Allen Root
@DowJonesAl
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Wall Street since ‘01. Barron's since ‘18. MBA (really). Engineer (harder than MBA). Desperate for followers. The picture is ironic. 🇨🇦 born.
New York
Joined October 2018
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Send us removal request.
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Feedback alert: We all have to learn to read. Really. A primer...
1. When
@barronsonline
tells you what Wall Street thinks, it's what Wall Street thinks, not us. As an investor, I want to know multiple views, which is why we write (and people read) stories about analyst
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More official:
@elonmusk
didn't use a margin loan to buy Twitter as my Thursday article implied. Here's a link to the corrected article. Again, many comments killing me. All deserved (well, most deserved).
@elonmusk
dropped margin loan in May. So...
1. It's an error, sorry, correcting
2. Good reason why PR helps (see
@garyblack00
)
3.
#2
doesn't excuse
#1
.
4. Mr. Musk has $TSLA stock pledged per filings
5. comes after 4 which brings us back to 1,2,3,4... (levity to sooth)
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$TSLA
#cyberquad
delivered and assembled. Stories to follow. Didn’t quite make it by Christmas (insert joke about
@elonmusk
delivery timelines here.) Early review from 11 yr old is very +ve.
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Great chart from Piper's Alexander Potter. Forget being $TSLA bull or bear. Super helpful summary of EV launch performance.
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Q3 out, 241,000 deliveries. So far in 2021, $TSLA has delivered more than 627,000 vehicles, up almost 100% compared with 2020.
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$TSLA community. Anyone paid for full battery replacement? What was the cost. I hope I can get some comments/responses for some context. Warranty is typically 8 year. We have Tesla older than that with +100K miles now. Thanks.
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Correx: $TSLA on pace for worst quarterly reaction since stock dropped 13.6% after reporting Q2 2019 numbers. Stock also dropped 14.5% after Q3 2013 report. That's the steepest drop post earnings I see. Tesla missed numbers BOTH times prior. This is worst reaction to a "beat."
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Troy was pretty darn close
Tesla blew away Wall Street expectations with 308,600 deliveries. Wow! It's amazing.
Because the number is so high, my error rate exceeded 3% but I'm happy with the results. Congrats Tesla team.
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$TSLA test drive for
@barronsonline
Can Tesla's Model Y Take a 1,000 Mile Road Trip? Absolutely. | Barron's
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How to catch a ⬇️🗡️
@barronsonline
has a view, we picked $TSLA. Lots of headwinds + trouble for
@elonmusk
's 🚗 company, but tough to ignore EV trend, industry-leading margins, PE ratio, PEG ratio and, importantly, free cash flow.
Link to story:
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$TSLA falling after
@elonmusk
tweet about
#Midterms2022
. Something worth watching. Brand/PR issues large for Tesla amid Twitter takeover. $TSLA at about $199 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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$F Model T versus $TSLA sales.
@elonmusk
talked about scaling as fast/faster than the T a while back. World, of course, is larger, but industry, of course, is now mature. Quite a chart.
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$TSLA stock was down 9.8% at Monday's lows. Up more than $78 from intraday low of $851 and change to close at $930 a share, down less than 2%. Today was bonkers in the market.
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@ElectrekCo
375k
#cybertruck
a year for $TSLA would be an enormous number. Way more than street. 250k Ys in 2022 in US.
Tesla Stock Is Up Again. This Time It's About the Cybertruck. | Barron's
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@stanphylcap
I’m happy to open up my books to you, for this particular challenge, though it feels a little immature. Will call to discuss $TSLA views. We’ll see if you pick up. Perhaps
@elonmusk
can confirm he has zippo idea who I am…
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$TSLA fun facts: Up 1.4% at $1,012.95. Currently up 8 consecutive days; up 32.2% over this period. Longest winning streak since Jan 8, '21, when it rose for 11 straight trading days. Up 16.4% month-to-date; on pace for best month since Oct '21, when it rose 43.7%.
