Dan Greenhaus
@DanGreenhaus
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Strategist, former CNBC contributor, music, music, Phish, sometimes right, sometimes wrong, never in doubt
New York
Joined January 2011
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"It has been said that good forecasters have a good sense of history. I suppose that is true. But the best lesson from the past is to forget it before it shoves you into trouble" - Peter Bernstein, NYT 12/30/2007
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When I started on Wall Street, older guys on the desk all had tidbits of wisdom to share, many I never forgot. One they universally agreed with, and repeated time and time again, I share with you now;
"round numbers matter" they said. "Literally the most important thing."
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In mid-70s recession, econmy was in recession frm Nov73 - spring 75. Yet the economy *added* jobs in each of the recession's first nine months. Yes, job growth is an imprtnt indicator but alone, its insufficient to argue against recession.
@JimPethokoukis
@TonyFratto
@IvanTheK
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Since everyone is waiting with for the
#FederalReserve
H8 report, here you go. Deposits at small banks fell $108B; deposits at large banks ($250B+) rose by $120B. I don't believe, since the GFC, small banks have seen a larger outflow.
@steveliesman
@barryknapp
@lisaabramowicz1
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I feel like maybe this section of the
@federalreserve
#FOMC
minutes should be getting more attention. It's pretty unusual to see this stated so plainly.
@steveliesman
@ScottWapnerCNBC
@lisaabramowicz1
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@michaelbatnick
this is an actual
@NewYorker
cartoon that ran in the 1970s I believe. Ive saved it for years and now, thankfully, is the perfect time to break it out.
An asteroid could strike earth tomorrow, wiping out mankind, and the stock market would be up 2%.
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China might be to blame for the rise in Treasury yields. But we should also note that cumulatively, the six other largest holders of our debt have, since Aug '17, added more to their holdings than China has shed.
@lisaabramowicz1
10
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105
Reminder: the Fed cut rates by 25 bps in July 1995. Not only was the S&P 500 at a record high *that day*, but the index was already up 20% for the year.
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"A cohort of consumers that had between $2,000 and $5,000 in their accounts pre-pandemic.....they're still sitting with about $13,000 in their accounts. It has come down from about $13,400 to $12,800...but its still much higher than it was before." - Brian Moynihan yesterday
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To confirm, in the first quarter:
- $MSFT reported 17/20% revenue/net income growth (44% operating margin)
- $GOOGL reported 16/57% revenue/net income growth (32% operating margin)
- $META reported 27/117% revenue/net income growth (38% operating margin)
And with the broad
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True story: the market cap added by $AAPL just since reporting and announcing its stock split at the end of July is equal to the COMBINED total market cap for the bottom 77 stocks in the $SPX
#StockMarket
#investing
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Im disappointed in the jobs number. I thought it would be higher. A number of indicators suggested it might be. However we must note that other things are saying otherwise. The
@DallasFed
has been seeing a steady drop in the % of people saying they would go back to their old job.
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I don't think this can be said enough, but 300K+ jobs created in a single month is an incredibly strong rate (yes, lots of govt jobs). Pre-covid, that happened less than 15% of the time. Even less frequent this far into an expansion. Really, really impressive labor market.
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Hi
@DiMartinoBooth
!! Long time, I hope all is well. I would add the following context: While China is reducing its Treasury holdings (more appropriately "shifting"), many other countries have ramped *up* Treasury holdings, more than compensating for China's decline.
No surprise here but an alarm you don't want to hit snooze on...
@apolloglobal
"At the peak in 2013, China held $1.3trn in US Treasuries. Today they hold $850bn, and the selling has accelerated over the past two years."
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It was a pleasure to join my old friends Josh Brown and
@michaelbatnick
, with a surprise appearance by
@ritholtz
, on their podcast
@TheCompoundNews
to discuss the investment landscape while having a few laughs. Good things happening for good people.
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The $SPX rally is something to behold, +16% in 40 trading days. Very few such rallies in modern history. The bounce off the Covid low, spring 2009, bounce off the 2002 and 2003 lows, post LTCM, post '90 recession, off the '82 low....impressive company.
@michaelsantoli
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Just listened to
@fundstrat
on
@RiskReversalPod
with
@GuyAdami
and let me say, I agree with Tom 100% that in *most* years, the stock market doesn’t make sense. I’ve had way more conversations over the years with institutional investors who say “WTH?” as opposed to “obviously.”
