djma
@0xdjma
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@alliancedao , prev: chatbot startup acq. by @appfolio , quant @twosigma , @uwaterloo
Singapore
Joined April 2015
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I got margin called for $1,000,000.
Broker said I could pay them $50 every month instead.
I said no way and immediately paid my margin call.
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Solana and Fantom continues to attract degens. I updated my map to add Fantom and Avax:
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You think $TSLA is overvalued?
What if its narrative shifts from cars to pure store of value?
Checkmate.
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Hypothesis: Celsius selling into perps, coin margined. Funding rate down. Basis arbers longing perps. Driving ftx open interest up.
On aggregate, OI down cuz liquidations.
Celsius pausing withdrawals because they need the time to buy back later/lower.
Hail Mary for solvency.
FTX open interest on BTC and ETH perps has been going uponly while aggregated open interest has been going downonly.
FTX funding rate on BTC and ETH perps are the most negative across exchanges.
Celcius sending a bjillion BTC and ETH to FTX
Discuss?
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I get cold emails every couple weeks asking how I got into quant trading and if I have any advice for aspiring quants.
Here are a few thoughts in that direction:
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Crypto will force you to actually think about and understand:
Money, currency, lending, borrowing, leverage, liquidation, counterparty risk, trading microstructure, front running, liquidity, dilution, monetary policy...
^ I just pulled random topics from recent events.
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Trading Story Time
Mid last month, I accidentally stumbled on an arbitrage opportunity: CREAM's yUSD-USDC swap was mispriced by a few %. Wow. Did I just find $20 on the floor? Yes. Yes I did.
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If you are going to the Miami Bitcoin conference, use a burner phone and burner laptop.
Take precautions. Treat it like going to defcon.
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👋 Hi to everyone who came here from Joma Tech’s interview with me!
My twitter feed is pretty personal and not very focused on one topic, but it’s generally about tech.
I’ll spend some time taking questions today.
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I read the latest Vitalik so you can decide if you wanna read it yourself.
Vitalik sees 4 places where crypto x AI makes sense.
1. AI participates in crypto games.
Very likely and already happening in some forms: arbitrage bots. Soon, AI participants in prediction markets.
The promise and challenges of crypto + AI applications:
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When I take Uber home, I put the address of the restaurant close by to not give up my real address.
Some data scientist somewhere is wondering if that restaurant is really really good.
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If you’re truly interested in finance, follow crypto. No joke.
We’re witnessing the re-creation of financial building blocks at a breakneck pace.
It doesn’t matter if you believe in bitcoin or not, because...
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It’s late for me but for ppl to followed me after I went on
@KeyboardMonkey3
and
@PepeXBT
’s space:
An easy trade in crypto that worked since I started years ago — buy when the market is liquidating longs left n right. And if you spot it early enough, sell into the liquidations.
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Relatedly, if an asset will 100x in value, it either 1) takes a very long time, 2) isn’t tradable, or 3) achieves 100x in a very volatile way. A low risk, high return, tradable asset inevitably induces fomo and ends up creating volatility.
Volatility in Bitcoin from temporary uncertainty about its future (vs. both political opposition & crypto competitors), not from its supply limit. As these uncertainties decline its volatility will decline until it reflects more the uncertainty in fiat than its own.
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MicroStrategy: “We’ve bought 2% of GameStop as a strategic investment.”
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I underestimated MEV bots.
I thought a tx that starts with a random shitcoin and round tripped an arb, would not get front-run because the bots don't have that shitcoin.
Nope. The bot front ran me by buying the shitcoin, running my tx, and then selling the shitcoin.
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I'll be mentoring the defi track at
@ETHUniversity
.
The program helps undergrads learn and build on the
#Ethereum
ecosystem.
Apply by 7/16:
You'll meet
@darkforest_eth
founder
@gubsheep
, and rising star/anime account
@smsunarto
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The no. 1 quality for data scientists who uncover business insights is intellectual honesty.
Most of the time, nobody is going to check your work. You’re the sole keeper of truth. It is your job to doubt.
And their managers must create a safe environment for debate.
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Machine learning be like
zz z z
＜⌒／ヽ-､_＿_
／＜_/＿＿＿＿／
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
∧_∧ IS MY MODEL
( ･ω･) DONE TRAINING?
