Craig Renney
@CLRenney
Followers
3,656
Following
1,228
Media
21
Statuses
604
CTU Director of Policy and Economist. Likes Budgets way too much.
Wellington
Joined June 2017
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Birmingham
• 351089 Tweets
#KamalaCrash
• 213702 Tweets
Medina
• 196179 Tweets
Shapiro
• 183030 Tweets
FNAF
• 178959 Tweets
Twitterの画像
• 178037 Tweets
Adin Ross
• 154864 Tweets
Scott
• 131500 Tweets
Duplantis
• 120220 Tweets
Walz
• 109278 Tweets
Fortnite
• 95352 Tweets
Raskin
• 82464 Tweets
#HindusAreSafeInBangladesh
• 79463 Tweets
Surf
• 68521 Tweets
Faith Kipyegon
• 62078 Tweets
Plymouth
• 53727 Tweets
広島原爆
• 47395 Tweets
Tati
• 45803 Tweets
Alonso
• 42153 Tweets
Jenna Ellis
• 39487 Tweets
NO LES VAMOS A DAR EL GUSTO
• 37968 Tweets
FURIA EN CARAJO CARIÑO
• 26343 Tweets
Poseidon
• 23011 Tweets
Olise
• 22868 Tweets
Stanowski
• 22154 Tweets
原爆投下
• 21119 Tweets
Dead by Daylight
• 19932 Tweets
Keely
• 17599 Tweets
Steelers
• 16086 Tweets
平和記念式典
• 15799 Tweets
Mateta
• 15744 Tweets
#FRAEGY
• 15194 Tweets
Aiyuk
• 13901 Tweets
篠原ともえ
• 12512 Tweets
Lucão
• 11665 Tweets
Luxon has just said that "people don't want more platitudes from the podium". Whilst giving a speech (from behind a podium) that gave no:
- timetable
- policy details
- analysis
- understanding of who will bear the cost of change
36
124
1K
New Zealand Council of Trade Unions analysis has revealed that a select group of landlords would be made tax-cut millionaires if National Party landlord tax breaks are delivered. At the same time 350,000 people, including the disabled, risk seeing their incomes cut. A thread 🧵
50
459
1K
.
@NicolaWillisMP
It's sad that you appear to have chosen to attack me personally when the problem is one of maths, not of politics.
National can clear this up today. Put out a costed, credible fiscal plan - so workers can see what cuts are necessary to deliver your programme.
🧵We saw the Finance Minister and CTU head Craig Rennie catching up at the Parliament cafe recently, like the old chums and former workmates they are, so had wondered when their next partisan hit-job would come.
212
30
284
42
216
1K
Labour Day commemorates the struggle for an eight-hour working day, first won in New Zealand in 1840. It was first celebrated in 1890. It’s not surprising that National wants to get rid of a long-standing public holiday that celebrates workers’ rights.
41
113
865
New analysis by NZCTU has revealed that New Zealanders under the age of 44 would face an effective ‘Pension Tax’ if National brings in its reform of the superannuation age from 65 to 67 in the next term. The tax is much greater than the value of Nationals tax cut proposals. A 🧵
60
305
714
Simply put: the landlord tax cuts are around 12 times the fiscal cost of the Interislander project. Cancelling those tax cuts would also free up billions more for new projects that would reduce New Zealand’s infrastructure gap and help deliver a more sustainable economy.
16
284
688
Grant Robertson was not only my boss. He was a friend and source of inspiration. His workrate was phenomenal, & capacity to understand enormous. Thankfully for me he was also patient, and a thoroughly decent human. I will miss hearing him in Parliament. Otago is lucky to have him
47
65
680
The CTU has costed Nationals Tax Package because it consistently refuses to. The clear take-away from $bns in tax cuts is that it is geared to those on the very highest incomes, with more than 2m New Zealanders getting $2.15 a week or less. A thread...
37
213
663
James Shaw was consistently one of the most thoughtful, decent, and insightful MP's that I have had the honour of working with. Parliament will be a poorer place without him there. Thank you
@jamespeshaw
for your tireless efforts in making Aotearoa a better place.
