Lobster, King Bow-Tied
@BowTiedLobster
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Follow me to understand people. You are not your thoughts. Flagship stories: Gurren Lagann, Sousou no Frieren, Ender’s Game. Not advice. @LobsterFinance
Joined May 2021
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Pinned Tweet
Humans experience uncomfortable emotions. Successful people know that emotions are a valuable guidance system.
Emotions come whether I want them to or not. My emotions help me become who I want to be.
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A master propagandist manipulates you without your “consent” since his most effective techniques operate through subconscious channels. But you may not want to unfollow him if he also provides useful information.
People who get what I just said understand why I do what I do.
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If your goal is to help others avoid an outcome, direct their attention to the superior alternative.
When you focus on something, you face in that direction. Humans walk towards what they face. You can do better than giving others the relevant facts. Point them towards victory.
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You’re young and tech savvy. You walk in the warm sunlight, and dart around obstacles just for the fun of it. You are beautiful: if not now, then soon. You cherish your health and push hard to become strong.
I’m honored to be followed by such a powerful individual.
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If you are the type of person who instinctively helps others it is useful to know: many do not want help. Avoid overstaying your welcome. Don’t get dragged down to their level.
Extend a hand but be prepared to leave. Don’t attempt the impossible.
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If you’re smart you know your time has massive value. If you use it where you have true edge you have a future of parabolic returns.
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“One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, until there is something to do.”
Wiki: “In 1973, Soros and Rogers founded the Quantum Fund. From 1973 to 1980, the portfolio gained 4,200% while the S&P advanced about 47%.“
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Why the poor should risk more and the rich should risk less.
A thread on the marginal utility of a dollar at various levels of wealth.
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When you level up big time in health, you feel it in your stance. Erect, but languid. You project strength effortlessly.
Eyes are on you now. It’s ok to fluff up with pride. After all, you earned it.
Do you feel the heat of the sun? It all comes from the core. You are the sun.
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Make sure you understand this: successful men stand out.
You can do this through competitive drive, ego which desires attention, thoughtless bravery, intransigent dedication to values: all are good.
The man who shrinks into the crowd follows the wrong half of the gene pool.
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Positive and negative affirmations are not magic.
How it works: direct your attention to a phenomenon, and you orient your aim. Where you face, there you'll go. Choose good targets.
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I did some writing on social status and why it's such an effective persuasion tactic. I'll post this to the free side of the stack eventually so might as well share the draft now.
I'll edit more and add to it so I'm not going to publish it to the stack right away.
He feigns contempt when it comes to people who threaten his business model.
This is because using social pressure to make followers think of those threats a low status is far more effective persuasion than any form of formal disproof. This is anti-education embodied.
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Cultivate and grow your relationships in real life, and you will be a happier man. Walk outside in the warm sunlight, and you will be a healthier man. Join with your band of brothers to build a new society, and you will be a glorious man.
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Socialization is a skill. Many men, particularly highly intelligent men, logically process the social game.
If that’s you (it was me), you will feel behind for a while. Instincts are fast. If you keep learning though, you will understand it all. There’s power in comprehension.
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When I stopped looking at crypto prices regularly, my life changed significantly.
There's nothing like getting a good night of sleep and feeling invigorated to take over the world with your energy focused where you are great.
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If you write more often you augment your power level substantially.
It especially helps if you read your words closely, reflect upon them, and aim to improve that writing at higher levels of abstraction. Living is growing.
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You don't understand a guy? Ask him to explain and your humility impresses him. Talk down to him and if smart he burns the bridge immediately. Smart people know the value of their time.
Do you want smart friends and mentors? Show respect to strangers. You can adjust later.
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Want to hear something funny? The smarter a man, the easier he laughs about his mistakes.
Why? He gets it right all the time. A mistake is a special moment. It adds spice to life.
If you are happy after your mistakes, people think you are smarter than you really are.
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I'm pretty unstructured with my time.
I keep large stretches open, and when I feel like working on something, I crank out concentrated bursts. I'm confident this optimizes productivity.
If you do activities out of a genuine interest, you're guaranteed to hit deadlines.
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Affirmations reorient your goals. Anything you notice feels important, moving you in that direction. Look at it enough and you start a snowball: most people don't even realize it. When possible, face your aims, and turn away from what you want to rise above.
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Crowd persuasion: “Everybody’s doing it.” Look for “people are…”, “people want…..” Readers are inclined to pursue the behavior that follows. Why? (1) Humans imitate, (2) safety in numbers. Emphasizing the crowd’s size or attaching a visualization strengthens the effect.
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Imagine what would happen if you became skilled at investing by thinking in probabilities? You’d be a rich man who lives in a big, beautiful house. You’d sleep like a baby at night, keeping you healthy, intelligent, and productive. Free time to play online is a cherry on top.
