Downside Case
@DownsideCase
Followers
5,120
Following
487
Media
125
Statuses
1,793
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
FREEN X PRADA OPENING STORE
• 548537 Tweets
Al Smith
• 261154 Tweets
#Mステ
• 203835 Tweets
KAIRAIN HANGGANG DULO
• 105255 Tweets
LMSY AFFAIR FINAL EP
• 72429 Tweets
Watch SA TrueStory YouTube
• 64497 Tweets
DeNA
• 63379 Tweets
日本シリーズ
• 50229 Tweets
Perfume
• 44175 Tweets
#bebekkatilleri
• 36090 Tweets
ソフトバンク
• 34080 Tweets
MINQ IN LOVE
• 29685 Tweets
ホークス
• 27516 Tweets
#ساعه_استجابه
• 26591 Tweets
ベイスターズ
• 24704 Tweets
オールナイト
• 21464 Tweets
国連脱退
• 18002 Tweets
ファイターズ
• 17124 Tweets
#櫻坂46_本質的なこと
• 14187 Tweets
危険運転
• 13818 Tweets
横浜優勝
• 13767 Tweets
$NIXX
• 12079 Tweets
Once you realize Private Equity is just guessing exit multiples and Public Equity is just front running sentiment, being an “investor” loses most of its luster. Real prestige goes to the operators and the builders
29
80
1K
No shot this guy runs a private credit fund
THE GOLDEN AGE OF PRIVATE CREDIT
They are everywhere, even on Instagram Reels
8
9
154
17
1
366
A short story that explains the difference between PE Investors, Value Investors and Distressed Investors
4
24
330
Has anyone ever run IRR and MOIC on the Louisiana purchase?
10
14
290
Owl Rock, Ares, GS, BlackRock, Oaktree, Golub all in Pluralsight. Vista torching some big lenders
8
11
284
The hedge fund websites where they just have a logo and the IR email
3
3
207
Funny that VCs think every single aspect of traditional finance will get eaten by fin tech except for their own business
5
15
192
Private credit will return more than private equity over the next 5 years
What’s your FinTwit hot take that would put you in this position?
130
2
105
7
4
179
Interview question: you get one financial metric to base your investment decision on, what is it and why?
126
7
165
Best advice I’ve ever received re being a professional investor: “we get paid to make money, not to be smart”
5
9
159
I honestly didn’t know there were so many PE/IB/RX/Credit folks on Twitter. Really great to to find your people on here
12
2
153
Yea sex is great, but have you ever received a “I’m supportive, no questions” from an IC member?
8
1
132
A few minutes later there was another knock on the door. This time it was the cow and the pig…
1
1
136
Billions would be better if Bobby Axelrod ran a Credit HF
5
8
126
Putting this out there now so I’m on record (will delete if wrong). But I think
@privateinequity
is running a textbook concentric circles playbook on gaining followers. And I think the end game is either lead gen for paid course or addt’l SMB deal sourcing channel on X (1/N)
7
4
118
New associate asking me how we write an investment memo when we don’t have a 60+ page CIM to pillage
0
2
108
I’m almost never the smartest guy in the room, and for that reason I need to usually be the hardest working
4
2
97
A big difference between public and private markets is in public markets the question is “what should I invest in?” Whereas in private markets the question is “what can I invest in and should I?”. Sourcing, triaging, and managing deal flow is an extra dimension
7
3
92
Get this woman writing CIMs ASAP. Natural talent for pitching with charts
3
1
90
Here’s my very simple mental model for thinking about equity investments:
Expected returns can be broken into 4 different variables (1) Yield (2) Growth (3) Multiple (4) Share Count
4
7
82
Tesla has a terminal value problem because I don’t think anyone else can run it after Elon
3
2
80
What I like about credit investments is there’s no exit multiple risk like in private/public equity. In credit, you have a contractual return and have ways of forcing the company to pay you back at par at the end of the investment.