After eight historic years leading the Green Party, James Shaw has announced he is resigning as co-leader. A new co-leader will be announced on 10th March.
Thank you for everything, James.
166
60
989
15
90
667
The decision today by to government to cut the Minimum Wage in real terms is a sign of what the government thinks about workers. Inflation is currently 4.7%, and a 2% increase means real terms cuts for the lowest income workers across New Zealand. A 🧵
61
199
654
Act has released a policy that it claims would make $1bn of savings on day one. The details of the plan show that its unlikely to deliver anywhere near that - and might actually cost money in the short-run. That's not even the worst part. A short 🧵
38
202
623
The coalition government has released its Budget Policy Statement today, which is supposed to provide guidance and certainty around the forthcoming Budget. Sadly, both of these are in short supply. It reads like 8 pages of excuses for not doing your homework. A thread 🧵
29
209
586
Stu, this is not the insult you believe it is. One day I hope to be as educated, erudite, and eloquent as
@SiouxsieW
. New Zealand is lucky to have her here.
28
45
571
NZ Company profit levels are up 26.2% last year. Genesis energy profit up 600%, Mercury Energy up 233%. Banking profits up to record levels. Supermarkets made $1m in excess profits a day. I support
@NZGreens
in examining a windfall tax & investing in a better economy for everyone
43
108
546
If National doesn't like my costings, it should produce its own for the public. New Zealanders deserve to know why we should have such a huge transfer of wealth to the already wealthy and what services are going to be cut to pay for it.
19
100
550
Joe Biden said, “Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget and I’ll tell you what you value”. This Budget shows the values of this Government - ideological wants before real need. This Budget fails the most important test going, will it help deliver a better Aotearoa. A🧵
36
140
555
April 1st usually sees the usual array of people who think that it’s funny to trick you. I don’t usually expect governments to join in, but this year has seen the Coalition Government provide an example with the Minimum Wage increase of 2%. Only this isn’t a joke. A 🧵
20
150
540
Budgets are about choices. You demonstrate your values through the choices you make. What Kiwi values are on display when we take money from the most vulnerable - and give it to Landlords? It's bad policy, bad economics, and bad for New Zealand.
13
161
537
The CTU has taken a look at the costs of the Cook Strait Ferry upgrade (sometimes called the IReX Project). It's a huge deal, with a huge price tag. The recent decision by the Coalition Government to end it however should be viewed against the other decisions they have made. A 🧵
40
212
528
Inflation at 7.3% hurts everyone - but not everyone equally. Petrol prices up 32.5% annually. Rent is up 4.3%. Food increased by 6.5%. These are costs that can’t be avoided and so will eat into the budgets of those with the least ability to pay.
24
85
508
We should be using the strength of the governments balance sheet to invest through this turbulent period on those things we know will make a long-term difference. Housing, health, education, supporting good jobs and ending child poverty
19
135
490
Ahead of tomorrow's
@NZQandA
Finance Debate, I thought that I should dig around for how the NZ economy is doing. A few charts here on the current state of play against the countries that we usually compare ourselves to. All data here is from the OECD, Stats NZ, and IMF.
55
177
481
Unemployment data today from Stats NZ today shows a rise from 3.4% in March 2023 to 4.3% in March 2024. That's an extra 31,000 people unemployed - with the data showing the fastest rises for women, kaimahi Māori, and Pacific Peoples. The time to act is now. A 🧵
39
165
493
The CTU has costed Nationals election spending plans because it continues not to. The analysis shows that there is a $3.3bn to $5.2bn gap in their spending plans
59
179
476
The CTU is calling on the investors in Supie to do the right thing and pay the company’s workers the money they are owed. Those workers have done everything they can to make the business a success - they shouldn’t have to pay when the company goes under.
39
104
468
It’s hard to put in words what the UK election means to me. I was born in 1979 when Thatcher came to office. My first vote was the Blair election of 1997. I came to NZ because of the Cameron austerity programme. The result today is a chance to turn the page on that history.
51
32
448
A short 🧵 on the GDP numbers. The good news: New Zealand’s economy grew more quickly last quarter (1.7%) than Australia (0.9%), Canada (0.8%), Japan (0.9%), Euro area (0.7%), and the OECD average (0.4%). Both the UK and the US saw economic decline last quarter (-0.1% each).
14
100
433
National was elected to ‘get our country back on track’ – yet it's going to derail a transport link between the North & South Islands, carrying $14bn of freight and 850k people each year. It's an example of the Government knowing the cost of something but not its real value
6
133
438
NZ is now in a technical recession - but only just - with GDP declining by -0.1%. That's equivalent to a fall of $45m in a $69.8bn economy, or about 1 minute of output per day across the quarter. Essentially, its well within the margin of error for GDP estimates
43
123
420
Changes to taxation for landlords have blown out in cost and might have taken the Government's tax plans with them. At the election, the National party claimed that the return of interest deductibility would cost $2.1bn. Now we discover it's going to cost nearly $800m more. A🧵
21
134
422
Fair Pay Agreements passed third reading in the house today. It’s a huge step in making NZ workplaces better, fairer, and more productive. Thank you to everyone who has taken us to this point - now and in the past 30 years. Tonight we celebrate. Tomorrow we organise!
26
53
405
National has identified nearly $2.5bn in cuts to public spending. It calls this "Savings from Back Office Bureaucracy". However an analysis from the CTU has identified many areas that Kiwis would consider front-line and essential. A thread...
57
129
410
For the true Treasury cognoscenti the Financial Statements of the Government for 2023 were provided today. It provides the real and audited state of the Crowns accounts. They are largely as expected, but a few things may be of interest. A short thread...
27
200
408
The CTU has recosted National's Tax Bracket plan using information provided in Budget 23 and from IRD. This shows that they appear to have underestimated the cost of the package by $1.5bn across 4 years. This is mainly because they have not added in the impact of rising wages
35
132
405
ACT has today put out an uncosted, evidence-free, fever dream of proposals that would do nothing to tackle the inflation felt by many New Zealanders & would likely damage our future. A responsible Opposition Leader would rule this out right now. Is that what we have?
45
47
381
Mini-Budget today. Despite the Incoming Government calling for clarity on existing spending, the mini-Budget today does not provide any analysis of the tax cut or spending programme of the incoming Government. It's very thin - it's basically 10 pages of press release. A 🧵
12
86
373
When we look at the situation since COVID began (Q4 2019) the situation for GDP growth is even more marked. New Zealand has outperformed its peers quite significantly on this measure.
5
130
372
Luxon - “I'm a big fan of increasing minimum wages, but when you do it when your economy is growing around 3 to 4 % mark so you can sustain it”. GDP growth is currently 5.1%. Christopher - you can safely join our campaign for a Living Wage! Sign up:
15
62
359
He also said that New Zealanders want "to go back to normal" after COVID-19. I don't want to go back to normal. Normal may have been okay for Mr. Luxon, but it was terrible for too many people. We need to build a better New Zealand.
16
35
357
.
@cjsbishop
in your interview on you ask people to read the ‘discussion document’ on proposed holiday & sick leave changes. Can you tell us where that is? According to MBIE there won’t be any documents available to the public until September
13
115
365
In 2023 MUNZ said "The upgrade of the ferries is not an option for New Zealand...failure to modernise this essential infrastructure leaves NZ exposed to further delays, service outages, expense for industry, & serious safety issues for crew & passengers" 🧵
19
122
364
The decision to repeal the Taxation Principles Reporting Act demonstrates that government doesn’t want an informed debate on tax, or how the tax system is working. The information for the first report would almost undoubtedly have been produced & written.
22
105
353
Unemployment data is out today and looks pretty solid. Unemployment at 3.6% and a record number of people in work, working a record number of hours. There are 113,000 more people in work this this time last year, with more than 2.9 million people in work.
27
88
345
If Luxon delivered the tax bracket adjustment and the 39% rate change as PM, he would make 162 times the gain of a Minimum Wage worker. He would get $349 a week. The Minimum Wage Worker would get $2.15.
11
94
336
National needs to say where the money is coming from. Right now, it’s numbers don’t add up. New Zealanders deserve to know what essential services will be cut so that the very wealthiest can get a tax cut.
29
62
337
National acknowledged today that this windfall gain would not be passed on in lower rents, but would just further fatten the bank accounts of landlords. That $464m could build hundreds of new, warm, dry state houses - doing enduring good in communities across New Zealand
6
106
335
National’s tax plan would enrich those with significant assets – while harming those with the least. National should scrap their unfair & unreliable tax plan which is balanced on the back of the most vulnerable. They shouldn’t pay the price for National’s thoughtlessness.
5
92
329
Inflation has now fallen from 7.2% to 4.7% without significant cuts to government spending, and on a quarterly basis is now within the the target range. Inflation doesn’t appear to have been driven by government spending in any significant way.
9
100
325
I have had a quick go at costing the current coalition negotiation, and the options open to NZ First and the National Party. it’s not an easy task that is ahead of them, and they face some tough decision. A thread…
24
85
324
Child Poverty released today shows that after years of falling child poverty numbers, the number of children estimated to be living in poverty increased on all three of the measures. After years of progress on child poverty we are now going backwards. A thread...
42
90
323
It’s not too late to change. The Government should withdraw this bill and first explain to New Zealanders why nearly $3bn needs to be spent this way, instead of rebuilding the 350 schools that have been paused. It’s time to change track and invest in New Zealand, not landlords.
10
90
318
New Zealanders who read the Budget Policy Statement will find it short of information and short of ideas. It’s not surprising that analysts weren’t allowed to access the government lock-up for this information release, as they would have found little to say. Kiwis deserve better.
6
55
317
GDP data out today shows the economy grew by just 0.2% annually - showing stalled growth and weak demand. On a per capita basis, GDP fell by 2.4%. There has now been 6 successive quarters of per capita decline, the worst since the GFC. The growth figure is camouflaging weakness.
28
95
316
Ed Miller
@labourcartel
and I have a piece up on one of the underreported cuts in the Budget - $47m being taken away from Bus Drivers. Not to support public transport, but to support tax relief for Landlords. Something to think about when the bus is late.
28
115
308
National has not been upfront with voters about the real costs to working people to their proposed changes. Using data from the PREFU, we have quantified the impact. A couple aged 43 and under would lose $175,206 in super payments, after tax. A single person would lose $113,885.
6
112
301
There is no economic case made within this document for tax cuts, particularly tax cuts for higher-income earners or landlords. There is nothing to meet the demands of a growing population with higher needs. Instead, it’s a return to the rhetoric that saw mould in hospital walls
4
76
303
This data also suggests that talk of somehow being "off-track" should be dismissed as a very superficial analysis. It's true that the cost of living is hurting many people. But If New Zealand is off-track then most other countries would welcome the opportunity to join us there.
10
63
303
Neither party's fiscal plan is perfect & both need work. But Nationals is balanced on the back of those who have the least and for that reason alone shouldn’t be considered a credible plan. Adding in problematic assumptions & uncosted policies, it fails the most basic tests.
8
88
298
Tax research released by IRD shows what many New Zealanders have suspected for a long time - the very wealthiest are not paying their fair share in tax. The effective tax rate paid by the average New Zealander (20.2%) is more than twice the rate of the wealthiest families (8.9%).
44
59
299
Data today shows headline CPI inflation at 4%, in line with market expectations, and continuing the fall begun in March 2023. It also shows inflation at twice the increase in the Minimum Wage, taking money out of the pockets of those with the least. A 🧵
7
93
296
There are still challenges, but the accounts don’t show a position of weakness when compared to our international peers. Net debt is lower than forecast at PREFU - there is no debt crisis in these books.
3
116
295
New welfare data is out, and the numbers aren't great. Those in receipt of income support has increased significantly over the past year. Worryingly, sanctions have also risen materially. Taking a dive into the numbers reveals some odd details. A 🧵
13
103
299
The CTU has produced a report showing that there is currently a funding gap in National's announced policies. We have been as generous to National as possible in doing this. This is not partisan - we are just asking for clarity from National as to where the money is coming from.
9
40
292
Richard Wagstaff, NZCTU President has an important and timely piece in the Sunday Star-Times today. There is no need to drag 90-day trials back from the past to which they belong. They don’t work, and that’s according to the government’s own evidence.🧵
22
92
290
On Q+A today (15:00 in the link) Nicola Willis says “the estimates we’ve done for how much the tax indexing will cost are even less than the CTU says”.
I’ve just checked - Nationals figures are $610m more expensive than the CTU’s. That’s quite a miss
18
90
291
CPI data was released today - showing a continuing trend of falling annual inflation. Annual inflation has fallen for 15 months now, suggesting that some of the heat has come out of the cost of living crisis. But the data also showed a number of other challenges - a brief thread.
13
76
291
The picture is slightly better when it comes to our Public Debt. On the IMF measure, our debt is very low by international standards, and would be the envy of most countries we normally compare ourselves to
9
87
284
The Minister of Employment Relations launched a new front on workplace conditions. If implemented it would be arguably the biggest threat to workers' core rights for a generation. Its consulting on if you should be allowed to call yourself an employee. A🧵
8
120
287
This decision will save money in the very short-term but cost everyone in the longer-run. It does so at a huge cost in terms of money already spent, and time and energy wasted. We have a mini-Budget this week - it’s not too late to make better choices
15
45
284
Inflation fell to 6% today. It's still high, but this is the fourth quarter in a row that the CPI has fallen, showing a consistent trend. This appears to demonstrate that the peak of inflation might now be behind us. A short 🧵
5
67
280
Spending on welfare and superannuation payments was below Budget 23 forecast, and fell $5.3bn from due inn part to the discontinuation of COVID support. Spending on Jobseeker Support was below Budget 23 forecasts. Overall, Core Crown Expenses were $621m lower than anticipated.
6
89
282
There is so much more I could go on. But the key message is this. When someone tells you that there is a simple way to save $1bn from MBIE - they are showing that they may not fully understand how it works. They may know the price of things, but not their value.
6
44
278
GDP is important - but arguably employment is even more important. Again, New Zealand can hold its head up high here. Australia and the Netherlands have just nipped ahead of us here, but we are better placed than anywhere else
4
84
277
I’m standing with some workers affected by the ending of support for the pay equity unit. Which is everyone. This will mean it will become harder and more expensive to make sure that people are being paid fairly.
10
86
273
I fear that we are going to get more of this as the election comes closer. I hope that we can really challenge politicians about what public sector cuts would mean, their delivery, and who they would affect. Otherwise it's just a cheap shot at workers who can't shout back
6
42
272
Of the two parties' fiscal plans, National’s indexing of benefits to inflation rather than wages is downright ugly. Reducing debt by taking money from some of the poorest and most vulnerable households in New Zealand is not only questionable ethically, it’s bad economics.
3
79
267
According to the Cambridge Dictionary, a plan is "a method for doing or achieving something". National's 100-point economic plan has lots of things in it - but that's not the same thing as being a plan. And some of the elements could do with more thought. A short 🧵
37
92
265
The IReX is a real-world example of nation-building. We have a rising population, rising demand for trade & travel. We can deliver greater supply-chain security. or pour more $ into unproductive assets like rental housing. At least with the IReX we own something at the end of it
7
52
267
ACT wants to get rid of Fair Pay Agreements. I'm not surprised by this policy but I am saddened. A policy that will allow some of the most vulnerable workers to be able to bargain for better wages and conditions would be gone. It shows you whose side they are on
5
52
260
New Zealand's economic performance compares very favorably against our peers. There are still areas where we have not done well for a long time (i.e. productivity) and areas that we should be better at (i.e. child poverty). Solving those will need further investment, not cuts.
3
63
263
The good news is that none of this needs to happen. It's all a choice for this government. We can choose to invest in New Zealand - not in landlords. We can choose to maintain essential services. Budgets are about values - you show your values with your choices.
7
87
255
Central government expenditure in New Zealand fell 2.2% on average across the past year, so excuses about government spending shouldn’t hold any weight. This is not the time for cuts, it’s the time for investment that will benefit all New Zealanders – not just a select few.
5
67
250
The economy is in a stronger than expected shape, with annual GDP growth of 3.2%. This data also confirms that the economy was not in recession, with revisions to data showing flat growth instead. Growth was widespread, with 14 of the 16 sectors of the economy showing growth.
25
81
248
The $2bn savings made through these cuts will inevitably be paid for through other services, such as health or housing. Making these cuts while providing $2.3bn in tax cuts to landlords is a sign National has lost its moral compass. This is no longer the party of Bill English.
5
77
244
So saddened to hear of the death of Fa’anānā Efeso Collins today, a champion of the Living Wage and worker rights. In his maiden speech to parliament, Efeso said "I’ve come to this House to help. Helping is a deliberate act". He helped.
0
30
245
PREFU should be a wake-up call for any incoming govt. Rather than giving money away in tax cuts, we need to realise the true value of investment in public services today. Rather than causing inflation, they drive down long-term costs and create better outcomes for New Zealanders.
6
54
240
Promises to reduce current inflation by cutting public spending should therefore be treated with a high degree of caution. Instead, those cuts will simply hurt service services, with negative economic benefit overall. Cuts in essential services cost us all in the long-run.
5
58
243
MBIE is also responsible for the immigration system - it's the biggest part of MBIE. We have record immigration right now, and we are actively seeking more people for hard-to-fill roles. Is ACT saying that it would cut staffing in immigration and visa processing?
13
39
244
Last quarter, our GDP growth of 0.9% was very impressive in comparison to our peers - only Japan beating us in terms of GDP growth.
5
74
243
Government is squeezing the cost of school meals while giving landlords $3bn in tax reductions. This is despite the Minister of Finance admitting today that it won’t do anything for rising rents. Everything in this Budget is a choice. The Government has chosen the wrong approach.
9
59
241
It’s difficult to come to any other conclusion from this analysis that this government is out of touch with the realities of workers on the Minimum Wage. Low-income and vulnerable workers need to be protected from changes such as this. We all pay for failing to make work pay.
14
60
242
The landlord tax cut costs an average of $232 per person, per year before inflation After inflation adjustment, each New Zealander would be paying an average of $139 per person, per year in 2025 dollars. Do you believe that you are getting 12 times the value from that policy?
5
70
239
Data released by Stats NZ shows that annual inflation was 3.3%, falling by nearly half from a year ago. This data is weaker than expected – highlighting problems in the wider economy, supporting other data which suggests we might be heading back into falls in economic output”. 🧵
14
69
241
National says it will pay for its plan with cuts - which at this size is barely credible. But look at who is winning from the package - very high-income earners and landlords. Everyone else will face degraded public services when they need them.
3
38
235
Nicola Willis said that her tax package would not “require any additional borrowing”. Treasury says the government will now borrow an extra $17.1bn by 2028. Tax cuts cost nearly $10bn. Without cuts, borrowing would be lower. Future taxpayers are going to pay for tax cuts today
7
63
230
We shouldn't accept that job losses and families being thrown into poverty are the right way to manage the economy. Add to this real-term cuts to the minimum wage and cuts to welfare, and there are all the ingredients needed for worker exploitation and increasing child poverty.
8
60
228
At the same time National would help pay for this change by changing the indexation of main benefits to CPI rather than wages. This would save $2bn - almost identical to the cost of the landlord tax giveaway. This would cost thousands for each beneficiary across the same period.
3
60
226
It's important to understand that this isn’t an accident. The government has made a choice. Its chosen to set the Minimum Wage at a level that will make people poorer in real terms. Its chosen to make tackling child poverty harder. Its choice won’t tackle inflation or save jobs.
3
62
224
Inflation fell to a two-year low of 4.7% today. If we measure what has been happening over the past three months inflation is now back at the Reserve Bank target rate. But these high-level numbers hide some really interesting things going on underneath. A 🧵
9
59
220