＿| ⊃／(＿＿_
／ └-(＿＿＿_／
software engineering be like
zz z z
＜⌒／ヽ-､_＿_
／＜_/＿＿＿＿／
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
∧_∧ I FIGURED OUT
( ･ω･) HOW TO FIX THAT BUG
＿| ⊃／(＿＿_
／ └-(＿＿＿_／
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Token2049 fireside chat takeaway from
@wassielawyer
:
Don’t be American.
Don’t sell to Americans.
Don’t have American cofounders.
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Hi twitter! I'm a Canadian looking for something new to work on.
I'm a technical generalist with a diverse track record of success.
Looking to work remotely, in Toronto, or in english-fluent European cities.
Read on for more details. Calendly at the end.
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Crypto is dogfrogcoin monkeypic veggies algostable ponzis for degen casino enjoyooors on one side, and on the other side you have account-abstracted mev-sharing zk-intent modular chains scaling gigabrain researchers making sure the casino runs fair, smooth, and security is tight.
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Before the next bout of volatility, I wanna say this:
CT gives too much emphasis on up/down. Not enough emphasis on risk management.
Risk management is unsexy. It's 100 IQ. It doesn't get many rts and likes.
To make it more complicated, risk is personal.
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Study finance and economics to learn the mechanics.
Study stats and cs to automate your ideas.
Study history to learn from the past.
Most importantly, study everything because trading and investing is a liberal art.
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Don’t look down on html coders who call themselves programmers
on YouTubers who call themselves directors
on ipo winners that write 5k angel checks
Don’t punch down on early bitcoiners who held the risk
Instead judge them on how they use their new wealth to create more value.
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Defi held up real well. Everything is on-chain. What needed to get liquidated got liquidated.
In tradfi, you'd have multi day settlement periods, arguments about execution prices, counterparties going radio silent, and the fed stepping in to bail the too big to fail.
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Introducing
@0xWhaleSongs
, a proof-of-concept that lets you anonymously prove you're a 🐳 whale (or other on-chain 💪 flexes).
The server never sees the address, thanks to ZK 🕶️ proofs generated client-side in the browser.
1/
(whale1M): Hello world! Posting to twitter as a (small) whale.
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@MBTAWorkerbee
@novogratz
@MyFriendDahmer
@ANationMovie
Did u just try to roast
@novogratz
, fail spectacularly, and then totally change direction as if nothing happened?
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Who from CT is still tweeting? Those are your real friends.
Now that we’re all a bit more sober, we have one bear cycle to build with what we learned over the past few months. Things we wouldn’t have learned if not for the bull cycle.
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So at this point I’m too afraid to ask CT:
Does LP stand for lending pool, liquidity provider, or limited partner?
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Spending a few days in China for Lunar NY, I’m reminded at how badly some parts of the world want to own US equities.
Even the best Chinese tech companies are inaccessible to the average investor because they aren’t listed in China.
But surprisingly, it’s easier for Chinese ppl
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Celsius is prepared to be a forced buyer.
If the market corrects against such a hail mary, Celsius will be doubly fucked.
The market usually punishes such plays...
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I decided to MAP EVERY LENDING PROTOCOL under a taxonomy and share the alpha with you.
Turns out it's kinda long, so part 1 is focused on interest duration.
In the article I compare delta-1 instruments to lending, and there's a clear gap:
Turns out a graduate of
@alliancedao
's
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Omg, as a kid, my parents didn’t want to waste $ buying me Pokémon cards.
One day a generous friend gifted me 5 cards. Over the next year I traded them into a 1 inch stack.
Then, my chinese school teacher “confiscated” them and “lost” them.
Lesson: counterparty risk
If your first experience trading wasn't hustling the older kids out of their Holographic 1st Edition Charizards for 3 energy cards and a Diglett then you're probably exit liquidity.
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As a recovering quant, I share this cautious sentiment about data driven decisions.
Ways data driven decision can be worse than careful thinking:
The evolution of product decision making in the valley:
10 years ago, I thought we weren’t using data as much as we should.
These days, I catch myself thinking that we aren’t using our instincts as much as we should.
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I joined
@alliancedao
as a researcher. I'm finally full-time in crypto after watching it for over a decade.
I have idealistic beliefs, and I want to help crypto mature.
Crypto is dogfrogcoin monkeypic veggies algostable ponzis for degen casino enjoyooors on one side, and on the other side you have account-abstracted mev-sharing zk-intent modular chains scaling gigabrain researchers making sure the casino runs fair, smooth, and security is tight.
