Chris Fogarty, PhD
@Cyclone_Fogarty
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Meteorologist/Manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre @ECCC_CHC | Tropical cyclone (hurricane) and many weather related topics | postings are own not employer
Dartmouth, NS, Canada
Joined January 2024
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It will certainly be quite chilly at the beach along the Atlantic Coast of NS - especially the water itself thanks to a phenomenon called 'upwelling' where recent W and SW winds have drawn up cold water from the deep.
#nswx
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Satellite of 'Ernesto' earlier today showing the presence of wildfire smoke wrapping into the circulation likely part of reason it weakened recently. Large waves still spreading well outside of the storm radius.
#nswx
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We have excellent satellite technology allowing us to assess details of the wind in these storms over the ocean - this one is effectively a radar image from a satellite. Wind is deduced from the nature of ocean waves. Ernesto beginning transition to a post-tropical storm:
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This is how ocean swell from a hurricane (Ernesto) appears when it approaches a gradually-sloped beach environment with about 15 seconds between waves and 'run-up' far onto the beach. This is from the White Point Beach live streaming webcam
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@MadelnCanada
Piece of trivia: Point Pelee, ON is farther south than the northernmost part of California...by about 10 km.
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Now we see first signs of eclipse spoiler moving into New Brunswick Monday afternoon (as seen in a few models including the reputable ECMWF). This is why I stay pessimistic right up till day-of.
@DrRob_Thacker
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These daffodil sprouts (photographed below on February 12 in downtown Dartmouth) have continued unabated (even after some snowfalls and freezes) since then and are now 3-4". That's a pretty early start to spring if measured that way!
@NateTWN
@DrRob_Thacker
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Heavy flooding in the Annapolis Valley Nova Scotia. Downpours from very humid airmass due to long-range atmospheric moisture transport from Beryl plus local thunderstorms. This is Halls Harbour this evening (75-125 mm / 3-5" of rain in just a few hours) + already saturated land
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@NateTWN
Here's map of mid-afternoon relative humidity. Anything around our part of the world below 25% is very dry air. Under 15% is 'extreme dry' - near desert-type airmass
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Latest view of Ernesto racing toward the Avalon Peninsula - center still expected to track just south of land. Expect semicircular arcs of rain bands crossing the Avalon evening.
#nlwx
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Rainfall totals so far (2:15 pm) - 4” here in Bridgewater and counting
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I'm in NB now with a work colleague and checking-in on the latest cloud predictions for eclipse day. Here are cloud levels from ECMWF and a mini inset showing clear sky (Cdn model). So it's not a sure-thing that skies will be clear - be ready to drive to adjust.
@DrRob_Thacker
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@weatherman_aaa
That is very true - remember 2022 ... eerily quiet July, Aug, first half of Sept then BOOM - Merbok in the Pacific, Fiona in the Atlantic and deadly Ian in Florida. The atmosphere/ocean can only get so far out of equilibrium before something 'gives'.
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Halifax: Cold front moving through early Thursday. Similar to the weekend, Saturday - no need for alarm...the temperature will indeed drop during the day but there will be sunny periods. Watch your step though - slippery spots.
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Timeline of the wx system. Lot of rain and raw NE wind Thurs. I don't think the urban areas will be all that 'bad' in terms of FRZG rain - that is often a farther-inland / higher-elevation problem. A potential concern in those areas. Official:
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Weather timeline and pattern for Halifax / central NS Thurs-weekend
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As of now it doesn't look like much will be left of Debby later this week in terms of wind but we will keep an eye on rainfall pattern. Here is one model's depiction of how the pattern could look late this week / Saturday.
Hurricane
#Debby
made landfall in Florida today and is expected to slow down as it weakens over the next few days. Considerable uncertainty remains on how this storm will evolve thereafter but it could influence weather in eastern Canada late this week or on the weekend. 🌀
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Here's the summary of June, July, and August-to-date rainfall across parts of the country in terms of %'age above/below normal. Large swath of country below normal but pockets of exceptional rainfall including part of Nova Scotia.