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Listening to
@HalftimeReport
@Stephanie_Link
about the narrowness of the rally. How about this: ~30% of the S&P 500 is lower today than when the broad market bottomed in October. Not trailing the market but lower in price than when the S&P bottomed.
@ScottWapnerCNBC
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It appears to be that time of the year again, everyone's favorite, when all sorts of perpetually wrong observers trot out chart overlays with 1987 with some comment such as "just asking questions" or "interesting!" Its as American as apple pie except apple pie is good.
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Important to note that the University of Michigan sentiment survey made some methodological changes beginning with this report. They are now include web responses in addition to the traditional phone interviews. Further changes to come.
@TheStalwart
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"As goes Jan, so goes the year" I'm told.
@AlmanacTrader
knows best, but when you look at data, its pretty clear. Over ensuing 11 months, Jan sees the largest outperformance spread following an up Jan v. a down Jan. Interestingly, the relationship inverts in year's back half.
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There is a lot of bad news out there for sure. So how about a positive take on things? Sorting through history, 25% declines in the $SPX are generally associated with positive returns looking out over a number of time horizons.
@RiskReversal
@jonnajarian
@michaelbatnick
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I know many know this and
@hmeisler
can tell me where I'm wrong, but with the $SPX (4248) closing right around its 200dma (4236), worth repeating how important the 200dma can be. In previous bull markets - 80s, 90s and 00s - upward slowing MAs proved to be important support
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If I had told you at the start of the year that this would be the annual performance for $AAPL $AMZN $META $GOOGL $TSLA $NVDA $MSFT $NKE $DIS $HD $BAC $JPM, what would you have guessed to be the $SPX's annual performance? I bet *not* -20%. And yet....
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The econ grew 2.4% in a qtr that a few mnths ago was going to be negative, jobless claims fell bk to an incredible low level and orders for durable goods remain steady. I know, I know, skate to where the puck is going. But there's nothing even close to a recession in these
#s
.
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This has been going on since 2010 (!), but how many data points have to come in showing the U.S. economy is doing fine before the doomsayers stop calling for doom? Previously it was jobs, now its retail sales. No recession here.
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I see several accounts are pushing the idea that the next Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is a reason to be fearful (rates!). People seeing these tweets should refer to what
@USTreasury
said earlier this year:
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For all the talk about a weak consumer (student loan payments, higher rates on CC balances, higher gasoline prices, excess savings depletion, etc.), data from Bank of America (which has done the best job of this) still show that consumers of all income cohorts have meaningfully
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I would add to
@RyanDetrick
's post this chart from Reorg Research which shows YTD chapter 11 filings broken down by sector. Most sectors are lower this year except (obviously) real estate.
Bankruptcies are running 40% below 2019 levels.
Things aren't perfect, but if trouble was really coming, we'd expect to see it show here first.
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Hard to believe, but its been one year since the
#FOMC
first hiked interest rates, and what a year its been. While everyone might think $SPY equity weakness is normal when the Fed hike rates, the previous 4 cycles say otherwise.
@michaelbatnick
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Im reading this
@DavidAFrench
op-ed in the
@nytimes
and I'm not sure this episode of the
@TheBearFX
on
@hulu
gets enough attention. I dont think Im alone in this view, but this was one of the best episodes of TV Ive seen in a long, long time.
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Reading through Twitter this weekend, and ignoring any debates about the correct level, I am truly shocked at the number of well educated people who did not know there is a deposit insurance limit. I thought this was the type of thing everyone knew.
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An update on the $KRE regional banks. No green to be found. Clearly unrealized losses are still an issue and clearly deposit betas are front and center. What does the
#FederalReserve
do? $NYCB $MTB $RF $FHN $CFG $TFC $WAL $ZION $NV $OK $CFR $HBAN $VLY $PACW $CBSH $EWBC
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Presented without comment; the ratio of the S&P 500 Tech Sector to the S&P 500 Energy Sector ($XLK to $XLE for short)
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New data from $V show still solid consumer spending trends. Volumes are still up MSD with card not present volume up 9% even if we exclude travel, where so much spending has been concentrated. This shouldn't be surprising with a healthy labor market but still good to see. (1/2)
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The S&P 500 $SPX is now over 7% off its high. While that's a bit smaller decline than what we saw either late last year or this past spring, it is still sizable. What's interesting is that it is not led by the largest stocks. Yes, $AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, etc are well off their
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There's something about today's top performers. I can't quite put my finger on it. I'm not sure it means anything but when I figure it out, I'll let you know.
