Benjamin Picton
@BenPicton1
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Senior Strategist, Australia & NZ economics and markets for Rabobank. All posts reflect my personal views unless otherwise stated.
Sydney, New South Wales
Joined March 2016
A soft Q4 CPI print in Aus. Feb RBA cut now well and truly a live prospect.
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Excellent, as always.
The new MLA lamb ad has been released, and it's all about the comments sections on social media. What are your comments on the ad?
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Outstanding
Impressive effort by SA farmer Harry Schuster to celebrate Australia Day! 🇦🇺🌾🚜
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NZ headline CPI a little firmer than expected at 2.2% YoY. Consensus was for 2.1%, but the MoM figure printed in line with forecast and there was good progress in non-tradeables, which is encouraging. RaboResearch expects the RBNZ to cut by 50 in Feb and then slow the pace.
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👀
*CHINA 4Q GDP GROWS 5.4% Y/Y; EST. 5% *CHINA DEC. RETAIL SALES RISE 3.7% Y/Y; EST. 3.6% *CHINA JAN.-DEC. FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 3.2% Y/Y; EST. 3.3% *CHINA DEC. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.2% Y/Y; EST. 5.4%
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Really interested to see if those universal tariffs end up getting applied to beef imports while strong consumer demand for beef and (close to) the smallest US herd in decades is doing this to prices 👇
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@financefun72748 Dicey in my view. Futures market has it about 70% priced-in. Q4 CPI report the week after next and Dec retail sales figures on Feb 2nd are major data points before next RBA.
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Hours worked stronger again and participation rate and employment to population ratios back to all-time highs. Underemployment down. These numbers really say there is no rush for the RBA to cut in Feb IMO.
Another bumper employment number in Aus. +56.3k new jobs vs estimate of +15k. Unemployment rate inched up 1-tick to 4% courtesy of a 1-tick lift in participation. Strong employment confirms signal from job ads and recent downward trend in youth unemployment and underemployment.
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Given strength of labour market data (including job ads today), Trump policy uncertainty and acceleration in GDP growth (albeit less than expected) we still think RBA holds in Feb and waits for more clarity that inflation will be sustainably lower. Retail sales tomorrow important
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Two perspectives I would like to get on this test match: 1. Bill Lawry on Scott Boland’s bowling in the second innings 2. Geoffrey Boycott on Sam Konstas’ batting.
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Australia has had a bit of debt restructuring (at the household level) and currency devaluation of its own going on in recent years. Victorian government finances a problem back then as now.
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@DrCameronMurray ‘Residential Real Estate is a Negative Carry Investment With High Transaction Costs, Low Liquidity and Lots of Headaches’ should be a subject offered in Australian high schools.
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Yep. We have this debate about idiosyncratic tax settings without this important context and then make the classic correlation =/= causation error.
If the prime culprit in oz house price growth was cap gains discount intro 1999 (and neg gearing always been around) was that also responsible for many other countries house prices to take off 2000-2005?
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