Darren Frye
@Frye_WSS
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Husband 42 yrs, 3 ch, 12 gch, Christ follower. Ag Biz for 42 yrs, Markets for 42 yrs, CBOT Mem. Futures/options trading has significant risk of loss.
Peoria, IL
Joined August 2019
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📣Public service announcement:
I have strong opinions and I am decisive.
I risk being wrong to be right.
Contrary to what you may have heard, I don't mind people disagreeing with me. I just ask that they be respectful and professional. I block those who are not!
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This guy sounds like he knows what is going on! Wow!
@MisterCommodity
More COVID facts the CDC & Biden Administration doesn't want you to hear.
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Young plants have small root systems transitioning from the radical root to nodal roots. During this time the plant is under mild stress and needs moisture. People who say we have no weather risk are not trained in plant physiology. The forecast is negative in the upper US.
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Wow - no way will we stay above 170 as a nation the way IL and IA are coming in. The crop is on its way to the grave and limping in at that!
#oatt
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Yields in OH, IN and IL have been even to 40% below LY on C and 10-50% below on S. The first 15 yields received out of NE are running 5-15% below LY on C and 10-15% below LY on S. This is supposed to be the garden spot. It is early but these yields are shockingly low.
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As more people get in the fields,
#corn
yields could be closer to 170 than 175. A yield of 170 - 172.5 seems reasonable at this point / a couple random samples from Northern IL shows the same - great from the road and less than great when you pick 4 ears!
#oatt
#harvest23
@agronomistryan1
@HMRamsey11
@BenRand10
@Frye_WSS
Seeing disappointingly average stuff in central nebraska as well. Hall, Howard, Sherman. Tip back and pollinating issues will shock some farmers who aren’t paying attention here. Looks great from the road.
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Commodities go up and they go down, people make money and lose money but what matters in the end is where you will spend eternity! My path or God’s path have very different consequences! We all need to choose!
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After 2 yrs. of high farm income we will see margin compression. I was the most OUTSPOKEN BULL on Twitter ‘20-‘22 but now I am the biggest bear! Don’t be complacent thinking prices will stay here. Plan for tight margins. Think of it as digging a well before you are thirsty!
#oatt
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Oh boy……
💥 🚨 ARGENTINA 🇦🇷 Soybeans. Exports of soybean oil & soybean meal suspended? ⛔️
In other words banned?
@MariscottiJavi
@FreddyGrain
@PHDChicago
@ArgentinaMFA
@IGTCglobal
@ACOMRB
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Agree - many people comparing this situation to US crop where there was much stress but we ended up with great crops.
If you haven’t been to Brazil and walked crops you don’t understand the soil differences. In addition the heat has been oppressive!
Overnight the Euro
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The more I see the more I feel like something is really wrong. These type of ears are in about every state. In good years you have to look and look to find some of these bad ears.
#oatt
#corn
@ArlanFF101
@snodgrss
@Met_khinz
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#Corn
has started the final move higher of big wave 3. I am looking up to 6.21 and maybe as high as 6.69 1/2 on this leg. After which I would expect a 3-5 week break!
#oatt
#Elliottwave
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5 things to remember when battling big challenges in life!
1) Pray!
2) Remember past victories in the Lord!
3) List God’s promises!
4) Spiral up vs. spiral down!
5) Go to battle - trust and act as God directs!
I hope everyone has a blessed week! 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
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AgTwitter - this is a tough call for tonight, but here goes! 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
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No bumper crop this year! Expect more decline in subsequent
#USDA
reports!
Some of the yield models people use need an overhaul! 180-185 right before the report! Haha!
#oatt
#drought21
#plant21
#Agwx
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#Argentina
wheat crop in decline and delay of
#corn
planting will continue to tighten world balance sheets.
#oatt
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The top is off this crop - final yields have a 50/50 shot IMO of being sub 170 and 48. Big yield losses are mounting. East is falling with dryness and disease. East will not make up for West, not even close! Seasonal lows are forming.
#oatt
#drought21
#corn
#soybeans
#plant21
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#Soybeans
to the moon! Big names think 50+, no understanding at all about agronomy! USDA has a chance to change their view and most people wait for direction! Get long now!
#iamnotbearish
👇👇 in calls! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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#Meal
has people caught short and continues to defy those picking tops!
#Soybeanoil
is turning for higher and the weather will further support
#soybeans
. Meal up $106 in 26 sessions 🤣🤣! Beans up $1.25 in 25 sessions with 165 MMT crop forecast by USDA and CONAB 🤦♂️🤦♂️!! Every
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The losses will be huge in the northern plains and upper MW when this is all realized. USDA punted yesterday and they will not be able to do so in Nov. Nov of 1993 they dropped yield 7 bushels, this year could be more like 10.
USDA on Monday- Only 22% of North Dakota corn is mature.
North Dakota- HAHA Let it snow 30+ inches and reach below freezing temps across the entire state!
USDA on Thursday- We are going raise the North Dakota corn yield projection by 1 BPA
Farmers:
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Aborted flowers and pods showing up in many fields.
#soybeans
#oatt
#iamnotbearish
#iamnotshort
#iambullish
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We need to be sure before dying. If you died today, what would you say to God when He asks you why He should let you into Heaven?? I am a good person, doing more right than wrong. I never killed anyone. I gave money to the church and fed the poor. All good but....is it enough?
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Wow - this will finish off the crop if this happens. 32 normally isn’t cold enough but with the wind, it will remove the heat out of the canopy allowing 32 to be cold enough. 500+ million of corn to be lost.
Using a blend of models here are the low temp forecasts for Fri/Sat/Sun night this week.