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Evolution of weather satellite since inception of the Dvorak scale (satellite pattern recognition). The Dvorak is still applied to the day in spite of technological advancements!
@AMSTropical
#AMS36Hurr
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Simple advice for this rain-followed-by-freezing wether setup ... wipe down the vehicle's door frames (especially the rubber seal) and maybe even the windows to save on some frustration tomorrow morning or late tonight :P
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@YHZweatherguy
primed by last weekend's rains 😮
⚠️ Flooded roads and hydroplaning conditions are being reported in the Annapolis Valley. Use caution and do not drive through flooded roads.
We are activating our storm coverage and will be closing roads on
@Waze
which will also be synced to Google Maps to help detour motorists
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Cold rain/sleet outlook for Nova Scotia. (sleet is a catch-all for freezing rain and ice pellets that I like to use, and yes, I still use it even though I'm Canadian).
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Seeing a few spots in Nova Scotia tonight with temperatures in the high 20s (mid 80sF) in offshore/downslope winds. Northern tip of Cape Breton:
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Satellite/radar view of our little low today. It's weakening now, but still bringing rain and some gusts. Halifax through to New Glasgow will be within the centre after dark - giving way to a calm, humid night.
#nswx
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I just put this tweet together from our official account.
The
@ECCC_CHC
is charting the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto, currently affecting parts of the Caribbean. The storm is expected to become a hurricane and affect Bermuda this weekend. Impacts in eastern Canada or adjacent waters, if any, would not occur until next week.
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Some thunderstorm action over in Summerside earlier CASGO - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1 2:29 PM ADT
#NSStorm
#PEStorm
@BoomerPEI
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Studying features inside the clouds using weather satellites (basically a meteorologist’s X-ray machine) is crucial for detecting change in a hurricane’s intensity, as outlined in this poster at
#AMS36Hurr
Conference.
#LongBeach
@AMSTropical
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@FranklinJamesL
Very good point James. Thanks for noting and posting about that. I will remember to keep this in mind in my communications.
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@DrRob_Thacker
Here are latest runs from ECMWF and RDPS ... what i notice here is that the upper-atmos feature seems to move southward more quickly than earlier runs so that's a plus!
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@YHZweatherguy
Coldest temps this week could be early Wednesday ... -15 for Halifax maybe. brrrrrrr
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Overview of the past 2 months this summer (since the solstice on June 21). Hot and dry in the North, muggy and wet in the south.
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My video of the event from Hartland NB
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Temps approaching 20C (orange) in far SW Ontario and the US side of the Great Lakes. Windsor broke temperature record for the date, so far 19.6C (67F)
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Weather outlook for long weekend and a brief annotation Re. eclipse timeframe (lower right)
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Latest Canadian high-resolution ensemble product depicting sky condition probabilities. Probability of good eclipse conditions (orange, red) is much higher over Maine and NB versus the populated L. Ontario/Eerie regions
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Photo: Stratus and fog at the head of the Bay of Fundy region in southwesterly wind flow. Islands and headlands are the terrestrial equivalent to the bow of a moving boat creating a 'wake'. Image from the Sentinel satellite July 14 this year.
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Partial lunar eclipse occurs Tues night (toward midnight) and it actually might be clear here (Nova Scotia). Use the slider feature at this link to get a feel for how it will look. If there's upper atmospheric smoke it could add to the cool optics
#nswx
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95% of the country had above normal temperatures Dec-Feb inclusive
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@MurphTWN
@weathernetwork
@meteomedia
The area of Debby's direct remnants are about to traverse Cornwall ON and into southern Quebec (incl Montreal) these next few hours, crossing already-drenched areas such as Granby/Shefford where up to 6"/150mm may have already fallen. This is not good. Flooding reported already.
