Finch 🐦
@Finch_in_flight
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If the price wants to go up I desire to believe that the price wants to go up If the price wants to go down I desire to believe that the price wants to go down
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Top 20 crypto accounts ranked by the quality of their followers
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So GCR posted a screenshot of his long ETH and SOL positions in the context of the echo bubble he is expecting in 2023, but then exited his SOL position very next day on the rally which was initiated by his tweet.
I'll just say be careful who you copy trade
ht
@TradingJournal0
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Here are my notes from .
@thiccyth0t
's interview with .
@JoshuaDeuk
, conducted in early March.
It provides some valuable insights.
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Top 10 crypto accounts ranked by the quality of their followers (new guard version)
Top 20 crypto accounts ranked by the quality of their followers
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It seems that CT has lost ability to pump anything larger than microcaps and even there it can't pump several coins at once
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@insiliconot
If we add Memorial Day to weekends, during last month $ETH returned +32% on weekends and -37% during weekdays.
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@CryptoHayes
That's not how real rate is calculated
Real interest rate = nominal interest rate - rate of inflation
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Nice approach to L2 analysis by .
@0xHamz
I played with model's numbers and arrived to $3.4 as a market price for ARB.
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ETH foundation has a 71% win rate with their ETH sales. ETH had big price drops after 5 of their 7 sales and on 2 occasions it continued to chad up.
They usually sell after big price increases. This one is a smallest price increase yet.
Vertical lines on a chart are ETH sales.
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First order thinking on USDC:
they have 25% of reserves in 6 banks one of which has gone bankrupt -> USDC should trade at around 2% discount assuming 50% haircut on uninsured deposits
Second order thinking on USDC:
I'll be smart and redeem my USDC for 1$ -> USDC collapses
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Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs, none of the new meme coins have matched the peaks set by meme coins in the previous cycle. Unlike VC coins, there is no significant new supply for each individual meme coin. However, every day, new meme coins are launched, competing for the
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I would argue that crypto has already been tainted enough for people to avoid it. Just look at some of the most well-known figures in the space:
SBF - in jail
CZ - in jail
Do Kwon - in jail
Several companies, like Celsius and BlockFi, which were marketed as safe ways to invest
10/ huge barriers to mainstream adoption.
If Trump is crucified for his involvement in crypto not just in the courts but in the media, we will see a generation of Zoomers / Swifties completely eschew crypto and relentlessly bully any young person with interest in it.
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The end of the echo bubble? lol
Then we already had two echo bubbles in 2022 and "echo bubble" was just a fancy name for a bear market rally (which goes directly against what was written in original thread about echo bubble)
With the end of the echo bubble, market participants should be prepared for a 50-80% decline on alts
Some alts likely find new lows, while others could find higher lows
We will find great opportunity again for the halvening, but first we must protect capital in the face of Mt
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There seems to be a consensus forming that this is a bottom, evidenced by $500m in ETF outflows.
I find that argument puzzling. When inflows first reached $500m, they were followed by a string of inflows of similar size, which propelled BTC's price to an ATH.
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Paxos lost a license to mint BUSD because Binance issued them without cover on BSC. So instead Binance replaced it with TUSD. Now we find out that TUSD is another murky business. It's fours all the way down...
You have a stablecoin that:
-Won't tell you its banking partners
-The one known partner is bankrupt
-Has audits from a former FTX auditor
-Is attested by an oracle run only by that auditor
-Doesn't seem to be redeeming
-Pumped $2b into circ after knowing they had issues
😬
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@TheStalwart
@mcuban
Cuban says he was too lazy to do the math on how $TITAN functions but at the same time he felt it's ok to promote it on his blog. He knows how many followers he has who trust him and his brand... It seems he's no different from many CT influencers.
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@mdudas
When you need to compare Solana with Cardano to feel better, you know things aren't going well for Solana.
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I'm starting to think a NFT buy from a doxxed wallet was done in order to generate a pump and exit liquidity for closing of the position and/or entering an "inverse investment".
GCR is after all famous second level thinker.
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SBF and company are raccoons. Whole situation reminded me of excellent .
@EpsilonTheory
article Too Clever By Half
"The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State."
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@GCRClassic
Crypto is seen as a conduit for scams and fraud because it is a conduit for scams and fraud. Until there is a greater willingness to call out unethical behavior it will stay that way. Many use profit maximalism as a justification for not caring.