#AGwx
#Harvest19
#natgas
📉
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Tomorrow is here and it is a big day and it feels different! I can hear the bull snorting and pawing. Energy prices🚀🚀🚀! Crop finishing like 💩💩! Winter is coming, bears are headed for a good resting place. I am looking up to 575 - 625 and 1500-1600! End users will begin
Tomorrow is a big day for grains.
Feel like I've been saying that for 2 weeks now.
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Whether you are long or short, bullish or bearish, or have been wrong or right, this is a worthy saying!
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so!”
Mark Twain
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More yields have come in and C is averaging 13% less and S are 17% less than LY. After reviewing historical data, weekly progress reports and current yields my guess is 163.8 C / 45.2 S for next Thursday. While this isn’t a final yield it is a reasonable decline given the data.
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Ohio has a good crop and 1/2 of IN - IL and points west forget it! Read 👇👇👇small kernels and poor TW for
#corn
will be the theme all fall.
#Soybeans
are even worse. I think my handle was way to optimistic so I have changed it to 165/46.
#oatt
What’s the possibility the popular “there’s no grain demand” narrative gets exposed as “we really wanted your grain, but we were waiting for your 2.2 bil corn carryout to manifest so we could buy it cheap?”
100º F, 20 mph wind, -17” rain for the year, 3 week short grain fill
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Boy oh boy - my 11 year old grandson was smiling ear to ear! His high game at 231!
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China is facing food shortages and does not want the world to know about it. A few major weather problems over the next 18 months in key production areas of the world and we have scary times ahead. Watch what China does not what they say!
#oatt
#China
#plant21
#drought21
#AGwx
🇨🇳 “China is suppressing information about grain shortages to keep world prices down” say analysts
via
@ABC
News 🇦🇺
Cofeed analysts missing, suspected arrested?
@JCIChina
@TEMarkets
@WheatWatcher
@CrundallNick
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My
#CBOT
opening calls:
Corn - 8-12 higher
Soybeans 15-20 higher
Soy Meal - $4-6.00 higher
Soy Oil - 25-50 higher
Wheat - 6-9 higher
#oatt
#AGwx
#plant21
#corn
#soybeans
#wheat
#soybeanoil
#soybeanmeal
#Elliottwave
#drought
#iamnotbearish
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Looking at damage from
#derecho2020
- lots of fields with some damage but way more flat that I would have thought. More green snap also.
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It is Sunday! A discussion about Jesus should never be an argument but an invitation. All are invited but very few accept! I pray for all of our eyes to be opened.
“For God so loved the world, that he gave his only Son, that whoever believes in him should not perish but
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The gap up trade tonight would be classified as a break away gap. An immediate reversal would negate it but further strength would confirm that the corrective wave is over and we will head higher. First
#soybean
target at 1571 1/2 and
#corn
at 613 3/4!
#AGwx
#drought21
#plant21
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It is always good to remember that our strength comes from the Lord and he gives grace to the humble!
“Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.”
Proverbs 16:18 NIV
“Humble yourselves before the Lord, and he will lift you up.”
James 4:10 NIV
Blessings!
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BULL markets - buy dips. This break is very allowable but people have some F.E.A.R. (False Evidence Appearing Real). Hard to buy now! Smart money seizes the opportunity. Don’t wait until we are at the highs again to add! All of this is just my opinion!! Not a trade rec!
#oatt
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The new 6-10 and 8-14 didn’t offer much change for the 2023 crop. The yield loss associated with the last month of finishing will end up being more than the trade thinks. Seed size and TW will send yields lower.
#corn
#soybeans
#oatt
#iamnotbearish
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The market has seen a large rally because of rains being delayed into MN, IA, and IL. El Nino is here but we are not seeing the results because of a ridge over the Hudson Bay along with the - AAM. Overnight we have seen some positive changes. I would expect the market to be
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8 bags per hectare equates to about 7-7.25 bushels per US acre. Normal would be 40-45 in this area.
#oatt
#soybeans
#Brazil
#AGwx
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Time to say, “Houston we have a problem!” Also you could say Uffda!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
@agturbobrazil
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Man, I hope those that wanted a rally to sell are selling something on this rally. Great opportunity with probabilities growing for weather pattern change. Demand isn’t good and will get worse with Brazil starting to harvest. Scary times to sell but it is a nice rally.
#oatt
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Crop in MN and IA to shrink more over next 10 days. Reports are flooding in of
#soybeans
melting down in fields. Pod abortion, leaves dropping, and plants completely dying on lighter soils.
#oatt
#drought21
#AGwx
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Did
#corn
bottom? A couple reliable reversal patterns were in play yesterday!
#oatt
#commodities
#plant24
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Is this a shock to anyone? Massive sell off from Biden administration talking down RFS and RIN values, coupled with FED comments, then China saying yesterday they got commodity prices under control. Right! Slight of hand gets people every time!
#oatt
#China
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#Wheat
and
#corn
planting are way behind in ND and it is June 1st. Soaked from weekend rains there will be more PP than I thought a couple weeks ago.
#notenoughtime
#oatt
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Don’t focus on the low rain totals for some areas of country. Focus on demand, focus on how weather is changing. Upper level flow is changing drastically. Charts are pointed down.
#corn
#soybeans
#wheat
#oatt
#Elliottwave
#charts
#candlesticks
@randywedo57
Maybe and maybe not, hard to hurt corn in this stage and this stress is good for beans. Yield is one component and demand is the other. A yield of > 175 we continue lower to 425-450. A yield of 180 will produce 375-400. We just had the weather rally in my opinion - sell!
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Is
#wheat
a buy or a sell? Nobody knows for sure but my hunch is a dead cat bounce for now.
#Elliottwave
#charts
#oatt
#recession
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