Jake Weber
@BioStockAnalyst
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Biotech stock analyst. Tweets and opinions are not investment advice.
Joined March 2023
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Last yr big pharma paid an avg of 3.1X times peak sales estimates to acquire a co,
At $10 bil peak sales it would take about $30 bil to acquire $VKTX,
Even after its 111% rise today the Mcap still only about $8.5 billion,
Ph2 data generally had below avg multiples last yr,
Raymond James⬆️ $VKTX $115 was $37/OP~now models VK2735 peak sales@ $10B /raised odds of success to 80%.
Says, 14.7% unadj'd change from baseline body weight in highest dose arm suggests that VK2735 is meaningfully more potent than tirzepatide and likely as potent as retatrutide.
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🧵The Most Important Chart in Biotech Investing
There’s a wavelike pattern that the best
#biotech
#stocks
tend to follow,
Understanding what drives this "life cycle of a biotech stock" is the key to
#investing
success,
Here's what you need to know...(1/14)
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40 Biotech Specialist funds I track had about $29 bil returned across 137 M&A deals last year.
Here's a look at the Top 20 funds based on fresh capital from public M&A deals last yr that is ready to back to work in the biotech sector
$50B of biotech M&A has occurred in the past 100 days
Of that, ~$30B was held by “active” investors – e.g., mutual funds, healthcare-dedicated funds and hedge funds...
All of which is likely to get put back to work in the sector in near term
(thx Jack Bannister at Leerink)
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🧵on Biotech M&A in 2023 & why 2024 will be another big yr w/ great charts from
@oppenheimer
If you excl 2019 megadeals ( $BMY $100b for Celgene + $ABBV $86b for Allergan) last yr was arguably best M&A yr of the past decade w/ 30 deals for $132 bil…(1/10) 👇
$XBI $IBB
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Great infographic of the targeted radiopharmaceutical landscape from
@RBC
$CLRB & $ATNM are my favorite small-cap buyout candidates,
They aren't backed by biospecialists but both are dirt cheap and should have marketed products by next yr plus a solid pipeline that should
Which BioSpecialist investors have positions in the next potential radiopharma buyout?
Baker Bro's has a 1.3% stake in $CATX (Perspective Therapeutics)
Acorn Bioventures has a 6.3% and Sofinnova a 5% stake in $YMAB,
*Telix $TLX and Clarity CU6 are both Australian listings
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There have been 14 >$1 bil public biotech acquisitions this year,
On average 5 biotech specialist funds owned 22% of the co. being acquired,
One Bio-Specialist had a stake in 5 of these deals…(1/9) 🧵👇
$XBI $IBB
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Top 11 Biotech Buyout Candidates according to Wells Fargo,
Great infographic but it’s missing one key piece,
Which biotech specialist funds own them?
Let’s take a look…🧵 (1/X)
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
Image credit:
@Anders_Research
The first thing you should look at when hunting for the next biotech buyout is ownership,
If the top biotech specialist funds own it then the odds for a buyout deal are much better,
The next thing you can do is...(8/X)
Chart Credit
@BowTiedBiotech
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OrbiMed raised $4.3 bil for 3 new life science funds to invest in private co’s, royalty/credits opportunities and an Asia fund,
Orbimed is one of the best Biotech Specialist investors. Its had a stake in 5 +$1 bil buyout deals this year…(1/6) 🧵👇
h/t
@BioPharmaDive
$XBI $IBB
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83% of public biotech stocks debuted in the last 10 years,
Biotech is a 'survival of the fittest' industry,
Only the strong survive and cash is the lifeblood,
But the problem with the current batch of
#biotech
#stocks
is...🧵
Chart from
@IAmBiotech
$XBI $IBB
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Everything that's wrong with the Inflation "Reduction" Act in a nutshell:
$PFE will aim to shift its cancer portfolio from 94% small molecule drugs to 35% biologics by 2030,
IRA incentivizes development of more expensive biologic drugs that are also more difficult for
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Big Pharma has plenty of capacity for M&A deals:
@Jefferies
estimates over $500 bil in cash + debt available for M&A after Q1 24,
@Stifel
says Big Pharma's firepower could stretch out to $1 trillion,
For perspective 2019 had a record +$180 bil in biotech M&A, including 2
No megadeals in biotech so far this yr, but on track for record amount >$1 bil deals,
2 biggest deals this yr:
$VRTX paid $4.9 bil for $ALPN
$GILD paid $4.3 bil for $CBAY
Bolt-on deals likely to continue to be the dominant story in 2024, which means we could also see more of
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Deep Track Capital has owned 5 of 13 public biotechs acquired for >$1 bil this year, incl 2.6% of $PNT that $LLY acquired for $1.4 bil. yesterday,
7 of its cos. have been acquired for over $3 bil and a 62% premium on avg,
Now lets look at it's top holdings now...(1/3)
$XBI
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Baker Bros had 7 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $10.5 bil to the fund,
Here's Baker Bro's top 10 holdings as of December,
$MDGL is may favorite take over candidate on the list, they should get an FDA approval for the 1st treatment
