Mark Margavage
@MeteoMark
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Meteorologist, Winter Weather Specialist, and Snow Storm Chaser. Certified Airman 👨🏻✈️ PSU 2008. Wilkes U. 2016
Northeast PA
Joined February 2013
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The August Preview of the 2024-2025 Winter Outlook is finally here! 🥳
Think of this as setting up the chess board before a match…
The players that will come together to produce our winter weather are beginning to show up, but the game has not yet begun!
#winteriscoming
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@crazyclipsonly
Who else had to watch this multiple times before you saw the snake?? 🙋♂️
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Probably not a good idea to try and drive through Hamburg NY right now. 37” of
#snow
on the ground will stop any vehicle. Don’t get stranded. Stay home!
#wxtwitter
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@CarolineHagood
It’s a land use and drainage issue. The outdated Sewer system can only handle a maximum rainfall rate of 1.5” per hour given the current level of development. If you eclipse 1.5”/hour as you have today, the streets begin to fill with water. There are 2 solutions: rebuild the
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Shall we call these, “The tunnels of Hamburg?”
#snowpocalypse
#snow
#wxtwitter
this is what it’s like walking around Hamburg NY at 9pm
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#Snowpocalypse
2022 continues in Hamburg NY where I just measured 51.0” of
#snow
#wxtwitter
Absolutely incredible!
@NWSBUFFALO
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I was just interviewed by a reporter from the
@WSJ
at my very first
@realDonaldTrump
Rally in Wilkes-Barre PA. She was interested to hear my perspective as a 21 year registered Democrat.
#MAGA
#NEPA
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Getting absolutely buried with
#snow
in Hamburg NY. Snowfall rate is around 5”/hour. This is a time lapse that covers 7:45am to 8:30am. Power now flickering in Hotel.
#wxtwitter
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If you are a meteorologist and this doesn’t get you excited for Winter Weather forecasting, you need to check for a pulse. Run after run of both the GFS and ECM are indicating a major disruption and stretch of the Stratospheric
#PolarVortex
#wxtwitter
#WinterIsComing
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Snowpocalypse? Absolutely insane snowfall rates right now in Hamburg NY. 5”/hour+? Unreal.
#wxtwitter
#snow
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8:40pm
#snowpocalypse
2022 measurement in Hamburg NY: 57.0”
#Snow
let up for about an hour but is now snowing hard as ever once again.
#wxtwitter
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I can still see street lights poking up above the snow! Not for long though… Hamburg NY
#snowpocalypse
2022
#wxtwitter
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What goes up, will come crashing down!
A Warm-up in October will be followed by an Arctic Outbreak.
#wxtwitter
#wxX
#winteriscoming
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Over 3 feet of
#snow
and still piling it on at the rate of 4-5” per hour in Hamburg NY. Here is a new time lapse of 1 hour, from 9am to 10am. Absolutely buried and I love every second of it!
#wxtwitter
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@libsoftiktok
Yes. I was going to vote for RFK, but seeing Trump get convicted on bogus charges makes me think he is the only candidate that can fix a broken system because he’s now been victimized by it. I’m a registered Democrat in Pennsylvania and I’m voting for Trump.
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If the CFS is correct, the "We're headed for another Ice Age" crowd can take a victory lap in January.
#wxtwitter
#wxX
#ClimateCrisis
#ClimateEmergency
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@Leg_baseball
Catcher initiated contact by blocking the base line clearly obstructing the runner. The catcher should be ejected for his own safety.
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BIG TIME
#PolarVortex
Disruption Looms! A Stretch followed by a SSWE is in play. Current model forecasts are for a +6 sigma warming event in the polar stratosphere by the beginning of January! Buckle up! January is looking wintery!
#wxtwitter
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@Rainmaker1973
The motion you see here is an exaggeration of what actually happens.
Remember, your brain sits inside your skull, not outside, and is suspended within cerebrospinal fluid which more evenly distributes impact energy. Nonetheless, concussions are still a serious brain trauma.
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End of this pattern in sight. The El Niño-like Pacific jet will come to a screeching halt in the second half of January. As it does so, a ridge will build all the way to Alaska…possibly providing cross-polar flow into an Eastern US trough at the coldest time of year.
#wxtwitter
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The CFS coming in off the top rope with a dominant coastal low!! Put the granite and chisels away, the forecast isn’t ready to be set in stone just yet!
#wxtwitter
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The 6z GFS has a lot of snow from 3 separate Winter storms over the next two weeks. Exciting times ahead!
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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#PolarVortex
Where we're at(strong and circular) vs where we're going(stretched and disrupted). Big Stretch coming.
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Some of the heaviest snow yet just moved into Southwest Lewis County NY. 11pm Visibility under 1/4 mile. ❄️❄️❄️❄️
@NWSBUFFALO
#wxtwitter
#wxX
#NYwx
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Well, that’s a wrap. All of the favorable shifts for snow have been completely erased. This storm will be a rain and wind maker for everyone east of Indiana.
#wxtwitter
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Highschool Track Season in Alaska is now underway!
📸: Bruce and Kari Rogers
#AKwx
#Alaska
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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👀🍬Eye Candy Alert 👀🍬 Today's 12z CFS brings the snow train roaring out of the station on Dec 8th! Cho Choo! ❄️🚂
#wxtwitter
@TonyPannWBAL
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👀🍬❄️💣
Holy Smokes! That's one heck of a snow storm on the 12z EPS Control Run right before Christmas. If that happens...there's going to be A LOT of happy snow lovers in the Eastern US.
#wxtwitter
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El Niño Expected to Completely Collapse 😢
The prospect of a raging La Niña returning by Fall means next winter will likely be one of, if not, THE warmest ever in the Eastern US.
In fact, I’m probably going to be predicting 0” of snow for the southern portion of my forecast
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Absolutely Puking Huge Snowflakes at 7:30 in SW Lewis County NY
❄️ ❄️ ❄️
@NWSBUFFALO
#wxtwitter
#wxX
#NYwx
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My ⚠️Polar Vortex Watch⚠️ issued back in November as part of my Winter Forecast, (valid the end of December into January) is now being upgraded to a
🚨Polar Vortex Warning🚨
For the first time, the EPS ensemble forecast mean has crossed the threshold for a MAJOR Sudden
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W.....T....F......
that's a -43F 2m temperature anomaly predicted by the CFS in January for Eastern Tennessee.
It puts the freezing line all the way to the Gulf Coast.
I don't put a lot of faith into the exact details verifying here, but it certainly gets my attention when
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ECMWF seasonal ensemble
#Winter
forecast is for a -NAO to dominate. We’re currently seeing a long term +PNA pattern in North America. If the +PNA gets together with this forecasted -NAO, this winter could be spectacular in the Eastern US. ❄️ 🚂
#wxtwitter
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The following 2 maps correlate the current Eurasian Snow Cover Extent to the upcoming Winter. All signs point to a particularly harsh Dec, Jan, Feb in the Eastern US.
#WinterIsComing
#wxtwitter
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The Polar Vortex looks like it wants to stretch again going into the first week of November. This would be the 3rd anomalously early disruption to the SPV of this young season. If this verifies, there could be a November
#Snowstorm
to track in the Eastern US.
#wxtwitter
❄️🚂
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Average
#Winter
Storm Track
The latest update of the monthly European Seasonal Model (largely regarded as the best seasonal model) is showcasing a Dec,Jan,Feb precipitation pattern indicative of an average storm track originating in the western Gulf of Mexico and running up the
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Today’s GFS is still banging the drum for a 6-Sigma Stratospheric Warming Event starting this week and continuing to a peak in the 3rd week of January. The consequences would be a enhanced risk for cold in Eastern North America for January and February.
#wxtwitter
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Meanwhile today's 12z CFS is predicting a return to the depths of the Ice Age. Don't give up hope!
#WinterIsComing
Help me wave the white flag....again.
Giving up on Winter 2023-24. Bring on Spring
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The crowd here in Wilkes-Barre is absolutely enormous!