9
2
80
Might send a text to Ben Graham later today
2
2
72
There are generally two kinds of risks a credit investor takes, business risk (left side of the balance sheet) and capital structure risk (right side of the balance sheet). While every investment has some combination of the two risks, separating them can be helpful:
(1/10)
6
7
73
BREAKING NEWS: Georgia up for sale, Blackstone (NYSE: BX) rumored to have interest
4
0
71
ESG is made up nonsense
Mining, once largely viewed as environmentally damaging, is now a sought-after investment for the metals needed in clean energy. Some investors are even saying their holdings have ESG benefits.
1
4
15
6
4
72
The finance bro urge to bond with your deal team by shitting on portfolio companies
0
1
67
You either die a great VC investor or you live long enough to become a sh*tposter on Twitter
5
0
67
Hanging out with Credit Investors
0
4
67
PE cap markets person on a clubbed deal: “pricing is going to be tight and don’t expect to be able to make comments on the doc, we are 2x over book size”
but also: “if you don’t do this deal it’s a problem for our relationship”
…so are you 2x over or do you need my capital?
4
0
62
Pls add footnotes for acronyms and remove grid lines. Use firm color palette. Format numbers as $mm. Thx - nice first pass at this
4
5
66
IC members blowing up your risks and mitigants in the first 30 seconds of committee
2
2
63
Sending this to IC in the hope it means we can stop writing 40 page investment memos
Bill Miller on how to pitch a stock. I read this often and I should probably still read it more
19
162
1K
4
0
60
No one is talking about how the real winner of Succession is Matsson
3
1
60
I would like to lock Howard Marks and Ray Dalio in a room together and just watch them talk nonsense past each other
0
3
60
Imagine asking for $2b in comp
Sources: SoftBank COO Marcelo Claure is leaving as soon as today; reports said Claure wanted $2B in compensation and clashed with Son over his responsibilities (CNBC)
3
16
64
3
2
58
Details on some recent Blackstone mega direct lending deals. These mega deals are becoming more common and are taking "deal share" away from the BSL market
4
4
54
Once your PA’s annual income/appreciation more than covers your annual expenses, you’ve reached personal-finance-escape-velocity. That’s the goal
2
2
54
Mega Fund PE may be the most efficient market in the world. Don’t have the unsophisticated retail investors that shake things up in public equity and don’t have the niches, overlooked deals, and iffy GPs of middle market
6
0
53
When I don’t read the market study because I know we are killing the deal
1
2
50
10:20pm and partners at a top tier law firm are still responding immediately to emails… the grind never stops
4
0
52
Just went through my deal folders to do some Marie Kondo style tidying… turns out none of this stuff sparks joy and I deleted everything. Hope this is fine
2
0
49
JOMO: Joy of Missing Out; feeling content with staying in and disconnecting as a form of self-care
1
3
49
Every time I dig into a new industry, I’m reminded how little I know about so much
2
5
48
If anyone out there is feeling depressed, bad, or feeling sick or anything… I just want you to know that private credit is in its golden age
2
0
46
Buying growth at any price makes as much sense as buying low P/E at any growth
4
0
47
The should have Tiger Global on Shark Tank and have them do every single deal
1
0
47
Holding the line at L+550 but getting beat out by a bank at L+500 and losing the deal
2
0
43
Sounds like a negative GP margin business but we shall see
5
0
46
Think I’ll read this a few more times in my life. Very impressive thinking on macro
1
3
42
Why are a lot of investors also interested in history? What is it about these two things that draws the attention of the same people?
16
2
41
IC saying they want to see shorter investment memos because they know everyone is jammed
3
1
43
Me and the boys passing on deals
0
1
43
How do we get Elliot involved in Twitter again (they already know the company)? I’d like to see them square off against Elon Musk in court
4
4
39
A lot of people on this website say they’re long-term investors and then turn around and say a stock that’s done 3.4x in the past 4 years is a bust. If you’re doing 3.4x deals in a PE fund you’re a hero. Just saying
5
0
41
When BXC wins the deal by providing 1.5x more turns of leverage than you
When you lost the deal because another Sponsor bid well above market multiples for the asset.