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@YHZweatherguy
@Robrt_McMillan
@tsimpkin
@ryansnoddon
@KalinMitchelCTV
Here's another (model) view of the hot SW flow pattern and the "plumes of heat" flowing offshore quite some distance in some cases:
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The
@ECCC_CHC
is monitoring 🌀Ernesto, which is expected to intensify and affect Bermuda this weekend. The storm will likely pass over Canadian marine waters, but the impact on land remains uncertain at this time. We are planning an update for this evening.
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Well, it's much warmer a way up north in Labrador and north-central Quebec again today. Halifax has been overcast and only around 13C/55F all day today. Saturated onshore flow off chilly late spring ocean will do that.
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Winter is alive and well over the central portion of the continent today.
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Halifax / central Nova Scotia area weather 'meteogram' for this long weekend:
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Timeline of weather conditions expected this week
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Weather for Friday and the weekend. Saturday looks nice.
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Cold northerly wind pattern this week heading into May - some wet snow especially higher ground over northern Nova Scotia - highs temps upper single digits there (40s F) and low double digits (50s) in the Halifax region. Some sunny periods there at least.
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@MAnderson003
@BMcNoldy
@MiamiRosenstiel
Makes one wonder if tropical cyclones will form ahead of schedule as well. It may not necessarily start sooner ... suppose that will be more a matter of atmospheric conditions and if they respond to the ocean. e.g. position of the ITCZ
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@allistercanada
Indeed a stellar week. The upcoming weekend low may be a bit interesting...possibly having some 'hybrid' structure but at this point not likely 'name-able'. Will monitor though.
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@PH_OSINT
@allistercanada
@chronicleherald
Here's the warning we issued. But it is very hard to predict the full extent and impact of heavy rainfall - even for us meteorologists it isn't until we see a few weather stations with high rain rate that we know with more certainty
#nsstorm
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Some very cool temperatures recently in Eastern Canada ... from Great Lakes eastward. Last night's lows in southern ON/QC could have damaged a lot of plants / flowers - especially if annuals were planted too soon
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@BMcNoldy
@MiamiRosenstiel
...and almost 2 months ahead of the long-term mean (i.e. similar to ~May 10). incredible.
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20 years ago. Here's the report I wrote on 'White Juan'
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Next two total solar eclipse events with very high probability of good sky conditions is only 3-4 years away *if* you have the means to travel and plan:
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@YHZweatherguy
A private station in Middle Musquodoboit had 14 mm of rin during a 5 minute period just before 4 pm!
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@allistercanada
Totals as of 1:00pm with Bridgewater well the way to 100 mm. Coming down pretty hard here now .
#nswx
#nsstorm
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Many agencies/institutions issue several-month outlooks for hurricane activity. Clearly it is a challenge. Some - a single number (circle); others - a range (color bar). The avg of these fcsts is 23 named storms - would entail getting to 'Bud' in the supplementary names list.
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We’re currently at the same sun elevation as we were during the total solar eclipse April 8. Speaking of eclipses - coming soon:
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Stratocu illuminated from below from LA city lights … looks like mammatacumulus - on approach to LAX last night.
#AMS36Hurr
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Weekend weather timeline for this weekend for the Halifax area
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@SBuchanen
@ECCC_CHC
Hi Steve - I'm not aware of deleted comments. I issued this post and haven't modified it or responses in any way. This track map is from NHC (we rebroadcast it) and always stops at day-5. Computer models from other sites do show it tracking south of NS beyond day-5.
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@allistercanada
@claybears
Temperature reached 20 in Ingonish area, certainly helped by downsloping.
@CBmesonet
mentioned it's Ingonish's second warmest March day (for the XIB station, I believe.)
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Clearing and warming up this week. Here's the temperature pattern to expect basically Tues-Thurs. NB, PEI and northern NS likely to see increasing chances of afternoon thunder / downpours as the week moves on.
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A quiet tropical Atlantic hurricane basin usually means an active Pacific one - and that certainly is the case recently. Below is a snapshot of Pacific storms including one making a close brush with Hawaii (Hawaii only rarely gets direct hurricane impacts)
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