A month out from the China-Africa forum (FOCAC), many African observers remain concerned that it remains deeply asymmetric, with the Chinese side exercising more control and dictating the agenda.
At the beginning of June, a former president of Sierra Leone told security professionals that they work for the people.
At the end of the month, the current president's security forces to threaten people working for electoral accountability.
In 1986, Yoweri Museveni took office arguing that Africa’s problems are caused by leaders who cling to power.
3½ decades later, his failure to step down from power is destabilizing the country he sought to liberate. Where does Uganda go from here?
The United States is set to release a new Africa strategy this week. Here's a look at China's Africa strategy:
1. Economic Engagement
2. Military Interests
3. UN Peacekeeping
4. Political Party Training
5. Soft Power
Term limits and conflict in Africa:
- 18 African countries lack term limits; a third of them are experiencing armed conflict.
- 21 African countries have a two-term limit; only two of them are experiencing conflict.
Military rule is not popular in Africa or being widely "cheered." According to
@afrobarometer
75% of Africans reject military rule and 69% prefer democracy to any other kind of govt. Coups are not being brought on by "popular" support. That story is a pretext for the power grabs.
The ten African countries with the highest number of forcibly displaced people also have some of the fastest growing populations and are among the least developed.
Read more about Africa's forcibly displaced population:
Every African country where Wagner has been deployed has also been exposed to a Russian disinformation campaign. In addition to promoting Moscow's choice of ruler, these campaigns are predictably anti-West, anti-UN, but most importantly: antidemocratic.
Meanwhile, Sudan's junta met with Russia this week as the economy and country they are responsible for deteriorates. They went to Russia because Putin has a clear track record of propping up isolated authoritarians in Africa in exchange for plunder.
I don't know if I can explain how touching it is to see this!!
Ukrainians and Sudanese have both sacrificed so much for their freedom. I'm sure they will be victorious soon.
🇸🇩❤️🇺🇦
Our latest map of Africa's militant Islamist groups covers all of 2018.
The biggest increase in activity came with AQIM's Sahel affiliates, while al Shabaab was linked to 3 times the number of violent events as Africa’s next most active group, Boko Haram.
Senegal President Sall says he will not seek a third term in 2024.
A move towards peace and stability that would not likely have happened without the Senegalese people and civil society raising their respectful voices on this issue.
#knowyourlimits
Term limit evasions are also directly linked to the surge of coups observed in Africa. Five of the eight countries that have suffered coups since 2015 had leaders who evaded term limits.
Not only have coups in Mali, Guinea, Chad, Sudan, & Burkina destabilized these countries & caused their citizens to suffer a loss of power/rights, but they haven't presented any plans, reforms, or competencies besides hoarding power for military elites. This is not a gov't model.
Here it is: our new map of disinformation campaigns in Africa, and there are A LOT—nearly 4 times as many as we documented in our map two years ago.
This has serious destabilizing and antidemocratic consequences for African countries. Click to learn more:
The gap between a legitimate election and an illegitimate one is huge: it is the difference between democracy and autocracy. And how we speak of it matters: It is easier for an illegitimate winner to seize/keep power when everyone describes him as the winner.
1/3
Countries lacking term limits tend to be more unstable. A third of these 18 countries are facing armed conflict. In contrast, just two of the 21 countries with term limits are in conflict.
Track term limits in Africa with our updated map and table …
Which African countries have term limits for their heads of state? Which have seen them altered or eliminated? Track term limits across the continent here:
Our map of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa is out: There were 3,471 reported violent events linked to these groups in the past year, a 14-percent increase over the previous 12 months. This reflects a doubling since 2013.
One thing very clear about the Sudan conflict is that Sudan's people prefer neither the SAF nor the RSF. Sudanese have marched by the millions since 2019 for democratic, civilian rule and there is every indication they will continue as long as military factions cling to power.
"In February 2016, [Tanzania President John] Magufuli stated that he would see to it that there would be no opposition political parties by the next general elections. His actions since then seem aimed at realizing precisely that goal."