11
31
895
1
0
38
Hey
@elonmusk
if you need financing for your $TWTR take private, don’t go to Apollo… I can help you out
1
0
38
GS partner’s daughter acing her interview with the TMT group VP
0
0
39
50 bps amendment fee
A married couple are sitting in middle seats across from one another and ask you, sitting in the aisle, to trade. What do you do?
32
0
28
1
1
37
If people selling tours and massages speak to you on the street, you’re not a real New Yorker. One look in your eyes and they should know better than to ask
1
1
37
This used to be such a ninja move. Too bad it’s out there now
2
0
36
Seeing some bigger unitranches get done by Private Credit shops, taking paper from the syndicated market. 7-8x through the uni on mid to high teens EV multiple
4
0
35
CLO credit analyst (sorry fam)
what job pays well and requires zero critical thinking skills ? looking to rest my brain for a year or 2
31
11
191
2
1
34
There is nothing better than getting refi’d out of a shitty position
1
0
34
The great majority of my portfolio companies are performing incredibly well. And I want them to remember they’d be nothing without my credit, this is all my doing
2
0
34
Private markets lag public markets. Will be interesting to see how growth equity multiples come down as investors realize their exit multiples are lower than a few years ago. It’s all about the exits
The disconnect between valuations for innovative companies in the public vs. private markets is as wide as I ever have seen. The arbitrage opportunity is enormous.
450
338
3K
3
0
31
@WallStCynic
What private credit deals are you looking at? Surely not 1L, cash pay, 6 year maturity deals with negative covenant packages… you must be looking at pref deals with unsecured claims, PIK rates, no maturity, and no actual credit rights
1
0
33
“I apologize for such a long letter - I didn't have time to write a short one.” - Mark Twain
I love blogs and substacks, but I urge authors to write shorter, punchier articles and write ups. Yes, it is much harder but also more impactful.
Truthfully, I have a hard time getting through all the content I sub to and a filter (whether right or wrong) is length.
13
1
121
1
0
31
The relative value between MM syndicated deals and MM direct deals is nuts. MM syndicated price L400-500 and are cov-lite, usually higher LTV too. MM direct are L500-600 with a covenant.
9
0
32
(6/6) I could be wrong, but I find it hard to believe someone in his position would put so much effort into this project w/o some sort of end goal. This type of thing is one of the best parts of this site. It’s not just memes, it’s a community with valuable potential networks
0
0
31
Netflix is kind of a sneaky shitco. Mature business that doesn’t generate cash. If not now, when?
4
0
31
As a former D1 athlete, here are some (probably biased) thoughts on why athletics prepares you to excel in finance/investing roles.🧵:
(1/7)
2
4
30
There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat
3
0
30
If you’re flying with a little kid who you can’t control, the price of your tickets should be 5x mine
2
1
29
Lobbing a super aggressive term sheet at a CFO
1
0
27
The definitive mapper of Shark Tank to PE Firms. Won't be taking comments. Thx
@kevinolearytv
@mcuban
@TheSharkDaymond
@LoriGreiner
@robertherjavec
@BarbaraCorcoran
2
2
30
My biggest struggle as an investor. I am often uncomfortable with the fact that I’m not really building anything of meaningful and durable value. I’m not on the field but rather just a fan in the stands who is betting on which team will win
Private Equity = guessing exit multiples
Public Equity = front running sentiment
Once you internalize this, the word investor loses its luster
Real prestige lies with the operators
RT & DM
@privateinequity
#PrivateEquity
31
71
878
5
0
29
>>>>> IC members who think they’re more important than they actually are (and somehow still don’t know what current market terms are)
1
0
26
It’s interesting how growth equity is very rich to public comps but PE is mostly cheap to public comps. PE has much better public market exits at the moment
1
0
27