The federal government released their EV mandate today. Of all the Soviet-style, top-down, market-defying policies they have implemented this year, this may be the most egregious. It restricts, then prohibits, the sale of non-ZEVs by 2035 /1
In 2008 Canada had a slightly higher GDP/capita than Australia. Today Australia's is 20% higher: USD$68,701 versus our $57,008.
The reason? Australia is 4th largest miner (vs 8th for CAN) and 2nd largest LNG exporter (versus 0 for CAN).
Policy matters.
Heard last night that some residential and commercial customers in Atlantic Canada are *switching from natural gas to oil* since the latter is exempted from carbon taxes and is now cheaper, despite being much higher emitting.
Predictable and frustrating.
Big regions of Canada and Alaska would experience warmer conditions by 2070.
These areas are now largely uninhabited and projected to remain that way without factoring in migration
A University of Alberta engineering researcher has found a way to produce carbon fibre from bitumen at half the cost of current commercial product and with 70% lower carbon emissions.
This is why the oil sands have a future well into the 22nd century
White House set to make deal to import more oil from Venezuela if Maduro promises he will have a more fair election next year.
If Maduro doesn't uphold deal for more fair election, the US could re-impose sanctions, perhaps late next year.
In 2022 Suncor alone spent $3.1 billion on Indigenous procurement, or a whopping 20% of overall spend.
By comparison, the entire federal govt spent $1.5 billion 1996-2018 (last year available) through their Aboriginal Procurement Strategy, well under <1%
As someone descended from the stout Bukovina peasants it references, I love this
@TheEconomist
article. Saskatchewan is a food, fuel and fertilizer powerhouse. If only we had more pipeline, rail & port options to get it to the rest of the world.
#skpoli
Pleased to publish this
@MLInstitute
article with
@johndesjr
on our Environics polling of Indigenous attitudes on resource development. 65% of First Nation, Métis and Inuit people in rural and reserve Canada said they support it. /1
Just when you think the federal government has turned the corner on nuclear, they go ahead & exclude it from the Clean Hydrogen Tax Credit. Only production from renewables will be eligible.
Say it with me: the goal is to decarbonize, not expand renewables
Hard to not interpret this as making people who work for oil & gas companies second class citizens who are not entitled to talk about their work to address climate goals or be proud of their achievements. Nice, healthy democracy we have here 👌
Great editorial in today’s Globe:
“No economic story can be boiled down to a single factor, but one difference stands out: Australia has dramatically expanded its production of natural gas & the infrastructure for exporting that fuel in liquefied form.” /1
My latest for
@globebusiness
on the EV mandate.
History has shown us time and again that government quotas are no match for the market. The Liberals want to show us one more time why this is the case.
As Germany shuts down its last remaining nuclear plants, UK, US, Canada, Japan & France make a 5-nation alliance at G7 energy mtg to support nuclear energy supply chains and “push Putin out of the nuclear fuel market entirely, as quickly as possible.”👏🏻
Westinghouse has partnered with Prodigy Clean Energy to develop a transportable nuclear power plant. Essentially a barge housing one or more eVinci microreactors, it would be built in a shipyard and moved 1000s of kms by heavy-lift carrier to the Far North
I will say it again, northern Saskatchewan is the Saudi Arabia of uranium supply. Cameco is perhaps the most geostrategically important company in Canada.
Cameco Marks Uranium Supply Agreement with China Nuclear International Corporation
Too many urban Canadians really think we are going to innovate ourselves out of needing commodities. Wherever you are, look around you. You are surrounded by mining products, hydrocarbons and lumber. You are holding minerals and plastics in your hand.
@ExnerPirot
Instead of advanced manufacturing or globally competitive service providers, this is a plan to invest in industries that could very well become stranded assets in ten years time.
‘Tim Gitzel, CEO of Cameco, said Ukraine approached them asking to take over the fuel supply that had been provided by Russia. They signed a deal to 2035 and supply nuclear fuel for 15 reactors. “They used Russian fuel until now. They don’t any more. They’re using Canadian fuel.”
China busy buying up global LNG and securing long term contracts, and stocking crude oil too. They are ensuring they will have leverage over global energy markets for medium and long term. We are paying checkers while Chinese play chess on energy security.
Charlie Angus introduced a member’s bill yesterday to “prohibit ad campaigns that promote cleaner versions of fossil fuels or tout the industry as a tool for Indigenous reconciliation.”
Would subject my realtor, who runs
@CanadaAction
, to up to 2 years’ jail time for this poster.
MEG Energy estimates coming online of TMX will narrow differential between WTI (benchmark oil price) and WCS (main Canadian oil benchmark) by US$10/barrel. This adds tens of billions of $ value to our oil exports.
TMX at $30B+ is a travesty but it’s so worth it!
H/T
@garquake
As far as I can tell Edmonton’s lowest temperature of this cold snap was -45.9C.
No other city of > 1 million pop. in the western hemisphere has ever been that cold, and I believe globally only Novosibirsk has been colder (I checked Harbin and Ulaanbaatar). ❄️🏆
Cc
@YEG_Weather
Since 2005, only four new critical minerals mines have opened in Canada. According to the government’s own data, if Canada is to fully support domestic EV battery production it needs to open more than 20 new mines by 2035.
I’m so tired of people arguing we can harness solar and wind to power civilizations for free without any corresponding materials from non renewable mineral and metal sources
Now, consider the analogous forces for wind & solar. On one side, the resource is ... effectively infinite. It is not getting more difficult to obtain over time -- it is free & abundant now & will be free & abundant forever. 🌞🌬️
Growing the economy doesn’t even occur to these guys.
Reduce regulatory burden, enhance competitiveness, and attract investment, not least in energy and resources. It’s not rocket science.
My latest op-ed:
The timeline for TMX has doubled and costs have tripled since the feds bought it. How? As one example, a hummingbird nest in a felled tree, from a species "of least concern", caused a shut down for months and ~$100 million in losses.
Guilbeault is
@MLInstitute
’s policymaker of the year.
One could almost admire his unwavering commitment to his principles. But in his actions, he has treated the fact that Canada is a democracy, market economy & federation as inconveniences to be overcome.
You could simply tax businesses less and allow them to invest in brainpower, productivity and growth, for which the market would reward them, and for which they have every incentive. Instead we diminish their ability to invest and have the government pick winners and losers.
Now is the moment to invest in Canadian brainpower, in productivity, and economic growth. And we can afford to do this because we are making our tax system fairer.
Japan secures more LNG supply amid wider energy security push
🇯🇵 🤝🇦🇪
🚢 Japex will buy from Adnoc under a 5-year deal
📝 The deal is valued at $500 million (which is just a handful of cargoes a year)
💰 In the last year, Japan has inked long-term deals w/ Oman, US, Australia
If Canadians have failed to appreciate the scale of decline in resource & energy investment, it’s partly due to the fact that the absence of something—the project that never gets approval, or the investor that walks away—is hard to quantify. But there’s a way to assess the damage
Oilsands facilities are up front capital intensive. So govt charged just 1-9% royalty in pre-payout (revenues<costs). But it’s 25-40% in post-payout, which 1st facilities hit last year. Alberta is only now reaping the enormous windfall from the oil sands.
So Canada will ban *crude* oil from Russia, which we haven’t imported in two years, but nothing on whether we will ban light and other oil products, which we actually do import from Russia. A token but empty gesture?
Indigenous leaders and representatives from Energy for a Secure Future held a news conference on Parliament Hill today calling on the G7 to make LNG trade with Canada a priority.
The short answer is for the federal government to create a political environment where investors feel safe investing billions of dollars in LNG projects in Canada. The very opposite exists now. The Impact Assessment Act leaves the final decision, regardless of regulator... /1
Some of the obvious problems with this scheme:
It privileges a certain technology (EVs) over lowering emissions, so that for example a Ford F-150 lightning is allowable but a Honda Civic is not. This disregards life cycle emissions and other environmental considerations /2
US oil inventories at lowest since 1985; SPR lowest since 1983.
Canada accounts for 60% of US oil imports, ~ 4.5 million b/d.
96% of our oil exports go to US.
Guilbeault’s proposed emissions cap would cut our output by ~1.3 million b/d.
I’m telling you the US will not have it.
The Hans Island dispute is resolved! With that, there are no more challenges to Canadian sovereignty over its
#Arctic
lands (but a few maritime boundary disputes remain).
Canada and Denmark reach settlement over disputed Arctic island, sources say
Of the 25 sectors in Canada with > $200 in labour productivity/hour, 23 are in oil & gas, mining and utilities.
Oil sands contributes $998/hour in labour productivity to our economy
Canadian average is $61.10
Auto manufacturing is $60.90
Just over a year ago the Liberals excluded nuclear energy from their green bond program, alongside fossil fuels, tobacco, alcohol, gambling and arms manufacturing.
