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3NDeveloper
@3NDeveloper
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Real Estate developer who specializes in retail ground-up / value-add. Average unlevered IRR (no debt) of ~40%. Just sharing my thoughts and experiences.
Joined December 2022
@moseskagan The intro was very engaging. These short clips are probably very good for social media. Little nuggets with big impact. I liked it a lot.
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What a nightmare. The more common situation I've seen occur is the design team (e.g. architects / engineers) not incorporating 100% of the workletter, or deviating from it during the entitlement/permitting process. The latter can very, very easily occur and not be communicated properly upstream. Good tenants will work with the LL/Developer in these situations (so long as the changes can work). Others (e.g. Mermaid) can, and will, throw their weight around. It will get messy.
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Working on a build-to-suit drive-thru in SoCal. 10/10 site and trade area for a drive-thru. Am I crazy for doing a BTS? Yes, but the rent is well worth it. Sent the tenant some bad news (delays) 4 weeks ago - No response from the Director Sent the tenant some more news last week - No response again Yes - this guy is a bad communicator š¤·āāļø Sent him a new drive-thru deal I put into escrow a few hours ago - Response within exactly 10 minutes š
š¤£ - His broker (tough cookie) follows up 3 minutes later - Now I know I have great site š I always float sites to multiple tenants across multiple industries/sub-industries to gauge a potential project's quality, and use response rates / feedback as a barometer. Hasn't failed me (yet).
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I would like to share a framework that is often discussed within the Developer / Tenant Rep world. 'We're in the information business' Some of the older brokers literally think they're operating a spy agency - I wish I was kidding š I hear it all the time, but it is often butchered in how investors/developers apply it. Are we in the information business? Yes - we need to know: 1) All the deals going on in the marketplace (on and off-market sites) 2) Comps - who is paying what, and why did they pay that much? 3) Tenant AUVs - how well are tenants doing in different trade areas? 4) Which tenants are blowing out of leases they agreed to? Why? Who is backfilling those spaces? Why? 5) Who got promoted? Who got fired? Who is looking to land a job elsewhere? 6) Where are the target growth areas for major tenants? Can they give exact intersections? What is the max they'll pay in rent? 7) Which cities are difficult to work with? Which ones are great to work with? 8) Etc. There are many layers to what constitutes the 'information' in 'information business'. Okay. Great. Let's say you have all this info, how can you actually use it? The vast majority of information is 'noise', and much of this noise may come off as incredibly important information and send you down rabbit holes. A few years back, I knew that Whole Foods was trying to land in a submarket near Downtown LA, and I knew they would pay big bucks. I was also given the exact intersection they wanted to land in. This type of lead would make many drool. I spent 30 minutes understanding the dynamics of that trade area, then took the lead, put it in my folder, and never picked it up again. Why? It was simply noise (for me). Doing a deal in that trade area would cost me $50M+, and the juice was not worth the squeeze. I'll let others pursue those deals with institutional capital, and collect their asset management fees / promotes. This example is to help illustrate that not all information is actionable. What's the trick? One trick is the combination of a few pieces of information: 1) Out of all the tenants in the universe, who is willing to pay above market economics for that trade area (for whatever reason)? This information can only be collected by constantly interviewing tenants and their brokers, and building a database of information across 10-50+ tenants. 2) Where can I find the best deal in the market for whatever reason, whether it be a bankruptcy sale, probate, foreclosure / short-sale, etc.? #2 precedes #1. I have almost never been able to take tenant leads (where they're looking), and translate it into an incredible deal for myself in that market. Have I been able to put together deals that stabilize at 200 bp spreads? Yes, but I don't want those. The most successful format originates by finding the incredible deal first, then matching it with the information (tenant leads) that you had built up over years. That is how excess returns are generated. Time for a story. Not my deal, but a friend's, so I'm going to remove a ton of specifics from it. Friend acquires a vacant anchor building in a very, very tertiary market. It went up for auction due to a foreclosure, and had zero bidders - except him. Scoops it up for $450k. I thought he was nuts. Signs a lease within weeks with a strong regional tenant - $270,000/year base rent as-is. I can't imagine his commissions being greater than $135k, leaving him with a $585k basis. Friend knew this tenant was looking for space in this market, and it was a major hole for them. He gave them a market deal, but generated a 46% stabilized yield. Why? Because he applied the information effectively. Found a great deal, and paired it with leads he had in his notes. This is an extreme example, and is the best deal I can recall ever seeing. Blew my returns out of the water š
They do exist and happen more often than you realize.
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My advice to attorneys who want to maintain long-lasting relationships with Developers: Take that risk aversion and pound it to death. Why? Because it often translates into anxiety. A healthier approach is to understand risks, rank them, communicate the ranking/prioritization to your clients, and recommend solutions for each. Recommended solutions should target the heart of the issue (typically a few words/sentences in that major clause). The more critical the item - the more attention it receives. The less critical items may receive no attention at all (although I recommend at least communicating them during a call with your client and letting them decide). Experienced transaction attorneys are incredible at understanding the major pitfalls in a transaction, and the most likely scenarios by which their clients can get screwed. Amazing. Many attorneys struggle with communicating how to prioritize mitigating these risks, and often make every small issue seem like a big issue. Not good. I hired a new transaction attorney once and asked him to redline a lease based on his recommendations (this was a simple ground lease). The entire lease came back red. It literally looked like a new lease, and I was handed a $20k+ invoice for 1 round of review and redlining. What the actual fuck? His anxiety translated into trying to bubble wrap the entire deal. Redlines that were nice-to-haves, but made zero difference in the actual deal. Entire paragraphs deleted just to be redrafted from scratch. I don't work with him anymore. My favorite attorneys? The ones I can call with questions/concerns, who can effectively communicate the risks/pitfalls/solutions within a 5-10 minute call. No BS. No 1 hour explanation. Straight to the point.
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@ClarenceWongCRE @RE__Ricky @realEstateTrent @beneverard Use restrictions are a valid objection. The LL can also bid on their lease during the auction and compete with other retailers to get their space back. Money talks.
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@Tmac4real1 I'm really not sure, and just speculating. There are lenders who will underwrite for STNL construction loans, which is why I'm really scratching my head here. May be a sponsor issue related to other parts of their portfolio. I don't know yet š¤·āāļø
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@DietCoke82 These deals are yielding 8%-9% stabilized yields (based on the Developer's basis), so they have a healthy spread. The issue is likely a funding/cash crunch.
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@ChrisNNN In this market, it's a gift if another Developer pays them back their land cost + some soft costs.
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@I_N_D_Y The amount of pro-formas I reviewed that expected 4% cap sales (with 5% stabilized yields) is unbelievable.
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@franchisee12345 Not sure yet, but those costs should have been reflected in the negotiated rents. Likely a capital/funding issue
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@melissasavenko It was inappropriate, even if he was not recording because I simply have no clue whether he was, or was not, recording.
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@SideHustle_LP It was never brought up, and I never addressed it - just modified what I shared instead. My goal with him is very simple - to make deals, and he has specific relationships I need access to. Not worth getting into a pissing match over it.
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