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I love "inside baseball." As
@garyblack00
would put it, gotta give
@TroyTeslike
props. $TSLA estimates best.
Alternative Hed: Twitter 1, Wall Street 0
How Did Wall Street Get Tesla’s Fourth-Quarter Deliveries So Wrong? via
@BarronsOnline
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Favorite chart in a long time. Look at scale of auto business. Not easy to build a car company.
@elonmusk
's company is generating about 15% of total free cash flow of entire industry. $AAPL generates more free cash flow than global car business. (
@p_ferragu
$TSLA $F $GM)
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As
@BillGates
@elonmusk
$TSLA short story grows. Good time to review
#Tesla
short interest. It looks average these days. $SPY avg is about ~2%. Tesla is ~3%. Although 3% is high for +$1 tr cap. $MSFT and other +$1 tr caps have short interest <1%.
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How good is high oil for $TSLA? Every $10 of Crude Oil works out to about 30 cents/gallon at the pump. Adds about $120 buck of gasoline a year for average driver. Overall, Tesla 'fuel' saves $1,200 to $1,400/year (sources: EPA, Bloomberg, Barron's math)
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I love lists.
#TIME100Companies
No $TSLA. All the other $1 trillion companies in: $GOOGL $MSFT, $AAPL $AMZN $FB (no longer tr).
With cars, $RIVN, $BYDDY and $F in.
And
#SpaceX
out.
#AxiomSpace
,
#Astroscale
in.
Of course,
@elonmusk
was Time POY.
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One more $TSLA delivery tidbit. Looks like highest FactSet est (I can see) was 292K. Tesla beat high by 6%. Quite a result.
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Biggest learning, for me, from $TSLA semi event is the charging technology. 70% of 500 mile range in 30 minutes. Fast charging to be used in
#Cybertruck
.
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We all get to have opinions. (Not all opinions are equally valid by the way...) With all that softening preamble, this decision is so stupid. Is
@elonmusk
overpaid? Maybe. Did $TSLA shareholders know what they were voting for? Yes.
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@elonmusk
stop responding. (Except, perhaps, to me occasionally. Likes provide validation.). See
@garyblack00
approach--tough to beat D.C. $TSLA
Tesla’s Musk Wants Credit for Paying Taxes. He’s Not Going to Get It. via
@BarronsOnline
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Pretty sure the math is way, way off. 63 kgs of lithium in Model S is probably off by factor of 10
@elonmusk
@MartinViecha
Letters: Electric Vehicles Speed Ahead on a Bridge to Nowhere
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$RIVN down a/h about 3%. Two Issues IMO. One, they have made 652 R1T's. Not that many. Two, Georgia plants starts up in 2024. As $TSLA CEO
@elonmusk
says, volume production is hard. Still early for Rivian though.
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$TSLA whoa. $3.22 versus $2.30. Op Profit north of $3.6 billion, $2.9 billion ex credits. Cost per car came DOWN compared with Q4.
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@elonmusk
dropped margin loan in May. So...
1. It's an error, sorry, correcting
2. Good reason why PR helps (see
@garyblack00
)
3.
#2
doesn't excuse
#1
.
4. Mr. Musk has $TSLA stock pledged per filings
5. comes after 4 which brings us back to 1,2,3,4... (levity to sooth)
I think
@elonmusk
faced a margin call around Dec 22 based on the $12.5 billion loan agreement backed up my $TSLA stock. Tough to get details. No one to answer questions. Post call, either more stock pledges or cash repayment or combo to reset loan-to-value.
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I feel like I'm living in crazy town.
@elonmusk
doesn't have trouble financing $TWTR. Loans, sales, whatever. He has, perhaps, $170 b in unpledged assets (& friends). Why the need to develop a death spiral margin loan scenario? (This has nothing to do with a $TLSA bull/bear)
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Fun with numbers: Indian automotive market 20-25mm units a year, but dominated by 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles. 3-4mm passenger cars. Still, 1.3 to 1.4 billion people means $TSLA will be there eventually. As far as I can tell
@elonmusk
first addressed India back in 2019.
