Dr Thomas Smith 🔥🌏
@DrTELS
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Assoc Prof @LSEGeography env change & sustainability🌏 wildfire emissions & models @UKFDRS 🔥 tropical peat @Inter_PEAT 🌴 innovative climate edu👨🎓 #firstgen
London, UK
Joined April 2011
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Pinned Tweet
Today I gave a webinar for
@sentinel_hub
tying together some research I did on Arctic fires in 2020 with research by others published since the unprecedented wildfires of 2019 & 2020. Returning to this analysis reminded me of just how dangerous things are getting... [1/7]
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Things began to look very unusual two months ago.
Today the charts need no commentary, they speak for themselves.
This is the Atlantic.
This is so unusual. That's a *huge* amount of energy being transferred to the atmosphere. Expect extreme temperature and storm records. Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere. I'm very concerned for later this year into 2024.
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A complete shutdown of cold water ocean upwelling off the coast of Peru is the sign of a strong impending El Niño... It was along this coast that the phrase was first coined by colonial Spanish fishermen. This is a huge anomaly.
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Parts of the North Sea are >6°C warmer than usual for this time of the year. It's probably the most anomalously warm body of water on the planet.
There are severe storm warnings in place for much of Western Europe... [1/2]
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Today, there are ox bow lakes in the sky. A river is driven by gravity. The polar jet stream is driven by the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. That difference is getting smaller. And like a river, the jet stream meanders. [1/5]
@cambecc
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But what is weird about this anomaly is that the cooling of the western pacific isn't happening yet... The whole ocean is abnormally warm... so is the Atlantic. What this means for El Niño, & the global weather teleconnections is uncertain to say the least. This isn't good news.
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I wonder what it will take for these Indonesian fires to get mass media attention? Thousands of fires, smoke plumes the size of France, tens of millions exposed to hazardous smoke, & the loss of crucial carbon stores. The Tenerife fires have had more coverage!
Today's image:
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This is so unusual. That's a *huge* amount of energy being transferred to the atmosphere. Expect extreme temperature and storm records. Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere. I'm very concerned for later this year into 2024.
Breaking News!
After spiking upwards to 21.04°C on April 23, global 60S-60N sea surface temperatures reached a new all-time high of 4.69σ above the 1982-2011 mean of 20.34°C, making the current SST anomaly a 1-in-740,000 event.
Will SST reach 5σ? Stay tuned.
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I should at least explain that the blue lines are every other year in the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature record. The red line is this year. It may not seem like much of a temperature divergence, but the top few metres of the oceans store as much energry as our entire atmosphere
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'Limits to Growth' was published in 1972.
Using the World3 computer model to simulate Earth & human system interactions, it predicted societal collapse to begin around about, err, now.
50 years on, World3 was updated with the latest input data.
It gave the same answer. Oh joy!
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I've said it before and I'll say it again:
"This is a *huge* amount of extra energy being transferred to the atmosphere. Expect extreme temperatures and storm records (again). Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere."
[1/3]
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The oceans have clearly been absorbing a lot of excess energy and hiding it from us for a few years now. This looks like payback time.
A massive redistribution of that energy and I don't think we can really forecast what it will mean. We are in uncharted territory.
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"Poison": How much cyanide in a glass of water will kill you? 20%? 10%... No, it's 0.0003% (3 ppm).
This idea that 0.042% (420 ppm) of CO2 in our atmosphere (up 140 ppm in 150 years) must be harmless is simple stupidity & damn right ignorance of basic science.
CO2 isn't a poison. It's plant food! We need to challenge the climate change nonsense!
#ticetake
#climatechange
#co2
#plantfood
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The UK & Ireland are at the epicentre of a warming event that is affecting every ocean on the planet. To the west (where most of our weather is from) is the largest expanse of anomalously warm water on Earth, & to the east is the North Sea, experiencing an extreme marine heatwave
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The global oceans are presenting us with nothing short of a Black Swan Event.
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This tweet went viral & made the news in June 2023, two months after my first concerns about sea surface temperatures.
7 months have passed since then & the North Atlantic has now spent 321 consecutive days breaking daily SST records (see next tweet from
@LeonSimons8
)
[1/2]
Things began to look very unusual two months ago.
Today the charts need no commentary, they speak for themselves.
This is the Atlantic.
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So I spent yesterday evening having a quiet night in. At around 11 pm I began to smell smoke *inside my flat*.
I went out to investigate…
This is a somewhat angry (but evidence-based) wood-burning thread.
*trigger warning* for urban wood-burners!
#WoodBurning
🔥💨🧵 [1/n]
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@enkidu360
Climate modelling focuses on longer periods of time and average conditions. They are not well-equipped to forecast decadal variability. There is essentially a gap in our predictive capabilities between a couple of months ahead and 30 years ahead.
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Bloody hell! This is a forecast for
#StormCiar
án on Thursday morning. Another storm, following
#StormBabet
centred over the UK, forecasted to bring 90 mph gusts to the south coast, & powerful easterly gales to the eastern coast of Scotland for the second time in a fortnight.
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Europe was hot yesterday.
Like mostly 10°C warmer than usual hot.
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There's a chance that the
#aurora
tonight could be even more active than last night for the UK & mainland Europe. Geomagnetic activity at all three of the UK's monitoring stations are indicating an *extreme* storm (G5). Yesterday was *severe* (G4).
[1/4] Read on for more info...
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I thought twice, maybe three times before describing these fires as "alarming" to
@NatureNews
. But I stand by it. I'm worried.
@ClimateHuman
The Arctic is burning like never before — and that’s bad news for climate change
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I *hope* we're not crossing tipping points. We might not know for some time and & we may not know in our lifetimes. But it's very hard to look at these data & not be very worried. The past three days are *likely* to have been the warmest on our planet since records began. [1/3]
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A NASA satellite sensor has been measuring the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth since 1997. This number has increased by ~2 W/m² in the past 10 years. What does that look like? Well it's like turning on football floodlighting for the whole planet 24/7 all-year-round...
I'm wondering whether people reading this have any understanding of what this 2.3 W/m² of additionally absorbed sunlight actually means?
Q: Do you (e.g. Americans?) even know how large square meter is? A: 1 meter by 1 meter.
Q: Or how many square meters the Earth surface has? A:
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What are tipping points?
They are processes whereby a system experiences a shift in state when a threshold in its conditions (caused by forcing) is breached. The shift is relatively rapid & if you reverse the forcing, the system does not return to its earlier state.
[1/n]
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The North Sea is the most anomalously warm body of open water on Earth today
@NOAA
have classed it as a Category 4 (extreme) marine heat wave. What does this mean?
- nutrient & oxygen disruption
- disruption of marine food webs
- harm to fisheries
- extreme weather downwind
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I will keep replying to the deniers until I drop. Looking for moral support here!
The oceans have clearly been absorbing a lot of excess energy and hiding it from us for a few years now. This looks like payback time.
A massive redistribution of that energy and I don't think we can really forecast what it will mean. We are in uncharted territory.
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Almost unbelievable UK
#heatwave
forecast next Sunday 4 pm. 41°C (106°F) in London, 43°C (109°F) across Surrey. If this GFS forecast turns out to be accurate, it will smash records & it will kill people. The UK has never recorded a temperature in the 40s & *is not ready* for it!
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@nintendobenzo
@_ppmv
I'm sorry to say, but that question has been posed for 30+ years and the answer has been simple, cut down GHG emissions. This spike in ocean temperatures will only lead to a more volatile atmosphere. Extreme weather should be expected and prepared for.
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I can't believe what I'm seeing here. This is horrific. The UK has *never* seen wildfires like this before. These look to be multiple wildland fires that have spread into urban areas. Unprecedented loss of buildings, I just hope no one has been hurt.
BREAKING: The London Fire Brigade has declared a major incident in response to the surge in fires across the capital as temperatures exceed 40C.
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
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- Domestic solid fuel burning is now the largest source of UK particulate pollution, overtaking traffic
- Government monitoring networks are not designed for static suburban pollution sources
- Citizen science is filling the gaps
[1/4]
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Source of wind maps here:
Source of anomaly figure here:
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A short clarification as this tweet took off unexpectedly...
The fishermen were almost certainly not Spanish, but were Spanish-speaking. There is no evidence of earlier indigenous words for this phenomenon.
Peru has already declared a "coastal El Niño".
Thanks
@DrGeorgeAdamson
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For context, oceans between 60N and 60S have been around 0.15C above the previous record for two and a half months! I'm not sure if anyone else has calculated this, but using the Stefan-Boltzmann Law & lots of rounding, that's ~ an extra 975 TW of energy passed to the atmosphere.
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Earth's energy balance is out of kilter:
During 2020-23, Earth accumulated ~68 zettajoules (ZJ) of energy.
During 2007-10, Earth accumulated ~28 ZJ.
The extra energy gained by Earth in the past three years is similar to the amount gained between 1970 & 1985.
[1/5]
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A short thread on why the
@WSJOpinion
&
@BjornLomborg
are so wrong to use global burnt area datasets to build a strawman argument.
1) Global burnt area according to 20+ year satellite records is going down, we know that.
[🧵🔥1/11]...
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These Arctic fires have been burning for over a month now. This thread takes a closer look at what might have caused these fires, what exactly is burning, & why we should be concerned... [🛰️images are from the same location in the Sakha Republic, Russia🇷🇺, 65–70°N]
[THREAD 1/9]
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Here's the global context so you can compare the North Sea anomaly with the rest of the world. Only the Sea of Japan has a similarly extreme anomaly.
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There is serious concern among some scientists of an underestimated "termination shock" from the reduction of ship SO2 pollution. *If* it's as big as they suggest, it'll be the biggest crisis since the ozone hole & would require immediate mitigation. Urgent research needed?
All monthly records are being broken simultaneously.
🌍🌡📈June surface air temperatures will be highest on record.
🌊🌡📈Global Sea Surface Temperatures will be record high.
🧊➡️🌊Global Sea Ice will be record low.
This is not normal!
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Important, this visualisation was made by
@EliotJacobson
More details here:
Are you paying attention yet?
The North Atlantic SST anomaly on June 8 was 1.04°C above the 1982-2023 mean.
For those keeping track, that's 3.56σ, or 1-in-5400.
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The world's worst air pollution crisis is happening right now across Kalimantan & Sumatra, Indonesia 🇮🇩
According to our monitoring network, PM2.5 is at a 24-hr average of around 300 µg/m^3 (hazardous AQI of 350), 1-hr averages peaking at 750 (above the AQI max)
A thread 🧵 [1/n]
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Uncharted territory.
The oceans have clearly been absorbing a lot of excess energy and hiding it from us for a few years now. This looks like payback time.
A massive redistribution of that energy and I don't think we can really forecast what it will mean. We are in uncharted territory.
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Heatwave & drought in China, not covered widely by western media. Here's a wildfire burning on the outskirts of Chongqing (population: 31 million), with a smoke plume covering half of the city. Wider view (400 km across) shows a comparison with a more typical year. 🇨🇳🔥🛰️
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#StormBabet
is *very* unusual because the strong gale force winds are from the *east*, rather than prevailing storm winds in the UK that come from the west or southwest. I wonder if it will break a record for winds from this direction?
Quick thread on UK storm risk🧵 [1/4]
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This wildfire complex in Quebec is merging & the burnt area is now at ~1,500,000 hectares. That's the size of Northern Ireland or the State of Connecticut.
Image from 25 June 2023, animation in the next tweet...
🇨🇦🔥🛰️
#Quebecfires
#CanadaWildfires
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@bigcarbonprints
@mike808
so what is causing the trend then, if it isn't the +50% change in CO2 and the doubling of methane?
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@LBHF
@DefraUKAir
@Lizcollins777
@walshpatrick95
@andyslaughtermp
I know it's the festive season & I don't want to be a Grinch, but the height of the chimney is below that of the housing opposite. In the flat above me is a toddler with asthma, & the people working in the pub will have chronic exposure to a known carcinogen.
[10/n]
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For anyone else confused about where the North Sea is. Part of it is that dark maroon blob that is off the temperature anomaly scale bar.
One of the most severe marine heatwaves on Earth has developed off the coast of Ireland and the UK, with water temperatures as high as 4-5°C above normal.
NOAA's Marine Heatwave Watch has categorized this event as a Category 4 (extreme) marine heatwave.
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That's a full year of daily global Sea Surface Temperature records.
366 consecutive daily records.
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I think we are on course for 2023 to be the warmest year on record, especially if El Niño emerges as forecast. Antarctic sea-ice is way-off despite its usual resilience to lower-latitude warming. The sea-surface temperature anomaly is growing.
🟥Red flags need attention. [1/3]
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I'll re-stress, the signs suggest El Niño, but the unusual global situation might mean that the El Niño (which is about an E-W differential in temperatures, not absolute temperatures) fails to develop or is weak... Better thread on this here:
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Why does this matter? High pressure systems get stuck in the meanders & can persist for many weeks. In the summer that means heatwaves and prolonged dry spells. Here's the temperature anomaly 3-week forecast for the NH. Check out NW Canada stuck in one of those meanders 🇨🇦
[2/5]
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Here's a nice explainer
@weatherchannel
on why a wavy jetstream can lead to hot and cold extremes. This animation shows the usual cyclic progression from wavy to less wavy. The current situation (in the first tweet) is beyond wavy.
[4/5]
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@LBHF
@DefraUKAir
@Lizcollins777
@walshpatrick95
@andyslaughtermp
Domestic wood burning accounted for 25% of UK PM2.5 emissions in 2020. This has increased by 35% between 2010 & 2020. It is now the single-biggest source of small particle air pollution in the UK, exceeding that of road traffic.
[11/n]
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@LBHF
@DefraUKAir
The open fire in this pub emits ~4,000x more PM2.5 than a gas boiler (per MWh energy produced), equivalent to almost every dwelling (4,910) in my council Ward (Ravenscourt Park) & 22x more polluting than the 180 gas-heated flats on my estate *combined* (downwind today).
[8/n]
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Well, I appear to have inadvertently trolled the whole of twitter with this thread & I'm struggling to sleep. I apologise to the people mentioned. It was never my intention to stir up such hatred. I'm considering leaving. At least the 'likes' outnumber the abuse, but only just.
So I spent yesterday evening having a quiet night in. At around 11 pm I began to smell smoke *inside my flat*.
I went out to investigate…
This is a somewhat angry (but evidence-based) wood-burning thread.
*trigger warning* for urban wood-burners!
#WoodBurning
🔥💨🧵 [1/n]
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@enkidu360
Yes.
A good analogy
@flimsin
once taught me:
If you toss a coin, you can't predict the outcome, there's a 50:50 chance (uncertainty is max), but if you toss a coin 30 times, you can more confidently say that there will be close to half heads and half tails, with less uncertainty.
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*Important fact*: The top 2.5 m of the world's oceans has the equivalent heat capacity of the entire atmosphere.
There is no let-up in the global sea-surface temperature anomaly & it's no surprise that atmospheric temperatures are responding dramatically.
#ClimateCrisis
[1/6]
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This is a temperature ANOMALY map, where some parts of Siberia, NW of Lake Baikal, and Kazakhstan are up to 20°C warmer than the 1981-2010 mean temperature. Unusual fire activity once again in Siberia:
Some high smoke aerosol optical depth & wide area of active
#wildfires
in Siberian Federal District (from Omsk-Irkutsk) Russia as seen by latest
#Copernicus
Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecast & GFAS data &
#AquaMODIS
🛰️ imagery
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'As chaotic as Van Gogh'
@ScienceAlert
@MichaelEMann
I resisted the temptation to use 'kinky'.
[5/5]
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New spatial analysis of wildfires across the Arctic in May/June 2020, and how they compare to the satellite record (2003-2020). What is burning? Are there peat fires? What about permafrost? 🔥🛰️thread in collab with
@m_parrington
@CopernicusECMWF
#ArcticFires
[1/9]
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"I'm not aware of a similar period when all components of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory"
This is what I mean by "all components of the climate system"... [🧵1/n]
@GeorginaRannard
@BBCNews
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@NiusMarco
@ClimateHuman
@GretaThunberg
"The ocean absorbs excess heat from Earth’s system, acting to balance excess heat from rising global temperatures. Scientists have determined that the ocean absorbs more than 90 percent of the excess heat, which is attributed to greenhouse gas emissions."
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This really is urgent. Action is needed *NOW* & it needs to be of Manhattan Project/Landing on the Moon speed & scale.
[2/3]
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#ArcticFires
: I'm getting lots of queries about what exactly is burning in the
#ArcticHeatWave
(is it the boreal forest? is it tundra? are the fires on peatlands?) Here's some original analysis using fire hotspots, a land cover map, and a peatland map. Results in next tweet [1/4]
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Don't get muddled up between air temperature & surface temperature
@BBCNewsnight
. Air temperatures will not reach 60°C in Athens. Surface temperatures might. These are highly dependent on land cover & variable even between buildings. It misleads on an important story.
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And this inevitably leads to more fire-conducive conditions. Read more about this here
@climate
@daniellebochove
:
[3/5]
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UK friends & others in northerly latitudes: I highly recommend going somewhere dark tonight.
This is the strongest solar storm in 20 years.
There are clear skies for most of the UK.
A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see
#aurora
for many.
[1/6] Want to know more... Read on
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@LBHF
@DefraUKAir
I will be complaining to the
@LBHF
Air Quality Team, my local councillors (
@lizcollins777
&
@walshpatrick95
), & my MP
@andyslaughtermp
(AGAIN). *Again*, because this is not the first time that I've complained about the pub (see this email from February, this year).
[9/n]
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@LBHF
I had a very good idea where this smoke was coming from. After a short walk upwind from my flat, I headed to the pub on the opposite side of the road from my estate (& not for a pint!) They were burning wood on an open fire. This is illegal (more details below).
[3/n]
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@LBHF
@DefraUKAir
@Lizcollins777
@walshpatrick95
@andyslaughtermp
@drkrischan
@IQAir
@RuthNewportWest
@AdamDKHarrison
Finally, wood-burning is not a 'green' alternative to fossil fuels. Burning wood rapidly releases CO2, when the wood carbon might otherwise slowly decompose or be stored. It's also less carbon-efficient than other energy sources:
@dsawsp
[17/17]
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@fjfaase
I've been lazy tonight, this was produced by
@EliotJacobson
. There is a link to the raw data in that tweet.
Apologies Eliot. It's been a busy long week.
Are you paying attention yet?
The North Atlantic SST anomaly on June 8 was 1.04°C above the 1982-2023 mean.
For those keeping track, that's 3.56σ, or 1-in-5400.
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WTF is up with ocean surface temperature anomalies? This worries me a lot. shades of red = warmer than average, shades of blue (which are almost non-existent!) = cooler than average.
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Thank you to those with thoughtful replies about the importance of tackling a global crisis. Today my grandmother died. I was there, and this was a distraction. Sometimes there are moments when personal moments matter more. But if I'm to be a grandfather, we need to come together
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Daily timelapse
@NASAEarth
image (110 km wide) showing the spread of this large wildfire in Quebec. In two weeks it has burnt over 2,500 km² (250,000 ha), about the size of Rhode Island, Dorset, or twice the area of Central London.
🔥🛰️🇨🇦
🧵[1/4]
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@cathyslifeSP
@nintendobenzo
@_ppmv
Complete nonsense in that tweet.
Pre-industrial CO2 was 280, now it's 420 (we have contributed far more than 3%)
As for CO2 being insignificant. O3 is 10-times less prevalent in our atmosphere than CO2 and saves all life on land from DNA destroying UV radiation. Let that sink in!
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Sorry that image was from a week ago, when things were bad. They're worse now, especially in Sumatra. Here's today's image. Just goes to show how little attention this is getting. Things have been bad for weeks.
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Animation showing the past 40 days of wildfires surrounding Sydney, burning through the forests of the Blue Mountains. There might not be much left to burn by the end of the summer.
#NSWfires
#sydneyfires
@NASAEarth
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This is a
#wildfire
near the China-Russia 🇨🇳🇷🇺 border inside
#AmurOblast
(49.4N 129.7E) 7 May '20. The fire is ~15 x 10 km. This beautiful image demonstrates the power of 'false-colour' composites for visualising satellite data. What does it show? [🛰️Remote Sensing THREAD: 1/6]
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@scragwalker
@ClimateHuman
@GretaThunberg
This is an observation record. There's literally thousands of reconstructions showing the the pace and the causes of what's happening now are unique. It's not hard to find!
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@LBHF
In front of the council flats & student accommodation, the sensor measured PM2.5 at 60 µg/m3 (unhealthy for everyone, increasing risk of aggravation to the heart & lungs). On the walkway in front of my flat it was 45 µg/m3 (unhealthy for sensitive groups, e.g. asthmatics).
[5/n]
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This post meant to communicate an unusual weather pattern. It triggered 100s of unwarranted replies reflecting climate denialist insecurities:
- "projection" of cognitive bias coloring interpretation
- feelings of a threat to their identity/ideology
- distancing/distrust
@KHayhoe
Europe was hot yesterday.
Like mostly 10°C warmer than usual hot.
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@LBHF
@DefraUKAir
@Lizcollins777
@walshpatrick95
@andyslaughtermp
@drkrischan
@IQAir
@RuthNewportWest
@AdamDKHarrison
Domestic sources of PM2.5 in cities were all-but eradicated by the Clean Air Act 1956 & the transition to gas/electric heating in the 1960s/70s. This regressive trend for (arguably unnecessary) wood burning in urban areas is negating that progress.
[16/n]
In a decade we have re-reversed where we find poor air quality in cities.
[left] Hammersmith Broadway Bus Station, relatively clean air, windows open.
[right] Estate with no through traffic, but downwind of people illegally burning wood.
Photos taken within 10 mins of each other.
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In a decade we have re-reversed where we find poor air quality in cities.
[left] Hammersmith Broadway Bus Station, relatively clean air, windows open.
[right] Estate with no through traffic, but downwind of people illegally burning wood.
Photos taken within 10 mins of each other.
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Northern hemisphere extratropical temperature records & heatwaves are making global news right now (Europe, China, Canada).
But check out the tropics...
Yet another substantial anomalous departure from the norm for this time of year...
[1/2]
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@LBHF
The rules about what you can & cannot burn, & in what appliances, aren't well-communicated. However, once you find them, both
@DefraUKAir
& the council's websites state that wood must be burned in 'exempt appliances' (e.g. a Defra-approved log burner), not on open fires.
[7/n]
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@Hwells28
The past:
- Medieval Britain life expectancy: 31.3 years.
- People who died in London's great smog of 1952 (due to solid fuel burning): 10,000-12,000.
The 'modern problem':
- Single-biggest source of PM pollution in the UK today: domestic solid fuel burning (worse than traffic).
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This small Greek island (Rhodes, 140,000 ha) will be top of the news today because of a tiny minority of relatively rich people evacuating from holidays. I can't help but compare it with the lives & homes lost elsewhere in the world & the 'inconvenience' of
@JustStop_Oil
protests
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Tropical rainforests are one of the few biomes on our planet where we should *not* expect fires.
🔥
This image (3000 km across) reveals a pattern of human destruction; every road & waterway through the forest is illuminated by fire tendrils in stark contrast to the intact forest.
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