@BernieHole Reel back to 2020 and someone tells you covid is going to destroy the healthcare sector. What would your response have been? ;)

Claude, it is my long-standing view that Morningstar should simply refrain from having any view on such companies. They literally make a fool out of themselves and one only wonders how exactly they are offering anything of 'value' to their clientele by publishing their views. Note: they have done a great job in getting access to Fairfax newspapers, which means their views get regular coverage, yet again confusing Aussie investors

@therevaknight @mondyinvest @thechartist Equally important: while stop losses make a lot of sense for traders and momentum followers, it makes zilch sense for longer-term oriented investors. If my key holdings retreat, I don't want to be stopped out, I might buy more shares instead. See the difference?

Barrenjoey on $AMP: "AMP’s 2H24 result was in line with expectations, but included a soft dividend and outlook for lower dividend in 2025 as AMP shifts to growth phase. "The 4Q24 net flows were in line with our forecasts and below elevated industry experience, with the Platform revenue margin below expectations and expected to fall further in FY25E (below consensus expectations). "Guidance implies earnings downgrades to consensus and the stock is likely weak post a run into the result." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

@b_richo_ $CSL shares look "cheap", no doubt about it, but you know how the market works... the result 'missed' and that's all people know for the time being ;)

RBC Capital on Cochlear $COH: "Headline numbers (revenue, EBITDA, NPAT) missed RBCe and Consensus forecasts. "Divisionally, Cochlear implant revenues beat expectations however the number of implant units missed by 3-4%. Services revenues were slightly below our forecasts but were a significant miss to consensus. "Operating cashflows were weak due to an inventory build ahead of new product launches and having higher safety stock levels. "Management has guided to the low end of the FY25 NPAT guidance range and has increased the total expenditure of the cloud investment program (+$100m). "We expect the headline number misses, weak cochlear implant unit numbers, weak cashflow conversion and guiding to the low end of NPAT guidance to weigh on the stock today." #stockinfocus #equities #XJO #investing

Wilsons on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare $FPH: "We upgrade Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) to OVERWEIGHT but maintain our $35 PT. "Exceptionally strong CDC data in emergency department (ED) visits for influenza-like illnesses coupled with FPH’s current stock price (down 12% from pre-tariff highs) already reflecting said ramifications (WILSe FY26e EPS reductions of 10-12%) has led us to upgrade. "The top end of FPH’s FY25 sales and NPAT guidance assumes a ‘moderate’ flu season, yet we expect the astounding spike in ED visits by patients with influenza over the 2H25 TD (Mar YE) signals a ‘severe’ flu season which could bolster a potential beat to guidance. "Additionally, the market appears to have factored in tariff impacts into FPH’s stock price. "However, we are unconvinced that tariffs on Mexico in its current form or at all are definite as: a) Trump has delayed his tariff threat multiple times since he took office in late Jan 25; b) most medical devices were exempt from tariffs on China during Trump 1.0 and the Advanced Medical Technology Association (AdvaMed) are currently lobbying for a similar exemption." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

Averages are just that. The share market can go years on end without making a new record high. Forgotten about the lost decennium for Aussie shares, have we? Always dangerous to extrapolate the present into the future and assume the past was always like it. And that's not even mentioning the difference between the index and underlying #stocks ...

Citi on Treasury Wine $TWE: "We found Treasury's conference call to be incrementally positive with respect to China. "Treasury seems to have increased confidence about its ability to sell into China based on brand health, depletion trends and customer demand. This might increase the likelihood that the company takes price at some point, which would suggest upside to Penfolds multi-year earnings guidance. "While there may be some questions around how sustainable the China sales are following the stock rebuild post tariffs, i) ecommerce data is positive (72% growth on 1H20 for Bin & Icon) and this channel is a good reflection of end-user demand and ii) overall depletions are comparable to 1H20 (pre-tariffs), noting the luxury category is now 40% bigger than it was in 1H20. "The company is in ~10k points of distribution already, out of a target of ~25k." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

100% of the information you have about a company represents the past, and 100% of the value depends on the future.—Bill Miller

@nrossett We all have our moment under the sun ;)