$CVNA $AFRM $UPST $COIN $META $WE $OPEN $QS $UNIT $DASH $TDOC $RKT $HOG $ROKU $NET $PLTR $ALGN
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While labor market has been very strong, its slowing. Also, if we use a yield curve inversion as a starting point for "getting worried," then we see the labor market expanding for over a year on average. Current labor market growth is more, but not unusual.
@michaelsantoli
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*U.S. 2- TO 10-YEAR CURVE INVERTS FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2019
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With $NVDA splitting its stock, just a historical observation; recent splits from $AAPL (Aug 20), $TSLA (Aug 22), $AMZN (June 22) and $GOOGL (Jul 22) resulted in drops of ~15%, 30%, 29% and 27%. Not that this means anything but I found it interesting.
@michaelsantoli
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This isnt rocket science: The Fed's Lisa Cook: AMERICANS MAY BE PESSIMISTIC BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT JUST LOOKING FOR SLOWER INFLATION, BUT FOR PRICES TO RETURN TO WHERE THEY WERE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC
Again, so much of the landscape today makes sense if you accept this premise.
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If I had told you on Sunday that $AMZN would be down 15% this week, $GOOGL would be down 6.6%, $META would be down 23% and $MSFT would be down 3.5%, where would you have guessed the $SPX would be? I'm willing to bet its *not* UP 3% WTD, and yet here we are.
@ScottWapnerCNBC
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S&P 500 RISES 20% FROM OCTOBER LOW TO ENTER BULL MARKET....This is good! Higher prices are better than lower prices. And the rally may be broadening, with strong moves by small and mid cap stocks, which if sustained is also good! But to be clear, a 20% rally doesn't really mean
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I know this is of little concern to investors focused on the day-to-day, but if the S&P 500 $SPY had - since the end of 2019 - risen at a historically average 7% per year, it would end 2023 at 4,235, roughly 2% away from current levels.
#StocksForTheLongRun
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I still think it's amazing that "financial literacy" isn't something standardized across all public schools in the United States. This doesn't have to come at the expense of another subject but the benefits to this are just enormous, and obvious.
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Worrying about bank commercial real estate exposure is all the rage. So probably worth observing that on either a nominal or a % basis, we've now seen the largest two week drop in CRE loans by banks on record (nearly 20 years). Its "only" $30B on a nearly $3T loan book but still.
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This chart from Whirlpool $WHR illustrates what the shift from goods (aka: stuff) to services looks like for a company specializing in the former. This isn't new. But lots of companies still have too much stuff & that means markdowns (great!) and reduced production (not great!).
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So the last few days have been really something. The Equity Risk Premium widened out, as have credit spreads. But in either case, the move has been to levels that are still considered tame. For instance, here's IG spreads $LQD Not much going on.
@michaelsantoli
@carlquintanilla
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It was fun catching up with both
@GuyAdami
and
@riskreversal
and special pleasure to chat again with my friend
@dmoses34
on the podcast. It's been a while! I think we covered some good ground but I'm biased since I was the one doing the talking.
🚨🎙️
@GuyAdami
@dmoses34
@RiskReversal
are neither fools nor fanatics, sticking to their convictions.
++
@DanGreenhaus
of Solus Asset Management joins to lay out what could go right for the economy & markets.
Sponsored by
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
@FactSet
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I feel like this isn't getting enough attention. The national avg gas price is $3.85 ($5.15 in Cali) which is, except for a few brief moments, essentially the highest level in the post GFC environment. Could weigh on spending and drive up inflation expectations.
@SullyCNBC
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Again, keep in mind, recent trends are more important than long term trends. The three month annualized rate of headline
#CPI
is 3.8% today compared to 3.3% in Dec while core
#inflation
is 5.1% compared to 4.3% in Dec. We can slice and dice more but trend is flat at best.
The month-over-month rate is far more impt to watch. Right now, the
#FOMC
is paying attention to "core-core" inflation, which also excludes housing. And the MOM rate for this measure over the last 5mths is still averaging over 3%. That's not good enough for Fed to cut rates soon.