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During last two months I started to tweet results of my trade ideas
I'll try to do a summary at the end of every month for now on
I trade much more than I tweet but I post here only when I've spare time and enough conviction in a trade
Results are shown without leverage
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@insiliconot
Don't you know that bigger the loss the more leverage you need to break even with the same size of a move? There is a reason why exchanges offer 100x leverage...
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I'm unfollowing all that say they will post alpha somewhere else first.
Why be exit liquidity?
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Making Bitcoin the US reserve currency would be purely a grift, enriching the already wealthy while making no economic sense.
If your country is the reserve currency for other nations and you run huge fiscal deficits, there is no benefit in adopting another asset as the reserve
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@satsdart
@TradingJournal0
After Do Kwon, 3AC and FTX my tolerance for ethically gray behavior in the space has declined dramatically
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Also, how much alpha people who are desperate for a few ETH really have?
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With $FRIEND, you can invest at a seed-level valuation.
The only differences are that your tokens are unlocked (a negative, since you'll probably sell too early) and that it's an actual product with increasing market fit, not just another useless chain.
Yes, I'm aware I'm
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I think that after this ETF is 99% certain
Cleaning up Binance was a final step
Binance and DOJ:
- Fine of $4.3b
- Binance + CZ to plead guilty
- Entering plea in Seattle Court today
- Deal *may* preserve company's ability to operate
- CZ to step down as CEO
- CZ to retain majority ownership
- CZ not allowed to have executive role
What. A. Day.
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I'm starting to think that reaction to Matrixport news showed that market isn't positioned for "sell the news". Just like Cointelegraph's news previously showed that market isn't positioned for ETF approval.
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I'm long ETH/BTC.
After halving, BTC appears to have exhausted its narratives, and the latest ETF data indicate that most providers, including IBIT, have zero inflows.
ETH has just received news that the SEC will deny its ETF application. There is no more bad news left for ETH.
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Insiders span narratives to lure outsiders with hope of earning great returns but in the end game is zero-sum. Insiders depend on outsiders to earn outsized returns.
Nice article by
@LastBearStandng
about inside and outside game
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@The3D_
Treasury worth 50M gives it a price to book ratio of 20. Hope you're not investing because you see it as a value play.
If you see it as a growth play, where is the growth going to come from? TVL trend is negative...
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@GCRClassic
@SplitCapital
Worst 10 coins by this ratio among top 200 by marketcap.
Five of them are near or above 1 - DYDX, OP, GMT, MAGIC and GALA.
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There is no second best.
For a long time, the prevailing belief in crypto was that institutions would eventually come to buy our bags. With the advent of ETFs, that promise finally became a reality. Bitcoin ETFs have become some of the most popular ETFs ever.
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Yesterdays dump caught lots of people by surprise (obvious from liquidations). My feeling is that people who are down and didn't sell are now hoping for an ETF approval decision pump to bail them out. But if everyone is already positioned who's left to buy?
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In last 24h I've seen someone saying Charlie Munger is coping because he didn't invest in crypto and someone else proclaiming that Michael Burry is a one hit wonder
Euphoria levels on CT are pretty high
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@CryptoDonAlt
The chart may not look great, but this is not the first time BTC has made lower highs compared to stocks
Perhaps one more significant flush to make everyone in crypto reconsider the meaning of life
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Lots of people shitting on FTX corporate structure ex post. At the same time they are silent on Binance's corporate structure. I can only imagine it's X time more complex.
For FTX you at least knew they were situated in Bahamas. Binance literally can disappear without a trace.
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Finding Hidden Information is The Key to Success: On-Chain Analysis and Narrative Building
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Binance lost SEPA access leaving users stranded without ability to withdraw or trade in EUR. BNB looks like it's dying.
CRV is 20% from "super discount" level of 0.4 (who will sell first?).
Vitalik is selling ETH.
Meanwhile CT is distracted with anti-crypto pro-dox circus app
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@CryptoHornHairs
That looks identical to $ETH price action during last summer. Same bouncing ball meme that ultimately bounced off support (in this case resistance)
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@0xHamz
Here is the same table with percentages. This way it's easier to see who are the biggest diluters
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@CryptoDonAlt
Economy didn't buckle. Since BTC was created, only time economy did buckle BTC almost went to 0.
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@kiwifruitzzz
Rug pull for holders because there is a big difference from holding total MC and MC of top 20 accounts. Not very nice from them.
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There is an emerging anti-VC meta, with people being fed up with them draining liquidity and lining their pockets. They are basically using anchoring bias with their low market cap, high fully diluted valuation strategy to dump on unsuspecting market participants.
I don’t know
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National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) better captures what fuels Bitcoin bull markets.
Rising trend of the NFCI indicates that financial conditions are getting tighter than average, while falling trend indicates that financial conditions are getting looser than average.
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I'm sick of seeing people crying over Jump leaving crypto
Jump earned $1.28B market making for Do Kwon
Jump was heavily involved with SOL and SBF
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@mgnr_io
If an asset is down 80% from the high and you buy it and then later it's down 70% from the high, you earned 50% on your money. It's funny how math works...
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@Tree_of_Alpha
Munger is a self-made billionaire who is revered among investors and is 99 years old. I don't think he is coping.
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@GCRClassic
This is similar to Buffett's advice to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful
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What happened in 2021 during this time period?
After hitting an all-time high in mid-April, BTC underwent a 20% correction. By mid-May, it had recovered a large part of the lost ground, but it didn't reach an ATH again.
During that period, stocks didn't fare well either, with
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@karl_0x
That's impressive and it's due to success of GMX.
GMX is 39% of Arbitrum's TVL. For comparison, AAVE is biggest protocol on Polygon and Optimism, with 25% and 19% of theirs TVL.
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Reasons to be bearish:
- BTC broke down and is currently under resistance
- rally from 25k was in part fueled by ETF hopes but Gensler doesn't seem ready to back down
- crypto had all the wind in its back with XRP ruling and stocks in up only mode but all we got was a head fake
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In the last 7 days $1B in stablecoins left Binance (4% of the total)
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If I had to buy and hold a position for a year it would be long FTM short APT. FTM's key metrics are better, it has Andre Cronje shilling it again (after he retired before FTM's 80% drop vs ETH - pretty good timing) and pairs price trend is up.
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@Qi_Capital
Concerning 1: $RUNE holders will lose, in fact they have already lost. Reducing treasury holdings reduces value of $RUNE.
Concerning 2&3: The core protocol is still fully functional and the rest of the roadmap may be is intact but exploits reduce faith in the ability of the team.
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Buy, tweet, dump
If you don't have a bot, buying these low cap coins on tweets by influences is usually a losing game
Crypto influencers persuade people to invest in low marketcap coins. Here I would like to show you what happens when tweets like this show up on your timeline. It can be a disaster for you and the market. Do not let anybody be his exit liquidity. $FIDA
🧵🧵🧵
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@LomahCrypto
Then Fed doubled its balance sheet in couple of months creating a wall of money to support prices.
Now we have bad news with Fed rugging financial assets.
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Masks are coming off completely. There are no more narratives, no more let us pretend this is a future of finance.
Now we have just pure pumps and dumps of the few surviving players. Crypto red in tooth and claw. That's not an inviting sight...
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Gold's market cap has increased by ~$1.3 trillion since the start of the year, which is equivalent to the current market cap of BTC.
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Binance listing of SHIB marked its local top
On its first run, SHIB reached top 15 by market cap
It had 24% of DOGE market cap
PEPE reached top 35 with 16% of DOGE's market cap and 31% of SHIB's
Further upside seems pretty limited compared with market cap already reached
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Some old narratives are getting recycled (LSDs, metacoins, China coins). I haven't seen much talk about AI yet. Maybe that will be next on the menu.
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@Tree_of_Alpha
And I will dump it on a Sunday when liquidity is low
That is the power of *effective* altruism
Minimal effort for maximal impact
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Timing of this makes me think that events over the weekend created a hole in Binance which is now filled with recovery funds.
Let's see will *on-chain* recovery fund be refilled with crypto and how much of that will be BNB.
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Coins and narratives that I consider important to monitor closely:
- ARB & OP (EIP-4844)
- LQTY (v2 with leveraged stETH)
- BIT (burning supply and changing into MNT)
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Did Binance really just stopped BTC withdrawals after having $3.4B BTC withdrawals in a day or is this some mistake?
.
@DefiLlama
BINANCE SAYS TEMPORARILY CLOSED BTC WITHDRAWALS AS THE BITCOIN NETWORK IS EXPERIENCING A CONGESTION ISSUE
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Grayscale says they are considering buying back up to 20% of GBTC shares. In order to get the money to do so I assume they will need to sell BTC from the trust. It looks like sellers are not out of coins yet.
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