Geoffrey Supran
@GeoffreySupran
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Professor of Environmental Science & Policy and Director of Climate Accountability Lab at University of Miami investigating Big Oil's climate propaganda.
Now: Miami. Home: UK.
Joined June 2014
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NEW: In
@ScienceMagazine
today, our latest peer-reviewed research shows Exxon scientists predicted global warming with shocking skill & accuracy between 1977 & 2003, contradicting the company's decades of climate denial. THREAD.
📰No pay wall for 2 weeks:
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"I, not just as an elected member, but as a 29 year old woman, am thinking not just about what we're going to accomplish in the next two years, but the America we're going to live in for the next 30 years. I don't want to see Miami [&] my own district under water." -
@Ocasio2018
.
@Ocasio2018
kicks off first day of freshmen orientation with a protest
@NancyPelosi
’s office.
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WOW. In new internal docs: Shell admits their net-zero scenario has “nothing to do w/ our business plans" & wishes "bedbugs" upon climate activists; Exxon & Chevron cut commitments to "align advocacy" w/ Paris Agreement; & BP says CCS could “enable full use of fossil fuels". 1/n
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This is massive.
@UN
Secretary General calls for a worldwide ban on fossil fuel advertising.
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"IT'S CRAZY THAT OUR BANKS AND OUR PENSIONS ARE INVESTING IN FOSSIL FUEL, when these are the very things that are jeopardising the future that we are saving for".
That's it. That's the quote.
#ALifeOnOurPlanet
#AttenboroughFilm
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In 1977, Exxon scientist James Black warned executives of the "effect of CO2 on an interglacial scale." His knowledge of historical global temps & prediction of a "carbon dioxide induced 'super-interglacial'" (in black) was remarkably consistent w/ today's best models (red). 1/n
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NEW: Our latest peer-reviewed research, out today, shows that ExxonMobil uses Big Tobacco's propaganda tactics to blame individuals for the climate change it has caused. THREAD.
📰 No pay wall:
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Seriously
@nytimes
? You're letting ExxonMobil take out ads in my and
@NaomiOreskes
's
@nytimes
op-ed about how ExxonMobil misled the public by taking out ads on the op-ed page of
@nytimes
?? Really??! 🤯
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Historic: Coroner issues landmark ruling that air pollution (due to fossil fuel burning) was a causal factor in the death of 9-year-old Londoner Ella Kissi-Debrah. Vindication, finally, for her mother’s years of tireless campaigning for truth and justice.
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"The
@GretaThunberg
Effect" is now an empirically demonstrated, peer-reviewed phenomenon:
"We find that those who are more familiar with Greta Thunberg have higher intentions of taking collective actions to reduce global warming."
Open access:
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Pretty surreal to see our new study, which reveals Exxon's shockingly accurate global warming predictions, on the front page of BBC, NPR, The Guardian, etc. 🙃
Thank you to all the journalists covering our work.🙏
#ExxonKnew
@NaomiOreskes
@rahmstorf
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I just testified as an expert witness to EU Parliament about ExxonMobil's decades of climate denial + delay. Between being the first major hearing of its kind, a leaked Exxon memo, & the rising prospect of Exxon being banned from EU lobbying, it was an interesting day. THREAD
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Exxon challenged us to "read all the documents". We did. Here's what we found using peer-reviewed content analysis:
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Big Oil's new "potentially game-ending" strategy to kill climate lawsuits is to argue it had "no duty to warn" because climate science was "'open and obvious' for decades.”
Sadly, I &
@NaomiOreskes
predicted this defence in our 2021 analysis of ExxonMobil's climate rhetoric. 1/n
Here is fossil fuel companies' new defense in lawsuits accusing them of deceiving the public about climate change:
They perpetrated no deception, they say, because the "alleged impact of fossil fuel use on the global climate has been ‘open and obvious’ for decades."
1/n
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Interesting how
@GretaThunberg
's UN speech has become the "how dare you" speech rather than the "fairytales of eternal economic growth" speech. Because the latter is the true elephant in the room, cutting to the core of the climate crisis à la
@NaomiAKlein
,
@KateRaworth
et al.
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🥳Some news!🥳 I am thrilled share that I have just joined the University of Miami as a tenured Associate Professor of Environmental Science & Policy!
My new group, the Climate Accountability Lab, will investigate climate disinformation & propaganda by fossil fuel interests. 1/n
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Wow. ALL Big Oil CEOs refuse to pledge to Congress to "no longer spend any money directly or indirectly to oppose efforts to reduce emissions and address climate change".