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A lot of confusion how estimates could be so wrong abt jobs rpt, i.e. forecasters are idiots or govt is lying. How abt post-Covid, nobody really understands what's happening across the econ? i.e. recession v. new bull mkt debate?
@steveliesman
@carlquintanilla
@ScottWapnerCNBC
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Labor market is pretty clearly slowing down; job openings lower, jobless claims higher, job creation moderating. At same time, the labor market was incredibly strong for a long, long period so a slowdown was inevitable. Already here: private payrolls have been slowing for months.
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Have we officially reached the “I’m not predicting a 2008 style collapse but….” part of the tightening campaign/cycle?
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I see
#stockmarketcrash
is trending. To put this "crash" in perspective, if the $SPX S&P 500 had gone up a perfectly normal 7% per year in 2020, 2021 and 2022, the index would have ended the year at roughly 3,957, just about 1% less than where we actually are. Not bad.
#History
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The $SPX rally may be pausing. Lets put this in perspective. $SPY ~27% off October low. Only 5 rallies in modern history have been comparable:
-Early 1975 (following 73/74 bear)
-Late 1982 – after the bull market began that summer
-Early 1999 after LTCM
-Mid 2009 of the low
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Im a broken record, but while another 2+ million people filed an initial claim, the number of continuing claims actually declined. If you're looking for further evidence the economy is reopening, here you go.
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A lot of comparing today's market to the 99 period, of course due to valuation/optimism. Fine, but impt to remember that the "late 1990s bubble" lasted years. Here's Floyd Norris writing about a "tech stock mania" and "gambling frenzy" in July 1995.
@jimcramer
@michaelsantoli
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Here's the table for today's PCE release. Jan PCE now shows +0.423%, higher than the original 0.377% est. Of all the outcomes, an upward revision of that magnitude to Jan is one of the better outcomes, which is prob why Treasuries are rallying.
@carlquintanilla
@SaraEisen
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6
17
Based on financial TV + print, I'm fighting a losing battle re:
#CPI
YOY/MOM battle. Palpable excitement that YOY rate will drop precipitously tomorrow, even though that makes my case! 0.3%/0.4% MOM readings aren't good enough and Fed members should remain concerned.
@SaraEisen
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I dont have the reach of others and I know Ive been harping on this issue for a while. But I truly think its one of the most important in terms of electoral effects. You simply cannot convince people "inflation is coming down" when this reality exists.
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Rates are at the highest since 2008! 30 year yield is 4.40%! Mortgage rates on their way to 8%!
Homebuilders $DHI $LEN $PHM $NVR $HOV $TOL $MTH $THMC $MDC :
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1
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Just to repeat, the
#FOMC
does not see
#inflation
back at target until 2026. They took two rate cuts out of next year so now the Fed funds is seen at 5.1% as compared to 4.6% previously. 2025 is higher as well.
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1
15
Listen, I try very hard not to be a Pollyanna about markets or the economy. The data wins always. But as it relates to $SBUX and renewed consumer worries, they talk a lot about weakness in the "occasional consumer." Their regular consumers seem to be doing fine. And I don't
5
0
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With commenting on $SIVB or $SI specifically, banks in general $XLF have seen deposit outflows for a few quarters in a row now. This is what you'd expect as people migrate away from (say) low yielding savings accounts to (say) higher yielding Treasuries. Question is, is it over?
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A good time to remind people that most of the time, stocks go up!! If you’re a sell side equity strategist, you’re going to be right more often than not by being bullish!
#themoreyouknow
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A quick thread on my
@CNBCClosingBell
appearance yesterday. I got more than usual feedback on it so I wanted to clarify a few things, particularly about my comments regarding the equity rally's narrowness. (1/5)
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I know everyone is talking about this & its something I've posted about in the past as well. But it bears repeating; particularly for the NASDAQ, its impossible to ignore narrowing leadership. The question of course is what, if anything, this means. $META $MSFT $MSFT $AAPL $AAPL
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Good for $NVDA for announcing a 10-1 stock split. Investors who want to own shares of one of the most important companies of the day shouldn’t have to spend $1,000 to buy one share. First $WMT now Nvidia. Who’s next?
I just posted this the other day! The power of
@X
on full display. $WMT, which is $165 per share, announces a 3 for 1 stock split so that its stock price would be more accessible to employees. Good for them.