40 Biotech Specialist funds I track had about $29 bil returned across 137 M&A deals last year.
Here's a look at the Top 20 funds based on fresh capital from public M&A deals last yr that is ready to back to work in the biotech sector
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Excellent article
@AimeeRaleigh13
!
Still $332 billion in deal capacity for these 9 Big Pharma's after several multi-billion dollar deals in the hot areas: obesity, immunology, oncology & neuro...
But fast follower approach leading to some crowded fields,
Full blog def worth a
"Sentiment & Themes Emerging From JPM 2024"
Inaugural blog in From The Trenches from Atlas' Aimee Raleigh on the big themes and outlook for 2024.
Insightful summary of where things are.
@AimeeRaleigh13
@atlasventure
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💥First of my Top 10 Buyout Targets Acquired!
$BMY pays $58/sh for $MRTX ($4.8 bil) w/ CVR $12/sh ($1 bil) for a 48% premium (30D avg),
That's a 96% gain from my post in Aug... see thread below for my other 9 biotech buyout candidates 👇
$XBI $IBB
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3 public biotech’s were acquired last week for +$6.5 bil:
10/3: $LLY paid $1.4 bil for $PNT (6 bio-specialists own 18.9%)
10/5: $KYKOY paid $387 mil for $ORTX (2 bio-specialists own 10.4%)
10/8: $BMY paid $4.8 bil for $MRTX (11 bio-specialist own 41.8%)
It pays to follow the
💥First of my Top 10 Buyout Targets Acquired!
$BMY pays $58/sh for $MRTX ($4.8 bil) w/ CVR $12/sh ($1 bil) for a 48% premium (30D avg),
That's a 96% gain from my post in Aug... see thread below for my other 9 biotech buyout candidates 👇
$XBI $IBB
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Baker Bro’s is the largest Biotech Specialist Fund based on its publicly traded holdings,
It holds 104 stocks worth about $19.9 bil,
The Top 4 are 85% of the portfolio: $SGEN, $BGNE, $INCY and $ACAD,
To put the funds size in perspective consider this…(1/X)🧵👇
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$BIIB's $6.5 bil takeover of $RETA announced today is the 3rd largest biotech acquisition this year...and like clockwork some of the biggest owners:
Perceptive 6.6%
Boxer Capital 3.7%
Deep Track 2.2%
Sofinnova 1.9%
Clarus 1.3%
Want to know the best biotech M&A targets, keep an
For the doubters that don't believe biotech specialist ownership is a good M&A predictor...let's look at the Top 7 deals this year...🧵 (1/X)
Image Credit:
@paras_biotech
#biotech
$XBI $IBB
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Avoro Capital is biotech specialist fund that holds 41 public positions worth about $6.9 bil,
Top 10 holdings are 73% of the portfolio: $APLS, $HZNP, $UTHR, $SRPT, $ARGX, $MDGL, $BMRN, $FOLD, $SGEN, $SGEN, $ASND,
Here’s a snapshot of the rest of the portfolio…(1/X) 🧵👇
$XBI
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I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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The last big short squeeze in biotech sent the most heavily shorted stocks up 85% on avg over 2.5 mos. in the summer of 2022,
$XBI also rallied 48% during that stretch, trading above $95 intra-day a few times in mid-August,
Let's hope history rhymes...
h/t
@LifeSciVC
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6 of the Top 10 Biotech M&A Deals in 2024 were public companies,
At least one biotech specialist fund had a stake in each with an avg of 6 specialists owning 25.8%,
Top Specialist Funds for Public M&A Deals so far this year:
RA Capital - 3 deals (9.9% of $INBX, 6.1% $CBAY,
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My Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout List:
#1
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM)
MCap: $1,376 mil
EV: $1,202 mil
Focus: Rare Disease
Stage: Marketed
Here's why $RYTM is a great buyout target...🧵(1/11)
*Not a ranking, All 10 are good buyout targets
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
#stocks
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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Which BioSpecialist investors have positions in the next potential radiopharma buyout?
Baker Bro's has a 1.3% stake in $CATX (Perspective Therapeutics)
Acorn Bioventures has a 6.3% and Sofinnova a 5% stake in $YMAB,
*Telix $TLX and Clarity CU6 are both Australian listings
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These were the most active Biotech Specialist Investors in Q1 2024 led by some of the usual suspects: Orbimed, RA Capital, Alexandria Venture, Cormorant and Arch
h/t
@Oppenheimer
$XBI $IBB
58% of VC capital went into clinical-stage biotechs in Q1 2024,
In Q1 2023, 47% of private investment was in pre-clinical biotechs,
5% of biotech deals in Q1 2024 already had an approved drug or were applying for approval,
In short, private investors are taking drugs further
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Last yr $NVO had $21.1 bil in rev from GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic, Rybelus & Wegovy),
$LLY had $12.5 bil in rev from GLP-1 drugs (Trulicity, Mounjaro & Zepbound),
And
@jpmorgan
projects GLP-1 sales will hit $100 bil in the US alone by 2030 w/ LLY and NOVO controlling 80% mkt shr,
$LLY
❖ Share of Americans who are considered overweight or obese has risen over the last 3 decades
As obesity rates rise in the U.S. and worldwide, new weight-loss drugs surge in popularity
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Here's a look at the Top 10 Holdings of these Biotech Specialist funds:
Green Highlights = >10% ownership of SO (24 total stocks)
Blue Highlights = Stocks in my Top 10 Biotech Buyout List (includes $MDGL, $APLS, $AXSM, $AMLX, $SWTX, $MRTX)…(3/X)
$XBI $IBB
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US VC funds are sitting on $311 bil in cash,
According
@PitchBook
US VC’s have only invested half of $435 bil raised during pandemic boom (2020-2022),
VC’s have plenty of dry powder and a lot of it is earmarked for biotech…(1/10) 🧵👇
h/t
@financialtimes
$XBI $IBB
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1st day of
#JPM2024
starts w/ 3 M&A deals:
$JNJ pays $2 bil for $AMAM @ 105% premium
$MRK pays $680 mil for $HARP @ 118% premium
$NVS pays $250 mil for Calypso (private)
$XBI $IBB
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The Biotech have not and have nots, it's all about the PIPE financings with a record $5.7 billion raised in Q1
h/t
@statnews
$XBI $IBB
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Recent targeted radiopharmaceutical M&A deals:
10/3/23: $LLY pays $1.4 bil (87% prem) for $PNT (Ph 3 - prostate cancer)
12/26/23: $BMY pays $4.3 bil (104% prem) for $RYZB (Ph 3 - gastro cancer)
3/19/24: $AZN pays $2 bil (97% prem) for $FUSN (Ph 2 -prostate cancer)
Future
$AZN's $2 bil deal for $FUSN (+$400 mil CVR) will return around $750 million upfront to 8 biotech specialist investors that owned 37.5% of FUSN:
Avidity 9%
Deerfield 8.9%
Perceptive 6.5%
J&J Innovation 5%
Orbimed 4.3%
Pivotal Bioventure 2.2%
Invus 1.4%
Sofinnova 0.2%
$XBI $IBB
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Boxer Capital is a top Biotech Specialist fund that’s owned 5 of 14 >$1 bil biotech acquisitions this yr, incl 4.7% of $MRTX which was acquired by $BMY for $4.8 bil last wk,
Now let’s take a look at Boxer's top 10 holdings…(1/9) 🧵👇
$XBI $IBB $MRK $RXDX $GSK $BLU $LLY $PNT
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$MRK seeking M&A deals up to $15 bil in order soften the blow from loss of exclusivity of Keytruda in 2028,
Keytruda was $25 bil of $60.1 bil in sales in 2023 so it's a big hole to fill,
MRK paid $10.8 bil for Prometheus last yr & $11 bil for Acceleron in 2021,
In the last
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My Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout List:
#6
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
MCap: $3,171 mil
EV: $2,972 mil
Focus: Metabolic
Stage: NDA
Here's why $MDGL is a great buyout target...🧵(1/12)
*Not a ranking, All 10 are good buyout targets
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
#stocks
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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$MRK's $11.5 bil bet on Acceleron in 2021 pays off w/ FDA approval of Wenrevair for PAH,
When deal closed in 2021 analysts were projecting peak sales of $2.2 bil for sotatercept (Wenrevair), now estimates are as high as $5-$7.5 bil,
Looks like MRK got a great deal but
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Wow, I knew it was big but didn't realize the $4 bil $MRK paid Daiichi was biggest licensing upfront payment in history!
MRK & $AZN don't mind paying a lot upfront and Daiichi likes to out license
h/t
@TimOpler
w/ another excellent slide deck this week
$XBI $IBB
Huge deal from $MRK, paying Daiichi $4 bil upfront and total deal worth up to $22 bil for 3 ADC cancer-targeting drugs,
Lead program is HER3-DXd which BLA will be filed in March 2024 for EGFR-mutated NSCLC ,
MRK making a big bet to plug the Keytruda LOE in 2028 👇
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Nice snapshot of the SMID-cap NASH names after the $LLY tirzepatide data this week,
I like risk/reward of $MDGL ahead of the March 14 PDUFA date and still a lot more upside for $VKTX if Ph2 obesity & NASH readouts in 1H 24 go well,
Both are good targets for Big Pharma buyouts
Will the GLP-1 giants kill the NASH smid-caps?
Tough week for some smid-cap NASH stocks
2/6/24 $LLY announced 📢
• positive Ph2 tirzepatide MASH (AKA NASH) data
⇨ MASH resolution (74%) of Pts with no worsening of fibrosis at 52 wks📸
Tirzepatide (wkly injectable GLP-1 &
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Here’s
@GENbio
’s Top 10 Biotech Takeover Targets of 2024 & the BioSpecialist Funds that own them bc...
99% of $82.9 bil across 36 cash buyouts last yr went to the “Core” biotechs backed by at least 1 BioSpecialist investor,
It pays to follow the smart money…(1/11) 🧵👇
h/t
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Kyverna Therapeutics $KYTX is 5th biotech IPO of 2024,
S-1 on Jan 31 was offering 11.1 mil shares at $17-$19,
S-1 on Feb 6 incr to 14.5 mil share at $20-$21,
Priced today at $22 raising $319 mil + $47 mil if underwriters exercises,
More momentum for Biotech IPO's w/ KYTX now
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2 more biotech IPO's today:
$ANRO Alto Neuroscience raised $129 mil, priced at $16 (top of proposed range $14-$16)
2 lead drugs in Phase 2b trials for major depressive disorder w/ readouts in 2H 24 & 1H 25
No biotech specialist owners...(1/2) 👇
$XBI $IBB
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The list is out. Here's the first 10 drugs subject to price "negotiation" for Medicare Part D under the IRA which will take place in 2026 (assuming legal challenges don't hold it up)
These 10 drugs accounted for $45 bil in 2021 Medicare Part D spending,
Here are the Big Pharma
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Deerfield purchased 3.58 mil shares of $FUSN in Q4, increasing its total stake to 8.9% of FUSN SO months before $AZN paid $2 bil for the radiopharma stock,
Here's Deerfield's top 10 holdings, which includes 34% of the cancer drug developer $NUVL's SO. That position is one-third
$AZN's $2 bil deal for $FUSN (+$400 mil CVR) will return around $750 million upfront to 8 biotech specialist investors that owned 37.5% of FUSN:
Avidity 9%
Deerfield 8.9%
Perceptive 6.5%
J&J Innovation 5%
Orbimed 4.3%
Pivotal Bioventure 2.2%
Invus 1.4%
Sofinnova 0.2%
$XBI $IBB
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Strong bounce for biotech stocks with $XBI +12.9% off last week's intra-day low,
XBI still -13.9% YTD but next chart shows this was a good bounce off key long-term support...(1/3) 👇
@StockCharts
$IBB
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$VRTX's $4.9 bil buyout of $ALPN is 6th >$1 bil biotech buyout this year,
Avg deal size is $2.5 bil and a 64% premium,
At least 1 Biospecialist fund had a stake in each buyout this yr and on avg 6 funds owned 27.7%,
$XBI $IBB
$VRTX acquires $ALPN for $4.9 bil in cash deal,
$65/shr of ALPN is 72% premium to the 30-day MA,
ALPN's lead asset entering into Phase 3 for IgA Nephropathy in 2H 24,
8 Biotech Specialist Funds own 41.5% of ALPN:
Dacheng Capital (China) owns 12.7%
RA Capital 7.5%
Paradigm
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Is $XBI a good proxy for biotech performance over the long run?
XBI peaked above 90 in 2015, around where it sits today... but has it really been a lost decade?
XBI is equal weighted, even in the best of times biotech failure rate is high, so index components skew negative, a
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Lots of great charts from $RHHBY's investor presentation yesterday with good perspective on Big Pharma R&D efficiency,
Roche estimates it has to fill a $7.1 bil sales gap from biosimilar competition by 2026...(1/X)
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$AMAM closed at $0.41 on 12/8/22, acquired by $JNJ today for $28 or a 6,729% return is just over 1 year!
$HARP closed at $3.29 on 10/12/23, acquired by $MRK today for $23 or a 599% return in <3 months!
$XBI
#JPM2024
$AMAM
Look at 1 year chart $1➡️➡️ $27+
From a penny land stock to a successful acquisition for $2 Billion dollars
💵
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Here's the final list of my Top 10 Biotech Stocks that Big Pharma Could Soon Buyout
The first 🧵gives you background on recent biotech M&A activity and the criteria for how I built this list,
See below for the 🧵on all 10 picks 👇
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
#stocks
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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Great chart from
@chartrdaily
showing the surge in Ozempic scripts for $NVO and quick rise in Mounjaro for $LLY,
Here's what sales look like... (1/3)
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
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Big Pharma has +$200 bil in cash and +$600 bil in deal capacity incl. debt according to Jefferies,
There's already been +$88 bil in biotech M&A so far this yr but here's why I expect deal activity to pick up in the final months of this yr...(1/X)🧵
h/t
@BowTiedBiotech
$XBI
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Wow I missed that, thanks
@Anders_Research
....
Perceptive's M&A track record is remarkable, they've owned 11 >$1 billion biotech buyouts since the start of 2023,
And they had a 47% stake in $LABP which $ABBV just bought today for $138 mil + CVR worth up to $75 million, so
$VERU see ya later...
People piling into what appears to be the most interesting non-myostatin muscle preservation play.
Now far beyond the ~$1/share zone where Perceptive and Adage were building sizable positions in 4Q23.
And we know what ownership by Perceptive Advisors
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Surprise, surprise, Perceptive Advisors has a 47% stake in $LABP, which $ABBV bought today for $138 mil + CVR worth up to $75 million.
LABP has an ongoing Ph2 trial for UC.
Big Pharma starting to scoop up beaten up names like LABP is a great signal for the rest of small cap
Perceptive Advisors is one of the top BioSpecialist investors w/ 11 M&A buyouts since the start of 2023,
The avg deal size is $4.3 bil w/ an avg premium of 73%,
In Jan 2024 they purchased 1.9 mil shares of $FUSN bringing their total position to 4.7 mil shares just ahead of
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And here's Baker Bro's top 10 purchases in Q4 2023:
$REPL $SERA $RVMD $ABCL $EWTX $CERE $TSHA $KYMR $SGMT $STOK $XBI $IBB
Baker Bros had 7 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $10.5 bil to the fund,
Here's Baker Bro's top 10 holdings as of December,
$MDGL is may favorite take over candidate on the list, they should get an FDA approval for the 1st treatment
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$MDGL looks like a good take out candidate,
First and only approved treatment for NASH with at least a few year head start on competitors,
MDGL will target 315,000 at-risk patients (F2-F3) that are already receiving treatment for NASH,
That alone is a $15 bil/ yr market
$MDGL 💡🚨
Great Long Term Stock but today on profiting taking HUGE OPPURTUNITY On that Repeatable Gap Fill setup
Also 300 Psych Level Gives full size conviction
30$/share profit there so far!
Voice Guidance
@TENETTRADEGROUP
Will keep eye on reversal when dust settles
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Big Pharma has to replace $225 bil in drug revenue losing patent protection over the next 5 years,
They've got $600 bil in deal capacity and here's where I expect they'll go shopping...(8/X)
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$MRTX jumps 45% on $SNY buyout rumors, shares now trading above my conservative buyout target of $50.97...but I could see MRTX going for >$90/shr
More details on why I think MRTX will be bought out soon in the thread below👇
$XBI $IBB
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There were 19 >$1 bil public biotech M&A deals in 2023,
On avg 6 biotech specialist funds owned 23.1% of the co. being acquired,
One Bio-Specialist investor had a stake in 8 of these deals…(1/X) 🧵👇
$XBI $IBB
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2024 should be another big yr for biotech M&A,
Last yr the avg deal size was $6.7 bil with an avg 82% return on 19 >$1 bil deals,
15 of 19 deals were for drugs in Ph3 or later incl 6 drugs that were already on the mkt,
Expect to see more M&A and de-risked assets this yr and w/
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Lots of excellent charts on BioSpecialist funds from
@TimOpler
's weekly but this one showing the surge in participation across 34 PIPE financing deals this yr stuck out to me.
10 of top 12 funds investing +$100 mil into PIPE financing this yr were BioSpecialist funds
H/T
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Seeing criticism of $RXRX adding +$1 bil in Mcap on a $50 mil investment from $NVDA,that's fine if you only look at today's news...