What happened to being "committed to being part of the solution"? (Exxon CEO, 10 mins ago)
#SlipperySix
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ExxonMobil just attacked our 2017 research study, in which I and
@NaomiOreskes
showed they misled the public about climate change.
Here's our peer-reviewed response: .
THREAD.
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NEW: In
@nature
today, my colleagues and I make the case that ending fossil fuel subsidies matters greatly, “in ways both material and political.” THREAD.
📰No pay wall:
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Less than a decade after World War II, the fossil fuel industry was studying CO2 pollution. Within a few years, it knew its products threatened global warming. Its response? To turn around & orchestrate an anti-science, anti-policy denial campaign dwarfing even Big Tobacco's. 1/n
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2/n: Kudos to
@RepRoKhanna
,
@RepMaloney
, &
@OversightDems
for their Congressional investigation forcing Big Oil to turn over these explosive new documents, all of which can be read here:
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WOW. The Hague district court ORDERS Shell to cut greenhouse emissions (*not just emissions intensity*) of its operations *and products* in line with Paris Agreement. Global human rights standards judged to impose an "individual responsibility" on Big Oil.
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DAMN. Smoking gun documents uncovered by US Congressional investigation expose the oil and gas industry’s secret strategy to weaponize their climate pledges to “further secure the industry’s license to operate." 1/n
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BREAKING: Massachusetts sues Exxon for misleading shareholders & public on climate change.
Between NY lawsuit, Congressional hearings, & now this, this is one of most pivotal weeks in history of global warming politics, & one of Exxon’s worst.
#ExxonKnew
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Last week, hours before CA sued Exxon for its decades of climate deception, the
@WSJ
released explosive new documents further exposing Exxon's history of deceit.
IMHO they tell a slightly different, even more damning story than the one being reported. 1/n
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17/n: We now have airtight, statistically rigorous evidence that Exxon accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists.
In that sense, this graph doesn't just communicate a crisis, it confirms complicity.
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"We learned last week that certain fossil fuel producers were fully aware in the '70s that their core product was baking our planet...Some in Big Oil peddled the big lie."
UN Secretary General
@antonioguterres
cites our new study at
@Davos
@wef
#wef23
. 1/n
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Shell's CEO refuses to answer under oath, "Yes or No", whether climate change is "an existential threat".
#SlipperySix
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This is (apparently) really happening folks. For the first time in history, CEOs of Big Oil will testify to US Congress about their multi-decade disinformation campaign to mislead the public about the climate crisis. H/t
@maxinejoselow
for the scoop. 1/n
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Holy sh!t, America's first ever constitutional climate trial has just been WON by Montana youth. This is the first US court to find a government guilty of violating citizens' rights to a healthy environment, joining courts in Germany, Netherlands, Colombia.
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Oh là là. BIG new study:
1⃣French oil giant Total knew its products could cause catastrophic global warming in 1971.
#TotalKnew
2⃣Exxon briefed oil co's on climate sci & coordinated denial campaigns in '80-90s.
3⃣Total killed EU climate regs in '92-94.
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Breaking/Insane: At the behest of the American Petroleum Institute,
@EPA
is *suspending enforcement of all environmental laws* amid
#coronavirus
.
They do "not even reserve EPA's right to act in the event of an imminent threat to public health."
#COVID2019
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2/n: This is the first ever systematic assessment of an oil and gas company's climate projections. It's published by me, climate scientist
@rahmstorf
(
@PIK_Climate
), and historian of science
@NaomiOreskes
.
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First-of-its-kind national survey shows "eco-anger is uniquely associated with greater engagement in both personal and collective pro-climate behaviours" (+ "better mental health").
This is why exposing Big Oil's history of reckless climate endangerment matters so damn much. 1/n
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BREAKING & HUGE:
@Georgetown
University to divest entire $1.7 billion endowment from all fossil fuels, hours after
@NYCMayor
announces New York City to ban all new fossil fuel infrastructure. Big Oil’s social pillars of support are crumbling.
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"This is Big Oil’s PR sizzle reel". For my first feature piece in The
@Guardian
, I reviewed hundreds of fossil fuel ads that have delayed climate action over the past four decades, and whittled them down to a dozen doozies. 1/n
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3/n: We began by collecting every available global warming prediction reported by Exxon scientists in internal memos & peer-reviewed papers. This yielded 16 temperature projections from 1977-2003 in 12 graphs, shown here with subsequent *observed* temp changes overlaid in red.
