Éric Grenier
@EricGrenierTW
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I cover elections at The Writ (), The Numbers () and Les chiffres () Follow me on YouTube:
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Joined January 2010
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What a landslide. By my count, Poilievre won all but six ridings in Quebec and two in Ontario. Riding wins were 330 for Poilievre, 8 for Charest.
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That a plurality of Conservative voters now believe the election was stolen because of Chinese interference is depressing and a reminder of how journalists have a responsibility to report things without sensationalism.
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Civic literacy is really going to be put to the test again for the next little while, huh.
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Conservative leadership Q2 fundraising:
$4,042,717 - Poilievre
$1,376,492 - Charest
$ 709,061 - Lewis
$ 541,707 - Brown
$ 504,650 - Baber
$ 363,922 - Aitchison
#cpcldr
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So, I have, as they say, some personal news. After nearly seven years working with the CBC in the parliamentary bureau as the CBC's polls analyst, I've decided it is time to move on and do something different.
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Want to blame the government for bad communications and bad handling of this issue? Go right ahead. But we in the media also have a responsibility not to recklessly stoke conspiracy theories for clicks and headlines.
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It's not often you get 80%+ people agreeing with anything, but this is the third poll this week in which at least 4 out of 5 Canadians say they want the border to remain closed.
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I've seen lots of reference to the Angus Reid Institute poll that suggests a majority want to end restrictions and "let people self-isolate if they're at risk", whatever that means. Léger's more straightforward question still shows majority don't want to lift restrictions:
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First time these parties have switched spots in nearly 18 months.
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Patrick Brown’s impact? Poilievre averaged 71% in Brampton, Charest just 16%.
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I think it's fair to say the Conservatives did not win Day -2.
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I'm a little confused about the slippery slope argument, re: Legault on taxing the unvaccinated. Don't drinkers and smokers already pay more than non-drinkers and non-smokers due to the extra taxes on these products?
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The "leader's courtesy" has traditionally applied to leaders running for a seat in the House of Commons in a riding previously occupied by the party they lead. It does not apply to seats in which a new leader is running that was previously represented by a different party.
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It's back!
Poll Tracker: Pandemic boosts Liberals back into majority territory | CBC News
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Life expectancy at birth is 82 years. Life expectancy at 83 is another eight years or so.
The average age of people who succumb to COVID-19 is 83. Alberta’s average life expectancy is 82.
This demonstrates the critical importance of building this wall of protection around our fragile and vulnerable seniors population.
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Karen McCrimmon becomes the first MPP for the area that currently makes up the modern riding of Kanata–Carleton that isn't a Conservative or PC since the United Farmers won the seat in 1919.
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I’m having trouble imagining a vaccination measure that is more likely to be as incredibly unpopular to the vast majority of people as the one proposed by Jason Kenney.
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Few people will take notice of scrums taking place outside of the election period, but Poilievre is punching down here and unpleasant interactions like this over a six-week election campaign will not wear on Poilievre well.
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When you're trying to record a radio hit from your closet:
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Okay, well it looks like that'll it be it for Polling in the 2019 Federal Election. That was a fun 40 days. And now for what is customarily a long and boring day that ends in a flurry of adrenaline, self-loathing and/or quiet celebration — Election Day!
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Hi
@MichelleRempel
, my piece was written on Friday, the Ipsos poll was published Sunday so (without a time machine) I couldn't include the data in my analysis. It would change some things, but looking at Ipsos's regional breakdown the broad conclusions would likely be the same.
Lol. Working with similar data, I present to you two very different headlines from two different Canadian news outlets from this morning on the one year to the election mark.
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Jody Wilson-Raybould will not be running for re-election in Vancouver Granville. Electorally, this makes the seat an easier one for the Liberals to win, which I suspect they were going to anyway.
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Obviously, panic is not a solution for anything. But if you're using your energies and platform to downplay the potential risks of omicron, you're really the worst kind of person.
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Very excited to announce the launch of The Writ! I'm going back to my roots and striking out on my own — and I hope you'll come along with me. First, a little more on why I'm doing this and what you'll get if you subscribe to The Writ:
#cdnpoli
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Speaking from experience, one can be multiple things, including both a Quebecer and a Franco-Ontarian, regardless of your place of residence or birth.
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Elections Canada says that, based on expected volumes, they will be able to start counting mail ballots on Tuesday and have the vast majority of ridings completed by Wednesday, with some potentially still taking the rest of the week to complete.
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The surprise isn't that Jane Philpott is in third in Markham–Stouffville in this Mainstreet/338Canada poll, the surprise is that the Liberals are still in first. This isn't the first poll to suggest the Conservatives are having some trouble in Ontario.
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Insisting on an answer on Day 1 whether a leader will resign is a little odd. Maybe let’s see how it goes first?
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I so rarely have time to vote on Election Day, so this was a treat. There was a line and a wait but it was pretty quick, beautiful day here in Ottawa and the Elections Canada workers were helpful and lovely. Make sure you give yourself enough time just in case there’s a rush!
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Most up-to-date fundraising numbers compiled from the first and second interim reports just posted by Elections Canada:
$6,770,240 - Poilievre
$2,729,387 - Charest
$1,531,345 - Lewis
$ 647,269 - Baber
$ 549,967 - Aitchison
#cpcldr
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The proper way to report on this poll, if report on it one must, would be to mention that every other pollster does not see this to be the current situation, and that this divergence between Forum and everyone else is consistent and long-standing.
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Numbers don't lie, but the way we talk about numbers still matters.
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For fans of the Poll Tracker, don't fret. I've agreed to keep it running through to the next federal election (which is looking sooner rather than later). A new-and-improved version will be launched soon — I'll be holding off on updates until it's ready.
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Thanks to the CBC for giving me the opportunity and thanks to all of you for following my work since I launched ThreeHundredEight some 13 years ago. I'm really looking forward to the next phase. Stay tuned!
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It's being reported that Annamie Paul will announce her resignation as leader of the federal Greens later today. Here is how support for the Green Party has looked over the last seven elections.
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All this to say, I'm not sure I agree with the narrative I've seen that Canadians are ready to move on and governments should act or are acting accordingly. Canadians are still uneasy, but less afraid than they once were. Steady approach still seems like the winner.
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The Ontario Poll Tracker (coming soon!) currently gives the PCs 78-98 seats, against 15-28 for the NDP and 3-25 for the Liberals. Popular vote estimate now is 44.8% PC, 25.1% LIB, 24.1% NDP, chance of PC victory if an election were held today is 98%.
#onpoli
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My plan was to file tonight on the Conservative results so that folks in B.C. and Alberta could read before going to bed. Now, I'll be writing for ex-pats in South Korea.
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Aside from adding Telford to the list of must-resign-or-else, Blanchet's threat of trying to force an election is pretty much the same as the one he made three weeks ago.
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Elections Canada is reporting turnout now of 61.4% (unofficial), which at least is no longer historically low. It was 58.8% in 2008 and 61.1% in 2011. It'll keep ticking up as more mail ballots are counted, but probably won't catch the 68% and 67% of the last two elections.
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When Ontario’s election results were in, everyone was thinking the same thing: what if we used Baden-Württemberg’s electoral system instead? Wonder no more!
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If the Greens are expecting a "leader's courtesy" for their new leader Annamie Paul, it would be a reasonable request if one of their three MPs resigned to make way for Paul.
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New poll from MQO Research gives the Greens 40%, to 29% for the PCs and 26% for the Liberals.
#peipoli
#PEIVotes2019
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Oh hey, look what's back:
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Probably one of the worst polls for the Liberals I’ve seen in years.
Brand new
@abacusdataca
#cdnpoli
poll out:
🔵 CPC 38%
🔴 LPC 28%
🟠 NDP 18%
Conservatives ahead in Ontario and tied with Liberals in Atlantic Canada.
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Very curious to see the first polling including the People's Party. Now the most important question: what colour to assign the party in my charts?
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Very excited that the Canada Poll Tracker has now launched! Bookmark it, as it will be updated regularly from here on to Oct. 21! We have hopes of adding to it as we approach the election, too. You can also find it at .
#cdnpoli
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This campaign, let's not do the thing where we ignore every other poll out there when a new poll comes out.
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Poll Tracker updated, with close race between the Liberals and Conservatives, NDP and Bloc gains, holding.
#cdnpoli
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Pollsters didn't call cell phones in the early 1860s, so we can't really trust those numbers.
Wow, highest Poll Numbers in the history of the Republican Party. That includes Honest Abe Lincoln and Ronald Reagan. There must be something wrong, please recheck that poll!
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Individual contributors in Q2:
36,804 - Poilievre
5,523 - Lewis
4,191 - Charest
4,171 - Baber
1,358 - Brown
1,081 - Aitchison
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Where Canada's provinces and regions would rank among Democratic states in the 2020 presidential election. Full analysis:
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The plurality of Canadians still want to take a cautious approach, while a majority are either cautious or want to keep restrictions in place.
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The Canada Poll Tracker has been updated. The Conservatives have ticked down to their lowest level since Erin O'Toole became leader at the end of August.
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Trudeau lost his majority, Singh lost half his caucus. So there's plenty of reason to be disgruntled, but instead Liberal/NDP voters are quite happy to stick with their guys. Scheer gained seats and votes, but Conservatives are split. That seems significant.
Leadership litmus test: Conservative voters evenly divided over whether Scheer should stay or go
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Further proof that Ontarians think Canada is Ontario.
We’ve noticed some people on our website trying to apply to vote in Ontario’s provincial election.
We only administer federal elections.
Please visit for information about the election in Ontario.
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Let's re-cap.
Jan. 24 - Patrick Brown allegations emerge, makes statement.
Jan. 25 - Brown resigns.
Feb. 15 - Reports that Brown didn't technically resign, squashed by Brown.
Feb. 16 - Brown booted from PC caucus, runs for leadership.
Feb. 26 - Brown withdraws from leadership.
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Hands up if your first computer was a Commodore 64 and you knew how to program in Basic.
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Are the stronger numbers for the PPC hurting the Conservatives? Maybe. But according to Abacus, the PPC is actually doing better among 2019 Green and non-voters. It's a bit more nuanced than PPC=would-be-CPC.
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Requesting it from the Liberals in a Liberal seat would be completely out of step with the convention. Requesting it of the NDP is another matter, since it isn't an NDP seat to begin with.
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The response rate of dead registered voters is quite low.
Trump says you can't do fair polls of registered voters, only likely voters, because many registered voters have died.
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And here it is:
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Being flabbergasted that the pandemic might last well into next year is the new being flabbergasted that it might last into the summer (i.e. now). Stop being surprised, people. This will take awhile.
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The debate commissioner has decided not to invite Maxime Bernier of the People's Party or Jay Hill of the Maverick Party to the debate because they didn't meet the 4% threshold in an average of polls. Here's the chart from the commission:
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By a margin of 72-20, Liberal voters said a LIB+NDP agreement would make them happy over upset, while it was 73-21 for NDP voters. Out of all the options tested, this was the most popular outcome for NDP voters. Liberals, obvs, wanted a majority.
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When you've watched everything on Netflix...
Looking for a self-isolation activity? Our political finance database is a great way to explore campaign expenditure and annual statements from Ontario’s political entities. Take a look for yourself!
#ONpoli
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I don't think I've seen a poll before this one from Nanos that had Steven Del Duca ahead of Andrea Horwath on preferred premier.
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This appears to be the final tally of candidates for the major parties. Here's how it compares to past elections.
I don't like to kick a party when it's down, but the Greens missing 86 candidates is really a big failure for what's supposed to be a national party.
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The Poll Tracker has been updated. And look who's on the board now.
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Ontario's chief electoral officer suggests that voters would be better served to have less information and less of an idea of what is happening during an election campaign. A less-informed voter is not a better voter.
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Ontario Poll Tracker updated, with the NDP's odds of winning the most seats now more than 1 in 5. Odds of PC majority now a coin toss.
#onpoli
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By my count, if every PPC vote would have gone Conservative instead, Bernier cost the Conservatives seven seats (six went with the Liberals, one the NDP).
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Someone smarter than me should run the probability of three independent random sample surveys all returning the result of 30.7% for the Liberals.
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It was divided when
@Pollara
asked who Canadians felt was the greatest prime minister. Not so much on who was the greatest opposition leader.
Full results:
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Yes, the polls just published as I uploaded my latest projections will be added. Gimme a minute.
#sheesh
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Conservative MP Joël Godin still thinking of leaving the party, potentially being part of a new one, if Poilievre wins.
Course à la direction conservatrice | Réflexions et défections à prévoir en cas de victoire de Pierre Poilievre
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Granted, the 32% is an all-time high and there has been a big recent jump. But we shouldn't be suggesting that a majority of Canadians are ready to dump restrictions.
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I have a new project that I am working on that I'm really excited about, and I can't wait to share more about it soon. Watch this space for more.
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Once again, I’ll point out that Forum Research’s federal polls are the only ones to show such significantly high support for the Conservatives. Having them 10+ points above every other poll, and not for the 1st time, should raise serious questions about the methodology.
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There should be a name for the special kind of shame you feel when you are fooled into clicking on a promoted tweet.
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My pet peeve: riding names that give you no indication of where they are geographically located.
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Just a totally normal shape for a district in the U.S.
Richmond's departure will also trigger the first special election of the 117th Congress! His
#LA02
had a pre-2020 partisan lean of D+52. There will be a jungle primary and likely a runoff between two Dems.
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A poll by Research Co. done shortly after the election found that a "formal governing agreement" between the Liberals and NDP was the most popular option with 44% saying it would make them very/moderately happy, vs. 45% very/moderately upset. Next was a Liberal minority (42-48).
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My view: this was the best debate of the three debates for both O’Toole and Singh, I think O’Toole went largely unscathed and did a good job staying on message. Singh was also effective in going after Trudeau for progressive voters who might have doubts about Trudeau.
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Federal Poll Tracker updated, with Liberals holding lead over Conservatives and odds of majority increasing.
#cdnpoli
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Will the Conservatives lose the next election because their leadership announcement had huge issues? No. But if these events really didn't matter at all, they would have just put out a press release with the result.
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The movement toward the PPC with Charest as leader is a suggestion of the kind of voter Poilievre keeps in the CPC fold, and hints at the challenge Poilievre will have in keeping them in the fold during a campaign while also trying to appeal to a centrist swing voter.
New
@abacusdataca
poll on
#cdnpoli
:
CPC 33
LPC 31
NDP 19
We also test hypothetical ballots w/
@PierrePoilievre
and
@JeanCharest_
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Regional vote share in Alberta:
Calgary: 49.3% NDP, 48.2% UCP
Edmonton: 62.7% NDP, 34.6% UCP
Rest of AB: 63.3% UCP, 32.3%
(Calgary and Edmonton results are in the city limits, not the CMA)
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About to get started on the final update to the Presidential Poll Tracker (the one that I will be reminded of for the next four years). See you on the other side!
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What's the most Canadian province?
Alberta
685
New Brunswick
1873
Saskitoba
1070
Toronto
1418
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