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For someone who’s not full time involved in crypto like myself, ’s curated list of articles is a huge win. Filters away a lot of the crap. That’s their killer app for me so far.
@QWQiao
@twobitidiot
@MessariCrypto
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How many person-millennia has humanity wasted on python environment setup?
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Coding in python be like... ok I’m gonna use this library function f.
What arguments does it want?
f(*args, **kwargs)
Great.
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Oh and finally, the ‘quant’ in quant finance is just a tool for... finance.
The business ideas rarely come from building a model. You build models to automate a business idea.
Related past tweet:
I like to compare ML to databases.
It’s a technology for you to use.
Many smart ppl have done the hard research work. You just have to learn to use it. Don’t reinvent the wheel.
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Token
2006: everyone has a myspace
2010: everyone has a facebook
2014: everyone has an instagram
2018: everyone has a snapchat
2021: everyone has a tiktok
2024: everyone has a ____?
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What's the current state of $GBTC?
Current discount to NAV is -38% (which means a repeg would net you ~60% in BTC). And $ETHE is -50% (repeg nets you ~100% in ETH).
It's a hell of a siren song.
Compiling what I know here. Hold me back from this widow-maker trade 🙏.
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If you're an optimist, become an entrepreneur.
If you're a realist, become a trader.
If you're an idealist, become an academic.
If you're a pessimist, become a lawyer/doctor/eng.
If you're a racist, become a police.
If you took this thread seriously, you're a fatalist.
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If we unlock AI through crypto, the implications are massive.
AI so far are centralized products because they are the result of monolithic projects where participants work together through top-down planning. The subprojects aren’t operating through natural economic forces.
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And that's how I found an arb, traded it, and stopped trading it, all within 5 days.
Thanks to that bot, I was able to just enjoy the rest of my PTO week. Albeit with some bitterness.
Because trading is not life.
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Memecoins pumping now isn’t retail. It’s crypto natives trying to front run retail.
Retail gonna surprise us with shit we cannot even fathom.
That’ll be the time to scale back. Not now.
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Institutional flow is good but don’t believe for a second that they will behave any better than we do.
Tradfi markets behave just as fucked up if given the chance.
On an aggregate level, we are a product of our environment.
I’ve been saying this since I joined CT. One example:
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Usually look at the 15m candles. Only trade it when it’s really bad out, high win rate. That’s when risk management is rewarded and greedy leveraged longs are rekt.
It’s basically selective / distressed liquidity provision.
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1/Lending Protocol Taxonomy, Part 2: Interest Rates
In an attempt to categorize lending protocols in defi, I wrote about lending duration in Part 1.
Part 2 is all about how do protocols arrive at the correct interest rates.
This article covers:
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Where's the RWA pmf?
USD/UST got pmf through demand-led pmf. So far, nothing else achieved pmf from this side.
I'm starting to see signs that new assets simply prefer defi rails over tradfi rails. That might be supply-led pmf.
Old assets are harder because of inertia. For
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@NftCelestials
@NFTmachine
A single cube would make the most glorious Twitter post but it’s probably lame unprocessed stuff.
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I like to compare ML to databases.
It’s a technology for you to use.
Many smart ppl have done the hard research work. You just have to learn to use it. Don’t reinvent the wheel.
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Where Whales Went to Work in H2 2023
How up and coming protocols rode the narratives waves of T-bills, L2 staking, and re-staking.
And for the keen eyed reader, there's a 30%+ APR opportunity on ETH in there...
👇
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When I was an undergrad, I interned at a fund that levered way up on the Swiss franc carry trade.
That trade was not true alpha. Everybody knew about it. It was picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.
And of course one day it blew up and they lost years of profit.
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.
@SBF_Alameda
should get some plants in the office, and somebody to care for them. It’s +EV with very little risk.
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Crypto's remote-first vibe seemed cool at first.
Fighting the suits, armed with nothing but our underwear and a keyboard. Reshaping finance from our couches. Sending wagmis and gms to anons.
But now, the pixelated faces on Zoom are starting to look like characters from a
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1/Starting an opinionated log of random observations between living in Singapore 🇸🇬 vs big US city 🇺🇸.