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Why is Lobster here? When I joined the Jungle as an OG, my goal was to add value to a community of smart and honest people.
As I learned, the path became clear: pointing out bull’s flaws is where I add the most value.
A man of character makes good on his commitments.
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Time to sound uncool. A 10% annual return is a great outcome. Consistent 15% is amazing and probably not doable.
“What? Nerd Lobster. Way too low.” Reality is you can’t think this and keep your gains also. Not good outcomes there.
That’s why “focus on your business” is right.
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“Make life as easy as possible. Figure out what you’re good at and become the best. If you lean into your strengths, you will pull ahead of the pack.”
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Generally speaking, the louder their brags, the larger their unspoken losses.
That’s the thing to understand about financial social media: everybody gets to hide their losses if they want.
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Elite performers relentlessly pursue a desired goal.
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Being cunning as snakes is one of mankind’s great gifts, and it’s good to leverage that skill as appropriate.
But honestly has its charms. When you say what you think and you mean what you say, your whole being goes into alignment. That truly is life on easy mode.
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Everyone who makes it explores many paths and discovers dead-ends along the way. I call this using the scientific method on my own life. For me, this is fun: it's like searching every dungeon room for treasure.
Victory comes when you don't expect results immediately.
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In my world it is high status to help good people.
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@BowtiedCuda
Bull is counter-signaling this with his quote tweet because Bull has a persuasion routine to push his readers to think that money is the only thing that matters on this topic.
Sorry to hit your notifs Cuda, this is just a public service feed post.
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Why listen to people when you are smarter than almost all of them?
There are many ways a man can help you understand the world better.
If you put some careful thought into it and draw your own conclusions, there’s a nugget for you to keep.
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If you're a genius it's hard for people in the middle to understand you.
You're better off cultivating a smaller audience of highly intelligent individuals.
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Let's be honest here. A life of "just survive" is not a good life, not at all.
I will thrive, extend my claws, roar at the sun, soar upwards to achieve glory, erupt to the heavens, and if it is meant to be, I will explode outwards like a supernova.
This is the way of men.
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Write posts you love to read.
Everything you read affects you. Everything you say affects you more. You are your most important follower.
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This is a dangerous question, and I wanted to help.
I hope readers find this useful.
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A thread on investing in crypto into the jaws of a possible recession. I use Nasdaq peak-to-trough drawdowns in recession to estimate the peak-to-trough drawdown in btc should a future recession occur.
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Crowd persuasion: “everybody is doing it.” Humans have a herd element: unless you have the confidence of a genius, sticking with the pack feels safe.
Look for “people are,” “most people are,” “many people are.” The activity visualized? Readers will be inclined to follow.
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Affirmations work. Why? They change your goals.
If you want something badly enough, you seek ways to get it. If you look for something, you are more likely to find it.
Think and read words that turn you towards the peaks you want to climb.
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Remember, you can learn from anything.
You just have to be willing to learn.
A fight, a failure, discomfort, distress… these are all opportunities, whether you know it or not.
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The most warped thing is how they don’t want you to care about yourself. This whole hemisphere is wrapped up in a paroxysm of ego suppression.
I say, reject all that. Most of you would be better off if you looked in the mirror and said “I’m great.” Balance the scales.
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If you learned from me about markets, thus you booked a big gain on ETH, thus you dodged this rug pull in a big way:
(1) Congratulations.
(2) YOU did that. It wasn’t easy.
(3) I’m proud of you.
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People love a confident man. This is actually a rational response. Confidence signals competence, and when you reassure an uncertain audience, you add value to them.
Comforted people do better work.
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When you pay attention to anything, your subconscious immediately upgrades the importance of that thing in your neural network. This impacts future decisions. If it's factual, but not useful, it attacks your decision-making process, and is therefore negative value to you. Avoid.
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Winners are outliers. They do what others cannot.
When you stand out from the pack, others tug at your back and snap at your heels. Respond with pride: these are signals of success.
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If the mother of your children has amazing genes, your bloodline will improve. Your kids will have a better life.
Vet her father, brothers, and uncles. Since humans are sexually dimorphic, certain traits show up mainly in the men and certain other traits mainly in the women.
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We are ramping up the writing. Top priority is additional free posts that help people further understand why we care so much about the details we describe in the public service feed.
Thanks to the multiple people who encouraged us to direct our writing attention there.
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This is a celebratory post for all of my friends who have successfully held the ramp up to 52k. May the move result in benefits to you and magnify your future.
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It's key to understand that people in high volatility portfolios sell lows. That's the issue with over-high concentration. I even say in one of my paid essays that most of you are smart people who know crypto is the future of Finance.
You are right about that.