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Some recent commentary from consumer focused companies. I'm leaving out the positive commentary, but I sense a trend.
@CourtReagan
@cherylcasone
$TPR: "results in the third quarter were better than expected, although the trends did soften as the quarter progressed and that
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1
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Headline and core
#CPI
in line at 0.4% each, leaving the YOY rates at 4.9% and 5.5% respectively. The major items table is below and as expected, used cars and trucks was up a lot, reversing some recent weakness.
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6
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The
#ADP
employment report wasn't great at all but the details are......something. That's a lot of lost manufacturing.
0
3
15
Just an update: as of right now, this is a top ten worst day in modern S&P 500 history, down 6.75% or so.
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The average price for gasoline is below $3.18. That is less than the price which prevailed prior to the war & the lowest level since Sep 21. Incredibly beneficial for consumers, should feed directly into consumer confidence and provide a tax cut for consumers into holiday season.
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"I look forward to not talking about the Fed." - 2010
"I look forward to not talking about the Fed." - 2011
"I look forward to not talking about the Fed." - 2012
"I look forward to not talking about the Fed." - 2013
"I look forward to not talking about the Fed." - 2014
"I look
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0
13
This jobs report is.....something. Headline number, revisions, earnings, unemployment rate, pullback in gov't hiring. This is......not good for March rate hike probabilities.
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4
14
I guess this shouldn't be surprising any more, but more positive comments from Visa $V on the U.S. consumer. Ticket size is down, but that's largely fuel and card not present volumes ex-travel grew 8%. All sounds pretty solid. (full disclosure; I own $V personally for years).
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4
13
With the $SPX up 25% and the $QQQ up 54%, I think you will join me in thanking
@federalreserve
for raising interest rates an additional 100 bps this year, reducing their MBS holdings by $210B and reducing treasury holdings by $708B. Tight monetary policy + QT boost stock prices!
2
0
13
At the risk of starting an unnecessary debate, I take issue with calling this a "generational buying opportunity" when the $SPX is at levels seen just two years ago. Let's talk when we're at levels seen five or seven years ago.
0
1
13
I wonder if anyone trading anything in '10-'11 thought, just a few yrs in the future, that period would be referred to as "the easy money?"
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Earnings season is just about over but we've seen a slight improvement in the ratio of corporate commentary saying things are better v. that saying its worse. It's a slight improvement yes. But it provides some support for the more positive tone in markets.
1
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"Guarantees a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in" Seriously? No risk? Was that just said?
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12
Hard to overstate how big was yesterday's equity move. Since 1960, the $SPX is almost never up as much as it was yesterday. And while its true that many of these observations occurred *in* bear markets, they all were not. Some were at bottoms; Mar '20, Mar '09...
@michaelsantoli
1
0
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$WMT reported this morning and it looks pretty good. Stock is up ~4.5% right now. The company notes though that upper income households are driving some of its gains. This isn't the first time they've said that; upper income has been driving delivery gains for a few qtrs.
0
0
13
$V Visa is obviously an incredibly important company and its very encouraging to see them say that business trends are remarkably stable. We know the consumer is strong because we know the labor market is strong and this commentary is another corroboration.
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The
#YieldCurve
may not be undefeated, but its in the HOF. Right now, 2s10s is as inverted as its been in 40yrs. While there is certainly a path to reduce
#inflation
without causing a
#recession
, the more inverted this curve, and the longer it stays so, the smaller that window.
1
0
13
Don't look now, but 2s10s curve is back to -100 bps. It got as much as 108 bps inverted on March 8 before SVB led to an incredibly rapid un-inverting. But we're right back near those levels with the two year yield ~40 bps below the effective fed funds rate which may go higher.
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1
12
Even before today, roughly 1/3 of $SPX stocks were still down 20% or more from their 52 week highs suggesting (again) the markets may not be all that disconnected from economic reality. Winners are winning and others are....not.
#StockMarket
$SPY $XLK
0
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Mind you, this is from 2014. Lots of people taking about 1999 again but let’s not forget that this isn’t the first time it’s “1999 again.”
0
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I'm famous!! It appear to have an impersonator. That's all well and good, but the impersonator has as many followers as I do! My self esteem is taking a huge hit! So if you care about truth, justice and the American Way, please retweet this and report that account. TY!
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