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Every time I consider selling $GMX, I go to their stats page and I end up not selling…
Have to keep an eye on
@GMX_IO
here. While all of DeFi is in shambles, GMX continues to show impressive sustained performance in users, AUM, volume/fees, open interest, and utilization of capital. Best place to swap between major assets on Arbitrum and exposure to the Arb airdrop
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Calling it now:
As covid-19 spreads, China makes huge investments in remote work / remote education technology, and leaps ahead of everybody. Ultimately, they perfect VR tech to finally allow virtual worlds to be built.
Few years later, a virtual world declares independence.
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Thoughts on the idea of putting loyalty programs onchain:
Why crypto? "because it's efficient", "want to own my points", "incorruptible", "reuse the infra", are all bad reasons to use crypto
Instead: what new behaviors can crypto enable?
Types of assets: nft or erc20,
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Crypto’s only use case, speculation, has been outranked.
Might as well dump it all.
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A parallel I noticed between trading and management:
Loss aversion makes traders hold onto or even double down on losses.
In mgmt, loss aversion makes people avoid confrontation and feedback, hoping that things get better.
Cut losses early. Talk it out ASAP.
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.
@chamath
saying it right!
Yes: bailout for individuals, bailout for national infrastructure, equity stake bailout for infrastructural companies
No: bailout for equity holders, blanket bailout for companies. These are wealth transfers to the rich.
The U.S. shouldn’t bail out billionaires and hedge funds during the coronavirus pandemic, Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya says. “Who cares? Let them get wiped out.”
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Flew the longest commercial flight SIN-NYC, in economy, on Valentine's day, to attend our most recent cohort launch in NYC.
No regrets.
Introducing the Alliance HQ
Over the last three years, Alliance has accelerated 12 cohorts, 200+ startups, and built a community of more than 500 founders.
While we have organized a series of offsites, our founders and mentors have primarily interacted virtually. Today, that
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I feel the angst from watching AI progress is not the terminator kind of angst, but it’s from knowing that even if you are the 1%, or the 0.1%, obsolescence is catching up to you.
Despite having all needs taken care of for life, fewer and fewer will ever be able to make
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I can only strive to write with the clarity and conciseness of these c-levels.
It reiterates how clear thinking and good writing go hand in hand.
Mark Zuckerberg and CFO David Ebersman debate acquisition strategy
February 27, 2012
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Life is a journey to remove self bias.
A newborn knows nothing but themself.
Travel 1000 miles to see beyond the village.
Read 1000 books to see beyond the contemporary.
- some ancient Chinese proverb rehashed by my wife
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You truly learn from a book when your personal circumstances are ready for those lessons.
When it happens, it’s magical.
The worst advice I see otherwise-smart people repeating is that 'most books should be blog posts.' A book is a compression of a decade of insights – even that first compression is lossy and tenuous.
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How can I call myself a trader if I haven’t even touched $GME yet... shame
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By spending 50% of your time on software engineering fundamentals. And the other 50% building a product that leverages ML.
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A good CTO allows many shots at the goal.
A good CEO aims and recalibrates well.
Tons of talk on CT about
@fantasy_top_
,
@pumpdotfun
&
@tensor_hq
, among other
@alliancedao
startups.
In the spirit of 'study this', I've been reflecting about what those teams have in common after following them closely over the past year.
1. Technical founders. Each of those
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When you have a kid, the best you can do is trade money for time with your child.
Hire help around the house. Cleaning, shopping, cooking, routine things you can give up control.
Childcare is not routine. Full of little problems for you to notice and solve.
(Pic at the end)
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My resume rule of thumb: only the last 20% of your life is relevant experience.
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Beware of dogmatic senior employees
They live in the past
Within their comfort zone
They have 5x the same 2 years of experience, rather than 10 years of experience
What they sell is prepackaged
If you know exactly what you need, great
Otherwise beware
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Smart contracts mainly create shared value for the world.
That value created cannot be hoarded by the contract authors. (see Thiel on value capture)
A thread... 1/8
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It’s easy to make fun of Luna now when it’s down.
While many were passive aggressively subtweeting,
@Galois_Capital
was sticking its head out. Vulnerable to the tyranny of the mob.
Whether successful or not, remember them. Zeus, Melvin, Soros, Burry, and many others who dared.
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I recently joined
@alliancedao
on the week that ALL10 graduated.
When I attended demo day, watching the high quality presentations, I had felt fomo for not having joined earlier to get to know those teams.
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