The five African countries with the highest number of forcibly displaced people in proportion to their entire population are:
• South Sudan: 32%
• Central African Republic: 27%
• Somalia: 23%
• Eritrea: 11%
• Sudan: 7%
Another critic of President Magufuli is missing in Tanzania.
Earlier this year over a hundred Tanzanian civil society groups signed a joint statement condemning Magufuli's "unprecedented" crackdown on human and democratic rights.
via
@The_EastAfrican
NEW: Our latest map of violent events involving militant Islamist groups in Africa in the last 12 months.
Violent activity linked to militant groups in the Sahel has tripled over the past year.
@azelin
@warnjason
@ACLEDINFO
@CSIS_Threats
@ICSR_Centre
Nearly all forced displacement in Africa is a result of conflict & repressive governance:
• 9/10 countries with the highest forced displacement are experiencing conflict.
• 8/10 countries with the highest forced displacement have authoritarian-leaning govts.
Violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa rose by 38% over the past year. All major groups show an increase in activity—yet they remain geographically concentrated, highlighting the distinct local factors associated with each context.
Statistically, countries lacking term limits tend to be more unstable. A third of the 18 African countries with no limits are facing armed conflict. In contrast, just two of the 21 countries with term limits are in conflict.
While President Tshisekedi has established some independence from his predecessor’s capture of state institutions, the DRC’s legacy of opaque governance has persisted. Without external pressure, prospects of a free and fair election are not good.
Africa has seen a reversal in term limit norms since 2015, which is a setback for security and governance. African countries without term limits are more likely to:
• face civil conflicts
• generate displaced population
• have higher corruption scores
Guinea's coup is an unconstitutional act provoked by a chain of unconstitutional acts. It's getting harder and harder for defenders of autocratic governments to deny that autocracy breeds instability.
If you want peace, work for accountable democracy.
The unexpected death of President Idris Déby provides a moment of opportunity for Chad, if those holding the levers of power recognize that the "stability" promised by autocracy is illusory. The best path forward for Chad is one that includes all Chadians.
Africa has 34 presidential elections scheduled between 2019 and 2021. In roughly a third of these the issue of leaders challenging term limits has been central.
Our infographics track efforts to remove or evade term limits across the continent:
In the
#DRC
, questions remain. For example, “how members of Kabila’s coalition won over 70% of the votes in provincial & national legislative elections when official results show their candidate, Shadary, won just 24% in the presidential vote.”
The novel coronavirus disease, or COVID-19, first reached Africa on Feb. 15. With confirmed cases on the continent now rising at a rate of approximately 26% per day, African countries need to act quickly to avoid the worst effects of the pandemic.
Militant Islamist activity in the Sahel has doubled every year since 2016. Most of this activity is connected to JNIM.
Speaking of JNIM as a singular entity misses opportunities to focus on the distinctive features and weaknesses of its component groups.
Russia's war against democratically elected gov'ts goes beyond Ukraine. Across Africa, from Sudan to Zimbabwe, pro-democracy movements & reformers have been running up against regimes backed by Putin, Russian arms, & mercenaries. Their fight is ongoing.
Parallel vote counts that are independent of the incumbent candidate are a well-known and accepted method for ensuring elections are fair and transparent.
Threatening an organization that does such a count is inconsistent with accountable democratic governance.
Not content with rigging the election, the government in Sierra Leone is now intimidating domestic observers through the security forces
International observers should respond to this by taking an even stronger position
This is an offence in itself
#SierraLeoneDecides2023
#SierraLeone
APC called for "an election rerun within six months" and on "international partners to impose travel bans on a dozen leading figures in power, including the President."
Parallel vote counts that are independent of the incumbent candidate are a well-known and accepted method for ensuring elections are fair and transparent.
Threatening an organization that does such a count is inconsistent with accountable democratic governance.
West Africa is the region most targeted by disinformation—accounting for nearly 40% of documented disinformation campaigns in Africa.
Roughly half of these attacks are connected to Russia, which as we've examined elsewhere, benefits from the decline of democracy in the region.
The Stanford Internet Observatory's Dr.
@shelbygrossman
led the team that worked with Facebook to identify and analyze Russian-linked disinformation campaigns in Africa. We spoke with her about recognizing and combating disinformation in Africa.
We are thrilled to share that Ms. Amanda J. Dory has been announced as the new Director of
@AfricaACSS
effective June 20, 2022.
Please join us in welcoming Ms. Dory!
Read about the knowledge and experience she will bring to the Center here:
Given that an election just took place in
#Gabon
, if the military is genuinely interested in restoring democratic institutions, it could recount the votes if possible. If the opposition has indeed won, the military could facilitate a transition to a democratically elected leader.
🚨New Africa Center Infographic📈🌍
We aggregated & analyzed disinformation campaigns in Africa that have been detected & publicly documented.
#disinformation
#democracy
#Russia
Our findings (spoiler: social media platforms remain open attack surfaces):
9 military coups d’état in Africa since 2020.
Despite pledging to return political power to civilians, the military juntas have repeatedly extended their timelines for political transition, exacerbating the economic strains on the citizenry.
Remedies:
To address growing risks to its Belt & Road Initiative,
#China
has established 50 new security programs—ranging from early warning systems to infrastructure protection—significantly expanding the reach of Chinese security services across the globe.
More:
African military officers prefer western strategic-level training to China's, but western militaries don't offer enough slots to meet the demand, so they turn to China, which offers far more training opportunities than anyone else.
Protests are normal in a democracy, but relatively uncommon in Sierra Leone. Last August, protests were met with a brutal police crackdown involving live ammunition and 21 civilian deaths. This is something to watch surrounding next week's election.
We assess every African country's vulnerability to the spread of the Coronavirus according to 9 separate risk factors, examining which are relevant to initial and which to later stages of spread.
Click here for the composite score of each country:
Climate change looms large across Africa, with each region facing a different mix of climate-induced risks. Eight of the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change are in Africa.
Here are 5 cases showing how climate change is contributing to instability in Africa.
The proliferation of disinformation is a fundamental challenge to stable and prosperous African societies, and the scope of these intentional efforts to distort the information environment for a political end is on the rise.
Cameroon president Paul Biya has called for a national dialogue, but denied any marginalization of the Anglophone regions.
In this video,
@ChrisFomunyoh
presents the history of Anglophone Cameroonians' grievances, and offers recommendations for dialogue:
Islamist violence in Africa is still increasing, though somewhat levelling off—at record levels.
Most of this increase is coming from Somalia and the Sahel, and in the Sahel the greatest increase can be traced to FLM.
Africa's recent rash of coups did not come out of nowhere. One factor is obviously a lack of commitment to legal changes of power. Another is the marked decline in international pressure against the practice. World leaders need to
#IncentivizeDemocracy
.
Autocratic leaders routinely argue that their "strong [man]" rule is necessary for stability. But this is an excuse deployed by those who do not wish to give up power. The data shows that conflict is much more common in autocratic/authoritarian countries.
“Somalia needs about 50,000 well-trained troops if it is to take over its own security after AMISOM leaves in 2020, according to the recently approved Transition Plan.”
"That the entry point for Wagner’s deployment is often through an autocratic leader who operates without checks and balances domestically is far from coincidental. ...every deployment of Wagner forces in Africa has left a wake of instability for citizens."
The military junta in Burkina Faso is not popular. But it needs you to think it is, hence its campaign of silencing dissent—including abducting respected human rights activists and forcing them to fight in a conflict that the junta is currently losing.
By treating coups as unfortunate but accepted means of transferring power in Africa, international actors have inadvertently provided coup leaders a helping hand in consolidating their illegitimate power.
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Liberia
Madagascar
DRC
All these countries have presidential elections in 2023. See our annual elections review for the key issues behind them all:
Divisions within Libya’s civil war have been amplified by foreign-sponsored disinformation campaigns. In an interview with
@k_ramali
, we look at this environment and at the strategies that Libyans are developing to counter disinformation online.
Countries lacking term limits tend to be more unstable. In Africa, 18 countries have evaded term limits, and a third of them are facing armed conflict. In contrast, just two of the 21 countries with term limits are in conflict.
