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Your home for advanced NHL statistics on the web | Subscribe: | Created by @EvolvingWild | Social run by @shawnferris98
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Since 2007, Henrik Lundqvist provided 57.2 wins above replacement to the Rangers, close to 20 more than the next goalie (Carey Price).
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Sir this is a statistics account
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5v5 Takeaway Leaders:
1. Auston Matthews - 74
T2. Alex Pietrangelo - 56
T2. MacKenzie Weegar - 56
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Not only does Auston Matthews lead the NHL in goals, he also leads all forwards in takeaways at 59, with 6 coming tonight.
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Henrik Lundqvist saved 9.97 goals above expected when the Rangers faced elimination in their 2014 cup run
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You versus the guy she tells you not to worry about
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Since Jim Benning took over as GM in 2014, the Canucks are 30th in the NHL in 5v5 and all-situations expected goal share.
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The San Jose Sharks are the only team in the NHL who have a higher save percentage while shorthanded (.921) than at even strength (.896)
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are the only team not to have surrendered a shorthanded goal so far this season
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We projected an AAV of $7.99 million at a six-year term. This is wicked team-friendly.
The Penguins have agreed to terms with forward Bryan Rust on a six-year, $30.75 million dollar contract extension.
The deal begins in the 2022.23 season and runs through 2027.28 carrying an average annual value of $5.125 million.
Details:
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Even strength primary points this season (no empty nets):
1. MacKinnon - 60
2. Matthews - 55
T-3. McDavid, Pastrnak - 54
5. Kucherov - 49
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Niklas Hjalmarsson is arguably one of the greatest defensive players to ever play the game. We do not have data for historical comparisons, but his total career defensive GAR/xGAR is so far above his pears it’s hard not to come to that conclusion.
Per source, Coyotes UFA D Niklas Hjalmarsson is retiring. I don't expect a formal announcement or statement from Nik. Those who have covered him or known him know that is not his style.
He was an integral part of 3 Stanley Cups in Chicago and the consummate pro on/off the ice.
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We projected 4 years at $6.005 million. This is humiliating 😭
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Kaapo Kakko's growth over the last year has been spectacular. Last season he had a 38% expected goal share at 5v5. This season, that has improved to 56%.
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Over that same span, Lundqvist saved 278 goals above expected during the regular season. The next goaltender is Jaro Halak at 96.
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We'll need to process the data tonight to confirm, but it appears Oettinger now has the highest Goals Saved Above Expected for any goalie in a playoff series since 2007. Truly historic.
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Not only is Kyle Dubas the most attractive general manager, he's pretty smart too. Ryan O'Reilly won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2019 where he defeated the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final.
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Did you realize Jared McCann has scored 30 goals already this season? The former Canuck leads all skaters in shooting impact at even strength.
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A player we probably don't talk enough about - Nils Hoglander
There were 8 players from the 2019 draft class that played at least 200 minutes in the NHL last year. The second round pick finished second among them in GAR.
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After last night's affair, Marc-Andre Fleury has saved 6.9 goals above expected this postseason.
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Detroit single-handedly trying to ruin us
For what it's worth, every one of Yzerman's major UFA signings today all came in *under* the predicted AAV by
@EvolvingHockey
's model.
Term was as predicted (Chiarot, Kubalik) or shorter (Perron, Maatta) with the exception of Copp (5 years, 4 predicted).
Good cap value.
#LGRW
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Nick Robertson had an 86% expected goal share at even strength tonight 👀
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Players with the most expected goals without a goal yet this season:
Jeff Skinner - 3.33
David Kampf - 2.86
Lawson Crouse - 2.60
Josh Leivo - 2.43
Phillip Danault - 2.32
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We have the Colorado Avalanche at exactly 69.0% odds to score more goals than the Vancouver Canucks tonight
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Tyler Toffoli didn't want to spend another day in Alberta...so he has been sent to Newark.
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The Rangers are actually insane in the faceoff circle
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Through 80 minutes, Igor Shesterkin has allowed 3 goals and still has a Goals Saved Above Expected of +3.3.
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Alex Galchenyuk has a GAR of 3.6 in 14 games. Nazem Kadri has a GAR of 3.4 in 43 games. Much to think about.
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"I wouldn't have Fox at No. 2. He's a fantastic player -- don't get me wrong -- but I think he has trouble with physical forwards," the veteran said.
We asked an anonymous panel of NHL players and team execs for their top 10 at each position.
Today: Top 10 NHL defensemen, featuring surprises, notable snubs and The Great Erik Karlsson Debate. Reporting by
@ryan_s_clark
and
@kristen_shilton
. Enjoy!
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According to our cubic model, Brendan Leipsic will be worth 5 standings points below replacement next season
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Shots on goal were 10-1 in favor of the Leafs with William Nylander on the ice at even strength tonight
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Jeff Petry is certainly an outlier with this extension. Even at his age, we'd expect a defenseman of his caliber to get a long-term contract (7/8 years). Additionally, at a 4-year term, we'd expect an AAV of $7.456. 4 years at $6.25 seems like a very good deal for the Habs.
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You vs. the guy she told you not to worry about, part 2.
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We drafted Seattle's team for them.
We're the Kraken now. This is the team. We don't make the rules... we just followed them.
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Evolving Hockey's team point projections for the '22-23 NHL season are now live!