Barrenjoey on Pro Medicus $PME: "Strong result as expected but no surprises. 1H25 was ahead of B*e by ~8% at Underlying EBIT but broadly in line with consensus (VA). "EBIT margins continue to expand, reaching 72% vs 66% in pcp. Contracting momentum has been extremely strong during the period with many of these not fully reflected in B*e (B*e ~$200m TCV per annum FY25-27e) and consensus estimates today, suggesting risks remain to the upside. "Our feedback from attending the RSNA conference in December was highly supportive of PME’s market leading position and strengthening market adoption." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

Update on $CSL #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

RBC Capital on GrainCorp $GNC: "The initial EBITDA guidance of $270-320m is soft relative to market expectations, (i) 0-16% below our RBCe estimate of $322m; and (ii) 2-17% below the consensus median of $327 (range $280-363m), and we expect the market to be downgrading on the back of this initial guide. "However, we also think that GNC has been somewhat more conservative in providing this guide than prior years, given the higher degree of uncertainty regarding macro and market variables. "GNC called out "recent uncertainty in global trade policies" and indicated its guidance remains subject to a range of variables including H2 grain volumes, export flows, supply chain margins, oilseed crush margins, and new season opportunities." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

E&P on Treasury Wine $TWE: "Overall, TWE delivered a mixed result relative to expectations. Whilst it provided new guidance (at the bottom end of its previous range), the composition suggests strong rebound is required in both Treasury Americas and Treasury Premium Brands. "We expect VA consensus forecasts to fall 2-5% in FY25 (down 2% gets VA consensus to TWE’s guidance). We note increased synergies for DAOU commencing from FY26 will help offset some of the flow on impact in FY26. "TWE's share price has underperformed the All Industrials by ~10% since its last trading update in mid-October given weak external newsflow and expectation for earnings downgrades. "Whilst downgrades will be modest (sub 5%) – the weak underlying Treasury Americas business (ex-DAOU) + no upgrade to Penfolds earnings expectations (despite very strong 1H aided by timing in the pcp + good China momentum) will temper against too much optimism. "Hence TWE’s conference call at 10am, and comments around these key issues, will be important to the post-result share price direction." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

RBC Capital on Downer EDI $DOW: "In-line Result - DOW has reported $204m Underlying EBITA (-7%/-2% vs RBCe/Cons of $219/208m). "The underlying EBITA margin during the period was 3.7% (1H24 was 2.5%). DOW announced a 10.8cps 1H25 dividend, 75% franked and 60% payout ratio - at the higher end of its target range (RBCe/cons 10cps/10cps). The result quality was OK with (i) cashflow conversion 79% (GOCF/EBITDA), (ii) pro-forma tax rate 21% (RBCe 29%), and (iii) $54.2m of significant items (pre-tax). "Maiden FY25 NPATA Guidance of $265-280m (RBCe/Cons $282/$278m). Downer provided maiden FY25 NPATA guidance of $265-280m (RBCe/Cons $282/278m). "Downer maintained its EBITA Margin Targets that it has set for itself of ≥4.2% FY25 EBITA Margin and >4.5% as an average across FY25/26. DOW referred to varied market conditions, particularly in lower Australian transport agency spend and softer conditions in New Zealand - both these issues were highlighted at the AGM in Nov-24. "Cost-out Target Increased to $200m - The annualised cost-out target has been increased to $200m by the end of FY25. "This is an increase to the $175m cost-out target that was announced 12 months ago at the 1H24 result. Of the $200m target, $180m has been achieved. "Stable Balance Sheet - DOW's leverage ratio (net debt/EBITDA) at Dec-24 was 1.3x which is a marginal improvement since Jun-24 when it was 1.4x." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

Barrenjoey on South32 $S32: "Result was marginally ahead with no major guidance revisions. Underlying NPAT was a 3-6% beat to B*e and consensus, which left the dividend ahead with market in line with S32 pay-out ratio for the half of 41%. "Minor FY25 unit cost guidance changes, with Worsley and Cannington revised higher while Cerro Matoso was lowered. Although in line with consensus. "Net debt of US$47m vs B*e at US$56m and consensus at US$15m. Potential divestment of Cerro Matoso being investigated." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing