David Owens
@DrDOwens
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Dad, Doctor, Honorary Clinical Assistant Professor Family Medicine HKU, Co-founder OT&P. Views forged by two great port cities but remain my own. Hong Kong YNWA
Hong Kong
Joined May 2010
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Hong Kong has amongst the highest Covid mortality rates in the world post availability of vaccines. Why?
A: HK prioritised performative politics over science
Will HK hold a public enquiry?
A: Apparently not
Why not?
A: politics
An inquiry 🧵in 25 tweets
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I have written extensively on Covid over the last 2 years but will sign off the year with a picture because a thousand words is nowhere near enough to describe my frustration at this utterly predictable preventable catastrophe
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Hong Kong is a special place
IMO nowhere in the world can match the diversity of country parks, mountain trails and island beaches so close to such a vibrant city
Happy New Year
Here’s hoping 2024 brings a bit more peace love and understanding
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HK has amongst the highest mortality rates in the world in the last year despite the following:
Universal mask mandate
Border control
PCR testing
LHS
Gathering limits indoors + outdoors
CTN RTD
Closure of BBQ pits
Etc
Q: Why?
A: These are all NPI’s
An explanatory🧵
1/6
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Covid vaccines introduced in HK on 26 Feb 2021
Covid deaths per million people since this date
Hong Kong 1258
UK 846
Singapore 263
We are different to other countries
Post vaccine access we have the highest mortality in the developed world other than the US
Q (BBG): Given low deaths and critical cases, why should the govt and HK people be worried; same situation everywhere like Singapore?
Lo Chung-mau: "We are different from other countries. We are glad we are different."
(Then ignores Singapore completely and talks about the UK.)
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“We have managed to keep Hong Kong safe in the last two years and will continue to do so”
Have I entered another parallel universe?
More than 6.5K extra deaths than Singapore. Thats over 15 Jumbo jets of mostly poor and vulnerable people who are definitely not safer
Q (BBG): Almost 60 flight bans this year. Shortage of DQH rooms. Biz community not happy. Any plans to remedy this?
CL: Flight route suspension mechanism is staying. We're finding more rooms though.
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'Not Lying Flat'
Definition:
A slogan used in Hong Kong to justify a series of arbitrary unscientific and theatrical Covid policies which ultimately harmed the population they claimed to protect
Rhetoric used to justify population control
See also gaslighting + disinformation
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As a doctor I have a duty to act in the interests of my patients and the community
This is the advice I am giving to my patients.
RAT +ve tests should isolate at home for 5 days OR until a negative RAT whichever is the latter
In English and Chinese
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Hong Kong syndrome:
A psychological response characterised by progressive desensitisation to damaging public health regulations
Presents with irrational euphoria in response to potential relaxation of restricted civil rights regardless of ongoing harm to the young + vulnerable
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Continuing to ignore the negative consequences of public health policy
Current border controls with hotel quarantine + flight bans are actively damaging public health in our city by damaging both the economy + the trust which is generated through evidence-based public policy
1/3
Follow-up by
@racporter
: So why didn't you announce it last night then?
Dr Au: Because it was decided in the evening. We were still investigating the cases. This takes time.
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In my latest article I ask what next for the HK covid strategy?
The current situation in HK is predictable, preventable and political
We face a similar choice for our next major strategic decision
Science or politics
Can we avoid the same mistakes
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Today is the thirty fifth day
of May
I thought about lighting a candle
but Im not sure
if its legal
any more
the lighting
or the thinking
the judges know
they understand thoughts
and intent
I hope I don’t meet a judge
they would surely know
that
I thought about lighting a candle
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A = Number of bankers who will visit HK for 2022 international banking conference and HK rugby 7s
B = Number of bankers who will visit HK for 2022 international banking conference without HK rugby 7s
A >>> B
Number of HK ministers who seem to understand this concept = 0
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In HK unscientific and non evidence based public health policies led to one of the highest post vaccine mortality rates in the developed world
These policies are also destroying our economy and driving away talent
They will increase not reduce future population mortality
1/6
Financial Secretary, Paul Chan:
• HK on track for 2nd worst deficit on record
• might be HK$100 billion in the red
• only beaten by 2020's $232.5 billion deficit
• almost double what was announced in February's budget estimate
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There is no justification for general mask mandates or vaccine pass in HK at this stage of pandemic
Agree on the potential dangers of the flu season. We should educate and encourage vaccination
Using influenza to justify ongoing restrictions is a dangerous overreach
1/5
Expert Advisory Panel member, Ivan Hung:
• flu season may be worse than Covid; low v high vax rates
• expects mask mandates and Vaccine Pass to last until next summer
• should relax outdoor masks first; then indoor
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Reflections on return to HK
Arrivals process smooth + ultra efficient Optimal use of technology Same with follow up PCR
Doubtful this could be bettered anywhere
Imagine if these resources + energy was put into evidence based interventions which actually benefit pop health
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A positive rapid test is >98% likely to be a true positive result. Sending these people to wait in crowded emergency departments or private clinics significantly increases the risk of transmission.
We should be sending these people home to isolate until they test negative
Hospital Authority's Dr Larry Lee: If you're suffering from mild COVID-19 like symptoms, please see a private doctor to get tested. Avoid going to the A&E as you'll spend hours in triage.
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HK is ignoring the advice of all our leading experts in Public health epidemiology + virology
Accepting that advisors advise and ministers decide it raises a question
Is there any expert medical input driving decisions or are they exclusively political?
Science is just science
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Am I living in a parallel universe?
> 30 years working and teaching in medicine in HK. Should I be relieved that I will not be jailed for advocating a science based public health policy?
Black or yellow Covid will not discriminate
Vaccinate the vulnerable. The rest is noise
The Hong Kong Government has clarified that having the opinion of "living with COVID-19" is not a breach of the National Security Law.
However, the government spokesman reiterated that "dynamic zero-Covid" is the best way forward for Hong Kong.
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Many years ago Philip, Claudia and I were neighbours
Hard to imagine a less threatening couple
I wrote this for Claudia last year and never got a chance to pass it on so I am posting it here
Sent with love and thoughts and hoping that they will be united soon👇
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Must challenge the evolving narrative that it will 'take 2-3 months to control the 5th wave'
Omicron burns in an inevitable wave which lasts 2 months
With mitigation may be 3 month burn
This is not control. Mitigation is about minimising harm. Omicron is driving this bus
1/2
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@tripperhead
No scientific justification for incremental change in quarantine with current immunity levels
Anything short of total elimination of quarantine will continue to damage population health in HK
Continuing to ignore good science in favour of bad politics
@wanderer_jasnah
@IvanHung2
@sid8998
Generally this is very good I agree
However the proposals on border policy represent unnecessary incrementalism. This is driven by politics over science.
Anything less than quarantine free travel will do more harm than good to population health
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A story that the SCMP should but will not write
Hong Kong failed because of choosing
Politics over science
Population control over individual trust
Disinformation over information
Gaslighting over education
Performative patriotism over technocratic competence
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“Hong Kong can learn from the way that the mainland has used Chinese medicine to fight the epidemic”
Returning to normal with almost 6K less deaths pro rata
Maybe Hong Kong can learn from the way that Singapore has used science and positive communication to fight the epidemic
Covid-19: Traditional Chinese medicine experts arrive to assist Hong Kong in epidemic fight
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West dogs tooth to Lantau Peak probably my very favourite Hong Kong hike
Stunning Hong Kong day
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My latest article: Not lying flat👇
'PH is about much more than Covid. Accepting the reality of the science of Covid and instituting evidence based Covid strategies which ensure that other PH functions remain fully supported is not 'lying flat'
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@tripperhead
Not sure about the definition of 'expert' but as an ultra pro vaccine family doctor with >30 years working and teaching in HK
There is no indication for the vaccination pass at any age
There is no ethical nor scientific justification to coerce or mandate vaccination in children
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Narrative around control and containment leads to poor prioritisation and allocation of resources
Testing and quarantine become performative rather than substantive
HK needs a full pivot to mitigation
Narrative is important. It drives strategy
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Congratulations to HKU virologists, epidemiologists and Public Health experts listed among the most highly cited researchers in the world in 2022
Respected internationally but mostly ignored at home
One science two systems
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In my experience the drive to protect + act in the best interests of the child has been greatest factor driving talent out of HK
The rationalisation may be NSL or Covid but ultimately talent leaves to give a better opportunity for the next generation
We have failed the children
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We failed because we chose slogans over science
We failed because we chose fealty over ability
We failed because we chose population control over education and trust
We failed because we chose disease over health experts
We are not victims the victims do not have a voice
1/2
Secretary for Health, Lo Chung-mau:
"We are the victim of our own success. We failed because we once were successful."
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A few comments on the concept of a sports bubble as suggested for HK 7s 🧵
From a public health perspective it makes no sense to have an artificial bubble within an immune population. HK should follow the science + open the borders
A few observations from a rugby doctor
1/9
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Goodbye to you 22
With a Hong Kong thought experiment
If a malign agent (presumably foreign) had infiltrated HK with these goals
1 Destroy the economy
2 Erode trust in the health system
3 World's highest Covid mortality for 2022
What would they have done differently?
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Singapore is trolling us again
The failure to hold an independent inquiry (or even admit our failings) is a further stain on Hong Kong's previous reputation for evidence based public health
In reality Hong Kong did many things very well especially pre vaccine
1/5
Singapore released a white paper regarding its Covid-19 response; here are the main points: looking back at their experience, and how they can improve their response for the next pandemic.
That Hong Kong won’t even bother to conduct a public inquiry is, honestly, shameful
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HK Covid policy: The costs of no clear strategy a 🧵
'The damage caused to population health in Hong Kong at this stage of the epidemic will be significantly greater from the economic impact of the public health measures than from the disease itself'
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Excessive focus on the risks of the disease ignores the potential impact on the rest of the population.
Pandemics aggravate the impact of social inequality.
In population terms, poverty and social inequality are the greatest drivers of poor health.
End
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Communication in HK has been poor
Policies have frequently been at odds with the science used to justify them
Recent communication includes statements objectively not based in fact
One concern for pop health in HK is long term damage to trust in Public Health institutions
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Disinformation Alert
The 'city’s fifth and most severe wave of infections' resulted from transmission within a quarantine hotel
There has been no public inquiry into this or other non evidence based policies which led to thousands of unnecessary deaths
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Will the HK Covid strategy adapt to evolving evidence?
What does Plan B look like?
In this article I ask whether we will follow the science and what a Plan B may look like
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Wonderful to see the HK 7s back
I have been involved in a medical capacity in >20 HK Rugby 7s
There have been many changes over the years as the game has become more professional
So many facets to an international sporting event
Medical support is one
A 🧵
1/11
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Last night my wife and I went out for dinner. I struck up a conversation with the waiter who was clearly nervous. We initially talked about the recycling policies of the restaurant and he became passionate about the importance of protecting the environment. He had an awkward
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@jaredwright17
I have worked as a match day doctor in international rugby.
The doctors overseeing HIA’s in the RWC are independent from the competing teams. All HIA’s are audited and reviewed on the basis of objective criteria.
Any doctor involved in cheating in this context would be guilty
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I understand the excitement but it is important to remember that this is not normal
Months of unscientific + unnecessary restrictions damaging both public health + the economy is not normal
Bringing up children in a culture of fear is not normal👇
Hong Kong syndrome:
A psychological response characterised by progressive desensitisation to damaging public health regulations
Presents with irrational euphoria in response to potential relaxation of restricted civil rights regardless of ongoing harm to the young + vulnerable
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@sid8998
@tripperhead
Agreed
Looking at the BA.4/5 transmissibility data and the immunity waning rates, trying to go to zero now would be actively harmful
Another wave is inevitable. Best option is to boost not inhibit immunity wall
Open up, vaccinate, educate and mitigate future waves
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Back on planet Hong Kong
@bencowling88
international expert in transmission dynamics of covid rates infection risk in country parks as
"lowest of low risk settings"
BUT
'His approach clashes with that of other top experts advising the government'
SCMP
HK is ignoring the advice of all our leading experts in Public health epidemiology + virology
Accepting that advisors advise and ministers decide it raises a question
Is there any expert medical input driving decisions or are they exclusively political?
Science is just science
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In a recent article I suggested that HK Covid response was performative rather than evidence based
Q Any evidence for closing beaches?
A No
Q Potential harm?
A Yes shopping malls + well-being
Perfomance or science?
Dynamic zero points for answer
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@tripperhead
Leave Home Safe was never an anti-epidemic tool
Not outdated it was never in date
Theatrical ✅
Irrelevant ✅
Ineffective ✅
Oppressive and controlling ✅
Ticks all the boxes
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HKU Modelling Report. Quick summary 🧵
1 Modelling is used to facilitate policy planning. It is not advocating a specific scenario
2 HKU has world respected disease modelling experts
3 Don’t shoot the messenger
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Damage to population health in HK at this stage of the epidemic will be significantly greater from the economic impact of the public health measures than from the disease itself
In HK we have ignored even predictable consequences of irrational policies. Many unknown unknowns
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The strategy that must not be named
'an attempt to walk a tight rope, balancing on the one side, science and evidence, and on the other a political constituency seemingly unable to understand the most basic concepts of biology'
My latest HK update 👇
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@mbrookerhk
Not sure about sanity
Maybe not the same degree of insanity
Vaccinated HK resident PCR -ve on arrival is many times less likely to have Covid than anyone in HK
Why is a tax paying HK resident not entitled to return home and be treated = any HKer ?
No scientific rationale
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Final word from
@tripperhead
(man has he both earned it and nailed it) 👇
With thanks to the sane voice’s raging in the asylum
@bencowling88
@wanderer_jasnah
@sid8998
@kjoules
@KarenGrepin
@world_epidemic
et al
I am so tired of this nonsense
The removal of a 950+ day mask mandate with a "we're scrapping it in 17 hours" is the perfect finale to what has been a nonsensical, aberrant, no roadmap three years of pandemic response in Hong Kong.
If nothing else, you've kept me busy for 36 months.
If nothing else.
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Even by their normal standards of gaslighting and misinformation this is a doozy from SCMP
Surely the duty of parents is to act in the best interests of their children
As w other HK policies vaccine pass will do nothing for community protection + will harm not benefit children
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I sense a subtle shift in the HK Covid strategy
Not exactly a pivot
More a hope that if we change direction slowly enough nobody will notice we are sailing in the opposite direction
Why did HK not distribute RAT widely
A: Transfers agency to individuals
A pivot too far ?
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Three explicit criteria:
1 Risk/threat to hospital system
2 Impact on economy/population well being
3 Consistency of policy
Impact if remove outdoor masks
1 Zero
2 Positive impact on both
3 Nil: HK policy is consistently unscientific and damaging to population health
Under Secretary for Health, Dr Libby Lee, on the seemingly contradictory message that masks are still needed outdoors & at all times when not eating/drinking in public places, but allowing masks off at meetings/weddings for 📸:
• manageable risk, won't impact healthcare system
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Risk of Covid in HK is now higher than in the 'high risk countries'
We do more testing than most but risk is going in one direction. Time for a more evidence based and rational approach to border controls as part of our transition to mitigation
Agreed,
@bencowling88
Of course the population risk of the 3% imported cases is effectively zero due to border quarantine whereas increasingly the local cases are unlinked
The incidence of Covid will likely be higher in HK than in the ‘high risk’ countries within 6 weeks
1/2
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@yuarecold
Not sure my race has anything to do with my ability to analyse public health data
Regardless I am not arguing against masks I am arguing against general mask mandates: 2 different things
HK has universal mask use and the highest post vaccine mortality in the developed world 👇
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Attract talent = Easy
Cash + financial inducements
Retain talent = Difficult
Need an environment which guarantees that families will not be separated + children will have access to a nurturing education without fear + arbitrary + abusive health regs
1/2
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Agree with
@bencowling88
Harm exceeds minimal benefit for quarantine at this stage of the epidemic
Been here before. Unscientific quarantine policies are bad for population health
Hotel quarantine can *delay* the introduction of new strains into our community but it will not ultimately prevent their introduction. The 7-day quarantine policy has enormous economic costs to our city and very limited benefit.
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HK has some of the world’s leading virologists and Public Health experts. Some of the most respected research in the field of Covid has originated in Hong Kong. Current public policy is ignoring this evidence
My article 21 DQH's Oct 21 ☝️
@richardhorton1
Editor of Lancet 👇
Hong Kong is losing its reputation as a leading financial hub. My concern is that it might also lose its place as a leading centre for biomedical and public health research. Science and freedom are not mutually exclusive.
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Supreme Court Judges on their way home but some of the justices have a handle on the HK Covid response
'There may well be room for people to say that a number of decisions and announcements made by the HKSAR Government relating to the Covid-19 pandemic have seemed to be:'
1/3
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Cue wild celebrations
A public health briefing that is not a total disaster
Reminder for anyone heading out to party make sure you wear that mask, use LHS, avoid gathering groups of more than 4 and forget about a BBQ
HK Syndrome 👇
Hong Kong syndrome:
A psychological response characterised by progressive desensitisation to damaging public health regulations
Presents with irrational euphoria in response to potential relaxation of restricted civil rights regardless of ongoing harm to the young + vulnerable
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At some point the harm to population health of continuing with zero covid > harm of transitioning to mitigation
In HK that point was mid to late 2021. Omicron has made the transition inevitable
Failure to plan for and communicate benefits of mitigation will increase mortality
• HKARG is determined to move towards dynamic zero infection
• Given the scale of the outbreak, must keep improving our measures. We understand RTD is effective, but inconvenient to the public
• The entire govt is fighting against the pandemic. Cannot surrender to the virus
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“Hong Kong border restrictions, along with other COVID policies have had no grounding in science or evidence for many months,"
"This was always a political, not medical, decision, which could have been made months ago."
Hong Kong Drops More COVID-19 Restrictions but Caution Remains w/
@Aligarciaherrer
@DrDOwens
@BowermanGary
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@Rainmaker1973
The US spends between 50% more and 4X as much per person on healthcare as the countries in the circle.
The circled countries have between 30-60% of the preventable illnesses burden of the US.
The US is the most inefficient health system in the world.
The US spends the most
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This is my response to my patients
Respect individual choice
I will continue to mask out of respect when my patients prefer and when I deem the risk to myself justifies masking which currently is rarely
I totally respect other people who make different decisions and choices
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Anyone who really loves Hong Kong should stop and think about what this really means👇
3133 people are locked up in our city without having been found guilty of the crimes they are locked up for
More than 1 in 3 detainees in HK are innocent…… until proven guilty
When did
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Summary from HKU
Peak in 1 week or so
Very low cases by late April
≈1.7 million infected already
CUT now makes no sense
To pursue zero covid testing in late April makes more sense
Pursuing zero covid with immune population would be insanity. My analysis not Prof Leung
Since beginning of 5th wave, there have been about 1.7 (0.32 – 2.86) million people already infected as of February 28, 2022…2/n
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Imagine if Hong Kong had put 10% of the resources and energy that has been wasted in the theatrical performance of ‘not lying flat’ and invested it in actually moving forwards
Update: Health Bureau still refuse to admit RTDs are dead, but say they are being gradually reduced.
HB also reiterated that Hong Kong will "not lie flat".
(We haven't had a Lockdown and Test since September 13th)
News via Sing Tao:
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@tripperhead
Microbiologist: a scientist who studies microscopic life forms and processes
Microbiologists are organism experts not health experts
Health is a state of physical psychological + social well-being not the absence of disease
When will we stop giving oxygen to this nonsense
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Ultimately Hong Kong has the highest mortality rate in the world post vaccine roll out because we placed (and continue to place) too much emphasis on NPI's and not enough emphasis on the benefits of vaccination
One year ago👇
@bencowling88
Only 16% of the over 80s in Hong Kong are vaccinated. This is a public health time bomb which could rapidly overload the health system. The absolute public health priority in Hong Kong must be to increase vaccination rates in the vulnerable.
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There is more to population health than Covid
The only rational decision for population health at this stage of pandemic is to eliminate quarantine completely and begin to roll back the excessive local PH measures
3+4 0+7 0+3 is theatrical unscientific incrementalism
4/6
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Everyone in HK can agree with the sentiment of minimising harm from the epidemic
Lessons from public health: military metaphors unhelpful. Adversely impact priority and allocation of resources
Wars on poverty crime and drugs not going too well
Declare war on military metaphors
Chief Secretary for Administration, John Lee, writing on his blog today:
"The virus is Hong Kong's only enemy now. If we are united without division and internal attrition, we will definitely win the battle with the backing of our country."
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The govt is in a race against time.....
I am today announcing the following ...
1 We have a positive plan
2 Rapid tests for all
3 Hospitals only for treatment
4 Isolation at home for most
HK people, our dedicated nurses and doctors will pull our great city through
Secretary for Food and Health, Professor Sophia Chan: "The Govt is in a race against time... In order to contain the epidemic, we have to trace the close contacts of every confirmed case as soon as possible and conduct environmental investigation rapidly."
Active cases: 30,525
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A (not so) rhetorical question
Are there any experts in HK public health, family or community medicine, virology, medical administration, health economics or social policy that think
1 Universal PCR testing is a good idea in HK?
2 It is even close to our top 5 priorities?
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HK experts in Public Health and Virology have been at the forefront of international Covid research.
Much of this research has informed policy decisions in other locations including Singapore + Japan
Much of this advice has been ignored in HK
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Nice to watch live sport again. A game of cricket
A net is sensible mitigation. Cricket balls are hard projectiles they travel quickly
Everyone on the field is wearing a mask.
Sensible mitigation or absurd theatrics?
Par for course on planet HK?
Masks in sports 🧵
1/6
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@tripperhead
I agree
Incredible how far deeply entrenched ethical values have fallen in Hong Kong
The right to patient confidentiality. The rights of the child. Parental rights. Even the right (I would say duty) of doctors to challenge these excesses made in the name of public health
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blind to the need for a coherent longer-term strategy and contingency planning and the clear public communication of it; and sometimes even apparently contrary to the very ‘science’ which is invoked to justify them
Guilty your honour
3/3
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This is a perfect example of a situation needing rational risk mitigation in key workers
60% of staff not available are because they are close contacts
At this stage of the epidemic in HK every HCW is a close contact.
I assume I am
RAT -ve = good to go
We need our HCW’s
Director of Fire Services, Mr Joseph Leung:
At 5pm, normally we would have 265 ambulances on the streets, but at the moment only 182.
268 FSD staff Covid positive, another 400 close contacts so can't be on the frontlines.
At 4pm, 360 people waiting for an ambulance.
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This is what happens when public health policy ignores science
Predictable, preventable and political
Death rates in HK tragic but expected because a) low vaxx rates in elderly, b) low rates of prior infection & c) overwhelmed healthcare converged to create a perfect storm.
In HK, we have almost exactly replicated conditions of cities grappling with COVID in 2020.
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@kjoules
Don't understand why this is not given more attention
Significant numbers of elderly deaths in HK were caused by the collapse of the hospital system
Many died of treatable conditions aspiration dehydration etc not Covid per se
Many deaths direct result of bad policy decisions
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Again important to challenge this narrative
We are not bringing omicron under control. It is burning through. We should focus on protecting the health system
The epidemic will die when we reach herd immunity
Elimination then will make no sense for population health in HK
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@sid8998
Totally agree. I gave an opinion for a failed judicial review
“In my opinion the whole issue of child separation has the potential to do great reputational harm to the Hong Kong medical response,”
My real fear now is parents delaying treatment due to fear of separation
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How about these as 3 public health policy goals for HK
1 Increase vaccination rates in the old and vulnerable
2 Increase vaccination rates in the old and vulnerable
3 Increase vaccination rates in the old and vulnerable
(2/3)
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@EricTopol
@mroliverbarnes
@primroseriordan
@jburnmurdoch
@imandylin2
This is a standard BA.2 wave with:
No natural immunity
Very low vaccination rates in the most vulnerable
Overloaded health system
I have written a series of articles on how HK got here
Zero covid with no exit is a very bad strategy
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Public Health communication should be positive. It should focus on education. It should honestly and consistently acknowledge uncertainty whilst reacting to and communicating evolving evidence.
Education and positive communication not fear and control
5/6
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Public health is much more than infectious disease
Poverty + social inequality are the greatest drivers of poor population health
PH is about balancing the costs of a disease with the costs of interventions
Time for HK to follow evidence + remove vast majority of restrictions
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Letter to HK doctors today from CHP
we believe COVID-19 patients can be managed like other respiratory infectious diseases
A very sensible decision
We must mitigate but we can never eliminate risk
There is more to population health than Covid
1/2
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Apparently it is not advisable to compare different places
Like Singapore and Hong Kong
That would be like comparing information and disinformation
One science two systems
Dr Libby Lee (when asked why we're not following the mainland on scaling back Health Code use):
• not advisable to compare different places
• different places have different healthcare systems and different vaccination rates
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This is devastating. It is also a public health failure.
There are well established, evidence based, low cost interventions that have been shown to reduce youth suicide.
2 years ago, I argued that Hong Kong would save many more lives in young people by diverting resources
1/ Thirty-seven Hong Kong students have taken their own lives between the beginning of the year and last Wednesday, according to the city’s suicide prevention experts. In all, 269 students are known to have attempted suicide this year.
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Assuming the Finance Secretary is RAT -ve the science would support the decision for him to represent HK in person for an important global meeting
The same science would support the immediate removal of current restrictions which are actively damaging population health in HK
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In 2 previous articles I asked if omicron would force a change in HK Covid strategy and what Plan B may look like
The answers are yes and not sure
In a follow up I ask which strategy is best for population health
Dynamic zero prizes for the answer
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Lots of noise about the Finance Sec attending a global conference 5 days after testing positive for Covid. What does the science tell us?
From a longitudinal study in the Lancet
65% of cases were infectious after 5 days
93% PCR +ve after 7 days
1/6
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Review of masks in children
'So, where now? The first step must be to accept that there is no robust evidence to recommend face masks for children'
despite lowest risk children have the most disruption to their lives during their most formative years
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Lessons for China from the Covid response in HK and Singapore?
@JaneParryHK
and I wrote this article for the BMJ
'The lesson from HK is that failure to acknowledge and communicate the need for a transitional plan can be devastating for population health'
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We are facing a huge wave of Omicron
Test capacity over loaded. Daily figures do not reflect the reality on the ground
This wave will peak in 2-3 weeks, the health system will be overwhelmed
Thousands will die, many unnecessarily mostly vulnerable
1/2
Important update from HKU regarding recent modelling study
Main takeaway is that current restrictions are less effective than predicted in reducing social contacts
Updated model suggests earlier peak with associated increase in mortality
3K v 1K using baseline assumptions
1/3
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