Their current support for nuclear is an astonishing and welcome 180° turn 👏🏻
TRUDEAU BACKS NUCLEAR IN MEETING WITH GERMAN PRESIDENT
In an event with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier,
@JustinTrudeau
openly celebrates drawing in German factories to be powered by "doing much more nuclear."
Astonishing turn of opinion for Trudeau. Rough for Germany.
“Solar and wind look more expensive than almost any alternative on an unsubsidized basis…This is especially true when accounting for the full system costs…Nuclear appears to be the cheapest scalable, clean energy source by far.”
@BankofAmerica
As nuclear gets a second wind & uranium soars, here’s your reminder that northern Saskatchewan’s Athabasca region is the world’s richest uranium jurisdiction, and Cameco’s Cigar Lake and McArthur River are the world’s most valuable mines, *of any metal*, by ore reserve value/ton.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry peaked eight years ago. They have since fallen 7 per cent. But emissions didn’t fall because the production of oil and gas fell. It rose 16 per cent, to record levels, as emissions declined.
Author uses a 2019 report to back up claim the world is moving away from nuclear - a week after IEA issued a report saying nuclear power will break global records in 2025, and two months after a huge international commitment at COP28 to triple nuclear energy to meet NZ2050 goals.
The good news: world mining production finally surpassed 2019 levels in 2022
The bad news: Asia the only continent to beat 2019 levels. China by far largest miner
Aaaand growth mostly in mineral fuels (coal, oil, NG) offsetting decline in iron/ferro alloys
I couldn’t disagree more with this Globe editorial. Noting a single major project approved since IAA became law in 2019 and concluding “The IAA so far has done its job” is preposterous. No one is acting with any urgency in this country despite energy, climate & security crises /1
The easy path for Toyota would be to follow others’ lead and go all in on EVs. The fact that they are holding their ground in the face of criticism, because they can’t reconcile a 100% EV future with what they know to be true, deserves attention.
Current EV adopters are overwhelmingly high income, urban and white, and can charge at home. The mandate doesn’t help those renting, living in apartments, or in rural areas with limited distribution overcome logistical and cost barriers to adoption. /4
Do you live in a northern or rural area? Have range concerns in extreme cold weather? Don’t worry the government “has heard the concerns” and expects ZEV technology to improve over time. Absolutely no exceptions or provisions are made though! /6
I was despairing a few months ago that no one in Canada was paying attention to Chinese manipulation of critical minerals markets and supply chains. So glad to see this move.
Big uranium news: Massive Rook 1 project gets first uranium greenfield mine approval from SK govt in over twenty years.
Lots of strong Indigenous engagement too.
This supply is badly needed to support anticipated growth in nuclear energy 💥
It’s a historic day at $NXE as we’ve received Provincial Environmental Assessment approval for the Rook I Project – marking the first greenfield project approved in Canada in over 20 years!
@leighcuryer
@travmcph
Fantastic news, Haisla-owned Cedar LNG has been approved. First majority Indigenous-owned LNG facility and a great template for how we can develop our resources and advance Indigenous prosperity in Canada.
Add BHP to the list of Cenovus, Dow, Microsoft and other giants looking at nuclear for their industrial energy needs.
BHP is considering nuclear energy to power what will be the world’s biggest potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada
H/T
@brahmneufeld
German grid will struggle with milions of heatpumps says energy industry.
Future winter peak load of EXTRA 10 GW can only be covered by NEW fossil natural gas power plants, which are not even built yet.
Germany has just stopped 8 GW of low carbon, weather-independent nuclear
Canada is currently planning 11 new nuclear reactors, out of a global total of 111, in a list dominated by Russia and China, with India and Canada the only other notable jurisdictions. (Another 436 are operating and 59 already under construction) H/T
@quakes99
As expected, $ENB.TO $ENB continue to grow their
#LNG
#EnergyInfrastructure
footprint.
A new JV for storage & connecting Permian Nat Gas to USGC Export LNG.
A lot packed into this JV.. will share a few highlights below.
#NaturalGas
#Investing
Canada's best mining production days are in the past. We need to get them back.
Peak production year in Canada
Copper: 1991
Zinc: 1992
Nickel: 2008
Platinum group: 2015
Uranium: 2016
Graphite: 2020
Annual Statistics of Mineral Production
H/T
@QuinnHeffron
Saudi Arabia is on the hunt for more LNG investments as it sees growing demand for the fuel 🇸🇦 ❤️ 🚢
💪 “Aramco’s intention is to become a leading global LNG player”
📅 Aramco last week announced its entry into the LNG market with its first investment
TL;DR The federal government cannot mandate auto manufacturers, dealers, electrification, consumer preferences etc in this way. It will drive up costs, reduce supply, cause unintended consequences and lead to perverse incentives. An emissions focused approach would be better. /11
This is bullish for Saskatchewan (with its politically reliable uranium)
and a good reminder that every commodity - uranium, copper, nickel, wheat, oil and gas - will be used for geopolitical advantage if it is deemed strategic. Energy insecurity is not just an oil problem.
Big news for microreactors! 🤯
Saskatchewan will host the first Westinghouse eVinci microreactor in Canada, scheduled to be completed in 2029, subject to licensing and regulatory processes. Location TBD.
#nuclear
#microreactor
I see a lot of conflation of the terms critical, rare and precious minerals in the media and political commentary. They are very distinct categories and not interchangeable. Here's a short explainer for the non-geologists like myself! /1
“The one certainty in the approval process is it will be difficult to get projects done in Canada. I would say it is an adversarial regulatory process.”
Major projects in Canada are still seen as a luxury for the proponent rather a necessity for society.
Liberals poll worse with Indigenous peoples than with any other ancestry group.
Indigenous peoples are disproportionately religious and far more likely than the average Canadian to hunt, work in the resource sector, and live in rural/western/northern regions.
US’s first new nuclear reactor, Unit 3 at Vogtle, started operations this week, which is great news. But it cost ~$11 billion/GW. China is building new nuclear at a feverish pace at a cost of ~$2 billion/ GW. New nuclear can be affordable but the West needs to get better at it.
Everyone is talking about AI or quantum or space or chips or defense in US v China competition.
What are few talking about? Nuclear reactors. Here's why that is critical.
Elizabeth May calling Indigenous opposition "appropriation of fake concern for Indigenous lands from the fossil fuel lobby" is so insulting. One of the last vestiges of outright paternalism is assuming they couldn't possibly have perspectives or interests on the matter themselves
New Democrat bid to snuff out oil and gas advertising sparks backlash from provincial counterparts, Indigenous partners, by
@LeftHandStu
#cdnpoli
(subs)
“‘We want you to know Canada for our resourcefulness, not our resources’, Trudeau told an audience in Davos some years back. Our allies are questioning our resourcefulness right now. And they would surely like us to get back to developing those resources.”
Worth noting how dominant OPG is becoming in the new nuclear sector. Agreements/MOUs in the past year in Poland, Czech, Romania, France (EDF), USA (TVA), Saskatchewan, Alberta…+ many big uranium/nuclear corps.
Leveraging first mover advantage and building an empire. Impressive!
New Indigenous equity deal just dropped in the o&g sector💥
Tamarack Valley Energy $TVE with 12 First Nations, who take an 85% stake in $173m of Clearwater midstream assets w/ a 16 year take-or-pay commitment. Congrats to Francis Erasmus, Brian Schmidt, AIOC and WWN shareholders!
My latest, with
@jessecmccormick
of
@fnmpc
, on the opportunities for the nuclear industry & Indigenous nations with SMRs.
"Workforce participation, construction contracts, component manufacturing and equity are just some of the options being explored."
Excited to be a Fellow in residence at the Wilson Centre in Washington DC this Fall, jointly hosted by the Polar Institute and the Canada Institute! My research will be focused on Arctic development :)
👀 The rare earths stockpile from NWT’s Nechalacho mine is no longer being sold to the Chinese, as announced in December. The Saskatchewan Research Council will now purchase it in a move backed by Natural Resources Canada.
Well done 👏🏻
#criticalminerals
Looks like the first oil cargo from TMX is headed to China, from Suncor to Sinochem. There had been some speculation that deliveries would just go to California / USA so this is interesting.
Unlike the US EPA new tailpipe emissions standards, which are very ambitious, Canada’s regs control what dealers and manufacturers can sell. The EPA incentivizes lower emissions, leaving more room for other options like hydrogen, clean fuels, hybrids etc/3
“Only 1/3 of the CEOs rated Canada as a good place to invest. One cited a “lack of clarity on overall industrial and business policy”, another accused government of being “hostile to business in general” with “little or no consultation or collaboration.”
The Nechalacho mine in NWT promised to break China’s dominance of the rare earths supply chain. Instead it became a cautionary tale. The Chinese undermined the market, bailed out the producer, bought their stockpile & dismantled the processing plant in SK.
Critical minerals demand will have a hard time matching supply.
Uranium price ⬆️, demand is ⬆️ but Cameco can’t meet production targets due to “availability of personnel with the necessary skills and experience, and the impact of supply chain challenges”
“It’s crazy that we’re selling our only rare earths stockpile that was developed in North America to the Chinese,” said Heather Exner-Pirot.
“There’s pretty good security reasons why we shouldn’t let it happen.” /1
My latest op-Ed: The Arctic is the area where Canada should lead. Instead our foreign policy there has been atrophying for two decades. Meanwhile the US is filling the void with better strategy, a new consulate in Tromsø, and a new Arctic Ambassador role.
My edited book with Lassi Heininen is now available: Climate Change and Arctic Security: Searching for a New Paradigm
It is available open access from my ResearchGate profile:
Here is Trudeau and G7 asking oil and gas producing countries to increase supply to global markets. Referring specifically to OPEC.
Does Ottawa realize we’re an oil exporter yet?? Do they have any strategies to make sure Canadian product can get to those markets?
Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and
#G7
Leaders met in Brussels, Belgium, to further strengthen cooperation in light of Russia’s unjustifiable, unprovoked and illegal aggression against independent and sovereign Ukraine. Read their joint statement:
As the price of gold hits an all time high today, worth noting that of the top 100 mining exploration projects in Canada, over half, or 52, are for gold - which is not a critical mineral. Meanwhile energy transition metals are struggling to get investment.
#PDAC2024
In the real world, corporations are shifting their capital to places that want it. A new govrnmnt better find ways to attract it back if they want to turn the economic ship around, which is their job. Making corporations beg to spend their money here is probably not going to work
The cheapest and fastest way to improve mining approvals would be to move to “one project one assessment” and defer to provinces & their jurisdiction over natural resources, as affirmed by Supreme Court. Friendly reminder that *not one mine* has been approved yet under IAA. /1
This is why we can't have nice things.
Yes we need high environmental standards and strong Indigenous consultation.
But it shouldn't take a dozen different federal and provincial ministries, with differing requirements and processes, to govern it.
#permittingreform
US Admiral
@stavridisj
: “I continue to be deeply disappointed in Canada’s unwillingness to increase its defense spending…Canada punches well below its weight…For a very wealthy Western democracy, this smacks of taking advantage of allies like the US.”
Dear god. Has there been a more catastrophic environmentalist movement than anti nuclear.
Imagine if the world had gone the way of France, with 70% of power from nuclear. We’d be talking about 1 degree of global warming instead of 2 and there would be no climate crisis.
Experimental so-called Small Modular Reactors pose risk of plutonium reprocessing and nuclear weapons proliferation. I pressed for answers today. Can't say I got one!
#StopSMRs
#NoNukes
#BanNuclearWeapons
#GPC
Of all new planned uranium projects globally, well over half of production would come from northern Saskatchewan, which are generally most economic as well (the big 9+mlbs in green on bottom).
Hoping that *for once* Canada will treat this incredible resource strategically.
Interesting article from the FT this weekend.
China is and will remain hungry for new sources of uranium and is scouring the globe for acquisitions. No surprise here of course. No country in the world is currently building more new nuclear reactors than China. Chinese utilities
Another BC LNG project has been approved 💥
Tilbury Marine Jetty (under CEEA 2012, not IAA, substituted to BC)
Looks like it was a painful process, but it’s done 👏🏻 and that’s good news
My latest: There is growing concern that a national Indigenous loan guarantee program will exclude oil & gas. No doubt environmentalists would treat that as a win. But for Indigenous communities it would take billions in equity opportunities off the table.
The US will lead a pledge to triple global nuclear power capacity by 2050 at COP28 🇺🇸☢️
💰 Declaration will call on the World Bank & other financial institutions to include nuclear in lending policies
🌎 UK, France, Sweden, Finland, Korea to join pledge
Nearly 93% of Haisla members who participated in a ratification vote on Cedar LNG supported plans by the elected band council to borrow money for the development, construction and co-ownership of the venture.
We are seeing “greenlash” because people were told the energy transition would make things easier and cheaper and better than the status quo. Who will tell the people that it is expensive and hard and entails tradeoffs, but they still believe it necessary?