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$TSLA secretly launched a new model... Cyberquad ATV at $1,900 for ages 8 and up. Pretty cool. My 10 year old self has a case of the gimmies.
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Before $TSLA bears call me a shill. Everyone needs to know what happened on 2000… Average stock px in S&P 500 in 2022 is ~180, in 2000 about ~40. Go figure…
Tesla Stock Might Be Due For a Pop. Just Look at Amazon. via
@BarronsOnline
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@elonmusk
what is the total indebtednesses from the old stock pledges? Can’t be that high. I seriously doubt buying $TWTR involves selling any $TSLA stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk Will Have No Trouble Financing Twitter | Barron's
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@garyblack00
Positive can get clicks too… but the framework is correct. If you think our bosses care what some advertiser thinks… Yikes. Ask a news editor if they care about advertiser feedback on context then duck. One other thing, Tesla interest is 100x Honda interest which is why there
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I've very tired of $TLSA used car prices crater... Of course they did. New car prices dropped by up to 20% early in Jan. Demand looks strong in Q1. Bulls win round one of "the did price cuts work" battle. Next round will be Q1 gross margins.
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This is the equivalent of suing the lawnmower maker for picking up the lawnmower to trim the hedges.
@Tesla
$TSLA
There are reasons people can dislike Tesla stock. This is not one of them.
Lawsuits vs Tesla claim marketing of Autopilot is deceptive
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Big day for me. Blocked. Everyone confuses me for someone who cares what happens. I only want the story. $TSLA $TSLAQ.
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$TSLA is losing talent to an alternative AI venture run by CEO
@elonmusk
. Feels odd, if not unprecedented. Yes reasons, reasons. Still,
#Tesla
investors are all OK with this?
@SawyerMerritt
Ethan was going to join OpenAI, so it was either xAI or them.
They have been aggressively recruiting Tesla engineers with massive compensation offers and have unfortunately been successful in a few cases.
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I think
@elonmusk
faced a margin call around Dec 22 based on the $12.5 billion loan agreement backed up my $TSLA stock. Tough to get details. No one to answer questions. Post call, either more stock pledges or cash repayment or combo to reset loan-to-value.
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$TSLA worst start to a year. If I may, based on feedback, don't get into "but 2 yr delivery CAGR is +60%," etc. Mkt is forward looking. Plus mkt gets short-sighted in tough times. Mkt is worried about '23 demand. Delivery miss didn't help.
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$TSLA 310K Q1 delivery number, expectations down to 310K before the release. So it's an line result. Go figure.
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$TSLA Spring break family road trip highlight. Story to follow.
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Feedback alert (summary): Clickbait!
So much anger. I disagree about the Hed. Excellent headline IMO. Anyway and always, read the story (please)…$TSLA $F
@elonmusk
Tesla Faces Its 'Edsel Moment' as Cybertruck Launch Nears | Barron's
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@POTUS
I haven't had much luck with WH communications. So $TWTR. Is there any reason $TSLA keeps getting left out of EV communications? There is the union issue, but on matters of climate changes it feels odd. In the U.S., $F and $GM sold roughly 51K EVs in '21. Tesla about 360K.
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Fun $TSLA facts. The stock was up $100, or more than 14% off Thursday's lows into the close. The average analyst target price is about 20% higher than where shares are trading. That's unusual. Tesla stock is above the average target price about 70% of the time.
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The crazy thing about $TSLA pricing is that when Model Y, LR version, came out, early 2020, it cost ~$50k. Now it costs, wait for it, $50k. A BMW X5 in '20 was roughly $59k. Now its $62k. Oh what interesting times these are. Via
@CoxAutomotive
/kbb.com.