I’m psyched I’m actually getting inside!! 🤗
@realDonaldTrump
#MAGA2024
#MAGA
#NEPA
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61F Below Normal
That's the coldest temperature anomaly I've ever seen a model put over the US.
That likely means it won't happen.
So what does it mean?
The CFS is reacting to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event which likely will cause a cold air outbreak, but we shouldn't
Today’s 12z CFS is brutally cold 🥶 in January… this is going to be a fun run to share 😈
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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10mb Stratospheric Warming Events, even minor ones, have preceded 2 of the most significant arctic air outbreaks these past 2 months. The forecast remains for a stratospheric warming event unlike anything we’ve seen so far this fall and winter. Winter is just getting started.
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I hate to say it, but I don’t see much hope for a snowstorm next week. Torrential rain and wind is more likely for most places. It’ll still get cold for Christmas and there could be some white on the backside of this storm, but the 3 feet of snow solutions are gone.
#wxtwitter
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What if it was all snow??
Anyone remember the Blizzard of March 1993?
If the Sunday - Monday storm were to have hit later in the season, it would essentially be a repeat of that Blizzard with widespread 1-3 feet of snow.
Instead, with mid-December climatology, we get a
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Today’s 12z GFS produced a major stretch and then split of the
#PolarVortex
exciting times ahead!
#wxtwitter
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If the
#PolarVortex
ends up looking anything like this at the end of November, you can forget about any warm-up in the Eastern US in the beginning of Dec. that warming over the Bering Sea may be the precursor to another Alaskan Ridge Regime. Keep an eye on it.
#wxtwitter
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Lined up like cherries 🍒 on a slot machine 🎰 (+PNA, -AO, -NAO)
#WinterIsComing
to the Eastern United States in December.
#wxtwitter
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The prospect of a Northeast US Blizzard being consistently forecast from 2 weeks away by the new A.I. Forecast System (AIFS) is both exciting and encouraging. I don’t know if we can trust the A.I. models yet, but this will be an excellent test case.
The Blizzard of 1993 was
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The 6z GFS wants to really get the Stratospheric Warming cranking. If this map verifies, there would almost certainly be an SSWE in December. Definitely something to watch as we get closer.
#wxtwitter
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I cannot remember being more excited for a
#Winter
weather pattern than I am right now. 🤩
MJO Phase 1 & 2 with a Major
#SSWE
and
#PolarVortex
Split...
What more can you ask for??
#wxtwitter
#wxX
#WinterIsComing
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Well, today’s 12z Canadian model certainly has a bunch of snow on it over the next 10-days and much further south than the GFS has been advertising. If this is how the 2nd half of January plays out, it’ll certainly be a flip of the script from the first half.
#wxtwitter
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Hot of the Presses: The UKMET Model brings a major snowstorm Tuesday
Note: this snowfall map is based on a 10:1 ratio. This is probably much too low of a ratio based on the arctic cold availible to be tapped. If everything were to work out as the UKMET depicts, actual snowfall
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I have been showing the GFS, but it is certainly not the only model showing a major disruption of the
#PolarVortex
here is the ECMWF Control showing a nearly identical scenario.
#wxtwitter
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Dreaming of a White Christmas? The CFS isn’t backing down on the cold and snow. Today’s 12z run valid Christmas morning is trying to build a mini glacier over the Appalachians for Santa to land his sleigh on. Snowmageddon 2.0?
#wxtwitter
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12z Euro has Bomb-o-genesis occurring over the Chesapeake Bay next week. That would produce an absolutely epic December snowstorm in Pennsylvania. All aboard the snow train. ❄️🚂 cho chooo!
#wxtwitter
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Santa Delivers a Gift for All Snow Lovers...
The 0z EPS Control Run.
It shows an even more extreme Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (
#SSWE
) than yesterday's run with a full split of the
#PolarVortex
and one piece coming to North America.
Are you excited yet?
#WinterIsComing
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A December to remember? Both the NAO and AO are headed for some of the lowest values seen in a long time. Good news for winter lovers in both Europe and Eastern N. America.
#wxtwitter
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Pattern Change as depicted by today's 12z CFS...