This year's overview can be found here:
Projections:
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We’d like to take this opportunity to send a huge thank you to everyone at
@CapFriendly
. Not only are our projections not possible without their incredible data, but their site continues to be the best hockey site in the game. Truly an incredible resource for everyone. 🙏
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We have the Calgary Flames at exactly 69% chance to make the playoffs
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Alexandar Georgiev faced 4.9 expected goals on his way to shutting out the Golden Knights
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TJ Brodie is a very good defenseman, specifically at reducing the rate of shots his opponents take at even strength.
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You versus the guy she told you not to worry about
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A battle between the two best American defensemen in the NHL at 1 PM eastern on ABC
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5v5 xGF% among skaters with at least 400 minutes this season:
1. Patrice Bergeron - 68.2%
2. Auston Matthews - 64.0%
3. Bradley Marchand - 63.8%
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Even strength expected goal share for the two inserts into the Leafs lineup
Jason Spezza - 92.9%
Justin Holl - 71.9%
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This had an expected goal value of -1
The footage went missing, but Kämpf has been working on this one in practice 😉
#LeafsForever
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PSA: We 100% endorse using visualizations from our site on signs at games.
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"He’s an important guy for us, but, as I’ve talked to him about … our team is deeper on defence now. The standard is higher in terms of staying in. He was in a similar situation last season."
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We are still trying to verify whether or not this is real...in the meantime, enjoy a RAPM chart
🚨 TRADE ALERT! 🚨
We have acquired defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for our first round pick (13th overall) in the 2021 NHL Draft, a second round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft and defenseman Robert Hagg. Details:
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So this is what solving your Tom Wilson problem looks like?
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For a one-year term we projected $1.6 million...so much for a flat cap
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Another nice stat from the postseason...
With Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Teuvo Teravainen on the ice together at 5v5, the Canes outshot their opponents by 69
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** 2021-2022 NHL TEAM POINT PROJECTIONS **
We wrote a quick summary of our model and covered some interesting aspects within each division. Check it out! These, along with our new game predictions, will be updated daily on the site during the season.
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Jack Campbell has saved 8.56 goals above expected in only 8 games
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Even strength points per 60
Draisaitl - 2.68
Bunting - 2.99
Even strength goal differential per 60
Draisaitl - 0.93
Bunting - 1.55
Cap Hit
Draisaitl - $8.50MM
Bunting - $950k
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We projected $8.574 million for the AAV. We'll send refunds to subscribers later today.
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After being illegally hit from behind in 2007, missing 72 games, Patrice Bergeron returned with a remarkable 15 season stretch. Only Sidney Crosby and Joe Pavelski contributed more wins to their team over that time frame. So long captain.
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Since March 1, the Los Angeles Kings and Toronto Maple Leafs have scored the same number of goals shorthanded as the Seattle Kraken have scored powerplay goals (4)
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We'd probably project Jagr to be like a 1 year x $1M deal, and he'd likely project to still be more valuable than several of the players signed today.
NHL GMs- I am also free agent, once again. 6,3 265 … 50 years old ,slow, but strong and good hands. Can bring experience and like to play only home games. Call me anytime. 😉Also as the owner of hockey club In czech liga -I am looking to sign a Defenseman No jokes
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Matthew Tkachuk's offense this season is a little absurd, extending beyond 4 standard deviations in all even strength categories.
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Projected GAR next season
Matthew Tkachuk: 15.8
Jon Huberdeau: 8.7
MacKenzie Weegar: 7.8
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Alex Tuch is a decent two-way forward without any clear weaknesses
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We projected an AAV of $4.4 million for four years. The model had a lot of uncertainty around both term and AAV here.
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We projected $4.468 million on a two-year term. Massive overpay smh...
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Filip Hronek is having one of the quietest breakout seasons around. While the 25 year old has 25 points in 32 games, a great deal of his value has come from the defensive side of the game as well.
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We projected 3 years at $3 million. At a two-year term we projected $2.2 million.
BIG NEWS! The Penguins have re-signed forward Teddy Blueger to a two-year contract.
The one-way deal will run through the 2022.23 campaign and carries an average annual value of $2.2 million.
Details:
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This partnership couldn't be a better fit and we hope you are as excited about it as we are
Major Feature Announcement!
We've teamed up with
@EvolvingHockey
to bring some key advanced stats to CapFriendly!
There is now a toggle to switch between standard and advanced stats on player pages, for example, shown is Sidney Crosby's player page
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This excludes his first two seasons where he received Hart Trophy votes as a rookie and sophomore goaltender. Those might've been his best seasons.
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Unfortunately, Jared Spurgeon has been removed from our website. We will be taking no further questions.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news,
@EvolvingHockey
and other Jared Spurgeon fancy stats fans. Much more in my NHL column this week:
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The 2023 Calder Trophy winner and NHL All-Star does most things very well.
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Rookie GAR leaders:
Kirill Kaprizov - 6.0
Artem Zub - 4.5
Nicolas Beaudin - 3.3
Logan Stanley - 2.9
Pius Suter - 2.8
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The Detroit Red Wings 5v5 stats since adding Priority Waste patches to their jerseys
GF% - 23.4% (32nd)
CF% - 41.4% (31st)
xGF% - 44.0% (28th)
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Ethan Bear is a reliable defenseman that many teams would love to have
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Top defensive pairs in 5v5 CF% (at least 100 minutes together)
1. Brent Burns - Jaccob Slavin (65.4%)
2. Filip Hronek - Quinn Hughes (63.5%)
3. Bowen Byram - Samuel Girard (60.0%)
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#NYR
K'Andre Miller is set to be a restricted free agent this summer. The 23-year-old Minnesota-native has been healthy and productive in his first three seasons. Will he extend long-term, bridge, or head back home?
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