BowTiedBiotech 🧪🔬🧬
@BowTiedBiotech
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Daily Biotech Updates: Public & Private Market Updates, Company Building, Financing, Exit Strategies, & Emerging Science Trends | Current: Janitor at Biotech VC
United States
Joined November 2021
ADC History: 7% Success Rate over 40 years. 349: have entered human studies.190: in active development .148: discontinued. 11: approved by FDA. 348-190=158 either approved or discontinued if remove those still progressing as TBD. 11/158 = 7% success rate. REMEMBER WHEN PAYING FOR.
Landscape of ADCs by Dr. LoRusso. 11 approved ADCs among 349 ADCs that have entered the clinic (148 discontinued). Developing ADCs for solid tumor is challenging given antigens being “tumor-associated” not “specific” and heterogeneity of cancer cells among many reasons. #ASCO24
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Who are the largest #biotech investors and how are they doing (via AUM). 1. Baker Bros - 23B.2. Orbi - $18.3B.3. Deerfield - $15.1B.4. RA - $10.8B.5. Perceptive - $9.5B. Source: Torreya
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Biotech Buyout Basket (BBB) #JPM25. Building on @Andre_AGTC we took his list of biotechs with high profile programs NOT presenting at JPM and overlaid alignment with pharma R&D strategy and balance sheet flexibility for deal making. The thesis is high profile biotechs not
Revised .Many reasons company not to present on JPM25 but one I like is that they might be in a confidential blackout period .If, by any remote chance, a M&A is announced on JMP25, it would be one of the below.$AXSM $ITCI $ARVN $KRYS $VRNA $PRAX $MLTX $VRDN.
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If you are a biotech junky (like us) this is must watch TV. The @TimOpler breaking down the history AND future of healthcare. Amazing story, and super interesting data cuts. Enjoy 🎬
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Q2 Biotech Hedge Fund performance moving in right direction after slaughter over last 3 years. Q2. BVF: 39%.Cormorant: +23%.Samsara: +21%.Logos: +17%.Deep Track: +17%.EcoR1: +13%.RA: +11%.Fairmont: +10%.Boxer: +7%.Perceptive: +6%.Avoro: +4%.Tang: +2%.Baker Bro: -6%.Orbi: -11%
Epoch 33: 1H23 #Biotech Hedge Fund Performance. ✅Macro impact on biotech 2H23?.✅What biotech hedge funds are buying?.✅What biotech hedge funds are selling?.✅Q2 and 3yr biotech HF performance. (Link to subst**ack in bio)
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💰Obesity Market Peak Sales Projections. Saxenda $NVO $1.5B.Wegovy $NVO $14.5B.Mounjaro $LLY $10.7B.CagriSema $NVO $35B.Retatrutide $LLY $30.5B.Orforglipron $LLY $2.3B.Danuglipron $PFE $2.3B. Source: Barclays
🚨$60B+ Market Opportunity: #Obesity Therapeutics . Approved: Wegovy (GLP-1) Mounjaro (GLP-1/GIP). Up Next:. CagriSema $NVO.Retatrutide $LLY GCGR/GIPR/GLP-1R.Orforglipron $LLY oral GLP1.Danuglipron $PFE oral GLP1.AMG-133 $AMGN GIPR antagonist . Source: Barclays.
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Obesity update: where we stand post Cagrisema P3 readout. 1. GLP-1 / GIP / Glucagon provides best weight loss $LLY. 2. GLP-1 / GIP - data looks stronger than #1 triple G at week 12 $VKTX. 3. GLP-1 / Amylin is a close second & will have a place in the market, but not dominate as
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@c_constan For neuro? Just hardcode ‘project failed’ and you’ll achieve 100% accuracy, 100% precision, and statistically significant results (p < 0.0001). 🤣🤣🤣.
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☠️Q3 2023 #Biotech Hedge Fund Performance.From 13F filings. Baker Brothers: +2.25%.BVF: -0.10%.Deep Track: -0.96%.Logos: -3.02%.Boxer: -3.59% .Tang: -4.27%.Avoro: -5.72%.Opaleye: -6.99%.RA Cap: -7.08%.Cormorant: -8.65%.Fairmont: -9.83%.Orbimed: -11.43%.Perceptive: -13.57%.
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May #Biotech Hedge Fund Performance. RA Cap +7.8% (+1.2% YTD).Casdin +4.7% (+10.7% YTD).Soleus +4.4% (+3.4% YTD) .Perceptive +2.4% (+8.4% YTD).RTW +1.8% (+6.4% YTD) .Averill +1.5% (+2.6% YTD) . XBI +3% (+5.6% YTD).
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⌛️Tic Toc - pharma needs M&A to offset the upcoming mountain of patent expirations. Source: @sleuthinsights
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CAR-T quickly moving beyond Lupus for I&I. 🩸Lupus.💪🏼 Myasthenia gravis.🧠 Multiple Sclerosis .😯 Other
CAR-T therapy for multiple sclerosis enters US trials for first time $KYTX $BMY. 🧠 Going for immune rest in the brain.☢️ The neurotox issue will be interesting to monitor - BBB is decorated in CD19 and there are many cells all over the brain with it.
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📢Emerging Science I am excited about. 1. Targeted Delivery.2. Synthetic Protein Design.3. Beyond Cas9 .4. Full length Gene Knock-in .5. In-situ reprogramming.6. In-vivo CART.7. Synthetic DNA.9. Immune Barriers in Oncology.10. CART beyond Oncology. No small mol IYKYK. #biotech.
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@BowTiedShrike @ResearchHub @BowTiedBull This is the wildest thing I have seen today! 😂. Congrats @BowTiedShrike
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Jefferies: Most likely #Biotech M&A 2023. Nice visual on potential non-risk adjusted revenue value of each - the 🔑 factor as pharma is hunting for revenues. $ALNY $ARGX $KRTX $MDGL $NTLA $RDRX $APLS $ITCI $CYTK $ASND $VTYX $AXSM $PCVX $BMRN $FGEN
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Which Pharma Produces The MOST BLOCKBUSTERS. 1️⃣ $LLY 13 total; 5 acquired.2️⃣ $AZN 13 total; 8 acquired.3️⃣ $JNJ 10 total; 3 acquired.4️⃣ $RHHBY 10 total; 5 acquired.5️⃣ $BMY 10 total; 8 acquired.6️⃣ $GILD 9 total; 2 acquired.7️⃣ $GSK 9 total; 4 acquired.8️⃣ $NVS 8 total;4 acquired.9️⃣
Epoch 41: Building Billion-Dollar Drugs. 👉Biggest projected blockbusters .👉Building via indication stacking .👉TA blockbuster prevalence.👉Average time it blockbuster .👉Build vs Buy?.👉Which pharma does blockbusters best?. (l!nk to substa**ck in b!o)
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(1/5) Looking to start a #biotech ? Here are the most active investors by stage - Seed, Series A, Series B. With our commentary of course! 🧵👇
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☠️Q4 2023 #Biotech Hedge Fund Performance From 13F filings . Samsara: +53%.Orbimed: +40.7%.Perceptive: +40.3%.Logos: +38.6%.Cormorant: +29.7%.Fairmont: +29.3%. ------ XBI: +28.5% -------. RA Cap: +27.6%.EcoR1: +23%.Boxer: +22.4%.Tang: +14.9% .Avoro: +13.5% .Baker Brothers: +11.2%
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Hi Haters! $PFE #1 pharma in revenue and by absolute sales growth in Q3 driven by paxlovid, which rose from almost nothing in Q3 2023 (~$200M) to ~$2.7B last quarter. Other notable increases were from Eliquis (up ~$100M), Vyndaqel (up ~$550M), and Xtandi (up ~$120M) . Source:
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I have an explanation for this. Pharma is under such pressure to deliver revenues today to replace LOEs most of the R&D budget is going toward later stage studies vs. the early stage portfolio. One extreme position that has been debated has been that pharma should not be.
Very striking how “flat” (Ph1 = Ph2 = Ph3) all these pipelines are considering the inevitable attrition rates. Shows just how dependent pharma has become on clinical-stage acquisitions.
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The stage is set for biotech turnaround. just need the macro to support a line of sight to realized value creation from new investments. MUCHO dry powder waiting to be deployed. #biotech
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