on the weekend. Near term I have a couple of ideas. CPI next week.
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$SPX $SPY Scenarios with fib targets.
Purple - iii of 3 of W3 (W3=3xW1)
Green - iii of 5 of W1
Orange - c of B of W2
RSI - reversal on declining volume below 50DMA. We dropped nearly 500 pts over 2 wks the last time. Favours purple/green.
$VIX showing D RSI reversal -> Up
$SPX $SPY Purple (3 of W3) still in play. Two scenarios for Orange (W2), which should take up to 4180-4300: 1) Zig-zag or 2) Expanded flat, both mapped below. I am favouring the expanded flat, which still means a rally through the summer after a new (divergent?) low.
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@SteveSaretsky
@nytimes
Talk about tone deaf. People are mad at HIM. Why? Because he’s ruining the country with his policies, specifically immigration. Many can’t afford to live here anymore. So yeah, people are pissed.
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$SPX $SPY very similar topping pattern, which I have seen multiple times. Lots of data being released tomorrow morning.
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$SPX wiv of C playing out as expected. Target of 4084 before move to 4250 (likely fall short of initial 4300 target…but still possible to close the gap).
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$SPX $SPY I have never seen so many bottom callers in my life. You want to catch a falling knife into QT and poor seasonality, that’s your choice. We will bounce but the risk/return just isn’t there. Be careful out there.
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$SPX $SPY this little rip has now retraced 78.6% and must now fall from here to maintain the primary scenario. If not, it opens up a number of possibilities. Quick note: since the start of the year all wave 5s have been short of target.
$SPX $SPY Updated scenarios for the next couple of weeks. Orange is primary, down to ~3200, to complete 5 of 1 of 3. Otherwise, 2 of 3 has started.
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You asked for it: How to Trade a Corrective Wave.
Two things to keep in mind as we go through: Elliott Wave, generally, has four corrective patterns (we won't cover the "Threes") and, corrective waves will typically end at the previous wave four (more on this in a bit).
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Just a thought before tomorrow: everyone is laser focused on CPI. In a way, rightfully so. However, everyone is missing the forest for the tree. Inflation will come down but it will do so because of demand and wealth destruction. That is not bullish. Consumer squeeze is on.
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$SPX diverges weekly. Another indicator that W5 has ended.
@NorthmanTrader
@HenrikZeberg
@MFHoz
@ThinkTankCharts
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$SPX $SPY 2HR div. Looking like an expanded flat. Could see a rally to 4050 by Friday afternoon. W2 of 1 of 3.
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$SPX Potential path the mkt may take into yr-end. This would be WA of a zig-zag. If the market bottoms at (5) and clears (4), that means 1) we are in a flat and may hit ATH or 2) the bull is still on and we can expect a larger W5. Either way, 3000 is likely the first stop.
$SPX let's keep building on the LT analysis I posted a couple of months ago. Since then we have traced out what looks to be an ending diagonal, with a throwover. To confirm the end of the bull market, we are looking for a 5 wave impulse or a leading diagonal.
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To be clear, this keeps us at the current level (50 up, 50 down). At current yields, debt levels are still a problem and will weigh on growth, especially as cheap debt matures/rolls over the course of the year.
FED SWAPS PRICE IN 50 BPS OF RATE CUTS BY YEAR END FROM JUNE PEAK.
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$SPX $SPY if my purple scenario is correct, today would begin 3 of 3 of 3, which means the crash wave is upon us. Black Monday?
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I am shocked by the num of shills of fintwit charging people money for constantly changing analysis or providing “advice” that is consistently wrong. The best analysts on here aren’t charging a dime. If you are going to pay, at least pay a professional, not these wannabes. $SPX
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@RE_MarketWatch
They took a reasonable step moving into a two bedroom, not living beyond their means. But higher rates tipped those scales. A fixed rate would have done them well. Likely received bad advice.
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$VIX continues to be held below the 50DMA. A coiled spring.
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$SPX $SPY I am not giving this much weight but I want to point out that RSI is now at the same level as the '08 crash. It is following a similar pattern.
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@MichaelMOTTCM
Yeah, discount models. But I’ll trust the bond market over the equity market any day.
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$SPX looks like we are getting the D div after 9DMA bounce but below my 4250 target. This means we may gap up tomorrow following employment but then head south and close red. However, it is Friday…be careful. Not much volume today either.
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Just want to say I have awesome followers. Not sure where I started the year but I am happy to see this account grow. Hopefully everyone has found value in my analysis.
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$SPX $SPY Purple has been my primary scenario but began losing probability on the 23rd after a break of the 1002HRMA. It is still possible provided the recent ramp does not make a new high. This brings me to Green, which was originally proposed in August.
$SPX $SPY Updating the LT analysis. Two options going forward for 3/C. If you are new, I suggest going through the thread.
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@elerianm
How is this strange? They’ve been on a spending rampage for years. Interest expense is skyrocketing. There is pressure on USD as the global reserve currency. Globalization is going backwards. This is completely warranted. They should have done it sooner.
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$SPX $SPY Orange and a new, bullish teal scenario. Next week is important to see if we begin the next wave down of the bear market or rebound into a fifth wave, which would indicate a potential upward move to ATH (which plenty are calling for).
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$SPX $SPY Time again to update the long term charts. W3 is looking to be 1.618xW1 (count on right of left chart in retweeted post). We moved down for 1 of 3 and up for 2. Now we look for 3 of 3, target 2600. Note: this was posted 3 months ago and has played out as expected.
$SPX $SPY Orange and Green (updated) w Fib targets. Orange w 2 scenarios: W3=W1,W3=W1x1.618. Note 3700, which I have discussed, falls at important Fib levels. Green is interesting as W3=1.618xW1.
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$SPX $SPY Purple (3 of W3) still in play. Two scenarios for Orange (W2), which should take up to 4180-4300: 1) Zig-zag or 2) Expanded flat, both mapped below. I am favouring the expanded flat, which still means a rally through the summer after a new (divergent?) low.
$SPX $SPY Scenarios since my last update. Purple is W3 of 3, my base, a crash wave. However, we could be in 5 of 1 (orange>green). Starting to lean this way bc of W div and time it took to get through 4 of 1 plus summer months. Blue is bull case (unlikely w today's action).
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Followers, yes, I have been off my game a bit recently. It doesn’t mean I haven’t been right over 80% of the time with some big time calls. As I said a week ago, no one is perfect. Support each other. Consider each others’ views.
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$SPX $SPY A thread. Price has broken through the 20WMA and 100DMA, which is typical behaviour of corrective waves. Further, price is at long-term support/resistance.
$SPX well, here we are. It is looking like my original thought was correct (pending confirmation). This has all the hallmarks of a W2 bull trap. I will post a chart later today. Confluence of factors indicating we are near (or at) a top.
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$SPX $SPY Tracking perfectly. Should see 3000 by early Jan. if it holds.
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@MFHoz
$SPX has broken below major support. Overnight, it bounced off the 50 DMA. Watching closely for a break below. We are near margin call territory.
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$SPX $SPY there is a possibility this is still 4 of 1. There is a daily RSI reversal just at the 20DMA. Something to monitor if the market begins to fall. Primary is still a B wave down.
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Today has nothing to do with inflation. It has to do with triggering $VIX stops below support. Knowing that, do you still want to be long when the big boys can now buy puts on the cheap?
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$SPX $SPY There is a single bull case. It isn’t employment. It isn’t a pivot. It is only a short squeeze. That’s it. Do you really want to be long trying to time that? It is a possibility but I’ll stick to my process. See everyone in the morning.
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$SPX $SPY as I noted last week, the ‘18 sell-off started on Dec. 3rd. We could see something similar into year-end with tax loss selling.
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$SPX $SPY Possible path over the next few days. C stopped at previous 4th wave before moving up. I am not married to this given that RSI reversal. Again, I will update my longer term charts on the weekend. Drinks first.
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$SPX $SPY 2 of 3 done? We could sell off into YE. Watching movement around the MAs.
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$SPX $SPY A bit of proof that Elliott Wave is a useful tool when used correctly. The left chart was posted a month ago vs. today's chart on the right. I have proven multiple times that it can be very predictive.
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@davevermilion
@MichaelMOTTCM
Same here. Many bears flipped to bulls during that rally. Not many of us were left.
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$SPX $SPY if this is the end of a W2, it has clearly done its job: we are at extreme greed, bears have thrown in the towel or converted to bulls, lots of bear trolling, no protection, no fear, etc. Liquidity is still draining and insiders aren’t buying. Seems obvious to me.
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$SPX $SPY this action is just burning premium. Currently holding above to the 202HRMA. Still triangle potential. My targets have not changed. Patience is key. Looking for that daily divergence.
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$SPX wiii at 1.5xwi. Good fib fit, 5 waves. 2HR div. wiv upcoming unless we break below major support. End of wiv likely marked by RSI reversal near 4300 and 2002HRMA.
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@dana_marlane
I would say 2950 but either way, you and I are the only ones with the W3 call. I don’t think people realize how bad this bear market could get once a $300T debt bubble burst.
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$SPX $SPY Scenarios since my last update. Purple is W3 of 3, my base, a crash wave. However, we could be in 5 of 1 (orange>green). Starting to lean this way bc of W div and time it took to get through 4 of 1 plus summer months. Blue is bull case (unlikely w today's action).
$SPX Potential path the mkt may take into yr-end. This would be WA of a zig-zag. If the market bottoms at (5) and clears (4), that means 1) we are in a flat and may hit ATH or 2) the bull is still on and we can expect a larger W5. Either way, 3000 is likely the first stop.
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$SPX $SPY Updating the LT analysis. Two options going forward for 3/C. If you are new, I suggest going through the thread.
$SPX $SPY Time again to update the long term charts. W3 is looking to be 1.618xW1 (count on right of left chart in retweeted post). We moved down for 1 of 3 and up for 2. Now we look for 3 of 3, target 2600. Note: this was posted 3 months ago and has played out as expected.
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$SPX $SPY looks like W2 is done, as I said (orange). Don’t buy this ramp - it’s a trap.
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$SPX $SPY IF (again, IF) we are starting the crash wave (3 of 3 of 3/C), two potential catalysts are the debt ceiling and Japan. This week will be telling.
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$SPX $SPY definitely looking like an A wave. Primary scenario is B down into OPEX and C up into the Fed.
$SPX $SPY Updated scenarios for the next couple of weeks. Orange is primary, down to ~3200, to complete 5 of 1 of 3. Otherwise, 2 of 3 has started.
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@jeonghoanhoang
@farrisbaba
FED prints -> banks lends -> ends up in a financial asset - > no sellers -> no liquidity. This is why velocity has taken a nosedive. Money is not moving around within the system.
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@SteveSaretsky
They should do it immediately. They’ve already waited to long as it is. An error has been committed.
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Never thought this tweet would get this much attention. Wow.
$SPX $SPY All these EWers throwing out these complex corrective patterns. Sometimes it is best to keep it simple.
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$SPX $SPY these were my three scenarios heading into today.
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$SPX $SPY Continuing the Orange scenario from W2 into W3. Note the rebound to the 20WMA, where corrective waves typically end. W3 could take us to the 2020 low by the beginning of next year.
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$SPX $SPY Holding below 92HRMA but creating a + RSI reversal. Tri pattern still in play. Low volumes. $VIX having none of this. wv of C likely to play out into Fri. The 50DMA is likely no longer resistance, will look to the 100 instead. Still targeting 4250-4300.
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Let me see if I have this correct:
- Japan (carry),
- China property (largest asset class),
- US banks,
- Consumers,
are all in trouble but we are in a bull market? 🤷🏽♂️
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