Looks like the Snow Train is ready to pull out of the station. ❄️🚂 All aboard!
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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#WinterIsComing
Take a look at the October 850mb evolution according to the CFSv2!
If this is correct, we're going into full-blown
#Winter
storm chase mode by the end of October.
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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The CFS is now the 2nd model I've seen to phase a Tropical System with Arctic Air to morph into a powerful Nor'Easter during week 2 of November...
Let's call it a low probability event, but interesting to see both the GFS and CFS show this kind of solution.
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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I’m not backing down!
The NAM just came in agreeing with the Mark Model. Snow Tuesday!
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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Snowflakes so big they cast shadows on the ground in the Tug Hill Plateau!! ❄️❄️❄️
#NYwx
#wxtwitter
#wxX
SW Lewis County
@NWSBUFFALO
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Holy Smokes! That is the start of a proper PV split around Dec 7/8th. If that warming over Asia works it’s way between the daughter vortices, we’re in for some exciting
#winter
weather down the road!
#wxtwitter
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On this Date in 1993…
The “Storm of the Century” was beginning to unfold.
For those of you who are too young to remember, it’s the only snow storm in my lifetime that hit on a Saturday and closed schools the entire following week.
I remember the winds were so severe behind the
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North America will likely see a massive expansion of snowcover in January.
Ice Fishing chances north of I-80 look pretty good in 2024.
#wxtwitter
#wxX
#snow
#WinterIsComing
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Woah! 😮
The 12z CFS sees so much cold air flooding into the Eastern US before the end of December that it puts snow on the Florida coast.
The Florida snow is not going to happen, but obviously the model is seeing some serious cold air getting into the US.
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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Last night's CFS continues the trend of indicating accumulating snow in the Northeast US prior to Halloween.
#winter
#snow
#wxtwitter
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The
@realDonaldTrump
rally in Wilkes-Barre is now filled to capacity!! They even filled the upper deck of this arena!!
#MAGA
#NEPA
#MAGA2024
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Lots of people eagerly waiting to see what December will bring. For what it's worth, A Very Wintery Look to close out November from the GFS.
#WinterIsComing
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I was attacked almost daily for over a week for forecasting a change to a colder weather pattern in mid-November. I used long range deterministic models to illustrate my ideas. Some people said that was “irresponsible”. Yet here we are, mid-November in a cold pattern.
#wxtwitter
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😮🫢CPC Getting the Dark Blue Marker Out in June!
This pattern would of been amazing in December or January if you ask me...but I'll take it in June for the reduced air conditioning!
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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A simple explanation of how the strength of the
#PolarVortex
relates to your
#Winter
experience.
#wxtwitter
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How to Build a Glacier...
Step 1: Use the 18z GFS
Step 2: Total up the snow to 384hours
#wxtwitter
#wxX
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Is it a signal yet?
No.
But both the CFS and GFS are, at times, both seeing extreme cold in January.
The numbers are crazy and shouldn't be taken at face value at this long range, but nonetheless, multiple models are signaling a significant cold air outbreak in January. Exact
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~2” after 30 minutes of
#snow
in Hamburg NY. This is gonna look a lot different by the end
#wxtwitter
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#PolarVortex
Stretched to the Breaking Point
Today’s 0z GFS is looking almost identical to yesterday’s 0z European Ensembles at max range. If they are correct, this has the makings of a SSWE. Good news for Eastern North America winter lovers.
#wxtwitter
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The Hurricane Hunters have deployed on a mission to release 10-15 dropsondes into our storm to get better data for the upcoming 0z models.
This is a big deal. Compared to the data available for the 18z runs this will be extremely high quality data. Given the difference in data
Check this out...
Air Force Hurricane Hunters are out this evening sampling the atmosphere ahead of the developing Nor'easter.
10-15 dropsondes will be dropped and will help our models 𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹𝘆 get a better grasp on the forecast.
@weatherchannel
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Siberia just recorded it’s coldest temperature since 2002 at -62C or about -80F. Something to keep in mind if cross-polar flow develops in the second half of January.
@judah47
#wxtwitter
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