This is a dangerous question, and I wanted to help.
I hope readers find this useful.
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A common tactic of The Side of Lies is to accuse The Side of Truth of doing what The Side of Lies is itself doing.
If you know your history you know this all too well.
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Be rich.
Live in a big beautiful house with your many, many kids.
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There’s tons of opportunity. People capitalize. You capitalize on more if you think carefully and strategize.
Do you see chances that others can’t see? Imagine the possibilities.
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One useful way to more effectively measure your own performance is to categorize investments into what is called an “alpha portfolio” and a “beta portfolio.” You don’t trade a beta portfolio: you add assets and wait. Markets go up over time: I call this “harvesting market beta.”
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I have many more paid subscribers. I’ll start sharing periodic updates (>weekly) about what I’m looking at in the market for planning trades.
Be aware: I’m in year 3. It takes 4-8 years to be profitable. If you pay you’d better be reading for my ideas. Assume I’m unprofitable.
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Congratulations to all my friends who have successfully held the ramp up to $60k. May it lead to benefits to you and magnify your future.
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How do I know you are a powerful man?
When I lose sight of you for a moment, then turn back, already you are throwing your weight around in an arena where you know you can be a master.
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@bowtiedbull
This sounds smart if you are not a finance expert (why he does it). Reality: 2nd-order effects.
Going into debt without a very good reason drastically amplifies your issues in tail events. If you’ve read Taleb’s books you have the knowledge to synthesize this point
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You are capable of leadership.
Leadership is not merely a question of giving orders that are followed. A leader knows what his followers want, and honors them to the best of his ability.
A leader is obeyed, respected, yes, even adored. Class surrounds itself with other people.
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When you become calmer, more analytical, you notice that people unwittingly reveal themselves to you. A guy shares you his wisdom about what “all people are like?” That’s an admission.
Another throws insults at you that confuse you since they don’t apply? That’s a confession.
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A tricky aspect of sales is you talk like whom you want to attract.
People think identity -> behavior. It's actually a loop. The flow is at least as strong the other way.
You become elite when you act elite. Do you have the force of character to become who you want to be?
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I see Lord Elon hid the likes on here.
My first reaction is irritation, because I want all the information I can get. But I like the incentive structure: people feel emboldened to express their opinion with the like function.
Do check marks still see everything?
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Money isn’t important. Okay, it’s important. Point is everyone realizes that money is a tool. There are way more valuable things than money.
What are the biggest deathbed regrets? It’s all about your relationships. Know this and you’ll get it right where it matters.
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You are young, and you know how to stay calm. There are heights ahead of you.
People you meet will have wisdom to teach you. You have a long road ahead with many challenges to beat and rewards to enjoy. You are just getting started.
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You don't deserve anything.
Remember to be grateful.
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Nobody likes to hear “I have a degree so you must respect me.” With some Bull followers you see the same pattern, except it’s “my net worth makes you inferior.” They’re the same as what they think they hate.
This shows insecurity. Successful people don’t talk this way.
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You like what you like. That won’t change.
Disregard people who expend effort trying to get you to focus away from where you have power. They are attacking your ability to accept reality, remain calm, and go out and conquer.
There are a million ways in which you are great.
Say you like quiet music & prefer soft noises. You learn this correlates to higher genetic intelligence.
How will you respond? I move on. It’s not something I can change.
I focus away from that information, on to problems I can solve, because that’s how my life gets better.
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A little mind dump about on-chain analytics and markets epistemology that I promised an online friend.
This one isn't paywalled. Here's my favorite line:
"In markets you seek conclusions about price. Price is negotiated by people. Not just a couple of people. All the people."
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Evergreen. If you are relentlessly focused on “How do I add value?” “How do I add value?” “How do I add value?”
Then, modulo effects of chance or fate (that’s life) you will be pleased by how easily you rise.
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If you follow me you are a bright individual who can use your intelligence to overcome any hurdle: people are remarkably resilient.
Sure it might not work but nothing is guaranteed in life which makes me make sure to have fun along the way.
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Many of you are Asahi, the ace. You have great talent. Then, for a time, you don't see your potential anymore.
bull blocks your view. This puts your power in great danger.
Watch this thread to understand this struggle and know how to beat it.
@bowtiedbull
I'm going to spend some time on a compilation post from Haikyuu. One character's arc is all about building up the determination that bull posts like this are designed to throw down.
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This is the end of a long thread where I talk about how making sure you "feel" the risk level of your overall portfolio will help you invest better.
Investing is a negotiation with yourself about the stress you can bear. My thanks to Christian for the compliment.
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You don’t have infinite chances but you do have more than one or two. Which is why I firmly believe you will get better results if you are willing to have a bit of fun with life.
Anxiety never made any difference to what is going to happen.
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