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Of the 93 House co-sponsors of the
#GreenNewDeal
who ran for reelection, 91 won.
Great reporting by
@blkahn
on how, as
@AOC
put it, "progressive policies do not hurt candidates."
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5/n: Next, we digitized all 16 global warming projections reported by Exxon scientists, and plotted them on one graph:
Gray = Exxon's predictions
Red = Observed temperature change
This, in a single image, is what
#ExxonKnew
.
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4/n: For example, this is a graph from a "proprietary" 1982 Exxon memo showing “an estimate of the average global temp increase” from 1960-2080 due to future fossil fuel burning. Overlaid are:
Blue = Observed CO2
Red = Observed temp change
Immediately, the overlap is striking.
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Game-changing new study by Marco Grasso &
@rickheede
calculates that top 21 oil & gas firms owe $209B+ per year to pay for their climate damages & denial. That's equivalent to a Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement EVERY YEAR for the next 25 years. 1/n
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WOW: Major sting operation & leaked documents expose massive corruption of COP28 president, who secretly used UN climate talks to push oil & gas deals with foreign governments.
Bravo to
@ClimateReport_
in collaboration with
@BBCJustinR
&
@Channel4News
.
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Harvard just quietly announced that it is, in all but name, divesting from fossil fuels. The temerity to reject scientific, economic, political, legal, & moral arguments of faculty & students for a decade, then reverse course & feign leadership, is breathtaking but unsurprising.
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This is the first time any court anywhere has ORDERED a fossil fuel company to end business-as-usual operations to comply with global climate goals & human rights standards. It won't be the last.
As
@milieudefensie
's lawyer Roger Cox put it, "This is a turning point in history."
WOW. The Hague district court ORDERS Shell to cut greenhouse emissions (*not just emissions intensity*) of its operations *and products* in line with Paris Agreement. Global human rights standards judged to impose an "individual responsibility" on Big Oil.
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In 1966, Shell asked scientist James Lovelock "to consider the possible global consequences of air pollution from...the ever-increasing rate of combustion of fossil fuels."
It's an early example of how Big Oil studied climate, colonised academia, & invented climate denial 1/n
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Damning history lesson
@SenWhitehouse
:"Exxon scientists almost perfectly predicted in 1982 how fossil fuel burning would warm the world. What did management do? They set out on a campaign to sow false doubt. They knew it would cause 'great irreversible harm'. They did it anyway."
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12/n: We also show that Exxon scientists:
1⃣ Correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age.
2⃣ Accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detectable.
3⃣ Reasonably estimated the ‘carbon budget’ for holding warming below 2°C.
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16/n: In sum, our study is
#ExxonKnew2point0
. It puts a number on, and paints a picture of, what
#ExxonKnew
, which is that burning fossil fuels would heat the planet by 0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade.
A picture tells a thousand words, and this one sums up how Exxon knew and misled.
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6/n: Our analysis also allows us, for the first time, to put a number on what
#ExxonKnew
: that burning coal, oil, and gas was going to heat the planet by 0.20° ± 0.04°C every decade.
And they were right on the money...
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For my entire lifetime, oil & gas companies have engaged in PR campaigns to "manufacture doubt & downplay the threats of climate change." For twice that long, they've known their fossil fuel products were producing CO2 with potentially "catastrophic" climate consequences. 1/n
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13/n: In public, however, ExxonMobil contradicted each of these conclusions.
Here's ExxonMobil repeatedly exaggerating the uncertainties of climate science and modelling.
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BREAKING: Massachusetts Attorney General is poised to sue ExxonMobil for allegedly deceiving consumers about global warming, joining New York in escalating from investigation to lawsuit. 1/n
#ExxonKnew
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Today’s 500,000-strong
#ClimateStrike
march in Montreal is the single largest climate demonstration in history, and just part of the largest global fight humanity has ever put up against fossil fuels and for a just and stable future.
#FridaysForFuture
It’s official. 500,000 people came out into the streets of Montreal today to join the Global
#ClimateStrike
They’re part of the 6.6 million who took part all over the world. The momentum is on our side and we are not going anywhere.
#FridaysForFuture
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Say it with me (well,
@GeorgeMonbiot
): "We have the tech required to replace fossil fuels. There’s plenty of money. The only thing that stands in the way is the power of legacy industries & the ppl who profit from them. This is what needs to be overthrown."
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6/n: It is dichotomies like these, & ExxonMobil's weaponization of its early climate knowledge to promote doubt, that led me &
@NaomiOreskes
to conclude that ExxonMobil knowingly & systematically misled the public about climate change and its implications:
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Contrary to Big Oil's climate change propaganda of individualized responsibility, the International Energy Agency's blockbuster 'Net Zero by 2050' report envisions less than 5% of emissions reductions coming from "behaviour changes". 1/n
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“It’s the epitome of greenwashing — act dirty, talk green” - I talk to
@RollingStone
's
@GeoffDembicki
about Chevron's mind-boggling 65 TV ads PER DAY over the past 15 months:
🌏80% of Chevron's ads talk green
🔥99.8% of their spending is dirty
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8/n: Exxon's global warming projections were also CONSISTENT with, and AT LEAST AS SKILLFUL as, those of independent academic and government models. Here are the stats...
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NEW: ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, Equinor and BP caught lobbying UK government, who will host upcoming UN
#COP26
climate talks, for "greater recognition of the role of [natural] gas" so Big Oil is "seen as a vital part of the solution".
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Thrilled and honoured to see my &
@NaomiOreskes
' new study on ExxonMobil's climate propaganda covered in
@RollingStone
by the brilliant
@amywestervelt
, who, true to form, pulls no punches and leaves no stone unturned. A perfect Friday evening read.
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@RollieWilliams
We need step-by-step instructions! What are the vertical poles holding the cups? And what do we do if we don't have pool balls?
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Ever seen scientists protest? You have now. Big crowds outside
#AGU16
, urging Trump to
#StandUpForScience
.
@billmckibben
@350
@Agent350
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15/n: And here's Mobil and ExxonMobil cultivating the myth that in the 1970s, there was a scientific consensus that the planet was going to cool down rather than heat up.
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Damning new leaked docs & whistleblowers show McKinsey is "best understood as possibly the most powerful oil & gas consulting firm on the planet posturing as a sustainability firm, advising polluting clients on any opportunity to preserve the status quo."
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14/n: ExxonMobil has also often denigrated climate models.
In 1999, CEO Lee Raymond said future climate “projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, sheer speculation.”
In 2013, CEO Rex Tillerson called climate models "not competent."
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7/n: Using established IPCC statistical techniques to test the performance of Exxon’s temperature predictions in comparison to historical observations, we find that most of Exxon’s global warming forecasts were accurate (63-83%, depending on the metric used).
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10/n: SKILLFUL:
Global warming projections modeled by Exxon scientists had an average ‘skill score’ of 72 ± 6%, with the highest scoring 99%.
For comparison, NASA scientist Dr. James Hansen’s predictions presented to US Congress in 1988 had skill scores of 38 to 66%.
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"Big Oil is the new Big Tobacco" - Thanks to
@BBCWorld
's
@KarinBBC
for having me on today to unpack the oil and gas industry's decades of climate deception and today's Congressional showdown with the
#SlipperySix
CEOs.
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Our new study today "underscores the stark hypocrisy of ExxonMobil leadership, [whose] scientists were doing high quality [climate] modelling work...while telling the rest of us that climate models were bunk" -
@NaomiOreskes
to
@BBCNews
'
@GeorginaRannard
:
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Exxon "knew all they needed to know [about global warming] more than a decade before I was even born, only to then spend almost my entire lifetime attacking that very climate science."
Thanks to
@CNNi
's
@EleniGiokos
for having me on today to discuss our new
#ExxonKnew
study. 🙏
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9/n: CONSISTENT:
Exxon’s average projected warming (0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade) was, within uncertainty, the SAME as that of independent models (0.19° ± 0.03°C per decade).
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This Thursday, I will testify as an expert witness to EU Parliament about ExxonMobil's history of denial and delay on climate change.
@AlexCKaufman
@HuffPost
has the skinny:
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2/n: In
@SPIEGELONLINE
today,
@rahmstorf
discusses Exxon's early understanding of paleoclimate and its significance to ongoing climate litigation:
#ExxonKnew
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4/n: Compare Exxon's early, detailed knowledge of climate science above against this pamphlet they published *21 years* later, which conveniently omits their projected CO2-induced "super-interglacial" and instead promotes "debate about climate change" by arguing "it isn't new".
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This is a masterclass live TV news interview about California wildfires by
@leahstokes
, synthesising climate science, policy, economics, media studies, and about eight other things into flawless accessible prose. Bravo!
Mainstream media outlets report extensively on California wildfires, but few make the connection to the climate crisis, says
@leahstokes
of
@ucsantabarbara
. The media isn't telling "deeper stories" about the role of climate change, she says. "Instead, it's a focus on the fire."