But this is a huge endorsement from top AI hardware/service provider that launched a drug discovery cloud service business this yr... 🧵(1/X)
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And here are the 9 stocks that Bain Capital purchased since the start of Q4 2023,
Bain bought 3.16 mil shares of $KYTX in Feb and 2.36 mil shares of $DNTH in Jan,
Bain also bought $MDGL last qtr ahead of the March 14 PDUFA date,
$ANNX $RVMD $XFOR $SLDB $SYRS $ACRS $XBI $IBB
Bain Capital had 2 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $3.2 bil to their life science funds,
Here's the top 10 holdings of one of Bain Capitals Life Science funds as of December:
$XBI $IBB
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Perceptive Advisors is one of the top BioSpecialist investors w/ 11 M&A buyouts since the start of 2023,
The avg deal size is $4.3 bil w/ an avg premium of 73%,
In Jan 2024 they purchased 1.9 mil shares of $FUSN bringing their total position to 4.7 mil shares just ahead of
$AZN's $2 bil deal for $FUSN (+$400 mil CVR) will return around $750 million upfront to 8 biotech specialist investors that owned 37.5% of FUSN:
Avidity 9%
Deerfield 8.9%
Perceptive 6.5%
J&J Innovation 5%
Orbimed 4.3%
Pivotal Bioventure 2.2%
Invus 1.4%
Sofinnova 0.2%
$XBI $IBB
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No megadeals in biotech so far this yr, but on track for record amount >$1 bil deals,
2 biggest deals this yr:
$VRTX paid $4.9 bil for $ALPN
$GILD paid $4.3 bil for $CBAY
Bolt-on deals likely to continue to be the dominant story in 2024, which means we could also see more of
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My Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout List:
#4
Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX)
MCap: $1,458 mil
EV: $1,113 mil
Focus: Neurodegenerative Disease
Stage: Marketed
Here's why $AMLX is a great buyout target...🧵(1/10)
*Not a ranking, All 10 are good buyout targets
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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272 biotechs could fail & it wouldn't really matter much,
It's the other 348 dev stage biotechs w/ 89% of the sectors total Mcap that really count,
Here's why
#biotech
investors only need to follow the smart money “core” biotech specialists...🧵(1/X)
$XBI $IBB
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My Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout List:
#9
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)
MCap: $3,852 mil
EV: $3,663 mil
Focus: Eye Disease/ Rare Disease
Stage: Marketed
Here's why $APLS is a great buyout target...🧵(1/10)
*Not a ranking, All 10 are good buyout targets
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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The first thing you should look at when hunting for the next biotech buyout is ownership,
If the top biotech specialist funds own it then the odds for a buyout deal are much better,
The next thing you can do is...(8/X)
Chart Credit
@BowTiedBiotech
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My Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout List:
#5
Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE)
MCap: $2,253 mil
EV: $1,726 mil
Focus: Neurology
Stage: Phase 3
Here's why $XENE is a great buyout target...🧵(1/10)
*Not a ranking, All 10 are good buyout targets
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
#stocks
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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Perceptive Advisors had 8 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $1.5 bil to reinvest,
Here are Perceptive’s top 10 holdings that account for 49.5% of their public stock holdings,
$ABBV announced a $8.7 bil deal to buy $CERE in Dec and $SNY
40 Biotech Specialist funds I track had about $29 bil returned across 137 M&A deals last year.
Here's a look at the Top 20 funds based on fresh capital from public M&A deals last yr that is ready to back to work in the biotech sector
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Well's Fargo put $RETA as one of the top biotech buyout targets,
Last week $BIIB paid $7.3 bil for $RETA at a 59% premium,
Here's the breakdown for the other 10 buyout candidates from
@WellsFargo
:
$XBI $IBB
Top 11 Biotech Buyout Candidates according to Wells Fargo,
Great infographic but it’s missing one key piece,
Which biotech specialist funds own them?
Let’s take a look…🧵 (1/X)
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
Image credit:
@Anders_Research
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My Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout List:
#7
SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX)
MCap: $1,745 mil
EV: $1,268 mil
Focus: Cancer
Stage: NDA
Here's why $SWTX is a great buyout target...🧵(1/11)
*Not a ranking, All 10 are good buyout targets
$XBI $IBB
#biotech
#stocks
I'm putting together my Top 10 Biotech Stock Buyout list,
I'll profile a new target each day...but first some analysis of
#biotech
M&A this yr,
Incl. $BIIB's $7.3 bil acquisition of $RETA, total deal volume of $88.9 bil is already more than 2021 and 2022...🧵(1/X)👇
$XBI $IBB
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Another Deep Track Capital owned co acquired today, $KYKOY (Japan) paying $16 (96% premium) for $ORTX, gene therapy w/ Libmeldy on mkt for MLD (rare genetic disease),
Deep Track owns 9% of ORTX...it's 8th holding acquired this year,
Deep Tracks top holdings 👇
Deep Track Capital has owned 5 of 13 public biotechs acquired for >$1 bil this year, incl 2.6% of $PNT that $LLY acquired for $1.4 bil. yesterday,
7 of its cos. have been acquired for over $3 bil and a 62% premium on avg,
Now lets look at it's top holdings now...(1/3)
$XBI
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Huge deal from $MRK, paying Daiichi $4 bil upfront and total deal worth up to $22 bil for 3 ADC cancer-targeting drugs,
Lead program is HER3-DXd which BLA will be filed in March 2024 for EGFR-mutated NSCLC ,
MRK making a big bet to plug the Keytruda LOE in 2028 👇
Wow, Merck is paying Daiichi $4 billion upfront to collaborate on three ADCs!
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As always, excellent analysis from
@andrewpannu
👏breaking down the numbers of why Big Pharma needs to keep hunting for blockbuster drugs through M&A to keep growing through the patent cliff 👇
Biotech Math (Pharma Edition)
Or, how the blockbuster model impacts everything in the industry
First, let's gather some data for the top 10 pharma companies:
It's clear these businesses have incredible leverage: a 3.5% increase in revenue translates to a ~8% increase in net
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23 of 83 private placement biotech deals in Q1 raised more than $100 million, most of which were clinical-stage companies
h/t
@Oppenheimer
$XBI $IBB
Private biotechs raised $5.8 billion across 83 deals in Q1 according to
@Oppenheimer
,
We're tracking towards 2020 levels, which is a good sign that the +$129 billion generated from M&A deals last year is being redeployed by biotech investors,
h/t Oppenheimer
$XBI $IBB
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Check which Big Pharma co's might be interested in buying,
This graphic from
@IAmBiotech
shows which Top 22 Big Pharma might have an interest based on the therapeutic focus of their current pipeline. (9/X)
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58% of VC capital went into clinical-stage biotechs in Q1 2024,
In Q1 2023, 47% of private investment was in pre-clinical biotechs,
5% of biotech deals in Q1 2024 already had an approved drug or were applying for approval,
In short, private investors are taking drugs further
23 of 83 private placement biotech deals in Q1 raised more than $100 million, most of which were clinical-stage companies
h/t
@Oppenheimer
$XBI $IBB
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Bain Capital had 2 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $3.2 bil to their life science funds,
Here's the top 10 holdings of one of Bain Capitals Life Science funds as of December:
$XBI $IBB
40 Biotech Specialist funds I track had about $29 bil returned across 137 M&A deals last year.
Here's a look at the Top 20 funds based on fresh capital from public M&A deals last yr that is ready to back to work in the biotech sector
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$VRTX acquires $ALPN for $4.9 bil in cash deal,
$65/shr of ALPN is 72% premium to the 30-day MA,
ALPN's lead asset entering into Phase 3 for IgA Nephropathy in 2H 24,
8 Biotech Specialist Funds own 41.5% of ALPN:
Dacheng Capital (China) owns 12.7%
RA Capital 7.5%
Paradigm
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Big Pharma spent $178 bil on M&A in 2023,
But Stifel estimates the top 16 Big Pharma still have over $500 bil in firepower for more deals,
And
@iqvia_biotech
estimates another $180-$200 bil in biotech M&A this year, so …(5/6) 👇
$XBI $IBB
h/t
@timopler
@stifel
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RA Capital had 5 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $1.4 bil to reinvest,
Here are RA Capital’s top 10 holdings that account for 54.7% of their public stock holdings:
$XBI $IBB
40 Biotech Specialist funds I track had about $29 bil returned across 137 M&A deals last year.
Here's a look at the Top 20 funds based on fresh capital from public M&A deals last yr that is ready to back to work in the biotech sector
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I think it's better to look at the likelihood of approval at each stage of development,
It's a lower bar for Ph1 and the LOA only jumps from 9.6% to 15.3% in Ph2 for all indications,
LOA improvement for a successful Ph2 and Ph3 is about the same (+35%) across all indications
Does this surprise you when breaking down by Therapeutic Area?
$XBI $IBB
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12 Biotech M&A deals in Q1 totaling $19 bil on similar pace with 2022...(1/2)👇
h/t
@Oppenheimer
$XBI $IBB
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$AZN's $2 bil deal for $FUSN (+$400 mil CVR) will return around $750 million upfront to 8 biotech specialist investors that owned 37.5% of FUSN:
Avidity 9%
Deerfield 8.9%
Perceptive 6.5%
J&J Innovation 5%
Orbimed 4.3%
Pivotal Bioventure 2.2%
Invus 1.4%
Sofinnova 0.2%
$XBI $IBB
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Arch Venture raising another $3 bil biotech fund less than 2 yrs after its last $3 bil fund,
Last yr Arch was the third most active biotech investor according to
@Oppenheimer
and it looks like it will be active again in 2024/2025
h/t
@BioPharmaDive
…the 20 most active biotech VC funds invested $31 bil in 2023…(4/10) 👇
h/t
@oppenheimer
via
@BowTiedBiotech
$XBI $IBB
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$BMY's $14 bil buyout of $KRTX is 2nd largest biotech deal this yr
6 BioSpecialist Investors owned 8.9% of KRTX
Also congrats to
@PureTechH
which founded KRTX and still owns 4%
$PRTC $XBI $IBB
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Here are Perceptive’s top 10 purchases since the start of Q4 2023,
Perceptive bought 7.24 mil shares of $IOVA, increasing their position by 60%,
$VERU $APLT $SLDB $SYRE $ATXS $VRDN $VRCA $FUSN $AUTL $XBI $IBB
Perceptive Advisors had 8 of their biotech holdings purchased by Big Pharma in 2023 returning about $1.5 bil to reinvest,
Here are Perceptive’s top 10 holdings that account for 49.5% of their public stock holdings,
$ABBV announced a $8.7 bil deal to buy $CERE in Dec and $SNY
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$GILD paid $4.3 bil for $CBAY is largest biotech M&A deal this yr,
PDUFA date for Seladelpar as a treatment for primary biliary cholangitis is Aug 14,
10 Biotech Specialists own 26.8% of CBAY, including:
Avoro 9.1%
RA Capital 6.1%
Perceptive 3.5%
Cormorant 3.4%
Medical
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@Pharmdca
Exactly, $CLRB just had solid Ph1 data for iopofosine in head & neck cancer pts, 64% CR/ 73% ORR in 12 pts, small sample but awesome to see efficacy expanding to solid tumors too... don't think this one should fly under the radar much longer
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Incredible stats! The odds are stacked against new drug dev but it's amazing what can be accomplished with scientific breakthroughs in this field,
my cousin w/ CF started taking Trikafta in his mid-20's and the doc said his lungs had never been healthier!
It's easy to get
A new study by the electronic medical records company Epic finds that life expectancy for people with
#cysticfibrosis
has soared:
+The median age at death for patients diagnosed with cystic fibrosis (CF) has more than doubled from 26 years of age in 2008 to 66 years of age in
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Exactly! Great list
@BowTiedBiotech
👇
GLP-1's are an amazing breakthrough but they're not going to cure MASH/NASH, especially the 15 mil at-risk of developing cirrhosis,
Think $MDGL will be taken out before the March PDUFA date for resmetirom
8 REASONS GLP-1 WILL NOT DISPLACE MASH/NASH
1️⃣GLP-1s not the medicine of choice amongst hepatologists
2️⃣10-15% of MASH pts come in on GLP-1s
3️⃣Will use resmetirom if approved in March $MDGL
4️⃣Sarcopenia with GLP-1s is a particular concern for MASH
5️⃣KOLs not comfortable
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$ABBV's 2nd big buyout w/in a week, $8.7 bil for $CERE
$45 is 22% above the close, or about 77% above when price/volume mysteriously surged over the last week... I wonder if somebody knew something🤔
$XBI $IBB
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$APLS cuts 25% of staff for up to $300 mil in cost savings. Will focus on growing Syfovre/Empaveli rev,
Q2 report showed $615 mil cash (+sales) was proj to fund into Q1 2025,
But burn rate was around $150 mil/qtr so cuts may make it a more attractive buyout candidate...
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OGSIVEO (nirogacestat) 1st FDA approved drug for desmoid tumors, $SWTX will apply for approval mirdametinib in NF1-PN 1H 24,
SWTX on track for 2 mkt drugs w/ +$1.5 bil in peak sales potential by 2025, several BP partners in the pipeline,
Looking like a great takeout
$SWTX's 2 lead assets could hit the mkt by 2025:
Nirogacestat may be 1st FDA approved therapy for desmoid tumors & we'll find out by Nov 27 PDUFA date,
Mirdametinib may be best-in-class MEK inhibitor for NF1-PN cancer pts w/ Ph2b data in Q4 23 may lead to NDA next yr...(2/11)
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