Alan Snyder
@AlanSevere
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This is where you going to get your hurricane Season Info. Also a Avid Gamer. My Weather Youtube
Port Saint Lucie FL
Joined May 2020
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Here is the Total destruction of a Amazon Facility in Edwardsville IL
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Euro took a Massive shift to the SE. It is now More near Fort Myers then Tampa. Wow get ready for another cone Shift East at 11
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Beryl damn sure doesn't care that there is 30 knots of westerly shear around. It not only completed a Eye Wall Replacement Cycle. But it looks to be trying to clear an eye again
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GFS says let there be a Category 2 coming to Florida. Models have continued to uptrend even overnight.
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We are doing typical Aug/Sep shenanigans in Late June by the way. Beryl looks to have a fully closed eye. Expect a more intense session of intensification to start soon.
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If 2 wasn't enough in the MDR there is growing support for a 3rd one. What a year to track early season stuff
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it's literally only June 4th lol we just started the season 4 days ago
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I'll just leave this here no need to say anything. I'll let the model run do the talking for me. That is a 949 MB hurricane going into Naples in 5 days. no hype here just awareness.
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So yeah the wave train is coming to full effect. those are so big boys in there
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ICON took another noticeable Shift to the East now making landfall around Fort Myers.
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Haven't Shown off Ensembles yet this year. There is 2 Signals on the EPS watching for the next 7 to 10 days. One for WCAR/BoC ( YAY more BoC madness ) and a pretty decent signal starting to take shape in the MDR as well. MJO moving east so watch model trends with the MDR signal.
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Beryl is the little hurricane that could. Despite getting blasted for a few days by Shear. Shear has started to weaken, And we are now getting wrapping of the convection around the eyewall, And also trying to clear the eye again. We will see if it holds on to this through the day
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Euro woke up and choose a monster. 913 MB peak from the Euro today.
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We now have a category 5 on our hands according to Recon. When they found 157 knots flight level winds. which converted down from 0.9 nets you 141 knots. round that down and you got 140 knot/160 MPH Hurricane.
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Looks like our first Tropical wave of the season is coming off the coast of Africa This morning.
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This is unreal guys. Never seen them this aggressive in April before EVER
23 NS
11 Hurricanes
5 Majors
210 Ace
This is a nutso forecast for april.
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GFS a little less than 5 days out. looks like Palm Beach County as... You guessed it a Hurricane. We will see what the 12 Z CMC shows shortly
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ASCAT looks to have hit Invest 95L this morning. Showing 35 MPH winds. Not quite closed yet but it's getting very close to it, Give it one more DMIN and DMAX and we could possibly get there with 95L
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Here is the 6 Z EPS for Invest 92L and potential another after that!!! This was brought to you by
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For 2 Runs in a row now HMON has pinpointed on Tampa. We will see what the rest of the models say today. If things keep up we might see another shift in the Cone east at 5 PM
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Just your typical Nino June said no one ever lol this is more like late August then Mid June
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Freddy is now a Category 4 Cyclone. Look at that beautiful Beast!!!
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12 Z Euro is still on board with the bahama's Signal. Wouldn't surprise me if we get a AOI with this at 8 PM or maybe 2 AM depending on if they want more evidence
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this is probably the most western drive devlopment cone i have seen all year
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We may have to actually watch this wave that is just entering the centeral MDR this evening. EPS support has increased 10 fold over the course of the day. Along with the potential Sub tropics piece. I Will watch to see how trends set over the coming days.
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Looks like ICON has taken a massive shift east at the 18Z run. Lets see what the GFS has for us. ICON says Jamaica is safe this run but Grand Cayman and the Cayman Ilands need to watch.
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Welp looks like ICON has joined them. Can;t ignore now can we ? 989 MB landfall on central Florida as a Minimal Cat 1 Hurricane.
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looks like we are seeing a bit of a uptrend towards activity in the Atlantic Still 8 to 10 days out but it does show a 50% of TD chances on EPS.
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Along with Invest 94 L on the EPS map we still have increasing support for a wave behind 94L. Something to watch in the coming days.
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That is a Really big uptrend in the EPS guidance. Brought you by Weathernerds
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THIS IS THE LOOK. I don't care it will quiet likely become a Tropical Storm at this rate.
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And NHC is right with it showing signs of Organization. It got off a pretty successful DMIN. With deep convective burst popping off during and after said cycle. IMO DMAX should take it over the top. I think we will have a TC by sometime tomorrow before we go to bed EST
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Looking past Ian for a moment. All MAIN Global Computer models are hinting at the potential for Eastern MDR Development in the next couple of days. This does have Potential to be a long lived system by most as well. Where it goes nobody knows.
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18Z EPS is looking pretty interesting. We got more members going down below 1000 then the 12 Z Run did.
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By the looks of what is going on around 15 N with that massive convective burst. Don't be surprised if we now see North Tugs instead of South to South West Tugs
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HMON is the camp of the GFS with a system with a pressure of 974 MB going right into the treasure coast
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6Z EPS is pretty Solid this morning. This was brought to you by
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ICON with it's strongest run yet for 0/30 953 MB, And it has been trending more South and West as well. Will continue to watch this one going forward.
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The NAM is coming in a lot more South this run and SLOWER. if it takes the Nam route that just prolongs any effects this system has on Florida.
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Hereis the 12 Z EPS for today. This is obviously not a forecast so take it with a grain of salt. But we do got some strong members in there for 0/20. So EPS woke up a bit today. Also the start of a new signal behind this wave maybe ?
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CSU's July forecast is out and they are calling for
25 NS = Up 2 from last update
12 Hurricanes = Up 1 From last update
6 Majors = Up 1 from last Update
230 ACE = Up 20 From last update.
Very very busy season a head. Enjoy this 2 or so week break. We may not get another one.
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Darby Continues to Impress me. I would not be surprised if this was Already a Category 4.
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1003 now on the Euro Strongest yet. Looks like Euro is starting to lose this battle. People in Florida need to keep a close watch on this.
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BoC Signal is still solid on the EPS this morning. But Also something to watch is a possible signal by the bahamas. EPS is starting to like it and the oper model is hinting at it as well. Guess watch trends with it.
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Euro Season has come out today and to say they show a blockbuster season is a understatement. They are calling for 2 Times The Normal Season ACE ( 250+) 23 NS and 13 Hurricanes. We have seen nothing but uptrends since the start of the year. We will see how this pans out.
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We now have a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 98L
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This Tropical Wave is looking rather health this Sunday AM. With deep convection taken shape. GFS has corrected towards maybe a tropical cyclone developing in the short term. Models aren't to keen on it BUT i'm the type to watch real time trends in situations like these.
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If this was May and a little more South.this would be probably be worth a mention by the NHC. Kind of looking subtropical in nature. Kind of reminds of me of 01L of last year
#Tropics
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AccuWeather's forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out.
20-25 NS
8-12 Hurricanes
4-7 Major Hurricanes
And a ACE Values between 175 and 225
I Will have a video today on this a little later on this afternoon
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There is potential for Tropical Development off the East coast doing the late part of the week and into the weekend. Some models are sniffing some action out from the CAG vort piece coming through FL.
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WE DID IT first hurricane of the season is here in Hurricane Don. Winds of 75 MPH and a pressure of 988 MB.
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Welp Euro is now back showing a Tampa. I would expect a shift east in the cone at 5 PM Now
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GFS is on that hardcore drugs LMAO THis is one of those times where you can post it and make fun of it and not take it very series. whoever takes this seriously needs to find some grass and touch it lol
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Well ICON was showing one eastern MDR system. Now it is showing 2. The pattern flipped hard in september and it looks to continue into October.
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Called it we have a 0/20 spot for the SW Gulf of Mexico . Now you know we getting close to peak season when you can't go three days without a AOI LOL
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We are starting to get more and more hurricane members on the GEFS.
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ICON 12 Z is showing a weak TC going right into the treasure/Space coast of Florida in about 4 in a half days.
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Both waves have a Hell of a support system from the EPS and even more members that get stronger.
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It is a weird site so bare with me here. BUT this is the 18 Z CMC and it looks like it took a decent east shift as well compared to 12 Z
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yes this is within the 5 day time frame, And yes ICON did a legit 180 It is now rolling with the EPS,CMC and some what the Euro
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Look like another jog to the WSW for the center. Keeps moving more South then forecasted.
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The IR presentation may look really. but if you look under the hood... It is still very well put together despite very high share. Those in jamaica stay put until the storm passes.
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The Wave train is going strong now. only a matter of time before one sticks.
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CPC has just released today's Tropics Hazard Outlook and they have marked a 20% chance of devlopment in week 3 in the caribbean. Maybe a CAG sets up and we try to get devlopment that way. We will see, we still gotta a small bit to go
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Pretty damn impressive wave we got here in the month of May. You can see the Low Level flow with this wave. Obviously this one isn't it. But it's a good tall tale sign that Hurricane Season is pretty much here only 8 Days left
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8PM TWO is out and the wording for Invest 95L is quite telling. As they mention it is unusually conducive for late June, It is now up to a 30/60 and a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm could form this weekend. Invest 94L remains a 10/20
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Euro woke up and choose a hurricane for this 12 Z Run forms around the day 6 or 7 mark. Still 10 days out from this outcome IFFFF it happens this way.
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Looks like we got a 977 MB system making landfall in Martin County. on 18 Z GFS
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Here is the 6 Z EPS Ensemble run. There is a decent difference between this run and 0 Z run as they seem to be a little farther South and more of a west bend. All options still seem to be on the table with this one. Going to have to watch trends carefully the next couple of days.
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It looks like we had another shift East on the GFS at the 18 Z. Lets see how much more it has to correct.
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We may not get a break for too long. CMC forms the system and now EPS is starting to perk up on a wave 7 to 10 days from now. Something worth watching going forward as we should have another CCKW coming though by then
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Welp there you go. We now have a category 5 out of Lee. Only thing to do is to keep on going up until we have a EWRC i guess lol
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As soon as Don hit that 26C water temps it came to life. I would say this getting real close to a hurricane.
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It's a crime ( Not really lol ) to look this good and not get designated. We will see if Post Season will get it there or not.
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EPS still showing a decent signal for the 2nd wave. the first wave it is about the same.
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GFS for 12 Z Is now showing the Bahamas system like the Euro is. We will continue to watch trends. BUT where it goes and whatever it does. it will bring rain
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Looks like we got ourselves a 70 MPh Tropical Storm. This is over performing in a hurry
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Here is the landfall spot for ICON. Also most aggressive run yet at 983 MB
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the new CPC tropics hazards Outlook has come out and we are on the board for both weeks 2 and 3, Looks like CAG is gonna stick around for a while
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The eye is clearing out nicely this morning. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Recon found a Major hurricane this morning on it's first pass or two. If that happens this would be the first time in history we have produced a Major before EPAC and WPAC
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Looks like the EPS has a 75% chance of a Tropical Depression with out first wave. That wave should be coming off today. So we will see if Support sticks or not.
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92L INVEST 240619 1800 26.4N 71.0W ATL 30 1015
We now have Invest 92L in the Atlantic this Afternoon. This is the bahamas AOI. it has winds of 35 MPH and a pressure of 1015 MB. it has such a high pressure because it's pretty much dead on a ridge
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Not only does 6Z EPS have solid support for 10/50 But now it's trying to gain solid support for a wave behind that. Crazy times we live in
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Looks like whatever shear has let up just enough for Bret to conjure up a decent convective burst on the center. We will see how long this last and where it might go with it in due time.
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welp it already did the deed lol 95 L already has a closed center and could already be up to gale force. BUT we will see what NHC calls for at 2 PM.
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EPS still continues to show a Carribean Signal in the 6 day time frame, And actually goes on to develop later on in the run. Something to watch out for. Will post 18 Z Later tonight.
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With the Wave in Question already being off the coast for about 12 hours now. This has time to splash down, There is still plenty of Convection with it. With this being said EPS is still very much excited about this wave even after making splash down for 12 hours.
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Despite being VERY near a bunch of shear. This wave is looking pretty convectively healthy this morning. With trades fast as well it is impressive a bit. EPS was loving this last night. So watching real time is important.
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