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Joe Biden says "There's not a single solitary scientist that thinks [the
#GND
] can work."
In a letter today to
@BernieSanders
, I - & 56 other scientists - disagree. Scholarship is clear: we have most tech, what we lack most is political will. Mr Biden's comment embodies that.
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ExxonMobil CEO under oath to Congress: "ExxonMobil is committed to being part of the solution" to the climate crisis.
Also ExxonMobil: We've spent 0.16% of our budget this year on low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture used to enhance our oil recovery.
1/n
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OUT NOW:
#AmericaMisled
, a new report from colleagues & I synthesizing a decade+ of research showing how the fossil fuel industry deliberately denied Americans their right to be accurately informed about climate change, & how to fight back. THREAD
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Apparently
@andersoncooper
#ClimateTownHall
just cited my &
@NaomiOreskes
's peer-reviewed study showing how
#ExxonKnew
about the global warming dangers of its products decades ago, then turned around & orchestrated a massive disinformation campaign to mislead the public. THREAD.
This is a dream: Anderson Cooper is explaining the
#ExxonKnew
campaign on CNN and citing the work of
@NaomiOreskes
and
@GeoffreySupran
. Incredible!
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Proud to be 1 of 500 scholars today "calling on UK & US unis to ban fossil fuel funding of climate change & energy policy research". Hopefully this shines a spotlight on what
@BenFranta
& I in 2017 termed Big Oil's "invisible colonization of academia". 1/n
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106
354
Big Oil CEOs unanimously refuse to pledge to Congress to "no longer spend any money directly or indirectly to oppose efforts to reduce emissions and address climate change".
What happened to being "committed to being part of the solution"? (Exxon CEO, 10 mins prior)
#SlipperySix
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It's Greenwashing-101: Spend hundreds of millions of dollars marketing the sh!t out of an unproven techno-fix as a "low-emission" fuel to green your public image for a decade-plus, then quietly drop the project without ever having cut carbon at all. 1/n
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11/n: (⬆️ When we account for differences between forecast and observed atmospheric CO2 levels, the ‘skill score’ of projections modeled by Exxon scientists was 75 ± 5%, with seven projections scoring 85%+. Hansen’s 1988 projections had corresponding skill scores of 28 to 81%.)
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BREAKING: 150+
@Yale
&
@Harvard
students, faculty & alumni disrupt
#HarvardYale
game to demand unis
#divest
their $71B endowment from fossil fuels. I speak to
@guardian
about how Big Oil's "invisible colonization of academia" is undermining climate action:
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Wow, my alma mater
@Cambridge_Uni
will be the first university in the world to hold a democratic vote on whether to stop accepting money from fossil fuel companies for research, confronting what
@BenFranta
and I term Big Oil's colonisation of academia. 1/n
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I'm proud to be one of 200+ scientists today calling on The American Museum of Natural History -- a global bastion of science & truth -- to cut ties with billionaire climate-denial funder &
@AMNH
board member Rebekah Mercer:
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As Trump dismantles EPA, China uses less coal for 3rd year running, installs more solar in 1 yr than in US history.
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Paris, New York City, Boston, DC,...city halls & iconic buildings go green in solidarity with
#ParisAgreement
.
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WOW. Activist confronts Shell CEO at
#TEDcountdown
:
“Shell has spent millions covering up warnings from climate scientists, bribing politicians, & even paying soldiers to kill Nigerian activists...All while rebranding to make it look as though they care."
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WOW: US Supreme Court rules unanimously in favor of youths suing the government for failures to address climate change, observing that “the breadth of [the youth’s] claims is striking”. The trial begins Oct 29. Press release
@youthvgov
:
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Wow wow wow. Cambridge Uni to divest its £3.5b endowment from *all* fossil fuels & reinvest in renewable energy. My alma mater *finally* "puts its money where its brains are", as
@billmckibben
puts it, yielding to years of tireless student organising. 1/n
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🚨Climate Accountability Lab at University of Miami is hiring!🚨 Pls share widely!📢
Researchers at all levels (undergrad, grad, postdoc, senior scientist, consultant) interested in investigating climate disinformation & propaganda, pls reach out! Postdoc job listings below. 1/n
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9/n: "What he did not know at the time, since this detail was only understood since the beginning of the 2000s: the increased levels of CO2 in the air will continue for tens of thousands of years, and not decline within a few millennia of the end of emissions."
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