Assessing each African country according to 9 separate risk categories reveals a handful of countries—South Sudan, the DRC, Sudan, and Nigeria—at or near the highest level of risk in nearly every category.
Read explanations of the risk categories here:
Al Shabaab was linked to 58% of all reported violent events by militant Islamist groups in Africa (1,749 out of 2,933) over the last year, and 46% of reported fatalities (4,834 out of 10,535).
Given the strong opposition to President Lungu, and his party's repressive measures against free expression, today's election becomes not a question of Do the people want him? but Will he steal the election?
“We need African militaries to be autonomous, accountable, and respectful of democratic values. If they are not, we will constantly be starting over and will not have stability.” - General Mbaye Cissé, National Security Advisor to the President of Senegal
Of the 1.5 million Africans forcibly displaced each year, just 86,000 try to reach Europe. This is an African displacement crisis, not a European migrant crisis.
Coups are inherently antithetical to popular will because they remove the people's ability to choose their leaders. They may agree today, but if tomorrow the people want change, they become enemies of a regime that prefers power to accountability.
#Niger
Gabon's junta has released their "transition" charter. It includes: no timeline for a transition, power of presidency & minister of defense for Nguema (+ immunity for all coup leaders), and doesn’t bar them from running for office.
This is a power grab.
Comparing the 18-month periods before and after Burkina Faso's first coup shows out-of-control violence under military rule. The number of people killed by militant Islamist violence has nearly tripled, while the territory affected has increased by 46%.
Until effective response mechanisms are established and implemented, Africa will remain vulnerable to transnational organized crime and the threats it poses to security and stability.
"A good test for the health of a democracy, in Africa and elsewhere, is whether leaders leave office when the law says their time is up."
A look at the state of democracy in Africa by
@Fromagehomme
and
@Smith_JeffreyT
:
Chad is not a stable country. In fact it never has been, as we've been warning.
The lesson here is that ignoring repressive regimes in the name of security always ends up causing problems for security in the long run. It's time for a new approach.
Africa has a key place in how China plans to accomplish its strategic goals. Not only is it an emerging market and source of resources, China sees Africa as a willing partner in its ability to influence and shape international decisionmaking.
The Sahel has experienced the most rapid increase in militant Islamist group activity of any region in Africa in recent years—with events doubling every year since 2015.
Our latest Security Brief looks at the problem and offers lessons:
Egypt's parliament just voted to allow President Sissi to stay in office through 2030. In other African countries, eliminating or modifying term limits rarely benefits the people. A third of those countries are facing armed conflict.
Does having a "strong", autocratic leader lead to greater stability? Not necessarily. In fact in Africa, autocracies are far more likely to experience conflict than democracies or intermediary forms of governance.
We assess each African country's vulnerability to 9 separate risk factors associated with the spread of COVID-19, to help governments prioritize resources on the most critical areas in both initial and later stages of spread.
While there have been many coups in Africa recently, the best analog here is Guinea. In both Gabon and Guinea, the coup was an undemocratic response to an already undemocratic rule: Neither Guinea's nor Gabon's elections were remotely credible.
In Africa, ISIS remains most active in Egypt—305 of the 426 reported events associated with ISIS in Africa were in Egypt over the last year. Similarly, 77% of all reported fatalities linked to ISIS in Africa were in Egypt during this timeframe.
Conflict in Africa continues to be a major contributor to the continent’s food security challenges. Violence disrupts farming, livelihoods, and market functions, weakening household resilience to drought and other pressures.
#CAR
#SouthSudan
#Cameroon
Militant Islamism in Africa is not a widespread or monolithic threat. While their activity has increased, the major militant groups each continue to be geographically concentrated. This highlights the distinct local factors associated with each context.
South Sudan is now one of the main exporters of refugees in the world. After years of conflict, the young country now faces three possible trajectories. Professor of Practice for Security Studies Luka Kuol explores these possibilities.
With a dozen presidential or general elections scheduled across Africa this year, 2020 will be a benchmark year for the progress or erosion of democratic norms on the continent.
Here is our guide to issues worth watching in each: