Capital Flows
@Globalflows
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Global Macro, Rates, FX, and memes (most important) / “You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.”
THE MACRO RESEARCH/TRADES👉🏻
Joined March 2023
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Pinned Tweet
I have written extensive educational primers on every aspect of macro, trading, risk management, and how to generate returns in markets (and life) here:
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Going to do an entire substack article on redundancy planning. This changes how you will view everything 👇🏻🔥
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What everyone will soon learn is that Citi, JPM, GS, and MS are not institutional insiders.
They are the greatest fades and only produce research for marketing and schilling purposes.
I assure you if they had an informational edge, the last thing they are doing is sharing it
JPMorgan and Citi now predict that the Fed will cut rates by
50 bps in September,
50 bps in November,
25 in December....!!
@HeidingOut
@cryptocantoncat
@dannycheng2022
@redfoxryder
@burman_chetan
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I will be publishing an alpha report before market open tomorrow updating views on equities, rates, bitcoin, the dollar and crude.
If this tweet gets 500 likes, I’ll make it free for everyone 🤝
Power Pepe for the culture 🫰🏻
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As promised guys! Book Thread! 🧵
We will go through a couple categories of the books I have found helpful:
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If this tweet gets 250 likes before the close, I’ll make the overnight write up free for everyone 🤝.
Run it 🫡✊🏻
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Bitcoin Breakdown Thread: Macro Liquidity, Bitcoin Positioning, and Current Risk Reward
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If this tweet gets 200 likes then I’ll write a report for EVERYONE on how liquidity is shifting across the risk curve and impacting BTC, meme stocks short squeezes ( $GME , $PTON ) and the metals (gold, silver, copper).
Run it 🫡
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Going to be writing an updated report with how CPI confirms and further clarifies the macro regime for equities and rates (all the reports are in my pinned tweet).
If this tweet gets 300 likes, I’ll make it free for everyone 🤝
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Once this tweet gets 100 likes, I do the next macro research drop 🔥🫡.
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Welcome to global macro
“You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.”
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An updated primer on how to model, analyze and trade rates will be coming this weekend
All the research and trades are published
If this tweet gets 500 likes, I will make the primer free for everyone 🤝
Run it!🫡
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I met with one of the guys who has been like a mentor to me over the years. He helped me through some tough times.
He used to be a lawyer and then a CFO for a major corporation. Now he's "retired" but still uses his time very productively. He is in his 70s so he doesn't care as
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Got long BTC at $61,725 (see pinned tweet)
If this Tweet gets 200 likes, I'll write a whole report on how to build a BTC strategy that incorporates macro liquidity, connection to risk premias and price action signals.
Run it!
See previous trade here:
Went long BTC below 43k. We are now at $71,602
Had multiple short term trades within the trend.
Closing the long. Downside risk exists short term.
The active trading book has no position in BTC right now.
Watch skew on SMH in connection with BTC
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Going to publish a full report on equities this week (link in bio):
- breaking down dispersion of sectors and factors
- Vol
- Skew for the index
- Indexation effect
- and why you need a Pepe in every investment report
If this gets 200 likes, I'll make it free for everyone 🤝
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Inflation and Interest Rates Breakdown: 👇
Main Idea: We are in a period of time when inflation is decelerating and approaching the Fed’s 2% inflation target. However, there are key tensions to monitor with HOW inflation and growth are impacting each other.
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Macro report was published
Alpha report will will be published tomorrow with updates on ES strategy and rate complex.
If this gets 250 likes, I’ll make it free for everyone 🤝
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The books have arrived. 576 volume to be precise 🤌🏻
I wouldn’t be the person I am today without the books I’ve read. I won’t be able to become the person I want to be without these books functioning as the stepping stones.
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If this gets 150 likes, I will publish my CPI analysis for everyone🫡
Trades and outputs from models reserved for subscribers 🤝
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If this Tweet gets 200 likes, I will go for a run with a full-size American flag tomorrow and post a picture 🇺🇸
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Plot twist:
US defaults, risk assets gap down. US politicians monetize the puts they bought, buy the dip and then go raise the debt ceiling. Market rallies.
It would be the greatest market manipulation in history.
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Will be doing a write up on trading CPI and FOMC this week in equities, rates and metals
If this gets 100 likes I’ll make it free for everyone 🤝
Holding long ES through CPI and FOMC
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Let me explain the problem
When you take a ton of suboptimal trades you either bleed P&L or drag on your mental clarity to put on trades. Typically BOTH of these happen.
When you are patient and intentionally don’t act for the purpose of gaining foresight then you increase
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Interest rate primer has been published
Rates are the linnchpin on which the entire financial system turns. This is a full breakdown of the relevent resources, moving parts, and strategy to employ.
Enjoy!
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The market doesn’t trade based on fundamentals. Never has, never will.
It’s 100% about FLOWS
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Interest rate report will be published tomorrow (all the research = link in bio)
If this gets 1,000 likes, I’ll make it free for everyone 🤝
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I keep getting unsolicited advice that I’m not professional enough cause I use Pepe’s and memes
The Pepe’s won’t stop! I’m a man of culture and taste
News flash👇🏻
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The macro regime in growth, inflation, and liquidity continues to be abundantly clear: Goldilocks.
The skew of assets continues to move in confluence with this regime. This thread will break these macro tensions down as they connect to asset prices 👇
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Intraday Trading Papers:
100% about providing execution liquidity
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No recession in 2024
No 50bps cut in Sept
Cope harder anon
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1) Leverage ETFs are absolutely horrible products. They take so much money from the people who trade them.