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Wall Street consensus gets lazy from time to time. $TSLA analyst has $21.1B in est Q4 sales. $TSLA did $21.5B in Q3 selling 61k less cars. Q4 estimate just wrong/not updated.
Typically, ests trail on way up & lag on way down. $TSLA sales ests have been falling, so this one odd.
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It's official $TSLA HQ:
13101 Harold Green Road, Austin, Texas 78725
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$TSLA
@elonmusk
employee/employment thoughts. Still a hot job. Three million applications in 2021. Source: Tesla's 2021 Impact Report.
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Feedback Alert: I can only assume you are paid off like all the others.
No. People are so sensitive about recalls. Barron's found that 99% of Tesla recalls in the U.S. in 2022 are non-hardware. And NHTSA classifies them as recalls, not me... $TSLA
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I always wonder a few things about tweets like this. (1) what is the point? Totally uncontextualized numbers are useless. Batteries have more metals, yep. And (2) why does everyone have more followers than me…
An electric car requires 6X more minerals than a conventional car.
A typical 1,000 lb electric car battery contains:
190 lbs of graphite
130 lbs of nickel
90 lbs of copper
60 lbs of cobalt
30 lbs of lithium
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Not completely useless issue:
@Google
needs to fix year to date calculation. You, the great Google, start calc from 1st trading day. Calc should be from year end. Take $TSLA, up 63% year to date, not 92%. Big drop on Jan 3. Your calc is missing Dec 30/Jan 3 move.
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Imagine getting paid to build this stuff
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$TSLA options trading is something to behold. Stock trades ~10 times the options volume as $AAPL, adjusted for market cap. Volume up into YE.
Yes, Elon Musk Has Stopped Selling Tesla Stock. But There Is Another Reason Shares Are Up. via
@BarronsOnline
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$TSLA delivered 405,278 vs. est of about 420,000. probably not enough to satisfy investors Tuesday. We'll, of course, see. 1,313,851 delivered in 2022, up about 40%.
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With $TWTR deal out some overhang on $TSLA should go. Estimates range from $35 to $100/shr. But Twitter intends to litigate.
@elonmusk
thoughts on that?
Tesla Stock Stands to Gain if Musk Succeeds in Ending Twitter Deal
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$F 9.3% operating profit margin, up from Q1 and up year over year. Solid.
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I cannot clean my house in 3 hours
'If you give yourself 30 days to clean your home, it will take you 30 days. But if you give yourself 3 hours, it will take 3 hours. The same applies to your goals, ambitions, and potential." -
@elonmusk
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Thx for tracking release times
@TroyTeslike
Tesla is expected to release its Q4 2022 global production and delivery numbers on Monday, January 2nd. The numbers were released on the 2nd day of the month for the past 11 quarters. The estimated release time is around 8:55 am Pacific Time.
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Where o where have the $TSLAQ gone? That's not a troll job. It's my real Q. Short interest, less convertible arbitrage, looks positively average for $TSLA these days.
All of Tesla’s Short Sellers Have Vanished via
@BarronsOnline
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$TSLA delivered 422,875 vehicles in the first quarter and produced 440,808 units. Both records. Not to bad. Street wanted ~420k.
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What will happen when solar is dominant power modality - will US foreign policy change?
#investing
#oil
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I bought a $TSLA Cyberquad. I have an order #. Not here yet. I was hoping to be the No. 1 cool dad on the block (under the supervision of other watchful parents. My kids and others: Helmets!) I also want to write about secondary market for the quad. Still waiting...
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Ah, and don’t forget there was waaaay more than a million BEVs sold in 2021
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When
@elonmusk
says batteries are new oil… First, I’m happy because it keeps me employable. Second, don’t forget global Li industry was ~$7 billion in 2021. Global oil consumed is close to $3 trillion a year at current prices. Very early in transition. $tsla $rivn $gm $f
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$NIO from Edison Yu at DB. Linkin job posting for U.S. expansion
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$TWTR shareholders voting in favor of $54.20 bid from
@elonmusk
was one of the easiest things to predict I can recall. "Shareholders vote in favor, say people familiar with the matter..." People familiar = anyone.
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Holy moly. $TSLA down again. Now down 11 of 13 trading days, off 30% over that span. Now down 40% since
@elonmusk
takeover of $TWTR. $NDX down roughly 1% over same span. Just incredible stock price action.
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$TSLA gets a post Super Bowl bounce again. (Tesla is the search term for EVs.) I continue to believe $GM needs to advertise individual brands/cars, not EVs generically. This, of course, is not the most important issue for either company/stock.
@Google
trends, past day.
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$LCID results horrifying (my take). 2023 guidance 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles. Street at about 20,000. Reservations down to 28,000 from 34,000 reported in the Q3 release. $TSLA $RIVN $F $GM
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$TSLA down 5% pre market. 2 issues: (1) $NIO weak guidance update for Q4 (39k cars vs prior of up to 48k. Guidance implies ~15k for Dec vs up to 24k cars.) (2) The late Dec plant shut down.
TSLA stock chart still weak . $100 is support. This is tax loss selling season too.
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I cover, mainly, industrials and cars. $TSLA ends up being majority of coverage. Why? Most valuable, volatile, lots of drama and lots of wealth created over time. People follow the money. Table is $TSLA and $TSLA vs $SPY since 2010 (First close post 2010 IPO is that return).
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Math never moves markets. I just came up with that. True though. $TSLA
@garyblack00
@GerberKawasaki
$CARS searches don't show impact from
@elonmusk
Tweeting yet. Thx
@TroyTeslike
for work you do. (Self promotional link below.)
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Winning feedback of day
“Try harder to not be so negative and boring.”
Sound advice
$TSLA
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$TSLA up 5 strght days, 13 of 15, now above 200-day moving avg, +32% since Jul 12, +48% from May 52-week low. It's on a run.
@garyblack00
may have given boost with $1,600 pt. Gary has +200k followers (jealous? yes).
~54% held by institutions,
#Tesla
is a retail stock.
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$GGPI becomes $PSNY (in all likelihood) this week. A look at EV/estimated 2023 sales. Polestar sales is the $6.6 billion on its investor presentation. $TSLA $RIVN $NIO $LCID $XPEV $LI
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$TSLA 254,695 for Q2, Covid cost the company, maybe, 90,000 or 100,000 units. That's about inline with reduced expectations. My guess is stock fine given the hammering it took in Q2. We'll see.
$TSLA deliveries, likely, out in a couple hours. What is the true consensus line for a beat/miss?
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"like Kelce leaving the Chiefs." Wedbush's Dan Ives. Not what you want. $TSLA.
I made the difficult decision to move on from Tesla after 18 years yesterday. I am so thankful to have worked with and learned from the countless incredibly talented people at Tesla over the years.
I loved tackling nearly 🤣 every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified
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I only missed the $tsla price target by $700 or about 33%. Is that good or bad?
Cathie Wood’s New Tesla Price Target Is Out. And It’s a Doozy. via
@BarronsOnline
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Salty Fri: For $TSLA / $TSLAQ. $TSLA up 9% this week. $GM up 2, $F down 8%. Remember, it's a trader column. We talk trades. Trades ≠ Investments.
BTW: Since $TSLA earnings debacle: $TSLA up 11%, $GM flat, $F down 8%. Earnings season news now in...
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$TSLA another
@elonmusk
stock sale. more options. please make it stop (I do love the content).
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$TSLA Model Y inventory from
@Mattjungphoto
.
@ElectrekCo
says no more production slots for a Y order in Q1. Estimated delivery now Apr. to June. At beginning of Feb. website said Feb. to March. Model 3 est. delivery still Feb. to March.
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