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This is a full breakdown of how to analyze the drivers of Bitcoin
If this tweet gets 300 likes, I will write a thread on where we are with macro liquidity and how it is driving BTC🤝
Bitcoin Strategy: How to analyze and trade BTC correctly by using macro liquidity and technicals 🤌
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This is either the greatest generational buying opportunity in equities or it’s so over
Anything in between is impossible
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Macro vol is back with this move up in interest rates
I’ll be writing a report breaking down the tensions, RR skew and trades I am running in bonds.
If this tweet gets 100 likes I’ll make it free for everyone 🤝
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A friend of mine (one of the smartest people I know) was asked how he became so successful and knowledgeable in his sphere.
His answer: you sit in the chair and don't get up until the job is done.
I will never forget it
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$BTC risk reward continues to hold
We are skewed to the upside
I will be writing additional research on this in the coming week (link in my bio)
Bitcoin Breakdown Thread: Macro Liquidity, Bitcoin Positioning, and Current Risk Reward
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Pulling together the next 🔥 trade
If this tweet gets 100 likes, I’ll share it for everyone here on Twitter 🫡
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This is still one of the best intros I have ever read on quantifying regimes and building Markov models. Its very simple and a great start for new people. When I built this model out, it was an exceptional learning experience.
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And they tell you they have your back
All the retail brokerage accounts go down conveniently when institutions are at their extreme of forced selling.
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At the request of Twitter, here is how I think about reading, research, and learning.
I never grew up as someone who reads books but I rejected the lie of "I am just not a book guy." I am whatever type of guy I need to be to accomplish my goals.
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Alright let’s talk about this: are we in the greatest bubble of all time ? Is the S&P500 going to be cut in half before the end of the year ?
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If this gets 100 likes then I’ll do it 🤝
@Globalflows
Bro pls drop a stack on how you read all these books and how you retain the info… bet ur stuff is 100x better than YouTube Bs
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Your friends should want to see you win
If they are jealous and tear you down, dump them right away. They aren’t your friend.
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The sun is rising somewhere
Time to pound an espresso and get after it 🫰🏻
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15k followers 🔥
You guys are legit
I can only promise one thing, the alpha sharing won’t stop ✊🏻🤝
Proverbs 3:5–6
Trust in the Lord with all your heart
And do not lean on your own understanding. In all your ways acknowledge Him, And He will make your paths straight.
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My macro framework and market views: 🧵
I had a great conversations
@OnTheMarginPod
with
@fejau_inc
from
@Blockworks_
covering my macro framework and views into the end of the year.
New episode with Capital Flows out now!
@Globalflows
@fejau_inc
We discuss:
- His macro framework
- Fading the VIX surge
- The Fed & interest rates
- Bitcoin price drivers and more!
Links below ↓
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The beliefs and story behind this account:
Foundational Belief: In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed.
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Updated report on equities will be published after the market close
You can Subscribe to all the research here:
If this Tweet gets 250 likes before market close, I will make the full update free for everyone 🤝
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You’re going to see the true nature of a bull market
You think $NVDA has entered a bear market ? That’s cute
You think $QQQ topped ? That’s adorable
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Getting a lecture from my Uber driver about how the dollar is only backed by the Petrodollar 😂
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Meanwhile perma bears brace for a recession in their grandmas basements
Lower East Side, New York City, Saturday evening.
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Must read books for global macro trading:
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“If you think the price of winning is too high, wait until you get the bill from regret” - Tim Grover
I refuse to be anything except exceptional. Keep working hard guys 🤝
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Trust me frens, when my ES strategy triggers the short for the bear market, I will share it.
For now, the strategy remains long and we hold the line 🤝
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People keep asking me about my professional background
I use to be the head janitor at Goldman Sachs. People don’t get how difficult it is to land a position like that
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Macro Report has been dropped 🔥
Like/retweet for me guys 🤝. Run it! 🫡
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How to think about price action 🧵
1) Everything is about capital flows (hence the name!). People are in a constant state of exchanging assets. Cash is an asset. Inflation is simply the devaluation of cash.
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Alright people were asking for closer pictures of the books so here you go 🫡🤝
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Ladies and gentlemen,
Please fasten your seat belts. The memeing will begin shortly
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My relationship with God is the most important thing in my life.
My success thus far (minimal as it is) is completely attributed to God. He can give or take away at any time.
What profit is there to gain the world but lose your soul ?
@Globalflows
I've been noticing how you incorporate strong faith, and
values into your daily routine,
whilst being a successful trader/investor.
I have the utmost respect for this.
Have a great Sunday.
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Notes to self:
Just be approachable. Was talking with someone recently who is just trying to learn about markets and is starting from ground zero. They mentioned how unapproachable and offputting some people can be with their knowledge of markets.
Notes to self:
becoming exceptional comes from hard work, not being intrinsically "gifted".
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Bitcoin trade is onsides
This is how macro flows work
I don't make the rules
Bitcoin long was published. See report for breakdown of the BTC strategy and why we are skewed to the upside in this part of the macro cycle:
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Anon: "There is so much debt, the world is going to end"
SPX debt / total assets
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People don’t get it
You get paid to hold a position and take the volatility
Get on sides, have a rolling stop (or other comparable process) and let the position become larger than anyone could ever imagine
Once you master this, you do it with size and leverage 😈
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Bloomberg telling you Bitcoin is going to 40k and you’re not buying anon?
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Just a quick reminder, no one is forcing you to follow me or listen to me. I know it’s a mind blowing 🤯
For the true frens, we move forward together 🤝. True frens post Pepe’s in the comment section 🫡
Some people might think I'm not very bright and have no clue what I'm talking about
I assure you, it's so much worse than you could even imagine
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